Fantasy owners will flip over Carl Edwards in 2012. Credit: NASCARMedia.com
It’s time for the 2012 Sprint Cup Series season, as Tony Stewart looks to defend his title from last season. Don’t think for one minute that Jimmie Johnson won’t have a little something to say about that. The LVH Super Book, which was previously known as the Las Vegas Hilton, has installed Johnson as a 9-2 favorite to win his sixth title in seven years. Carl Edwards is a close second at 5-1. And just in case you were wondering, Stewart is 8-1.
Things will kick off at the Daytona International Speedway for the 54th running of The Great American Race, the Daytona 500. Last year, Trevor Bayne shocked the world when he ran his No. 21 machine for the Wood Brothers to victory, starting the new season off with a bang. Meanwhile, Smoke settled in at 13th place, taking home 31 points. The eventual champion doesn’t have to win Daytona, but it helps to get off to a decent start.
We’ll check out some favorites on the superspeedways, and we’ll also give you a handful of Fantasy options to avoid. Use this column as a reference point throughout the season, although things can change as the year unfolds.
Restrictor-Plate Tracks
Believe it or not, Paul Menard charged to the top of the charts on Restrictor-Plate tracks in 2011, posting a 10.2 average starting position, and a 10.2 Average Finish. He came away with 138 points in four races, finishing seven ahead of the Sprint Cup Series champ Stewart, who checked in with a 12.0 Average Finish and 131 points.
As per usual, Clint Bowyer was also fairly effective on the Restrictor-Plate runs, settling in with a 14.0 Average Finish position. However, remember one name when setting your initial Fantasy lineup for the 2012 Daytona 500 on Feb. 26 – David Gilliland. Overall, he doesn’t have a ton of Fantasy appeal, but in two races at Daytona, and two races at Talladega last season, Gilliland managed an average finish spot of 12.5, despite a 39.2 Average Start. He collected 126 points, so he is especially useful in Tiered/Grouping formats.
On the flip side, Jimmie Johnson gets a lot of fanfare (rightfully so), but he hasn’t exactly been burning up the tracks at Daytona and Talladega. Last season, he did collect a win at Talladega in the spring run, but he posted an average finish spot of 18.5, collecting just 107 points over four races. That total had him tied for 13th place among all drivers, which isn’t terrible, but isn’t great. Save Johnson for intermediate runs and flat tracks in Tiered/Grouping format leagues.
Kyle Busch is also an extremely talented driver, and there is no denying that even if you don’t like his demeanor and personality. But on Restrictor-Plate runs, he is very ordinary, checking in with an Average Start of 29.0 and an Average Finish of 20.2 in 2011. He amassed just 99 points in four superspeedways runs, and he led just 22 of his 697 laps between Daytona and Talladega.
Ryan Newman was also abysmal on Restrictor-Plate tracks, posting an average finish of 27.0, with no Top Fives or Top 10s.
Restrictor-Plate Schedule and Predicted Winners
Feb. 26 Daytona – David Gilliland
May 6 Talladega – Kevin Harvick
July 7 Daytona – Tony Stewart
Oct. 7 Talladega – Clint Bowyer
Flat Tracks
Smoke made a lot of hay on the flats, picking up a win, three Top Fives and five Top 10s in seven runs while topping the charts with a 7.3 Average Finish last season. He earned 267 points in the seven races, which was 13 better than teammate Newman and Jeff Gordon, who were each tied for second on the flats with a 254-point total.
Johnson was also one of four drivers to average better than a Top 10 finish on flat tracks, checking in with a 9.6 average finish despite starting on average at 16.7 on the grid. It wasn’t his performance on tracks like Indianapolis, New Hampshire, Phoenix and Pocono which kept him from his sixth consecutive title last season, that’s for sure.
For whatever reason, the Hendrick chassis performs well on flat tracks, and there is no reason to believe they won’t dominate again in 2012. Kasey Kahne moves over from his one-year run with Red Bull Racing to Hendrick Motorsports. It wasn’t a great season for Kahne, but he was able to post one win and three Top 10s in seven flat track runs. He checked in fifth among all drivers with a 12.3 average finish with 230 points.
If you’re looking for a sleeper, remember A.J. Allmendinger on the flats. He did not lead any of his 1,783 laps in the seven flat track races last season, but he did manage a 16.3 Average Finish with 226 points, which was tied for fifth overall. He is expected to take a leap forward, so Fantasy players will want to remember his name.
It was a little bit of a lost season for Denny Hamlin last season, and he didn’t perform as well as usual on flats, stumbling to an Average Finish of 16.6. However, remember his name at Pocono Raceway, as he is second among all active drivers with four wins and an average finishing position of 9.7.
On the other hand, things certainly went awry for Jamie McMurray on the flat tracks. While he did manage a fourth-place finish at Indianapolis, that was about the only thing that went right on flats for Jamie Mac. He stumbled to a 23.6 Average Finish in seven flat runs, a horrid 27.5 Average Finish in two attempts at the tri-oval at Pocono. When filling out your Fantasy lineup that weekend, be sure to lose McMurray’s name.
Juan Pablo Montoya has been effective at the Brickyard in the past, but he tumbled to 28th-place last July 31. Still, he is worth remembering as a sleeper when that event comes around. Outside of that, however, he is hit or miss. At New Hampshire last season, he had a positive ninth-place run in the fall, but spun his wheels in 30th-place in the summer session at NHMS. He had a promising seventh in the first run at Pocono, only to falter at 32nd in the second run at the tricky triangle. At Phoenix, he was altogether mediocre, posting finishes of 15th and 19th.
Flat Schedule and Predicted Winners
March 4 Phoenix – Jeff Gordon
June 10 Pocono – Denny Hamlin
July 15 New Hampshire -Clint Bowyer
July 29 Indianapolis -Tony Stewart
Aug. 5 Pocono -Ryan Newman
Sept. 23 New Hampshire -A.J. Allmendinger
Nov. 11 Phoenix -Jimmie Johnson
Intermediate Tracks
The bulk of the Sprint Cup Series schedule will once again be run on intermediate tracks, as we’ll have 17 races on the type. Oddly enough, though, the 2012 schedule gives us an interesting setup, as there are three consecutive flat track runs from July 15-Aug. 5, sandwiched by a restrictor-plate run July 7 at Daytona, and a road course at Watkins Glen on Aug. 12. That means we won’t see intermediate track racing all the way from June 30 through Aug. 19.
For Fantasy owners that might mean keeping intermediate extraordinaire Carl Edwards parked in the garage for a while, especially if you can use him only in a set number of races. Cousin Carl posted just one win in 17 intermediate races last season, but consistency was the key. He had a whopping 13 Top Fives and 15 Top 10s. His only hiccups, or finishes outside of the Top 10 on intermediates, came at the grueling Charlotte 600-mile run, and a disappointing 36th-place showing at the second Michigan run.
In fact, make sure to have Edwards front and center on your Fantasy lineup when the NASCAR boys head to the Irish Hills, as he has two wins, nine Top Fives and 12 Top 10s in 15 career starts at Michigan.
Stewart and Matt Kenseth picked up three checkered flags on intermediate runs last season, with Kenseth nearly duplicating Edwards in the Top 10 category. He managed 13 Top 10s in 17 intermediate races, posting a 7.5 Average Finish, one of only three drivers to have an Average Finish of 10.0 or better in the 17-race intermediate schedule.
Look for Roush-Fenway Racing to dominate again, especially at Michigan, and perhaps at Homestead-Miami, too. RFR has traditionally been very strong at those tracks. In addition, look for Greg Biffle to bounce back. He qualified well, posting a 10.8 average start spot in 17 intermediate races, but he stumbled to a 16.3 average finish. Still, 13 of his 16 career victories have come on intermediate tracks. Keep that in mind.
Joe Gibbs Racing’s Joey Logano had a forgettable season, especially on intermediate tracks. He posted just one Top Five and one Top 10 in 17 intermediate races, averaging an awful 22.3 place finish. Remember Logano at Kentucky, as he won three consecutive races at the track during his Nationwide days. Jeff Burton also was consistently mediocre, managing no Top Fives and just one Top 10 in 17 starts, bringing it home at an 18.4 place average.
Intermediate Schedule and Predicted Winners
March 11 Las Vegas – Matt Kenseth
March 25 Auto Club – Jimmie Johnson
April 14 Texas – Carl Edwards
April 22 Kansas -Carl Edwards
May 12 Darlington -Brad Keselowski
May 27 Charlotte – Kasey Kahne
June 3 Dover – Jimmie Johnson
June 17 Michigan – Carl Edwards
June 30 Kentucky – Joey Logano
Aug. 19 Michigan – Greg Biffle
Sept. 2 Atlanta – Tony Stewart
Sept. 16 Chicagoland -Brian Vickers
Sept. 30 Dover -Jimmie Johnson
Oct. 13 Charlotte – Jeff Gordon
Oct. 21 Kansas – Clint Bowyer
Nov. 4 Texas – Tony Stewart
Nov. 18 Homestead-Miami – Carl Edwards
Short Tracks
There are just three short tracks on the circuit, with two races each. We have the .533-mile oval at Bristol, which 2012 Hall of Fame inductee Darrell Waltrip once said is like “racing in a blender.” Then, we have the paperclip at Martinsville, which is the shortest run on the circuit at .526 miles around with banking/turns at 12 degrees. Last, but certainly not least, the three-quarter mile D-shaped oval at Richmond, which features 14-degree banking in the turns, an 8-degree bank on the front-stretch and just 2-degree banking on the back-stretch.
The class of the short tracks is Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick, who each posted two wins, three Top Fives and four Top 10s last season in the six races. Harvick topped the charts with a 7.7 Average Finish, with Rowdy not far off at 8.7 on average. While Edwards did not win a short track race, he actually led all drivers with a 7.5 Average Finish, posting a Sprint Cup Series best five Top 10s in six races.
At Bristol, Kyle Busch is Waltrip-like, as he has five wins in 14 career starts with a 9.1 Average Finish. A lot of people feel Rowdy is a bit of a hothead, but he can obviously keep his cool on the track to do plenty of damage in Thunder Valley. Busch also dominates at Richmond, as he has three career wins, 11 Top Fives and 12 Top 10s in 14 career races at RIR. For whatever reason, though, he can’t seem to piece it together at Martinsville, as he has no wins, six Top Fives and seven Top 10s in 14 career runs, posting a rather mediocre 16.4 place finish by his short track standards.
Gordon also has five wins at Bristol, and isn’t far off Busch’s bumper with an 11.5 Average Finish over 38 career starts at BMS. Biffle is still searching for his first-career win at Bristol, although he has an impressive 11.8 Average Finish, which is good for fourth among all active drivers.
This might also be the place where Kurt Busch is able to break through for a victory. Busch, who has been exiled to Phoenix Racing, will be in the No. 51 car this season. It is a slam dunk for team owner James Finch, but Busch will certainly be running in inferior equipment, which he is not used to. Still, his expertise should help him on the short tracks, regardless of his ride, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get it done, especially at Bristol. He has five career wins in Thunder Valley, posting a respectable 12.9 Average Finish. If we hear from the No. 51 in 2012, it will certainly be on shorts.
Short Track Schedule and Predicted Winners
March 18 Bristol – Kyle Busch
April 1 Martinsville – Jimmie Johnson
April 28 Richmond – Kyle Busch
Aug. 25 Bristol – Jeff Gordon
Sept. 8 Richmond – Kyle Busch
Oct. 28 Martinsville – Brad Keselowski
Road Course Tracks
Last, but certainly not least, are the two road course races. In a very strange twist, Stewart ended up winning the title despite performing especially poorly on perhaps his best track type. He was 39th at Infineon thanks to a crash, and he managed a miserable 27th at The Glen. The year before, he put up an Average Finish of 1.5 at the two road courses, but in 2011 he was 33rd on average. That won’t happen again.
Some die-hard fans can’t stand road courses, but they certainly offer the opportunity to use some Fantasy options that you normally leave to the bench or waiver wire on other runs.
Marcos Ambrose certainly fits the description above, as he rarely does he make a splash on intermediates or superspeedways, although he is certainly on the rise. Still, he dominated road courses, winning at Watkins Glen and finishing fifth at Infineon.
Juan Pablo Montoya is also a fabulous Fantasy option on road courses, although he turned in an ultra-disappointing 22nd-place at Infineon, only to recover somewhat with a seventh-place finish at Watkins Glen. He won at The Glen in 2010, so keep him in mind when choosing drivers for these challenging and turning courses.
Brad Keselowski also showed his chops on the road courses, picking up a 10th place finish at Sonoma, and then a runner-up at Watkins. If he can maintain that level on these challenging courses, then he very well might earn himself a spot in The Chase while making a potential run at the title.
Kurt Busch will also factor in here. He won at Infineon last season, and will challenge for a win at one or both of the road courses.
Don’t forget the usual set of ringers, too. Rarely, if ever, do we see Tony Ave, P.J. Jones, Boris Said or Brian Simo outside of road courses, but they can be instrumental to your Fantasy success, especially in formats which limit usage of drivers to a certain number of races.
Road Course Schedule and Predicted Winners
June 24 Infineon – Tony Stewart
Aug. 12 Watkins Glen – Juan Pablo Montoya
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Daniel E. Dobish is the 2011 FSWA Racing Writer of the Year. Are you a gearhead? Or just want to talk Fantasy Racing? Email Dan at danieledobish@rotoexperts.com or follow Dan at http://twitter.com/danieledobish. Follow RotoExperts on Twitter or check us out on our Facebook page.
