It’s time to set the pigskin aside and start thinking horsehide. Oh, there’s still the matter of a few minor football games to play, but your Fantasy attention had better get turned toward baseball. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with watching the Super Bowl with a cold brew in one hand and some early Fantasy baseball rankings in the other.
In the coming weeks we’ll take an early look at the Fantasy landscape of 2012. In this first installment, we’ll begin our trip around the diamond with a look at the catcher position.
It’s always been a case of the haves and have-nots as far as catchers go, but the last few years have seen the disparity between the top and bottom options get a lot closer. Getting a top catcher is nice, but may not always be the best value with their draft cost.
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The chart at the right lists the Top 50 catchers, broken down into tiers. Below I’ll hit on a few from each tier that stand out for one reason or another.
TIER ONE
THE SAFE ROUTE
Brian McCann and Victor Martinez do not put up Mike Piazza numbers, but they do offer reliable production that you can pretty much bank on. Martinez has seen a power decline in recent years, but could still crank out 20 long balls to go with his .300-plus average. McCann has hit between 21 and 24 HRs in five of the last six years and has shown the ability to hit for a solid average. With these two, we know the ceiling. It’s pretty safe to project numbers similar to the last few years, but the odds of either doing much more are pretty slim.
THE UPSIDE PLAY
Mike Napoli and Carlos Santana provided top-shelf numbers last year, but they come with some pretty big questions. Napoli cranked out 30 homers in just 369 at-bats and put up a career best .320 average. Let’s not forget, though, that as recently as 2010 Napoli posted a .238 batting average. The ballpark and lineup in Texas help, but there’s no way he hits above .300 again. On the positive side, it’s hard to see the Rangers limiting his playing time as they did in the first half of last season. Napoli got just 136 ABs in the first 81 games, but then doubled that with 233 in the second half when he popped 20 HRs. Needless to say, with all these variables, Napoli enters 2012 as somewhat of a wildcard.
Santana is the one catcher who just might approach those Mike Piazza numbers someday. After losing much of his rookie year to a gruesome knee injury, Santana’s second year started slow. His power picked up, though, and he finished the year with 27 bombs. His .239 batting average left something to be desired, though. Not to fear, there is every reason to believe Santana can hit for a solid average. This is a player that hit over .300 in three of his last four minor league seasons. The slight risk of Santana’s batting average is well worth the chance that he really takes off in year three.
THE INJURY RISKS
Buster Posey and Joe Mauer could easily be the two best catchers in Fantasy, but there are way too many question marks. For Mauer, it’s all health. The back issues don’t seem to be going away and he’s also got a cranky knee. Add to that, the fact that his health and new home park make the 28 HRs he hit in 2009 a distant memory. For the first time, Mauer may fall far enough in drafts to be worth the risk.
Posey will not go cheap. In the mocks that I’ve participated in so far, even experienced owners are acting as if 2011 never happened. I’m willing to ignore the injury and assume he’s fully healthy, and I’m still not on board with where he’s being drafted. Yes, he had an explosive entry into the majors, but the 18 HRs in 406 at-bats was unexpected. Now look at his four long balls in 45 games (162 ABs) and there is every reason to doubt his power. People are paying him as if he was Joe Mauer when it was good to be Mauer. Instead, they’re likely to get a .285 hitter with 15 HR power… and he’s coming off a broken ankle. I’d be happy to have Posey, just not where he’s being drafted.
TIER TWO
THE UP AND COMERS
Alex Avila and Matt Wieters aren’t new to the party, but they celebrated a lot more in 2011 than most people realize. Avila may not get the attention that teammate Victor Martinez gets, but his numbers were nearly as valuable. Repeating his .290 batting average will be a challenge, but Avila should approach his 18 homers and 82 RBIs of 2011. Better yet, the average Fantasy player barely recognizes the name.
Wieters has the premium pedigree, but that just means more people view him as a disappointment, if not an outright flop. He’s turned into somewhat of a forgotten man after seasons of nine and 11 HRs and some mediocre batting average numbers. Something changed in the second half of 2011, though. Wieters parked 14 HRs after the All-Star break, but by that time, half of Fantasy nation had turned their attention to Football. He may never be the elite level catcher that he was supposed to be, but there are signs that he is at least turning in the right direction. Wieters and Avila are unlikely to jump to the top of the catcher rankings, but they might just be the best values at the position.
Miguel Montero rightfully belongs in Tier Two with Wieters and Avila, but it’s hard to see him topping a solid 2011 campaign. He’s 28 and seems to have hit his peak. Montero offers the reliability of McCann and VMart, but on a lower level.
TIER THREE
Once you get past Montero, you get to a large group of catchers with limited upside and major holes in their offensive games. This is where you have to pick your poison. You can go with safe batting average types like Yadier Molina and Jonathan Lucroy, or you can look for a little more power in Geovany Soto or J.P. Arencibia. Since you’re making these picks in the latter parts of your draft, you might base your choice on the makeup of the rest of your roster. If you have other batting average issues go with the safer picks. If you need the power, go that direction.
At this point, I also try to go younger with a catcher that might have some room for growth. Last year that was Avila, and we saw what happened. The obvious choice here might be Devin Mesoraco, but beware; he’s already getting a ton of hype. He seems to be everyone’s sleeper and he likely won’t have the job to himself. I like his future, but for this year, the hype is out of control. A better investment might be Wilson Ramos, who quietly hit 15 HRs last year. He’s just 24 and has shown that he can hit for a solid average too.
TIER FOUR
It starts getting a little scary here. You might be enticed by the Nick Hundley, John Buck, Chris Iannetta trifecta, but beware that their decent power numbers come with a serious batting average risk. They can “undo” much of the good work done by the rest of your offense. It might be better to settle for the empty batting averages of an A.J. Pierzynski or Carlos Ruiz.
TIER FIVE
Once you’ve waited this long, you’re just looking at bats that won’t hurt you. They add nothing in power or speed, but they can generally hit for an acceptable batting average.
TIER SIX
Most of the time in Fantasy Baseball you’re trying to get as many at-bats as you can; not so in mono-leagues when you get to this level of catchers. If you’re gonna get a catcher at this point, it’s better to roster some kind of upside rather than a Matt Treanor, who may get plenty of ABs, but has proven he will hit .220 with no power. This year, think about guys like Wilin Rosario, Tyler Flowers, and Robinson Chirinos. They may not play at all, but if they do, they have a chance to provide positive numbers. Even a player like John Baker, who will play very little but wields a decent bat, is better than grabbing the next Jeff Mathis.
Though it’s nice to have great catchers, position scarcity is not a huge issue in mixed leagues this year. You can find two catchers who will have positive contributions without overpaying for Tier One. With the injury-filled nature of the position, it can be a risky proposition make big investments. Minimize the risk and maximize the value.
In the next installment, we’ll tackle the big boppers at first base. This year they come with some pretty big questions of their own. While you’re patiently waiting for Rotodaddy’s next offering, relive some of the NFL season with NFL Rewind. In case you hadn’t heard there’s a big hubub about this Tebow character. With NFL Rewind you can go back and see how it all came to be. Better still with this link you can save up to 25 percent if you enter the promo code ROTOEXPERTS.
Doug Anderson is the Executive Editor at RotoExperts.com. His work has appeared on Yahoo!, SI.com, NFL.com, as well as gracing the pages of USA Today’s Fantasy Baseball Magazines.
Wanna climb in the box and talk baseball? E-mail Doug at rotodaddy@rotoexperts.com.
