Football season is officially over. The Super Bowl has been played, and regardless of whether you thought the Giants should have won, if Wes Welker should have caught that pass or if Tom Brady should learn to throw and catch passes, it’s over. At least this year we don’t have to worry if there will be a 2012 season. There’s no impending lockout and the Mayan calendar has us at least lasting until December. In the coming weeks, I will start looking at early picks for draft day, which players are headed to free agency, which rookies to look out for once the draft has occurred and after Feb. 20, which players are slapped with the franchise tag. Until then, we can still look back on the Super Bowl and mull over a few questions.
The Giants have three hungry receivers. Can Eli Manning feed them all?
Can the Giants play with three elite wide receivers?
They certainly did in the Super Bowl, however, that does not mean that’s the case for next year. Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz aren’t going anywhere, leaving Mario Manningham as the odd man out. Heading into the season, it had looked like he had the No. 2 WR spot sewn up. However, once Cruz emerged and showed the world his salsa skills, Manningham dropped to the No. 3 receiver. Dogged by knee injuries throughout the regular season, Manningham ended up being a disappointment for Fantasy owners. He did well in the Super Bowl, with five receptions for 73 yards compared to Cruz’s four receptions for 25 yards and a touchdown. Nicks, if there was still any debate, is the Giants’ top receiver: 10 receptions for 109 yards in the Super Bowl put the icing on that argument.
If anything, the emergence of Cruz helps Nicks’ Fantasy value next year. Teams must find a way to stop the speedy slot receiver – like the Patriots attempted to do in the Super Bowl – leaving Nicks open. While Manningham is a decent receiver, he is a free agent and it is unlikely he will remain with the Giants. Where he ends up will decide how much Fantasy value he will have. Partnered with someone like Larry Fitzgerald or Dwayne Bowe, he can succeed. However, if he ends up somewhere like San Francisco, or lost in the shuffle in Oakland, his Fantasy value falls to around where Steve Smith’s (Philly) lies.
Tom Brady will likely go as a Top 5 QB in drafts. Is Eli in the Top 10?
Before the 2011 season started, Eli Manning was asked on ESPN New York 1050 if he considered himself to be in the same class as Tom Brady. Manning said that he did, in fact, consider himself to be in that same class. He complimented Brady and said that he’s gotten better with time and hopes for himself that he would do the same. Back in August, Manning was mocked. No way is he in the same league as Brady, doubters said. Sure, there was the Super Bowl in 2008, but look at the regular season. Look at the 25 interceptions he had in his 2010 season, compared to Brady’s four. Forget that Brady threw for 36 touchdowns and Manning threw for 31 in that same year. Don’t look at Manning throwing for 4,002 yards and Brady throwing for 3,900. Ignore those numbers, or if you’re Manning, ignore the doubters. Show the world that you are one of the best clutch quarterbacks in the league. Show everyone that you do have pocket presence, you can create plays, and you can make the throws you need to make when you need to make them.
In the 2011 season, Manning’s interceptions dropped to 16 compared with 29 touchdown passes and 4,933 yards. Brady’s figures were better: 12 interceptions, 39 touchdowns and 5,235 yards. However, in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl, Manning was able to get the ball down the field and take the lead. Brady couldn’t do that. While few would say Manning is the better quarterback out of the two, he certainly has proven that he can work his way into the same class as Brady, if he hasn’t already. However, for Fantasy purposes, Brady is still the better pick. A clear Top Five option, Brady looks to throw – or even run the ball in the end zone himself – when he’s in the red zone. Manning has Brandon Jacobs to push his way through. It will depend on where quarterbacks and receivers shake out in the offseason, but there is a possibility Manning may crack the Top 10. He’s definitely a solid backup if you have him in a keeper league at a good price. Stick with him.
Come draft time next year (or keeper leagues now), what should you do with the two Patriots’ tight ends?
Quite often in Fantasy, the tight end position is the hardest to successfully fill. Heading into the 2011 season, many thought there was an abundance of quality tight ends. This didn’t quite end up being the case, due to suspensions and injuries, however, there were certainly an elite few. Both Patriots tight ends placed in the Top Three of the regular season for Fantasy purposes. So what happens next year? First, you can’t base your decision on the Super Bowl. Rob Gronkowski only had two receptions for 26 yards, but he was playing with a high ankle sprain. If you had that injury, you’d struggle to walk to your mailbox. He played in a football game, but don’t hold that stat line against him. Rumors are that he will not need surgery on his ankle, so he should be primed to be a Top Five tight end again next year. It’s hard to predict at this point whether he’ll end up in the Top Three again or not. There have been plenty of players throughout the years that succeed one year and then falter the next.
Will Gronk fall into that category? It doesn’t seem likely. He will likely be the first tight end off the board on draft day. But if you don’t want to risk an early pick on a tight end, hold off a couple rounds and you’ll likely be able to snag Aaron Hernandez. With Gronkowski hobbled, Hernandez had 14 targets, which he turned into eight receptions for 67 yards and a touchdown in the Super Bowl. His regular season stats are nothing to sneeze at either – 79 receptions for 910 yards, averaging 11.5 yards per reception, with seven touchdowns. Hernandez also was fairly consistent throughout the season – a key factor in the tight end position. If next season plays out like this season, Gronk will outscore Hernandez in terms of Fantasy points, but if you aren’t willing to gamble that early in the draft, go with Hernandez.
Does a Giants TE have Fantasy value?
While the Patriots have two tight ends to pick from, the Giants will likely leave you with zero options on draft day. Starting tight end Jake Ballard and backup tight end Travis Beckum both tore their ACL in the Super Bowl. With a recovery timetable of about eight months, it is likely that both will begin next season on the PUP list and the Giants will be in desperate need of a tight end. The tight ends that will be available in free agency may not help. The biggest names (not expected to be given the franchise tag) include Visanthe Shiancoe, Jacob Tamme, Scott Chandler, Joel Dreessen and Jeremy Shockey. It’s hard to say if any of those would be a good fit for the Giants, but they are going to have to work on that position for sure.
As of right now, none of those guys would be a top tight end pick. If Ballard had only torn his meniscus, as originally reported, he might be a late round consideration. At this point, even in a keeper league, Ballard should be dropped. Whoever the Giants get will have the starting job and will be his to lose. If Ballard comes back and is playing at the same level he was before he injured his ACL, he may pose a challenge for the tight end position, but it’s not something to count on.
Which running back out of the group would YOU take?
Ahmad Bradshaw. Brandon Jacobs. BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Stevan Ridley. Danny Woodhead. Out of that group, only Green-Ellis is a free agent. If we had to base performance on the Super Bowl, Bradshaw would be the winner with 72 yards and a touchdown. Jacobs filled purely a back-up role with 37 yards on nine carries. Green-Ellis rushed for 44 yards on 10 carries and caught two passes for 15 yards. Ridley didn’t see a snap, and Woodhead rushed for 18 yards on seven carries, but caught four passes for 42 yards and a touchdown. It does appear that the Patriots are preparing for life without Green-Ellis with Ridley, Shane Vereen and Woodhead to carry the load. As a pass-first team, Green-Ellis didn’t show anything that would make the Pats want to pay a lot to keep him around.
It is up in the air if Jacobs will stay with New York, however, Bradshaw is likely the better back to own out of the entire group. He does have his share of health issues, particularly in his feet, but he’s a strong back with good hands. Manning looks to him when he’s trying to dump the ball off. He’ll continue to be a cog in the Giants’ offense next year, and out of the group of running backs on two teams with excellent receivers, Bradshaw is the guy to own.
Agree? Disagree? Let me know at sbojo32@rotoexperts.comor follow me on Twitter @RotoExpertSarah
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