As always, we use SOBB (breakdown here) as the initial base when projecting a pitcher’s future performance.
Range of starting pitcher SOBBs (K-BB%) and the values they hold.
Range of relief pitcher SOBBs (K-BB%) and the values they hold.
Cheers or Tears
Sam Dyson, TEX – As with Jeanmar Gomez, who we covered last week, Dyson could be out of a job – well, closer’s job – by the time you read this. Dyson has blown three saves already with a 33.00 ERA (no, not a typo) and just two strikeouts to three walks in 3.0 IP. If not for Matt Bush suffering through an AC joint injury, Dyson might have lost the job already. Go pick up Jeremy Jeffress now. Dyson had a respectable ERA in each of the last three years, topping out at 2.63 in 2015, but he’s never been an elite level closer thanks to his mediocre strikeout ability. Dyson’s SOBB was 9.9, 16.2 and 11.2 the last three seasons, while Bush was 19.3 last year and 25.0 so far this season. As for Jeffress, his SOBB isn’t much better than Dyson’s, but he did save 27 games last year, which gives him the advantage for experience in the bullpen. Dyson could recover, but as stated, he could also be a setup man before long.