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Betting Talk: Finding the Sweet Spot for Baseball Bets

Daniel Dobish September 20, 2017 11:13AM EST
This column appears courtesy of MyBookie.ag

Baseball is a funny sport. For instance, the Red Sox and Orioles hooked up Monday night at Camden Yards and combined for a total of 18 runs in an 11-inning marathon. On Tuesday, the teams were scoreless going into the 11th before the Red Sox plated a run to win it. It can be an unpredictable sport at times, especially in the month of September, but there are still plenty of winners if you look in the right spots.

  1. Cardinals at Reds (under 9 1/2)

The Cardinals and Reds continue their series at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, and the ‘under’ looks like a great play. St. Louis has been getting solid pitching from Luke Weaver lately, as he has allowed just four total earned runs over his past 31.1 innings while the Cards have won each of his past five starts. The ‘under’ has cashed in each of his past two outings, while hitting in nine of their past 12 games overall. The under is also 8-3 in the past 11 for the Cards against a right-handed starter while going 7-3 over their past 10 inside the division.

As far as the Reds are concerned, the under is 5-1 in their past six vs. RHP while going 5-1 in the past six inside the NL Central. While the over is 4-0-1 across Rookie Davis’ past five outings, the offense will be hard pressed to push runs across against the red-hot Weaver. The under is a nice value at GABP.

  1. Rockies at Giants (over 8 1/2)

    Luke Weaver will keep the Giants offense in check tonight. AP Photo/Jeff Roberson

Two pitchers with extremely high ERAs will go head-to-head in San Francisco when Tyler Chatwood and Matt Moore hook up in a day game. After briefly being banished to the bullpen, Chatwood is back and he has allowed just one earned run over his past 13.2 innings. However, he isn’t going very deep into games. He has also allowed a whopping 73 walks across just 136 innings this season, and he has uncorked 11 wild pitches. He hasn’t been as bad on the road, but he still has served up nine homers in 71.1 road frames.

Moore has been even worse, posting a 5.39 ERA over 167 innings with a 5-14 record and 62 walks. It looked like he was piecing things together with three consecutive quality starts from Aug. 13-23, but he has allowed 11 earned runs over his past 18 innings. The ‘over’ is 5-1 in Moore’s past six starts inside the division, while hitting in four of Chatwood’s past five starts overall. The over is also 5-0 in Colorado’s past five road outings against a southpaw, and 5-1 in the past six overall vs. LHP.

  1. Diamondbacks over Padres (-145)

In gambling, you have to have a short memory. I was personally burnt putting a few units on Patrick Corbin in the series opener, but the Padres doubled up the Snakes 4-2 on Monday. San Diego also won Game 2, so Arizona will be wheeling out All-Star Robbie Ray looking to avoid the broom.

Arizona has won each of Ray’s past five outings while going 7-1 over his past eight on the road against teams with a losing overall record. They’re also 17-7 over their past 24 inside the division despite their 0-2 start in this series. Arizona is 8-2 over their past 10 road outings, and 13-3 in Ray’s past 16 starts against a team with a losing overall mark, too. As far as San Diego is concerned, they have dropped the past five when rookie Dinelson Lamet is on the bump, while going 0-7 in his past seven tries against teams with a winning overall mark.

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