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Zack Greinke had a 10.54 K/9 in 2011.
Any chance Zack Greinke returns to Cy Young form?
I think there is a good chance. There is a lot to like about what Greinke did last season in the transition to the National League with the Brewers. In his Cy Young season with the Royals in 2009, Greinke had a 2.16 ERA and I doubt he gets to that mark again. Greinke was injured to begin last season limiting him to 171 2/3 innings, as he failed to top 200 innings for the first time since 2007. Greinke got off to a horrible start in 2011, at least in terms of ERA, and it was mostly due to a high home run per fly ball rate. It was at 13.6-percent, while his career average is nine percent, a mark he was at or under for the four previous seasons. The K/9 for Greinke has been inconsistent, but he had a career-high 10.54 last season, following a 9.50 in 2009. As usual, he had excellent control with a 2.36 BB/9. Don’t be alarmed by the 3.83 ERA, as he had some poor luck most of the season and a 2.98 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). That, along with the aforementioned peripherals shows how good he was. Greinke also had a 47-percent ground ball rate and just a 30-percent fly ball rate, so I expect the home runs to decline. Greinke might be undervalued in some drafts because of the ERA last season. I am extremely comfortable with him as my No. 1, and I expect his performance to come close to his 2009 season.
What do you think about Justin Upton?
I am a huge Upton fan and so are most people, considering he’s going in the first round in almost every draft I have seen so far. Upton is just 24 and we have yet to see the best of him. This is his fifth season in the majors. Upton has always produced solid walk rates, but the biggest jump he made last season was more contact, as his strikeout rate declined from 26.6-percent to 18.7-percent. That helped boost his average from .273 to .289, and he did bat .300 in 2009. Upton scored 105 runs, hit 31 home runs, drove in 88, and stole 21 bases. He’s a five-tool player and has even more upside. He is a player to build around and worth the first-round investment.
In my league, we get three points per stolen base, so I’m looking to go stud pitching with stolen bases guys at as many positions as I can. If you could, what would be the best stolen base guys at each position.
Good job by you for paying attention to the league rules. You’ll be surprised how many people don’t bother to look. I will avoid listing the elite guys that go early, like Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jose Reyes, etc. I will list guys in the middle to late rounds. I wouldn’t worry about catcher. Very few catchers will run. At first base, Eric Hosmer will provide some stolen bases at a position where most guys don’t get many; he had 11 last season. Jemile Weeks had 22 stolen bases in 406 at-bats and is someone to consider at second base. Dee Gordon has the potential to be among the league leaders in stolen bases. The shortstop is extremely fast and he stole 24 bases in 31 attempts in 224 at-bats. The key for him is more patience. If he can walk more, he will be very good. Erick Aybar and Alcides Escobar are other shortstops to look at. Brett Lawrie is a target at third base and he hits for power, too. In the outfield, there is Desmond Jennings, Michael Bourn, Dexter Fowler, Coco Crisp, Brett Gardner, Cameron Maybin, Peter Bourjos, Drew Stubbs, B.J. Upton, Jason Bourgeois, Alex Presley, Alejandro De Aza, Ben Revere, and Will Venable. Emilio Bonifacio is someone eligible at outfield, shortstop, and third base in many leagues, but the question mark this year is where his playing time will come from.
I am in a keeper league and can keep up to six, but I have eight good players. I am keeping Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler, Hanley Ramirez and Carlos Santana, but don’t know who to keep for the last one out of Mark Teixeira, Cole Hamels, and Andrew McCutchen.
If this is a league where you start just one catcher, I would throw Santana back. There are about 8-10 players I feel comfortable with as my top catcher, so in a league with just one, you can possibly get Santana back in the draft or target someone like Matt Wieters, Miguel Montero, or Yadier Molina at a good value. In this scenario, I’d keep Teixeira and McCutchen. If this is a league that starts two catchers, I would keep Santana and McCutchen. This would give you three outfielders, but all three are just about locks for 20-20, and realistically, all can go 30-30. I like Teixeira a lot and believe his average will rebound. His skills are very good. Nothing is out of the ordinary from the years where he hit between .282-.308 from 2005-09 aside from his Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), which was well below his career mark the last two seasons. I could see him hitting .270-.280. I’d target him with your first pick if you throw him back. Either way, this is a phenomenal start, even in a 10-team league.
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Adam is a staff writer at RotoExperts.com. You can email him at aronis@rotoexperts.com, on twitter at AdamRonis or check out his Newsday blog.
