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Jesus Montero Can’t Catch A Break

Ben Carsley October 1, 2012 2:47PM EST
With the 2012 minor league season in the rearview mirror and the MLB regular season about to join it, it’s time to reevaluate my preseason prospect rankings.

It’s always difficult to find a balance between upside and probability when grading prospects, so looking back on my preseason methods and looking to adjust heading forward is always a useful task. For readers, these reviews will serve as a one-stop shop to catch up on how all of 2012’s prominent prospects performed and how their stock has been affected.

Jesus Montero’s 2012 campaign was a disappointment, but remember that he retains catcher eligibility headed into 2013. Photo by hj_west.

This is not a re-ranking of these prospects, nor is it a new prospect list. It’s simply a review of how I ranked the players before the season began, along with some analysis of what went right, what went wrong and everything in between.

To kick things off, let’s review my preseason catcher rankings and see who lived up to the hype, who disappointed and who’s in good shape moving forward. We’ll also give you an early look at some new names who should be relevant in 2013 and beyond.

(PR = Preseason Positional Ranking, Pre/Mid = Preseason/Midseason Top 100 Ranking, NR = Not rated, G = Graduated to MLB. Starred* players are no longer prospect eligible.)


On The Upswing

PR Player, Tm
3. Travis D’Arnaud, TOR .333/.380/.595 in AAA before season ending knee injury. Stud in the making.


4. Gary Sanchez, NYY Highest ceiling of any C prospect in minors, could see AA in 2013, MLB in 2014


5. Wilin Rosario, COL* His power plus Coors Field = Top 10 Fantasy catcher for 2013 and beyond.


6. Yasmani Grandal, SD* With Nick Hundleyfalling apart, Grandal could be Top 15 Fantasy C next season 54/33
9. Tommy Joseph, PHI Trade to Philly helps future power potential, path to MLB starting gig


10. Welington Castillo, CHC* Should enter 2013 as Cubs starting C, has pop, just don’t expect AVG (.375 BABIP)



Staying Static

PR Player, Tm Analysis Pre/Mid
1. Jesus Montero, SEA* AVG, OBP disappointed, but still enters 2013 with C eligibility and big upside


8. Derek Norris, OAK* Has performed poorly in MLB, but could reach 400 PA, 15+ HR in 2013


11. Blake Swihart, BOS Posted pedestrian numbers in A ball, but upside as Top 10 Fantasy C remains


12. Tony Sanchez, PIT Struggled in AAA, but will likely see MLB time in 2013, still has NL-Only potential



Swaying Backwards

PR Player, Tm Analysis Pre/Mid
2. Devin Mesoraco, CIN* Very disappointing year should see him start 2013 as MLB backup 6/G
7. Ryan Lavarnway, BOS* Still believe in hit and power tools, but missed chance to cement starter status


13. J.T. Realmuto, MIA One of my favorite sleepers scuffled badly in High-A, saw big power drop


14. Christian Bethancourt, ATL Looking like all-defense MLB backup at this point, borderline non-Fantasy prospect


15. Sebastian Valle, PHI Still has pop but unacceptable OBP, and newfound org competition in Joseph


New Names To Consider: Jorge Alfaro (TEX), Rob Brantly (MIA), Clint Coulter (MIL), Austin Hedges (SD), Wyatt Mathisen (PIT), Will Swanner (COL), Stryker Trahan (ARI), Mike Zunino (SEA)


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