Week 8 Schedule Analysis
Reminder: Helping you learn poker terms while applying them to the schedule breakdown. Domination: any situation where one hand is highly likely to beat another; Favorite: a hand matched against another with the odds advantage; Underdog: a player with a smaller chance to win; Rags: low-valued and presumably worthless cards; Drawing Dead: playing a drawing hand that will lose even if successful
FIVE GAMES
PHO
Dominant
As will be the norm all season, teams with five games are the best bets every week.
Suns (SOS: 6.2) – The Suns are the only five-game team this week and that’s doubly good news, as most weeks they have few options, and the schedule is actually a bit difficult. Jared Dudley has been providing decent numbers, with double-digit points in his last six games, while Grant Hill can have deep-league value as he should return by Feb. 11 or Feb. 13 at the latest. Channing Frye appears to be turning the corner (again), so plug him in your lineup.
All In: Steve Nash, Marcin Gortat
FOUR GAMES
CHA, DAL, DEN, DET, GS, HOU, IND, LAC, MEM, MIA, MIL, MIN, NJ, NY, OKC, ORL, PHI, POR, SAC, UTA
Favorites
Grizzlies (SOS: 2.6) – Memphis has the easiest schedule of any team with Houston being the toughest opponent. Houston ranks just 19th overall on defense while allowing over 96 PPG. Mike Conley’s occasional off nights can certainly be ignored, and O.J. Mayo’s only downfall is his weak shooting percentage. Tony Allen should be back in time for Week 8, and if so, plug him in, as Allen is now a must-start. Forget about Marreese Speights, who is losing time to Dante Cunningham who also has no value.
All In: Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol, Allen (if healthy)
- Are owners getting too caught up in Linsanity already? Photo Credit: nikk_la
Thunder (SOS: 3.0) – If you’ve been reading any of these schedule breakdowns, by now you know the deal with Oklahoma City. There are three quality Fantasy players, and a bunch of “well maybes.” Serge Ibaka is great at blocking and can put up some points here and there, and Daequan Cook is a decent bet for two solid games in a favorable four-game week like this, but that’s it.
All In: Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden
Pacers (SOS: 3.1) – With George Hill out, the other George, Paul George, has taken a real step forward and is worth starting in most weeks. He’ll have a slow-scoring night once in a while, but with solid rebounding and steals, his value remains high enough to warrant use. With Darren Collison providing consistent numbers, the Pacers now have four quality Fantasy options to use. David West is the fifth option on this team but won’t ever regain his early-career value. Nevertheless, you can slide him in during a favorable week and in deep leagues.
All In: Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert
Underdogs
Nets (SOS: 8.0) – It’s not as though you were counting on the Nets for much already, and now they play three teams in the Top Nine for defense and a Milwaukee team that is middle of the pack. MarShon Brooks will not return until Feb. 12 at the earliest, and Anthony Morrow is just as likely to score 42 again as he is to put up a single-digit performance. The only overlooked option is Jordan Farmar who still has value as long as Morrow is out.
All In: Deron Williams, Kris Humprhies
Bobcats (SOS: 7.8) – As bad as New Jersey is, Charlotte is infinitely worse. After losing Gerald Henderson (hamstring), the Bobcats really have nothing outside of rookie Kemba Walker. That is, unless Reggie Williams is for real. In the last two games, Williams has 21 points in each with two threes made. Keep an eye on him as he chips in a few rebounds and assists as well. Just be forewarned that Williams can go cold any night and hurt you.
All In: Walker
Pistons (SOS: 7.0) – I don’t know if the NBA planned this week on purpose or what, but three of the worst teams and the two lowest-scoring ones (Detroit and Charlotte) have rough schedules. Detroit does play Sacramento, and if you have daily moves, you could get some value from Ben Gordon, Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince and Jonas Jerekbo. The problem is that each one is inconsistent, and in the other three games, Detroit faces San Antonio once and Boston twice.
All In: Greg Monroe
Rest of the Deck (Listed from most favorable schedule to least):
Trail Blazers (SOS: 3.5) – I just recommended the same thing to a Twitter follower: sell high-ish on Gerald Wallace. He is inconsistent and his name carries more value than his numbers.
Jazz (SOS: 4.4) – Jamaal Tinsley is back (personal), but so are Devin Harris and Earl Watson. Result? Just avoid all of them.
Rockets (SOS: 5.4) – Chase Budinger and Courtney Lee may look appealing of late, but outside of being fill-ins for a few games, they don’t have much value once Kevin Martin bounces back.
Mavericks (SOS: 5.5) – Need proof of Vince Carter’s inconsistency? 17, 4, 14, 8, 21 – that is his scoring in the last five games.
Bucks (SOS: 5.5) – Stephen Jackson had a nice game on Feb. 8, but so did Carlos Delfino and Mike Dunleavy. This trio will continue to frustrate, but if Jackson is traded, the value of each increases quite a bit.
Knicks (SOS: 5.6) – Linsanity! Jeremy Lin anyone? As exciting and fun as this is, sell high if anyone is gaga over him. Once Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony return, it’d be more than surprising to see Lin keep this up.
Warriors (SOS: 6.0) – Outside of the game on Feb. 7, Dorell Wright has picked up his game and is back to being a must-start option in most leagues. Most attractive are those 17 three-pointers in five games from Jan. 25 – Feb. 4.
Timberwolves (SOS: 6.0) – If you haven’t grabbed Nikola Pekovic yet, what are you waiting for? Pekovic has double-digit points in all but one game over the past nine while averaging 14.7 points and 9.2 boards.
76ers (SOS: 6.0) – Spencer Hawes is still out with back problems. Once he returns, wait for a few good games and trade him. Hawes could deal with injuries all year and has struggled to find his early-season success, even during his brief return in early January.
Kings (SOS: 6.0) – I would avoid anyone outside of the main three on this team. Jimmer Fredette (when he plays), Isaiah Thomas and Jason Thompson are too unreliable for Fantasy use outside the deepest of leagues.
Nuggets (SOS: 6.3) – With Danilo Gallinari (ankle) out at least four weeks, Arron Afflalo, Rudy Fernandez and Corey Brewer will all see an uptick in value.
Clippers (SOS: 6.4) – Speaking of value increases, Chauncey Billups is done for the year (Achilles), which means Randy Foye should be owned in every league. Mo Williams’ role won’t change much, but Foye will see a significant bump in Fantasy usefulness.
Heat (SOS: 6.4) – Big three, yada yada yada, the end… oh wait, Mario Chalmers is stubbornly holding on to his Fantasy worth. He doesn’t provide much in counting stats, but his points and threes are certainly worthwhile in most leagues.
Magic (SOS: 6.9) – It may not last, but you have to use Jason Richardson while he is hot. J-Rich has 65 points and 12 threes in four games since his return from a knee injury.
THREE GAMES
Rags
ATL, BOS, CHI, CLE, LAL, NO, SA, TOR, WSH
Teams with three games provide little outside the stars; we’ll touch on any additional options.
Spurs (SOS: 3.8) – As mentioned in previous weeks, Tim Duncan will see reduced playing time in heavy weeks or back-to-back games. Fortunately, only for Duncan owners, San Antonio has just three games. Tiago Splitter is doing well in his low minutes, but is too risky this week.
All In: Tony Parker, Duncan
Bulls (SOS: 4.3) – Luol Deng is back from his wrist injury and already playing over 40 minutes per game. It looks as though it’s similar to Kobe Bryant’s situation: handle the pain and everything will be fine. Carlos Boozer is too up-and-down for weekly use, but daily leaguers can plug him in lineups.
All In: Derrick Rose, Deng
Wizards (SOS: 4.3) – Unless you’re needy for blocks, JaVale McGee should remain on your bench in a three-game week.
All In: Nick Young, John Wall
Raptors (SOS: 4.8) – Ah Toronto, can things get much worse? They can for you if you attempt to get cute with anyone outside of DeMar DeRozan.
All In: DeRozan
Hornets (SOS: 5.0) – Eric Gordon’s return is delayed again, Carl Landry is hurt, Chris Kaman is playing and splitting time again, Jarrett Jack is being worked back in slowly and what else… really, nothing but that this team is in shambles. Just stay away.
All In: Fold that hand
Lakers (SOS: 5.3) – There is no one worth your while outside the main three. But, that hot streak I was talking about selling Pau Gasol after? It’s here. Start fielding offers.
All In: Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum, Gasol
Celtics (SOS: 5.7) – Rajon Rondo is playing, which gives Boston four solid Fantasy players again. Brandon Bass has value in most weeks, but outside daily leagues, there just won’t be enough production to use him.
All In: Rondo, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett
Cavaliers (SOS: 5.7) – Deep leaguers should keep an eye on Daniel Gibson, who returned with 17 points and two threes in 36 minutes on Feb. 8. Don’t plug him in during this three-game week, but Gibson can certainly have value in four-game weeks.
All In: None! Fold your hand!
Hawks (SOS: 6.8) – Another situation to watch is Jeff Teague versus Kirk Hinrich. Teague is still starting and playing a few more minutes, but check that mirror because Hinrich is closer than he appears with better production of late. Hinrich could push Teague out of the starting rotation at this rate.
All In: Josh Smith, Joe Johnson
*All stats through February 8
Don’t miss all of our terrific shows: Dr. Roto’s Fantasy Gameday, Xperts Edge Sunday Mornings at 11am (ET), Fantasy Baseball Confidential and more on blogtalkradio
Want to go “All In” with Jake on anything NFL, MLB, College Football or NBA? Email jakeallinciely@rotoexperts.com or follow him on Twitter @JakeAllinCiely
Relive some of the NFL season with NFL Rewind. With NFL Rewind you can go back and see any and everything that led to this point.
