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Fantasy Baseball: Keuchel Winning the Cy Young? Harvey and Moore Droppable?

Jake Ciely Senior Writer May 4, 2017 10:31AM EDT
Dallas Keuchel looks like a Cy Young winner, Jose Quintana is turning the corner, Matt Harvey and Matt Moore look like doormats and Bud Norris has turned into a reliable closer. Let’s see how many of these things are true in this week’s SOBB Your Way to Success.

As always, we use SOBB (breakdown here) as the initial base when projecting a pitcher’s future performance.

Range of starting pitcher SOBBs (K-BB%) and the values they hold.

SOBB Rating
20.00-plus Terrific
16.00-19.99 Great
13.00-15.99 Good
11.00-12.99 Average
8.00-10.99 Poor
under-7.99 Awful

Range of relief pitcher SOBBs (K-BB%) and the values they hold.

SOBB Rating
25.00-plus Terrific
20.00-24.99 Great
16.00-19.99 Good
12.00-15.99 Average
8.00-11.99 Poor
under-7.99 Awful

Cheers or Tears

Dallas Keuchel, HOU – It would be easy to toot my own horn about Keuchel’s bounceback season, but I’m not going to do that… and no, it’s not purely a modesty/non-braggadocious reason. The reason I’m not drooling over Keuchel is because while I expected a Top 20 bounceback season, I didn’t expect this, and Keuchel isn’t this good. Keuchel is not a Top 5 or even Top 10 pitcher. I introduced Keuchel with my prediction so you know this breakdown is coming from someone who is a big fan of Keuchel, and I’m not just some hater. Keuchel is sporting a terrific 1.21 ERA, but he’s been lucky. His BABIP is exceptionally low at .186 and his strand rate is up at 98.7 percent. Both of those are unsustainable. That’s part of the reason for Keuchel’s xFIP of 3.18. While Keuchel can certainly post a sub-3.00 ERA, he’s not likely to repeat his Cy Young winning season thanks to a lower strikeout rate. Keuchel had an 18.1 SOBB in 2015, but it’s down to 15.2 this year due to a slight drop in K% and increase in BB%. Don’t mistake this for saying Keuchel isn’t good. Again, he’s a Top 20 starter. But if someone wants to offer you Cy Young value in a trade (Top 5-10 return value), you need to sell high.

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