As always, we use SOBB (breakdown here) as the initial base when projecting a pitcher’s future performance.
Range of starting pitcher SOBBs (K-BB%) and the values they hold.
Range of relief pitcher SOBBs (K-BB%) and the values they hold.
Cheers or Tears
Jake Arrieta, CHC – Rest assured, Arrieta is not this bad, not even close. While no one expects Arrieta to repeat his 2015 season, no one should think Arrieta has reverted to his Orioles days. The fact is, Arrieta has been extremely unlucky so far, and that includes the unfortunate task of pitching in Colorado during his last start. A telling stat is Arrieta’s SOBB. It’s actually higher than it was last year at 18.8 (14.3 in 2016) thanks to an improved strikeout rate and decreased walk rate. Digging deeper, Arrieta has a BABIP of .364 compared to .246 and .241 the last two years and a career mark of .270. He also has an extremely low LOB% of 58.5 (career 71.3). Lastly, Arrieta’s allowed home runs are up to 1.4 per nine, compared to a 0.80 career mark and 0.39 and 0.73 the past two seasons. All of these metrics will normalize, and as they do, Arrieta will be more like the pitcher we saw last year. That pitcher is a low-3.00, low-1.00 WHIP, Top 15 option thanks to the added wins and strikeouts. Buy now before Arrieta turns the corner.