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AT&T Byron Nelson DFS Golf Picks

Matt Rumack May 17, 2017 11:01AM EDT

Course: TPC Four Seasons Resort (Dallas, Texas)

Yardage: 7,166 yards – Par 70

Recent Champions:

2012: Jason Dufner

2013: Sang-Moon Bae

2014: Brendan Todd

2015: Steven Bowditch

2016: Sergio Garcia

Overview: Si Wooooooo! Kim took home the Players Championship Sunday for his second career PGA Tour win. Despite having just won a hair under $2 million, a photo was posted of him flying coach, in the middle seat, back home. I don’t know what this says about me, but I refuse to sit anywhere but the window when I fly. His modesty is unparalleled on Tour and clearly, it’s worked for him. You do you Si Woo.

Jason Day will be a favorite pick on the Tour after this week. Photo by Debby Wong/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire

Jason Day will be a favorite pick on the Tour after this week. Photo by Debby Wong/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire

The PGA Tour heads back to Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson, formerly known as the Byron Nelson Classic. After a stacked field for the Players Championship, the Byron Nelson will boast a quality field of its own that includes the world’s number one, Dustin Johnson, and some of his Top 10 mates in Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, and Sergio Garcia. A handful of other players from the Top 50 in the world will be there, along with a crop of players trying to work their way into the Top 60 to make the U.S Open.

For the final year, this tournament will be held at the TPC Four Seasons in Dallas, before moving to Trinity Forest Golf Club next year. TPC Four seasons is another ball-strikers course, as evidenced by some of its past champions. At 7,166 yards, it is one of the shorter courses on Tour, although it is only a par 70. Most years this course plays between the fifth and 15th-hardest course played on the PGA Tour. The course’s two par 5s are both reachable, there are two par 4s that measure over 500 yards, and the par 3s all measure at least 175 yards, so birdie or better % and proximity from 175-200 yards are key stats this week. This week, Par 4 Birdie % will correlate well to success since the course has 12 par 4s. The course has a lot of water hazards scattered throughout, and very large undulated greens where you need to find the right portions to have chance at birdie.  With this in mind, look at great ball strikers who rank highly in proximity to the hole, and/or great scramblers who can make up for missing the green.  The weather forecast is showing that the wind will be in the double-digits most of the week. If that holds, scrambling may be more important than usual this week. If the wind starts whipping around making it hard to find greens, players will need to scramble to save par to contend.

AT&T Byron Nelson DFS Golf Picks

Jason Day ($10,100):  This is simply a gut-feeling pick. Jason hasn’t been playing his best golf this season, nor has he ranked very well in the statistics that I highlighted. Three solid rounds at the Players Championship, and a respectable showing at the Masters has me convinced that he’s ready to begin his quest back to being the number one golfer in the world. His big drives (38th on Tour in distance) should set him up in good position to attack these large greens. If my gut-feeling isn’t enough for you to get on board, Day has also had success at this event. He won the event in 2010 and had two more Top 10s between 2010-12. (he has not played the event since 2013) It’s only a matter of time before Day recaptures the form that got him a major and the world’s number one ranking in 2015. There won’t be many more weeks in which Day isn’t heavily owned; grab him for this short window of unpopularity.

Brandt Snedeker ($8,400): Snedeker is coming off an injury to his hand, so I suspect that he will be lightly-owned due to the theory of rust. Sneddy has no weakness in his game and has always been one of the best putters on Tour. He ranks 26th in Par 4 birdie %, 20th in scrambling, and is above average in proximity to the hole on his approach shots. His ball striking has been solid this season. If that continues, his stellar short game will have him in contention.

Russell Henley ($8,300) Henley is playing the best golf of his career this year. Despite a tough ball striking week at the Players, he still managed to finish 35th thanks to being fourth in the field in scrambling for the week. Henley gains on the field in every statistical category, with putting (13th in strokes-gained) and strokes gained off-the-tee (22nd) being where he gains the most. That’s a great combination for success in this tournament. He also is Top 15 on Tour in par 4 scoring average. Statistically, he is made for this event.

Byeong Hun-An ($8,000): Byeong Hun-An is one of those players who gains a ton on the field with his ball striking only to give it back with well below-average putting. With this being a ball strikers course, An should be able to compete here. He is 18th on tour in Par 4 birdie %, 21st in strokes gained off-the-tee, and 32nd in strokes gained approach. It’s the same old story with him, make a few putts and he should be a valuable asset for daily Fantasy. At the very least, you can expect him to make the cut, as he’s only missed one cut all season.

Ryan Moore ($7,600): Ryan Moore had a pedestrian performance at the Players last week in my lineup. He appears to fit the billing for this tournament, though. He excels in shots from 175-200 yards (26th on tour), gains a lot of strokes on the approach (21st), and is pretty well above average in par 4 scoring and par 4 birdie %. He has made the cut in nearly every event daily Fantasy has had to offer (8/9), and has the ability to compete in deeper field events such as this one. He could provide value well above that his $7,600 price tag

Sung Kang ($7,400) Sung Kang has burst onto the PGA and Daily Fantasy scene with solid finishes in his last four starts. (2, 11, 6, 30) Kang has a great combination for this course. He excels in Par 4 scoring (22nd) and gains lots of strokes in ball striking (35th off-the-tee, 45th on approach). Kang is above average in scrambling and strokes-gained putting, so his touch around the greens doesn’t diminish his good ball striking. After watching his fellow countryman Si Woo Kim take home the Players, he should be motivated to get out there and show that Si Woo isn’t the only Korean who can shine out there.

 

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