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Which two to keep out of these three: Matt Moore, Desmond Jennings, and Jimmy Rollins. Already have six others I’m keeping.
Matt Moore struck out 210 in 155 minor league innings in 2011.
It would help to know who the other keepers are, but I don’t think it would impact the decision much. Keep Moore and Jennings. We got a glimpse of what Jennings can do last season in the final two months. Jennings was one of the best players in baseball in August and was awful in September. Overall, he batted .259 with 44 runs, 10 home runs, 25 RBIs and 20 stolen bases in 247 at-bats. Jennings is 25, and he has spent a good amount of time in the minors. He struck out 20.6 percent of the time but also had a 10.8 percent walk rate. Jennings is capable of 15 home runs and 50 stolen bases. It didn’t take long to figure out Moore is the real deal. He misses bats and will pile up the strikeouts. He will likely be on an innings limit, so don’t expect 200 innings. Moore pitched 155 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last season and went 12-3 with a 1.92 ERA and 210 strikeouts with 44 walks in 155 innings. He held opponents to a .184 batting average. Moore, a 22-year-old left-hander, was already signed to a five-year, $14 million contract by the Rays. He struck out 11 in a five-inning start against the Yankees in September, and allowed only one run in 10 innings over two appearances against the Rangers in the playoffs. Rollins can still put up good numbers this season, but you can try and get him back in the draft. Moore and Jennings are excellent linchpins to own in a keeper league.
Which three players should I keep? Clayton Kershaw (fifth round), Pablo Sandoval (seventh round), Mike Morse (10th round), and James Shields (18th round). I like Kershaw and Shields, but can’t decide between the other two.
I’d keep Kershaw for sure. He might not have a 2.28 ERA again, but the peripherals indicate another ERA below 3.00 is likely. He’s my No. 1 starting pitcher. Shields in the 18th round is also a keeper. That’s a great value, and while his numbers will likely regress slightly, he’s still going to be very good. For the third, I keep Sandoval. Despite missing time with a hamate bone injury last season, he still put up excellent numbers in 117 games. Sandoval showed 2010 was just a down year after an impressive first full season in 2009. Sandoval batted .315 with 55 runs, 23 home runs, 70 RBIs and .909 OPS in 426 at-bats. After the All-Star break, as the hand improved, Sandoval hit .325 with 29 runs, 15 home runs, 41 RBIs and a .963 OPS in 231 at-bats. Sandoval makes good contact and has the upside for more home runs if he can improve his fly ball rate.
I need one keeper from Justin Upton, Carlos Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson, and Hanley Ramirez.
For me it’s an easy choice to go with Upton. He’s the youngest of the group at age 24 and we have not seen the ceiling for the Diamondbacks’ outfielder yet. Upton, in his fifth season in the majors, has always had solid walk rates. As you expect from a player gaining experience, Upton improved his contact rate last season. After striking out 26.6 percent of the time in 2010, the rate declined to 18.7 percent last season. Upton’s average went from .273 to .289. In 2009, Upton hit .300 and he will help in all five categories. Upton scored 105 runs, hit 31 home runs, drove in 88 and stole 21 bases last season.
In a keeper league, who would you keep: Shawn Marcum or Gio Gonzalez?
My pick is Gonzalez. I am concerned with his high walk rates, though. It has been an issue throughout his career. The BB/9 has gone from 5.11 to 4.13 to 4.05 last season. Even with that, he gets a lot of strikeouts and induces groundballs. Gonzalez has pitched at least 200 2/3 innings the last two seasons. The Nationals’ left-hander had an 8.78 K/9, 3.12 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and a 47.5 percent groundball rate last season. Gonzalez has had fortunate strand rates the last two seasons with 78 percent in 2010 and 77 percent last season. Marcum has better control and limits the walks, but he won’t get as many strikeouts or groundballs. Marcum pitched at least 195 1/3 innings in two consecutive seasons, but missed most of 2009 due to injury and 159 innings was his career high prior to 2010. The other concern is Marcum was awful in September and October. He’s not a bad option, but Gonzalez is the better pick.
Should I get rid of David Price before the season and trade him for Mark Trumbo and Adam Jones now?
It looks like you are undervaluing Price. Trumbo is coming off a stress fracture in his right foot, and even if he’s ready for the start of the season, there’s no guarantee he will get consistent playing time since the Angels don’t have an opening for him in the lineup. Price is 26 years old and improved last season. Forget the 12-13 record since we know wins aren’t a true measure of a pitcher’s performance. Price had an 8.75 K/9, 2.53 BB/9, a 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Those are very impressive numbers for pitching in the tough American League East. Jones went from 19 to 25 home runs, but he still doesn’t hit the ball in the air enough. He went from a 46.3 percent groundball rate in 2010 to 49.5 percent last season and the fly ball rate went from 36.8 percent to 33 percent. The reason for the increase in home runs was the home run/fly ball rate going from 11.4 percent to 16.7 percent. Jones doesn’t walk much and still strikes out a decent amount so expect similar numbers to last season. If you are going to trade Price, you need more back.
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