DraftKings Insights for the RBC Heritage
Looks like all the trends of past winners at Augusta were thrown out the window as “the bad guy,” Patrick Reed, held off Rickie Fowler and Jordan Spieth en route to putting on the green jacket. A comfortable lead heading into Sunday is never a sure thing, but Reed played solidly all day long, minimizing mistakes and forcing the field to catch him. This week we move on to the RBC Heritage, a much different style course and a different looking field. Harbour Town is a Par 71 that favors the shorter hitters. As we look at past champions of this event, it is clear what type of golfers excel here:
2017: Wesley Bryan
2016: Brendan Grace
2015: Jim Furyk
2014: Matt Kuchar
2013: Graeme McDowell
Here are some key statistics to focus on while constructing your DraftKings lineup.
RBC Heritage Key Statistics
- Par 4 Scoring
- Proximity to the Hole (Around the Green)
- Greens in Regulation (GIR)
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It’s clear that Dustin Johnson ($12,000) and Paul Casey ($11,300) are in a tier of their own in this field. As we have seen in the past, it is the shorter hitters who end up at the top of the leaderboard. Even though Dustin Johnson is the clear favorite, he is worth fading at this price-point. With so many players who rate out well down the board, it’s tough to start your lineup with Casey. Many will flock to Casey in cash, as they always do. Though Casey does seem like he is made for this type of course, there are very similar players at much better prices down the board. A roster construction of six players from the $7,500-$10,000 range might be the best way to go this week.
RBC Heritage (aka The Luke Donald Open)
Harbour Town GL
7,099 Yards | Par 71
29/50 in 2017 Difficulty (-0.325)
Baddeley -14 pic.twitter.com/8zCOUDB8yM
— Patrick Mayo (@ThePME) April 9, 2018
Tyrrell Hatton ($8,800) could very well be the most expensive player you need to roster. He played better over the weekend at Augusta but expressed his frustration about his game all week on Twitter. Even though he is priced as the 11th– most expensive player on DK, DailyRoto gives Hatton the fourth-best win probability (2.66%). Putting and short game are going to be a huge factor this week and Hatton is fifth in SG Putting and fourth in Proximity to the Hole Around the Green. This is a steal at just $8,800.
Adam Hadwin ($8,100) rates out the best of just about anyone. When looking at what types of players contend here, Hadwin seems to fit the mold. His win probability is the ninth-best in the field and DailyRoto gives him a 75.65 percent chance to make the cut. Hadwin is currently seventh in SG: Around the Green, 21st in Proximity to the Hole Around the Green, 29th in GIR, and 38th in Par 4 Scoring. He brings one of the safest floors you could ask for at a discounted price, and he is also in good form. Hadwin has yet to miss a cut and is riding a streak of four straight Top-24 finishes. He should be locked into your cash games.
Russell Knox ($7,800) might not be all that intriguing with the names surrounding him, but he is well suited for Harbour Town. Knox has shown that he can play here as he has made the cut in all four of his attempts here with two Top-10s and no finishes outside of the Top-20. It feels as though everyone has completely forgotten about Knox, but this course history cannot be ignored. He has not been playing all that bad this season and doesn’t rate out all that bad. Knox is 18th in GIR, 28th in Proximity to the Hole Around the Green, and 27th in SG Around the Green. Russell Knox makes for a sneaky tournament play and his course history provides a safe floor if you choose to roll him out in cash games.
Francesco Molinari ($7,500) has the best win probability of anyone priced under $8,800. DailyRoto loves him yet again this week and it is hard to beat the price you are getting him at. Molinari has played the even in each of the last two years with finishes of T22 and T45. He is riding a streak of three finishes of T26 or better and has missed just one cut so far this season. Molinari is fifth in SG Off the Tee and 25th in GIR. With accuracy being a key factor this week, look for Molinari to have another solid outing at Harbour Town. He is a safe cash game play but does not provide much upside in tournaments.
Bottom Barrel Value
- J. Spaun ($7,300) finished T6 here last year, ninth in Proximity to the Hole.
- Bill Haas ($7,200) four straight made cuts, ninth in SG: Around the Green.
- Brian Gay ($7,100) former winner, 16th in SG: Around the Green.
- Corey Conners ($6,800) nice floor at a minimal price, 22nd in GIR.
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