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Carlos Martinez Rising in ADP Data | Max Scherzer Sees Slight Decline

Ian Riley Staff Writer March 13, 2017 3:07PM EDT
Average Draft Position (ADP) is exactly what it says: the average position that a player is selected in both mock and actual league drafts for the site where you are reading the data. When drafting, it is a heavily used tool because it assists in forecasting who may still be available for you at certain points of the selection process.

By no means is it an exact science, as every draft has a different set of minds, but it at least gives a basis for what you can expect. What you can count on is the fact that every ADP list is different. Draft software employs the rankings of the website hosting the draft, and inherently, the players at the top of that site’s rankings sway many users.

Carlos Martinez is a solid pitcher but not quite an ace. Photo by Jimmy Simmons/Icon Sportswire)

Carlos Martinez is a solid pitcher but not quite an ace. Photo by Jimmy Simmons/Icon Sportswire

A couple of things to keep in mind when looking at ADPs: first being that the people drafting over on the National Fantasy Baseball Championships are sharks. These are big money leagues with a bunch of guys that take no prisoners. Their ADPs should be viewed as a strong gauge of what top competitors are thinking. There also aren’t as many drafts, so strong performance or injuries should cause changes in ADP to be more violent.

RISERS


Carlos Martinez, SP, STL
ADP Source 1/12/17

ADP

3/10/17

 ADP

ADP Change (+/-)
NFBC 73.87 68.16 5.71
It’s hard not to look at Martinez and dream for more than we have seen thus far. After back to back seasons of sub 3.10 ERAs, he is now locked in as the Cardinals ace. Outside of a dip in strikeouts, his last two seasons have been a mirror image of each other. As he continues to build upon his ability to pitch sequence as well as his ability to handle left-handed bats his numbers should continue to improve. What we have seen from him over the last two seasons should now be considered his floor.  If you get him as your SP1 he has the ability to finish as a Top-12 pitcher. It would be wise, however, to get your hands on a SP2 soon afterward because while his floor is good, it isn’t ace worthy.

 

Kenta Maeda, SP, LAD
ADP Source 1/12/17

ADP

3/10/17

 ADP

ADP Change (+/-)
NFBC 106.27 100.97 5.30
Unless you owned Maeda last season, you probably aren’t aware of just how good he was. He didn’t receive much press throughout last season and continues to be a man mostly forgotten this year as well. In his first taste of MLB, he posted a 3.48 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 9.17 K/9 over 175.2 innings pitched. His stuff is by no means overpowering, but he does a fantastic job setting up opposing batters with his four pitch arsenal. If you’re of the opinion that last season was a fluke, look no further than his 11.6 SwStr%. He definitely makes for a very nice SP2.

 

Carlos Gomez, OF, TEX
ADP Source 1/12/17

ADP

3/10/17

 ADP

ADP Change (+/-)
NFBC 162.33 153.53 8.80
Gomez’s final numbers last year aren’t pretty. He posted a .231/.384/.682 triple slash over 453 plate appearances. He was so bad, Houston handed him his walking papers in August. He did, however, turn things around a bit after landing with the Rangers. Texas was comfortable enough in what they saw from him to bring him back on a one-year, $11.5M deal. Coming off two very sub-standard seasons, Gomez makes for a pretty interesting risk/reward play. His ADP has been steadily rising and on average he is heading off draft boards in the 13th round in 12-team mixed leagues. Can he post a 20-20 season? It’s not out of the realm of possibility. And when you look at the players coming off the board in this range, it’s pretty easy to see why owners are hoping Gomez hops in his hot tub time machine and cranks that thing back to 2013.

 

Keon Broxton, OF, MIL
ADP Source 1/12/17

ADP

3/10/17

 ADP

ADP Change (+/-)
NFBC 199.53 179.71 19.82
It’s easy to see why Broxton’s ADP has been rapidly rising. Nine homers and 23 stolen bases over just 244 plate appearances is drool worthy. Striking out in 36.1 percent of those plate appearances can make one throw up in their mouth a bit. Factor in that he also managed to walk in 14.8 percent of those plate appearances and that vomit doesn’t quite come up. His entire career in the minors show a guy who is willing to take a walk but definitely has contact issues. Nothing has changed. Personally, I would much rather take a chance on the aforementioned Gomez over Broxton because hitting over .225 over a full season is going to be difficult for him. He hit .255 over 3,187 minor league at-bats. If this doesn’t scream batting average anchor, I don’t know what does. Best case scenario is he becomes Melvin Upton. And would you be drafting him?

 

Alex Bregman ,3B, HOU
ADP Source 1/12/17

ADP

3/10/17

 ADP

ADP Change (+/-)
NFBC 99.0 92.59 6.41
After starting his career 2-for-38, Bregman was somehow able to finish off his season posting a .264-31-8-34-2 line over 217 plate appearances. Obviously, he settled in quite nicely and is now locked in as the Astros starter at third and become a consensus Top-100 pick in Fantasy. Having watched him play, he definitely has that “it” factor. He looks comfortable at the dish and has done nothing but hit in college and the minors prior to his call-up last season. Right now, he is the 10th third baseman coming off draft boards. By late March he will likely pass Anthony Rendon to be ninth. Based on this rising cost and some of the quality options available after him, I personally will be passing. If you definitely want him, you are going to probably have to reach.


FALLERS

Max Scherzer, SP,
ADP Source 1/12/17

ADP

3/10/17

 ADP

ADP Change (+/-)
NFBC 10.07 12.01 2.80
With a little over three weeks remaining before the start of the season Scherzer’s finger injury has kept him from doing nothing more than throwing live batting practice. National’s coach Dusty Baker spoke with the media on 3/10 and seemed to be setting the groundwork for Scherzer to start the season on the DL. If he returns to game action without issue he should need about a month to be ready for the regular season. Personally, I think he misses two or three starts. Based on last year’s production, he can still realistically can reach 250 strikeouts. In my estimation that still makes him a quite valuable considering everything else he provides. The small drop is all that is warranted at this point until proven otherwise via some bad news.

 

David Price, SP, BOS
ADP Source 1/12/17

ADP

3/10/17

 ADP

ADP Change (+/-)
NFBC 47.87 50.13 2.26
The small drop here is a bit of a surprise. News of his elbow woes broke on March 2, and while it seems he has escaped the need for surgery, it looks highly unlikely he’ll be ready for the start of the regular season. A closer look at the ADP numbers show that on 1/12 the latest he was taken in a draft was 64, but as of 3/10 he has gone as late as pick 112. So, if you are in a conservative league and you want Price, you can wait longer than his current ADP to draft him. Price has thrown at least 186.2 innings in each of his last seven seasons. In six of those seven he surpassed 200 innings. The wear on his arm is heavy and the drop in his fastball velocity last season is noteworthy. He is no lock to remain healthy after this scare. Unless he falls out of the Top-100 in redraft leagues, I will be passing. There is still significant risk here.

 

Brad Miller, SS, TAM
ADP Source 1/12/17

ADP

3/10/17

 ADP

ADP Change (+/-)
NFBC 149.13 164.75 15.62
Shortstops who rip 30 homers are typically a pretty hot commodity. That is, unless your name is Brad Miller.  After hitting 29 homers in his first 343 games as a pro, Miller broke out in his first year with Tampa Bay, hitting 30 in 152 games. A new stance and friendlier ball park helped with the power surge, but Fantasy owners just aren’t buying a repeat for this season. I see a .250 hitter who should surpass the 20-homer mark. Those are quality numbers, but with him playing in a below-average offense and offering no speed, it’s easy to see the lack of enthusiasm about him bettering what he did last year.

 

Jung Ho Kang, 3B, CLE
ADP Source 1/12/17

ADP

3/10/17

 ADP

ADP Change (+/-)
NFBC 233.73 250.03 16.30
Kang got clipped for his third DUI in a December 2016 arrest and has received a suspended sentence allowing him to return to the US to play baseball. He also has been accused of sexual assault. His accuser hasn’t been cooperating, meaning nothing may come of it, but that doesn’t mean MLB doesn’t come down on him with a suspension of some sort. That is what has Fantasy owners skittish because it sure as hell isn’t the 21 homers he hit in just 318 at-bats last season. At his current ADP, he is worth the risk as you very well may be drafting him outside of the Top-20 rounds of a 12-team mixed league draft. At that stage of the draft, he will likely be one of your reserves.

 

Greg Bird, 1B, NYY
ADP Source 1/12/17

ADP

3/10/17

 ADP

ADP Change (+/-)
NFBC 227.6 248.62 21.02
The signing of Chris Carter has Fantasy owners pumping the brakes on Bird. Unless the Yanks decide to employ Matt Holliday in the outfield a few games a week, Bird will likely form the strong side of a platoon with Carter. While this hurts his value a bit, remember that New York is looking to grow with their young core and Bird is a part of that. Both Holliday and Carter are in town on one-year deals, so if things do go south, Bird will be locked into everyday at-bats. As things stand now, he should be good for a minimum of 450 PA, making him at least a corner infield option with the ability hit in the .270 range with 20 homers. With more work, the counting totals obviously improve, making him just the kind of hitter you want to fill out the back end of your roster.

 

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