Week 7 Schedule Analysis
Reminder: helping you learn poker terms while applying them to the schedule breakdown. Domination: any situation where one hand is highly likely to beat another; Favorite: a hand matched against another with the odds advantage; Underdog: a player with a smaller chance to win; Rags: low-valued and presumably worthless cards; Drawing Dead: playing a drawing hand that will lose even if successful
FIVE GAMES
None
Dominant
As will be the norm all season, teams with five games are the best bets every week.
Unfortunately, there are no teams with five games this week.
FOUR GAMES
ATL, BOS, CHI, CLE, DEN, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MEM, MIA, MIL, MIN, NJ, NY, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHO, POR, SAC, TOR, UTA, WSH
Favorites
Thunder (SOS: 3.8) – Outside of Kendrick Perkins getting posterized and sound-bite-ized(?) from Blake Griffin’s slam, things have been mostly good for the Thunder. So is their schedule this week with the easiest four-game schedule, which includes two of the worst defenses in the league: Golden State and Sacramento. The one problem is this team is three deep and then questionable. Serge Ibaka warrants use based on his blocking ability alone – after those 10 on Feb. 1, how could we not call him Serge I-Blocka? – but outside of him, Nick Collison and Daequan Cook are too unreliable to warrant use outside of deep leagues.
All In: Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden
Sorry Mr. Haywood, but all Serge does is block shots. Photo Credit robtast1c
Rockets (SOS: 4.3) – Three of Houston’s four games are against teams in the Top 10 for most PPG allowed. While Luis Scola has been disappointing, this is his chance to string together some nice games. Consider selling high afterwards, as his decreased playing time won’t help his long-term value. Chandler Parsons has slipped back into being a matchup play, Samuel Dalembert continues to be a rebounding and blocking machine, and Chase Budinger had quietly put together three straight quality games before disappearing against the Spurs in just nine minutes. See what happens against the Suns on Feb. 3 before grabbing him.
All In: Kevin Martin, Kyle Lowry (for one more week, teetering on not being must-start)
Bulls (SOS: 4.6) – The Chicago Roses are a tough bunch to figure out, but a relatively soft week (even though all on the road) should help you find value beyond ol’ Derrick Rose. With Rip Hamilton out (again) for some time and Luol Deng still letting his wrist injury (torn ligament) heal, there are plenty of minutes for others to grab. The most interesting is Kyle Korver. If you need points and threes, look no further. He can struggle with his shot at times, but with 35-plus minutes, he’ll knock down a couple threes every time. Ronnie Brewer is of more use if you need rebounds and steals, but he’s never been a quality shooter. Of course, both players’ values disappear if Deng returns, so keep tabs. Joakim Noah looks to have shaken the early-season rust, and Carlos Boozer is as up-and-down as they come, but this week he should have at least two good games.
All In: Rose
Underdogs
Lakers (SOS: 7.9) – Well, this couldn’t get much easier. The Lakers are already a team with just three obvious options; we know that. Beyond them, Matt Barnes may have occasional matchup value, but the Lakers have the worst schedule of any team this week. All four teams allow 95.1 PPG or less and two of them (Boston, Philadelphia) give up less than 88.0 PPG. Stick with the main three, and in case you missed it last week, try to move Pau Gasol before his value drops much further.
All In: Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum, Gasol
Jazz (SOS: 6.8) – The Jazz don’t have things much easier than the Lakers with three road games and the most forgiving defense being the Thunder. As a result, you should avoid the frustrating Gordon Hayward and Josh Howard as much as possible. Al Jefferson returned on Feb. 1 and looked good, so that ends Derrick Favors’ time in the sun. C.J. Miles has been playing well enough for deep leaguers in need of points and threes. Devin Harris is losing time to Earl Watson, and the situation will be a headache all year long.
All In: Paul Millsap, Jefferson
Raptors (SOS: 6.6) – Remember how Amir Johnson was supposed to see more playing time with Andrea Bargnani out? Yeah, so much for that. There are just too many pieces on this team with none have any consistency or clear picture of their use. For reference, that group includes Amir, James Johnson, Linas Kleiza, Gary Forbes and Ed Davis. Just save yourself the misery and avoid them all, especially in a tough week. Jose Calderon has enough value with his assists and occasional threes to have value in rather deep leagues. Jarryd Bayless’ value just took a hit as he’s back to coming off the bench. Nevertheless, after DeMar DeRozan, he’s still the next-best option. This team is a mess…
All In: DeRozan
Rest of the Deck (Listed most favorable schedule to least):
Nets (SOS: 4.8) – Maybe we should rename this team the “Williams.” Deron, Shawne, Shelden and even Jordan all helped in defeating the Pistons on Feb. 1. Shawne is the best pickup while MarShon Brooks is out (toe).
Wizards (SOS: 4.8) – John Wall had an abysmal shooting performance against the Magic, shooting 1-of-12. Between the turnovers and shooting percentage, you should definitely sell high after a nice hot streak.
Suns (SOS: 4.9) – As Bill Simmons put it, it’s time to start the movement #freeSteveNash, as he just keep registering more great games for a miserable team. Meanwhile, Channing Frye might be heating up – sell high soon!
Knicks (SOS: 5.0) – Iman Shumpert doesn’t even have to worry about Baron Davis’ return because Mike D’Antoni is already considering pulling him from the starting PG spot. Yet another player to trade away sooner than later.
76ers (SOS: 5.0) – Outside of the toughest matchups, Thaddeus Young is once again a solid source of points. In deep leagues, he’s certainly worth owning.
Bucks (SOS: 5.3) – Stephen Jackson is back from his suspension, and while the minutes were low to start (just nine on Feb. 1), soon we’ll have a messy rotation with him, Carlos Delfino and Mike Dunleavy.
Kings (SOS: 5.3) – Marcus Thornton is close to his return, which means Jimmer Fredette and his three-point bonanza is about to end.
Clippers (SOS: 5.5) – As expected, DeAndre Jordan is turning into a Fantasy must-start. There is more good news for the Clip as they have no more three-game weeks (excluding All-Star break) and actually have one more five-game set left on the season.
Nuggets (SOS: 5.6) – Ty Lawson is back, and while his numbers are down a bit from his early season run, consider buying low as he should improve.
Grizzlies (SOS: 5.6) – Don’t overlook Tony Allen in 12-team or bigger leagues. In addition to decent points, he chips in some steals and blocks which is a rare combination to find.
Heat (SOS: 5.6) – I know I keep mentioning trade candidates, but I hope you already moved Chris Bosh now that Dwyane Wade is back. If not, and Wade gets hurt again, do it then. There is just not enough consistent production to go around when Wade and LeBron James are both playing.
Timberwolves (SOS: 5.9) – J.J. Barea took longer than expected to return, but now that he’s back, expect him to cut into Luke Ridnour’s value.
Magic (SOS: 5.9) – As long as Jason Richardson is out, you should give J.J. Redick some burn. In his start against the Wizards, Redick had 21 points and three three-pointers.
Cavaliers (SOS: 6.0) – You have to feel for the Cavs. They already don’t have many options and now Antawn Jamison is ailing (hand).
Pacers (SOS: 6.0) – Darren Collison seems to be turning the corner, and now that George Hill is out with an ankle injury, his hot streak should continue.
Trail Blazers (SOS: 6.0) – Marcus Camby just keeps bringing down the rebounds and swatting the competition’s shots. If you don’t need points, Camby is a good option in any league.
Hawks (SOS: 6.4) – Jeff Teague’s sprained ankle shouldn’t be a worry to you anymore. In the two games since coming back, Teague has 34 points and nine assists, while Kirk Hinrich is still an afterthought.
Celtics (SOS: 6.5) – While Rajon Rondo is supposed to play this Friday (Feb. 3), make sure he does and comes out fine before sticking him in weekly leagues. After all, Rondo was supposed to be “good to go” a few weeks ago.
THREE GAMES
Rags
CHA, DAL, DET, GS, NO, SA
Teams with three games provide little outside the stars; we’ll touch on any additional options.
Pistons (SOS: 1.3) – It’s too bad for Detroit that there is only three games. With two versus New Jersey and one against Washington, this may be the easiest schedule we see all year. If have daily roster moves, go ahead and get some value out of Rodney Stuckey, Brandon Knight and Tayshaun Prince with these games.
All In: Greg Monroe
Warriors (SOS: 3.7) – The other team with good scheduling news like the Clip is Golden State. This is the last time you’ll see them with three or less game (again, outside All-Star break), and they actually have two more five-game weeks. Trade targets anyone? Unless you can switch him in/out daily, avoid Dorell Wright this week even with his recent surge. Wright is simply too inconsistent overall.
All In: Monta Ellis, David Lee, Stephen Curry
Mavericks (SOS: 5.3) – Outside Shawn Marion having a resurgent season, there isn’t much else to like here. Vince Carter is better served as a four-game option.
All In: Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry
Spurs (SOS: 6.2) – With the team’s plans to limit the wear-and-tear on Tim Duncan, he’s likely to skip the game on February 2 (or has if you’re reading this late). The good news is in a three-game week, you don’t have to worry about Duncan sitting out.
All In: Tony Parker, Duncan
Hornets (SOS: 6.3) – With the Spurs and these last two teams we’re in sketchy waters. Just three games and tough matchups make all three teams risky options. That includes avoiding most of this team in weekly leagues, but at least keep an eye on Greivis Vasquez and his recent surge.
All In: Jarrett Jack (and a weak one at that)
Bobcats (SOS: 7.5) – This team is a mess, a joke, and a potential contender if it were in the NCAA tourney… maybe. Just forget about them altogether, as even Gerald Henderson’s points-only value is hurt this week.
All In: None! Fold your hand!
*All stats through February 1
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