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2017 Fantasy Football: Week 6 Matchup Rankings, Defenses

Jake Ciely Senior Writer October 12, 2017 12:02AM EDT
Reminder: Before we get into the Week 6 matchup rankings – Fantasy Points Adjusted for Defense (FPAD) is a calculation that can be the difference between celebrating a win or cursing a high-scoring option on your bench. I developed it years ago, and it accounts for defensive quality of play by position, adjusts for game situations and strength of offenses and spits out an adjusted Fantasy Points allowed. Using Fantasy Football Points allowed is valuable in itself to help make lineup decisions, but it’s imperfect, as a team facing Aaron Rodgers and the Packers should give up more points and passing yards than one facing Jared Goff and the Rams. This isn’t a tool to argue benching Mike Evans for Robert Woods, but it helps you decide which RB3 is a better play or which WR4 could put up a WR2 type week.

Fantasy Football Week 6 Matchup Rankings

QB Matchup Rankings

RankTeamOppFPAD RankTeamOppFPAD
1New York JetsNE28.115New York GiantsDEN15.0
2Tennessee TitansIND23.616Oakland RaidersLAC14.6
3Indianapolis ColtsTEN22.917Baltimore RavensCHI14.3
4Arizona CardinalsTB22.818Minnesota VikingsGB14.2
5Houston TexansCLE22.219San Francisco 49ersWSH14.0
6Tampa Bay BuccaneersARI20.320Miami DolphinsATL14.0
7Detroit LionsNO20.121Jacksonville JaguarsLAR13.6
8Denver BroncosNYG19.322Atlanta FalconsMIA13.5
9Pittsburgh SteelersKC19.123New Orleans SaintsDET13.0
10Washington RedskinsSAF18.624Philadelphia EaglesCAR12.4
11Cleveland BrownsHOU18.425Green Bay PackersMIN12.2
12Carolina PanthersPHI17.326Chicago BearsBAL10.4
13New England PatriotsNYJ17.327Kansas City ChiefsPIT8.0
14Los Angeles ChargersOAK17.128Los Angeles RamsJAX6.8

Jacoby Brissett vs. Brian Hoyer

Streaming quarterbacks is a bit tricky this week given the byes and matchups. Brissett was a solid option last week and remains one again in Week 6. Against the 49ers, Brissett threw for 314 yards, and while he didn’t throw for a touchdown, he did run for a score. Brissett isn’t Deshaun Watson on the ground, but he can scramble, adding to his potential. Speaking of potential, the Titans have the third highest FPAD for quarterbacks. Russell Wilson and Watson both threw for four touchdowns against the Titans, and they have allowed at least one touchdown in every game, including the miserable Jay Cutler last week.

As for Hoyer, he’s had some streaming appeal with over 330 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams and Colts. People are going to see the Redskins and assume this is good streaming opportunity, especially with Josh Norman. Not so fast. The rest of the secondary is actually quite good. The Redskins have a modestly-low FPAD and have allowed just five touchdowns in four games while registering four interceptions. Alex Smith is skewing the FPPG allowed thanks to his 56 yards rushing and touchdown on the ground. Hoyer isn’t doing that and isn’t a good bet for a big game.

Also Good: Marcus Mariota – On the other side of the Brissett matchup, which is the second best one of the week… if he plays.

Also Bad: Jared Goff – A breakout season might still be possible, but a decent game against the Jaguars defense is not.

Other Matchup Boosted QBs: Josh McCown, Carson Palmer, Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, Matthew Stafford

RB Matchup Rankings

RankTeamOppFPAD RankTeamOppFPAD
1New York JetsNE27.615Indianapolis ColtsTEN19.9
2Jacksonville JaguarsLAR27.316Baltimore RavensCHI18.1
3New England PatriotsNYJ24.917New Orleans SaintsDET14.3
4Kansas City ChiefsPIT24.418Arizona CardinalsTB14.3
5Washington RedskinsSAF24.119Houston TexansCLE13.7
6Oakland RaidersLAC23.720Pittsburgh SteelersKC13.4
7Denver BroncosNYG22.921San Francisco 49ersWSH12.8
8Los Angeles RamsJAX22.722Atlanta FalconsMIA12.6
9Miami DolphinsATL22.023Philadelphia EaglesCAR12.4
10Tennessee TitansIND21.924Cleveland BrownsHOU12.0
11Detroit LionsNO21.625Tampa Bay BuccaneersARI11.9
12Chicago BearsBAL21.226Carolina PanthersPHI11.8
13Minnesota VikingsGB21.127Green Bay PackersMIN10.6
14Los Angeles ChargersOAK20.328New York GiantsDEN8.1

Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson vs. Giants RBs

Rob Kelley is doubtful this week, which puts Perine in line to start with Thompson providing the passing game spark as usual. The 49ers are on the road, and the west to east coast swing is always tough on teams. Additionally, the 49ers are already weak against the run with the fifth highest FPAD and the third most receptions and receiving yards allowed to running backs. Marlon Mack just ripped off 91 yards on nine carries last week, and Chris Carson had 93 rushing yards in Week 2 with Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey combining for 112 rushing, 55 receiving in Week 1.

week 6 matchup rankings

John Brown and the Cardinals WRs are set up for a big week. Photo Credit: AP Photo/Michael Perez

The Giants are in disarray, and it’s understandable after the Week 5 travesty. There is no coming back from that, and there is no hope trying to recover against the Broncos… in Denver. The Broncos used to be middle of the pack against the run and dominant against the pass. The script flipped this year, while the truth about the Giants offensive line has remained: it’s one of the worst run blocking units in the league. The Giants, whether it’s Gallman, Orleans Darkwa or anyone else, won’t be able to run on the Broncos, especially with no passing threat to soften the defense.

Also Good: Marshawn Lynch – Here’s hoping he can fall into the end zone again, but also sell high if he does have a good game.

Also Bad: Isaiah Crowell – Maybe Kevin Hogan can spark the offense and Crowell, but I’d prefer to wait it out on my bench if possible.

Other Matchup Boosted RBs: Leonard Fournette, Mike Gillislee, James White, Kareem Hunt, C.J. Anderson, Todd Gurley

WR Matchup Rankings

RankTeamOppFPAD RankTeamOppFPAD
1Arizona CardinalsTB35.215Cleveland BrownsHOU20.3
2Pittsburgh SteelersKC31.516New Orleans SaintsDET19.7
3Indianapolis ColtsTEN30.017Philadelphia EaglesCAR19.4
4New York JetsNE29.618New England PatriotsNYJ19.2
5Carolina PanthersPHI29.519Houston TexansCLE18.3
6Tampa Bay BuccaneersARI29.420New York GiantsDEN18.2
7Washington RedskinsSAF27.921Atlanta FalconsMIA17.8
8Tennessee TitansIND26.622Miami DolphinsATL16.0
9Oakland RaidersLAC24.523Jacksonville JaguarsLAR14.7
10Detroit LionsNO23.824Denver BroncosNYG13.3
11Minnesota VikingsGB22.225Chicago BearsBAL13.2
12Baltimore RavensCHI21.526Los Angeles RamsJAX11.2
13Green Bay PackersMIN20.427San Francisco 49ersWSH10.8
14Los Angeles ChargersOAK20.328Kansas City ChiefsPIT9.4

John Brown vs. Pierre Garcon

When 100 percent healthy, Brown is the Cardinals best receiver. Yes, even over Larry Fitzgerald. The problem is that Brown is never 100 percent, but he’s close and looked good last week. The Buccaneers are the worst team in FPAD for receivers, already allowing 10 receivers to top 50 yards, and they’ve only played four games. Those 10 receivers all hit double-digit scores in PPR, and both Fitzgerald and Brown can have big games together. In fact, don’t be surprised if Jaron Brown gets into the mix too.

As for Garcon, I’ve been a supporter all year, and people will clamor for the “revenge game” factor. However, let’s go back to Hoyer and the matchup. Even without Norman, the Redskins have more talent in their secondary than the 49ers do at receiver. Only one receiver has scored against the Redskins, and that was Nelson Agholor back in Week 1. On top of that, he’s also the only receiver to top 63 yards with Alshon Jeffery, Sammy Watkins, Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper and Tyreek Hill all scoring 3.8 or less in Non-PPR (8.5 PPR).

Also Good: Devin Funchess – At some point, people will start buying in… only to see him finally have a bad game of course.

Also Bad: Tyreek Hill – The Steelers defense is up there with the Seahawks and Jaguars against the pass. Start him, but be ready for a quieter week.

Other Matchup Boosted WRs: T.Y. Hilton, Jermaine Kearse, Robby Anderson, Kelvin Benjamin, DeSean Jackson, Terrelle Pryor, Jamison Crowder, Rishard Matthews

TE Matchup Rankings

RankTeamOppFPAD RankTeamOppFPAD
1Denver BroncosNYG17.715Los Angeles ChargersOAK6.6
2San Francisco 49ersWSH14.216Tampa Bay BuccaneersARI6.6
3New York JetsNE11.617Baltimore RavensCHI6.6
4Houston TexansCLE11.218Miami DolphinsATL6.4
5Chicago BearsBAL11.119Philadelphia EaglesCAR6.1
6Tennessee TitansIND10.620New England PatriotsNYJ5.8
7Detroit LionsNO10.521Indianapolis ColtsTEN5.7
8Green Bay PackersMIN9.622Jacksonville JaguarsLAR5.3
9New Orleans SaintsDET9.123Cleveland BrownsHOU5.2
10Los Angeles RamsJAX9.024Oakland RaidersLAC5.2
11New York GiantsDEN8.725Minnesota VikingsGB5.1
12Atlanta FalconsMIA8.426Kansas City ChiefsPIT4.7
13Pittsburgh SteelersKC7.927Arizona CardinalsTB3.9
14Carolina PanthersPHI6.728Washington RedskinsSAF2.3

Austin Seferian-Jenkins vs. Kyle Rudolph

Seferian-Jenkins has 15 receptions in his three games and is a favorite option of Josh McCown. The Patriots are going to score plenty and push the Jets to keep up (or try). Part of the reason the Patriots defense allows so many Fantasy points is due to their offense forcing the issue. Of course, the defense also stinks so far and has the third highest FPAD against tight ends, so roll ASJ out there in PPR leagues – he takes a hit in Non-PPR.

Rudolph has struggled this year, and while part of it can be attributed to the quarterback volatility, he’s also being asked to block more. That has led to less targets and opportunities for Fantasy points. While he was able to score last week, this week is worrisome for his upside. The Packers have a 5.1 FPAD for tight ends, haven’t allowed a tight end touchdown yet and just 14 receptions for 142 yards this year. That’s with Jason Witten accounting for 8-61 himself.

Also Good: A.J. Derby – Start your tight ends against the Giants. There is just some risk, as Virgil Green could snake the touchdown.

Also Bad: Jared Cook – As always, good luck predicting his 3-4 good games, and this week looks to be one of the bad ones with the matchup.

Other Matchup Boosted TEs: Zach Miller, Delanie Walker, Eric Ebron (ugh), Martellus Bennett, Coby Fleener

 

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