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The Masters: DFS Key Stats And Roster Construction

The Masters: DFS Key Stats And Roster Construction
Dom Cintorino April 2, 2018 4:21PM EDT
With Ian Poulter punching the final ticket to Augusta, the most anticipated Masters in quite some time has finally arrived. All eyes are going to be on Augusta National this week for the return of Tiger Woods. Since this is the first major of the year, that means DraftKings’ first Millionaire Maker is here as well. With over 200,000 entries, ownership is going to be key. This field features 83 golfers within the Top 50 and ties making the cut, as well as anyone within 10 strokes of the lead after the second round. It is safe to say that you can count 15-20 players out with past champions playing in the event who just cannot contend. This leaves you with about 60 golfers to pick from, which helps narrow down your roster construction.

Key Statistics
 

  • Greens in Regulation
  • SG: Tee to Green
  • Ball Striking

 

Recent Form Bodes Well for Previous Winners

We all know that it takes a special type of player to win The Masters. History shows that recent form can play a significant role when looking at past winners. Looking back all the way to 2010, the previous eight winners all came into the week in superb form. Jordan Spieth (2015) was the other winner of the eight to miss a cut prior to an appearance at Augusta. Here’s a look at the previous winners’ form heading into The Masters:

2017: Sergio Garcia 3/3 (two Top-15s)

2016: Danny Willett 2/2 (T3, T22)

2015: Jordan Spieth 7/8 with six Top-10s (T7, T7, T4, 1, 2, T2)

2014: Bubba Watson 5/5 (one WD) with four Top-10s

2013: Adam Scott 5/5  (three Top-10s)

2012: Bubba Watson 8/8 all T18 or better (four Top-5s)

2011: Charl Schwartzel 5/5 (three Top-25s)

2010: Phil Mickelson 7/7 (four Top-25s)

Roster Construction

Masters week on DK typically leads to softer pricing. A strong, limited field plays into this so rosters can have some diversity. Having such soft pricing can be tricky. There is no need to feel like you have to spend all $50,000 of your salary cap, even in cash games. We see Dustin Johnson as the only player over $11k this week, which should lower his ownership quite significantly. DailyRoto projects DJ to be about 17% owned. Of the four players priced above $10,000, this is the second lowest projected ownership. When building your Masters lineup on DraftKings, selecting from the top tier is a difficult, but highly important task.

The Picks

Jordan Spieth ($10,400)

It should not take much to talk yourself into rostering Jordan Spieth at The Masters. With a course history featuring a win, a pair of T2s, and a T11 last year, the numbers speak for themselves. Spieth is coming off of his best outing of the 2018 season with a T2 at the Houston Open. His consistency over four days is what we have been looking for. DailyRoto projects Spieth to carry a 22.49% ownership this week at The Masters. Even if this number rises throughout the week, roster Spieth with confidence. His putting stats have been lagging behind where they normally are,  Being $10,400 does not put you in much of a hole moving forward as the average salary per player remaining is just over $7,900. In terms of recent form, course history, and price point, Spieth makes the most sense when deciding between players above $10k.

Secondary Option: Justin Thomas ($10,800)

Jon Rahm ($9,300)

In this cluttered range, Rahm is going to get overlooked. A majority of people are going to be leaning heavily on Justin Rose ($9,200) and Paul Casey ($8,800). Aside from Rahm’s 0-2-1 showing in the Match Play event, he is having a great start to his 2018 season. Rahm has made six of six cuts with four Top-20s, which includes a win at CareerBuilder, and a solo second the week before at the Tournament of Champions. DailyRoto has him ranked as the ninth best overall value on DraftKings with an ownership projection just over 15%. This number could drop into the single digits in the Millionaire Maker when lineups lock Thursday morning. He never really got it going in his debut last year and still managed a T27. Rahm should be a nice pivot play in this $8,800-$10,000 range and can easily go under owned. Look for Rahm to be in contention this weekend at Augusta.

The Masters: DFS Key Stats And Roster Construction 1

Secondary Option: Justin Rose ($9,200)

 Alex Noren ($8,100)

We talked about entering Masters week in good form, well take a look at Alex Noren. He has made all six cuts this season, including a third place finish in the Match Play event last time. Of his made cuts, four of them were Top-20 finishes with two being inside of the Top-3. Although he was cut in his debut at Augusta last year, this is the form that we are looking for coming into the week. Noren shouldn’t be too popular this week, as DailyRoto projects him to be just over 11% owned. He currently ranks inside the Top-20 in SG: Tee to Green, and Ball Striking. When you sort the DailyRoto Projection model to focus on recent form only, Noren shows up as a Top-5 value play.

Secondary Option: Hideki Matsuyama ($8,400)

Pat Perez ($6,900)

With such soft pricing this week, rostering a player sub-$7k allows you tons of wiggle room. Pat Perez rates out as the best overall value on DailyRoto’s Projection model and is only expected to carry a 12.11% ownership. He had a great fall finish, gaining a win at the CIMB Classic and carried his form over to make every cut so far in 2018. Perez currently ranks fifth in GIR, and 15th in Ball Striking. DailyRoto’s Finish Probabilities love Perez, giving him the best chance to make the cut out of anyone priced $7,200 and below (79.71%). At just $6,900, Perez does not need a Top-10 finish to return value. Starting your team with Perez and Noren leaves you with just over an $8,700 average for your remaining four slots. His price might drive his ownership up a bit, but Perez is worth a look in all formats.

Secondary Option: Adam Hadwin ($7,200)

Millionaire Maker Dark Horses

Ownership Projections from DataGolf on DailyRoto.com

 Jason Day (10.69%) – Second best win probability on DailyRoto.

Tyrell Hatton (7.11%) – two Top-10s in last three events.

Jimmy Walker (6.18%) – four consecutive cuts made at Augusta.

Daniel Berger (5.80%) – 2/2 at the masters with a T10 in 2016.

Charl Schwartzel (4.49%) – previous winner, solo third last season.

 

 

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