Check out Adam Ansell’s full 2012 Sprint Cup Driver Rankings.
The Fantasy NASCAR offseason is short, reducing your time for preseason preparation. Making things tougher on Fantasy owners is the busy period between seasons, where a lot happens in a short span. So to bridge the gap and make the road to the Daytona 500 smoother, here are 14 Tips to help you kick-start the 2012 season.
For the first time in the history of this column, we’ll be offering up a number other than 48. The 14 Tips are of course in reference to the defending champion, Tony Stewart.
1. Pick the league that is right for you. Salary Cap-style formats will suit novice Fantasy owners best. They are
Tony Stewart carried a lot of Fantasy squads to the promised land in the final 10 races of 2011. PHOTO CREDIT: NASCAR Media
challenging, but you can compete at a higher level more quickly and own top drivers that make you feel comfortable. More experienced owners should take on formats that make you choose between a few similarly ranked drivers every week. If you are very confident in your knowledge, straight/snake drafting or auction drafting can be a lot of fun with other experienced owners. Such leagues are not for the newbie, as you must execute a very solid draft to have a real shot at contending all year long. There is little room for trades or free agent movement in many of these leagues during the season.
a. Like in all Fantasy games, know your scoring system. NASCAR recently simplified its points system, and most Fantasy leagues will be based around this system. It’s also important to know the type of game you’re playing in, whether values change every week, how your lineup should be set, and the amount of wiggle your room you have for transactions, if any.
2. Kyle Busch ended 2011 in shame (one-race suspension) and a slump (Average Finish of 29.8 in the last four races) but still led all competitors in Driver Rating (104.1) and Average Running Position (10.1). Those figures show just how dominant Busch was early in the season and just how maddening his Jekyll/Hyde routine has become.
a. Of the 10,650 laps run in the 2011 season, Busch led all drivers by leading for 13.66% of them (1,455 total laps).
3. Matt Kenseth ended a 76-race winless streak with a dominating performance in the April event at Texas. Jeff Gordon ended 66-race winless streak in the second race of 2011. That should be reason enough not to put too much stock in winless streaks. Wins are just a small piece of the Fantasy Racing puzzle.
a. Notable winless streaks heading into the 2012 season:
i. Martin Truex Jr. (167)
ii. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (129)
iii. Jeff Burton (113)
iv. Joey Logano (91)
v. Mark Martin (81)
vi. Juan Pablo Montoya (50)
vii. Greg Biffle (43)
viii. Jamie McMurray (41)
4. Get to know what NASCAR’s Driver Rating is, and make it your best friend. It’s the ultimate guideline in Fantasy NASCAR – a stat that is very similar to quarterback rating in football, yet even more accurate. In my weekly Picks and Points Previews, you’ll get the lowdown on which driver has the best rating at each track. NASCAR’s Driver Rating combines the following categories: Wins, finishes, Top 15s, Average Running Position while on lead laps, Fastest Laps Run, Average Speeds under green-flag conditions, Laps Led and lead-lap finishes. The best part of the formula is that it eliminates factors like accidents, pit gaffes and any other potential mishaps. The DR formula includes the Loop Data that truly mirrors how a driver and a car performed in a particular race or over a full season. A perfect Driver Rating is 150 points. You just need to know who has the highest ratings from last year and overall at each track every week.
a. If you play with a salary cap, it’s all about sticking with hot drivers and knowing who performs best at each track. Driver Rating will be a major key for you each week, and fitting road course specialists and other bargains will make the game fun and challenging.
b. If you stick with the same drivers all season, full season Driver Ratings from 2011 will be your paramount guiding statistic. You may rotate the final guy in your lineup every week, so track-by-track DRs will be more important for you to find, and we’ll supply the best sleepers every week.
c. If you’re not playing in a salary-cap league, do all the preparation you possibly can for the draft or initial selection process. You live and die by the draft, as there isn’t much turning back or restructuring after draft day. Trading is essentially a non-factor, and the free agent list is sure to be bare. Plan ahead and be ready to roll with the same team all season.
d. We are going to provide you with a lot more than just Driver Rating each week. We’ll go fully through NASCAR’s Loop Data, its unique set of statistics that help you make sound lineup decisions regularly.
5. Jimmie Johnson finished six races with a Driver Rating worse than 80.0 in 2012 (Daytona, Las Vegas, Richmond, Michigan, Talladega, Phoenix). That number was identical in 2011. He may have failed to make it six titles in a row, but he’s still among the Fantasy NASCAR elite.
6. A.J. Allmendinger was the top Closer in 2011, moving up 134 positions and gaining an average of 3.7 spots in the last 10 percent of laps in each race. Having a guy that gets better when the pressure is on is a very valuable Fantasy commodity.
7. Patience is a virtue. In non-salary cap formats, there are limited roster maintenance duties and Fantasy owners can afford to be patient. Don’t get frustrated if your season starts slowly. Brad Keselowski was 27th in the Cup standings one quarter of the way through the season and made the Chase. At the same point of the season, Juan Pablo Montoya was ninth – he finished 21st in the standings. Keselowski wasn’t expected to make such a giant push, but it goes to show you never to overreact. Nothing stays the same in Fantasy NASCAR for long.
a. After eight DNFs in 2010, Montoya led all drivers with 99.55 Percentage of Laps Completed (10,602 of 10,650) and zero DNFs in 2011.
8. Fourteen different drivers won a Sprint Cup event in 2009. Thirteen difference drivers won a Sprint Cup event in 2010. In 2011, 18 different drivers took a Checkered Flag in a Sprint Cup event. Don’t get mesmerized by the standings and don’t be afraid to make a gutsy call. Playing it safe all the time won’t win your league.
a. Tony Stewart has at least one win in 13 straight seasons.
b. If you’re new to the game, get to know the different types of tracks. I’ll break down the tracks for you each week in my weekly Picks and Points Previews. For newcomers, you can learn the game as you go along and still be very competitive. Again, there’s only one Cup race per week, and we do a lot of the research for you.
9. Denny Hamlin missed the Chase and probably had a hand in ruining more than a few Fantasy seasons in 2011. But he ranked in the Top 12 in Driver Rating (11th), Average Running Position (10th), Fastest Laps Run (ninth), Fastest Green Flag Speed (10th), Laps in the Top 15 (seventh), Quality Passes (ninth) and Laps Led (eighth). As much as Fantasy owners hate Hamlin for his disappointing 2011 season, the Loop Data shows he was pretty solid. In the court of public opinion, emotion will always win over fact. In the court of Fantasy Racing, I’ll take the facts every time.
10. Don’t get frustrated if your driver doesn’t qualify well. The very best drivers can easily make their way up from the back of the field and finish strong. Just one driver took a Checkered Flag from the pole in 2011 (Ryan Newman at Loudon).
a. Jeff Gordon has at least one pole in 19 straight seasons.
11. Think of Fantasy NASCAR as a Fantasy fusion between baseball and football. Like baseball, you can rely heavily on past stats, and it becomes fun to scrutinize the numbers. Like pro football, there is only one Cup event per week, so you don’t have to feel overwhelmed in preparation. There’s even less weekly prep with limited free-agent pickups. So sit back and watch your drivers roll!
a. It becomes a challenge when the NFL and NASCAR seasons converge. If you’re going to take this game seriously, watch the 15 minute (approximately) Race Rewinds on NASCAR.com to get caught up.
b. If you also play Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy NASCAR won’t interfere with your roster management very much. Just make sure your NASCAR lineups are locked in every Friday or Saturday night and baseball lineups on Sunday nights.
12. Aric Almirola will run his first full Cup season at the wheel of the No. 43 RPM Ford. He had one Top Five in nine Cup starts in 2010. He finished fourth in the 2011 Nationwide standings with 18 Top 10s. He’ll be a nice piece to round out snake draft teams, or to add to star-studded auction or salary cap squads.
a. Fantasy owners must pay attention to more than just the overall standings or jostling for Chase positioning. Keep an eye on battles to stay in the Top 35 in owner’s points and the race for Rookie of the Year. During the first five races on the schedule, pay close attention to who must qualify based on time, also who will be vying to stay in the Top 35.
b. Take time to watch qualifying and practices, or at the very least check in on the results. Don’t overanalyze the performances, but the more you can eyeball drivers, the more confident you will be in making weekly selections and collecting qualifying bonus points.
13. Marcos Ambrose proved he’s not just a one-trick pony, posting three Top Fives and 10 Top 10s in non-road course races in 2011.
a. Add a road course specialist and stash him on the reserve list. You won’t use him maybe more than twice, but it’s nice to have Robby Gordon or Boris Said on your roster when Infineon and Watkins Glen appear on the schedule.
14. Tony Stewart led the points standings for three months in 2009. He didn’t lead a single week in 2010. He didn’t win a race until the Chase in 2011. Fantasy owners can count on two things from Smoke. One is he’s totally unpredictable. Two, he’ll come through somehow, some way for Fantasy owners.
http://rotoexperts.com/12136/2012-sprint-cup-deluxe-rankings-2/
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