2017 Fantasy Baseball | Streaming Pitchers | Waiver Wire

Is Jake Arrieta Broken? New Closers and Two Must-Add Starters

Jake Ciely, Senior Writer May 11, 2017

Congratulations to Jake Ciely for being the No.1 Fantasy Baseball Ranker for the last two consecutive years!
What happened to the Jake Arrieta we used to know? What kind of opportunities do the Giants and Tigers bullpens hold? And should you believe in two hot starts for some undrafted pitchers? We answer all of those questions in this week’s SOBB Your Way to Success.

As always, we use SOBB (breakdown here) as the initial base when projecting a pitcher’s future performance.

Range of starting pitcher SOBBs (K-BB%) and the values they hold.

SOBB Rating
20.00-plus Terrific
16.00-19.99 Great
13.00-15.99 Good
11.00-12.99 Average
8.00-10.99 Poor
under-7.99 Awful

Range of relief pitcher SOBBs (K-BB%) and the values they hold.

SOBB Rating
25.00-plus Terrific
20.00-24.99 Great
16.00-19.99 Good
12.00-15.99 Average
8.00-11.99 Poor
under-7.99 Awful

 

Cheers or Tears

Jake Arrieta, CHC – Rest assured, Arrieta is not this bad, not even close. While no one expects Arrieta to repeat his 2015 season, no one should think Arrieta has reverted to his Orioles days. The fact is, Arrieta has been extremely unlucky so far, and that includes the unfortunate task of pitching in Colorado during his last start. A telling stat is Arrieta’s SOBB. It’s actually higher than it was last year at 18.8 (14.3 in 2016) thanks to an improved strikeout rate and decreased walk rate. Digging deeper, Arrieta has a BABIP of .364 compared to .246 and .241 the last two years and a career mark of .270. He also has an extremely low LOB% of 58.5 (career 71.3). Lastly, Arrieta’s allowed home runs are up to 1.4 per nine, compared to a 0.80 career mark and 0.39 and 0.73 the past two seasons. All of these metrics will normalize, and as they do, Arrieta will be more like the pitcher we saw last year. That pitcher is a low-3.00, low-1.00 WHIP, Top 15 option thanks to the added wins and strikeouts. Buy now before Arrieta turns the corner.

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