Week 10 Matchups Find Fantasy Talents in Miami

Jake Ciely, Senior Writer November 7, 2012

We’re headed into the back half of the Fantasy season, and matchups are more important than ever. With just two bye weeks left as well, who is out there that may help you win an important Week 10 matchup?

 

Quarterback Points Allowed
Rank Team Opp PPG
Rank Team Opp PPG
1 Atlanta Falcons NO 20.9 15 San Francisco 49ers STL 15.9
2 Miami Dolphins TEN 19.3 16 Dallas Cowboys PHI 14.1
3 New England Patriots BUF 19.5 17 Cincinnati Bengals NYG 15.1
4 Pittsburgh Steelers KC 17.4 18 Kansas City Chiefs PIT 11.8
5 Baltimore Ravens OAK 16.6 19 Oakland Raiders BAL 11.0
6 Jacksonville Jaguars IND 16.0 20 New Orleans Saints ATL 13.4
7 Detroit Lions MIN 18.1 21 Seattle Seahawks NYJ 12.0
8 Buffalo Bills NE 17.8 22 Carolina Panthers DEN 14.5
9 New York Giants CIN 16.1 23 Denver Broncos CAR 13.6
10 San Diego Chargers TB 17.3 24 Philadelphia Eagles DAL 11.6
11 Indianapolis Colts JAX 15.0 25 New York Jets SEA 11.4
12 Minnesota Vikings DET 14.9 26 Chicago Bears HOU 12.1
13 Tennessee Titans MIA 16.5 27 St Louis Rams SAF 10.5
14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers SAD 15.1 28 Houston Texans CHI 9.0

ACES IN THE HOLE

Skipping right past Matt Ryan, as you start the man no matter what at this point (let alone, in the best matchup of the week), Ryan Tannehill is going to make for a popular Aaron Rodgers fill-in. Tannehill is a risk, but he does have four double-digit games on the year. Tannehill is not a QB1, and likely not a high-end QB2, but in leagues where the pickings are slim, you could do much worse than a QB facing a Tennessee team allowing 19.3 FPPG, 282.7 passing yards and over two TDs per game to QBs.

Another “let’s skip past the obvious” QB with Tom Brady playing the Bills, we instead look to Ben Roethlisberger against the Chiefs. Big Ben has already found his way back into QB1 territory this year, but a matchup against Kansas City cements his status as a rather good QB1 in Week 10. The Chiefs allow 316.8 passing yards per game! Think Ben can’t exploit that even without Antonio Brown?

Owners looking for the high risk/reward play should take their Fantasy talents to Miami. Photo Credit Sports on me

Joe Flacco has fallen off quite a bit since that hot start. This is a good week for Flacco to get back on track as Baltimore hosts Oakland. With the Raiders struggling to find healthy RBs, the Ravens will likely have the ball quite a bit more than Oakland, which adds to Flacco’s potential in addition to this favorable matchup.

TOUGH DEAL

Matt Schaub continues to put up respectable, yet not astounding, numbers. Unfortunately, Schaub will be lucky to post even respectable totals against Chicago. The Bears continue to be the only team allowing under 10.0 FPPG to QBs and have given up just six passing TDs all season. Schaub will be lucky to crack double-digit Fantasy Points.

Not that most owners would even think of using Sam Bradford anyway, but in case you are looking for a fill in, don’t look in St. Louis. Bradford has just two games with over 12 FP, and neither came against a pass defense near the level of San Francisco’s. The 49ers are only barely behind Chicago in FPPG allowed (10.5) and are the only other team besides those Bears that have allowed just six passing TDs.

Jay Cutler is as risk/reward as they come, and this week, the risk outweighs the potential reward. Like his opponent Schaub, Cutler faces a top-end pass defense – one that allows just 12.1 FPPG to QBs and just 221.5 passing yards per game (fourth best in the league).

Running Back Points Allowed
Rank Team Opp PPG
Rank Team Opp PPG
1 New England Patriots BUF 24.5 15 Tampa Bay Buccaneers SAD 14.5
2 Atlanta Falcons NO 24.0 16 Carolina Panthers DEN 14.9
3 Indianapolis Colts JAX 23.3 17 Kansas City Chiefs PIT 12.4
4 Jacksonville Jaguars IND 19.8 18 Detroit Lions MIN 14.7
5 Miami Dolphins TEN 22.6 19 Cincinnati Bengals NYG 13.2
6 Baltimore Ravens OAK 22.1 20 San Diego Chargers TB 15.4
7 Pittsburgh Steelers KC 19.5 21 Dallas Cowboys PHI 14.1
8 Oakland Raiders BAL 19.6 22 Minnesota Vikings DET 11.3
9 New York Giants CIN 17.6 23 Buffalo Bills NE 10.9
10 Denver Broncos CAR 18.8 24 Tennessee Titans MIA 11.9
11 Seattle Seahawks NYJ 17.8 25 New York Jets SEA 12.2
12 New Orleans Saints ATL 17.5 26 Chicago Bears HOU 11.0
13 San Francisco 49ers STL 15.9 27 St Louis Rams SAF 8.4
14 Philadelphia Eagles DAL 14.9 28 Houston Texans CHI 9.1

ACES IN THE HOLE

It took five weeks, but Bill Belichick decided to mess with us yet again as Stevan Ridley started sharing more touches with the rest of the RB crew (Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead, etc.). As seen against St. Louis, Ridley can still put up big numbers on lesser touches, and he has a great chance to do so again. The Bills allow the most FPPG to RBs due to the 12 rushing TDs already given up and 142.3 rushing YPG allowed. Good times await Ridley.

Like last week, Vick Ballard’s value weighs heavily on Donald Brown’s ability to suit up. Brown missed practice Tuesday, and with a matchup against Jacksonville, Ballard could have RB2 value staring him in the face. Of course, if Brown plays, Ballard’s value takes a hit, but with the Jags having allowed the second-most rushing TDs, Ballard would still be a solid flex-value RB.

Michael Turner isn’t the back he used to be, but Turner can still toss in a few RB1/2 games when the time is right. With Atlanta heading to New Orleans, that time is in Week 10. Turner is often better indoors, and the Saints give up 148.5 rushing YPG. Turner should be in all lineups this week.

TOUGH DEAL

Since you never sit Arian Foster, no matter the matchup (even against Chicago who absolutely dominates on defense) let’s move on to Steven Jackson against San Fran. Not only do the 49ers shut down run games similarly to 2011, they’re coming off a bye and at home. The 49ers have let only three teams hit double digits – two thanks to Marshawn Lynch and Ahmad Bradshaw with the other only because of Joique Bell’s receiving yards. SJax has only hit double digits once this year. He won’t do it for a second time.

Remember that monster game against Indy and the solid showing versus New England for Shonn Greene? Remember how Greene came back to Earth with just a decent showing against Miami? Well you can expect much more of the latter against Seattle. In fact, Greene will be lucky to put up nine FP against a Seahawks defense that has allowed just one rushing TD all year.

Only one team has yet to allow a rushing TD, and it’s not Chicago. It’s not even that vaunted San Francisco defense. It’s Houston. You’re not benching Matt Forte, but you’re also not expecting a big day. And, you certainly should keep Michael Bush on the bench, as hoping for his occasional rushing TD is a mistake this week.

Wide Receiver Points Allowed
Rank Team Opp PPG
Rank Team Opp PPG
1 Atlanta Falcons NO 29.6 15 Dallas Cowboys PHI 20.3
2 Jacksonville Jaguars IND 24.3 16 Oakland Raiders BAL 18.6
3 New England Patriots BUF 24.4 17 Detroit Lions MIN 17.6
4 Miami Dolphins TEN 22.2 18 San Francisco 49ers STL 18.8
5 Buffalo Bills NE 25.3 19 Philadelphia Eagles DAL 17.4
6 San Diego Chargers TB 27.4 20 Kansas City Chiefs PIT 16.5
7 Pittsburgh Steelers KC 21.0 21 New Orleans Saints ATL 16.6
8 Minnesota Vikings DET 20.9 22 Houston Texans CHI 19.3
9 Tennessee Titans MIA 24.9 23 Carolina Panthers DEN 18.1
10 Indianapolis Colts JAX 20.8 24 Chicago Bears HOU 18.4
11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers SAD 21.0 25 Denver Broncos CAR 15.6
12 New York Giants CIN 19.1 26 Seattle Seahawks NYJ 13.3
13 Baltimore Ravens OAK 19.6 27 New York Jets SEA 16.2
14 Cincinnati Bengals NYG 24.2 28 St Louis Rams SAF 15.0

ACES IN THE HOLE

Roddy White and Julio Jones? Yep, starting them every week. Enjoy that matchup against the Saints!

With the Jaguars playing the Colts, deep leaguers have a few added options. Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon are WR4s at best in most leagues, but those with bye or injury issues and/or in deep leagues can find use for both. The Colts average 24.3 FPPG allowed to WRs and have let WRs reach the end zone 12 times already.

It took two TDs (on two catches) for Brandon Lloyd to reach double digit FP for the first time since Week 4 back when the Pats faced the Rams in Week 8. Coming out of the bye, Lloyd and the Pats (see: Wes Welker) have a great matchup to put up more quality FP. The Bills allow 24.4 FPPG to WRs and have given up the third most receiving TDs (12). There is plenty of opportunity here for both Welker and Lloyd to provide at least WR2 value.

With Stevie Johnson hurting (thigh), there might not be anyone to take advantage of this Bills-Pats matchup for Buffalo. The Pats allow even more FPPG to WRs at 25.3 and have seen receivers notch 12 receiving TDs. Coach Chan Gailey expects Stevie to play, and if he does, he is worth a WR2 spot even with the bit of injury risk involved. If Stevie is out, Donald Jones has some nice sleeper value. While we’re talking about receivers, don’t overlook C.J. Spiller’s increased potential given his amazing receiving ability.

TOUGH DEAL

Danny Amendola is expected to return this week, but unfortunately, he faces the toughest receiving matchup possible: the 49ers. Even though Amendola is worthy of a WR3/4 play in PPR leagues, he’s a risky option in standard ones. Only two receivers have reached the end zone against San Fran, and the 49ers allow just 141.8 receiving YPG. Don’t even think about risking any of the other Rams WRs.

All of the Darrelle Revis stats of the Jets defense with or without him can be tossed aside. The Jets defense hasn’t missed a beat and is holding WRs to a total of 13.3 FPPG. That is due to the Jets averaging just 9.9 receptions and 123.8 receiving YPG allowed. Those hopes of using Sidney Rice or Golden Tate as upside plays should be reserved for another week.

On the opposite end of this matchup, the Jets receivers have a tough go as well. The Seahawks also hold down receivers with just 126.0 receiving YPG. Even though Clyde Gates and Jeremy Kerley had 11 targets each against Miami, they turned them into just 82 and 43 yards, respectively. Plus, the Seahawks allow an average of just 20.0 passing targets to WRs per game – the Jets had 34 against Miami just to get those numbers for Gates and Kerley. Obviously, Stephen Hill and Chaz Schillens are no better choices.

Tight End Points Allowed
Rank Team Opp PPG
Rank Team Opp PPG
1 Miami Dolphins TEN 11.3 15 Tennessee Titans MIA 6.6
2 New York Giants CIN 9.4 16 Denver Broncos CAR 6.9
3 New England Patriots BUF 8.0 17 Jacksonville Jaguars IND 3.8
4 Minnesota Vikings DET 7.1 18 Kansas City Chiefs PIT 5.6
5 Buffalo Bills NE 9.4 19 Cincinnati Bengals NYG 6.6
6 Detroit Lions MIN 7.0 20 Chicago Bears HOU 7.0
7 Seattle Seahawks NYJ 10.0 21 New Orleans Saints ATL 6.0
8 Baltimore Ravens OAK 6.8 22 Indianapolis Colts JAX 3.9
9 San Francisco 49ers STL 7.8 23 Dallas Cowboys PHI 5.8
10 Carolina Panthers DEN 10.4 24 Philadelphia Eagles DAL 5.4
11 Pittsburgh Steelers KC 6.4 25 New York Jets SEA 6.4
12 San Diego Chargers TB 7.0 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers SAD 4.8
13 Oakland Raiders BAL 6.5 27 Houston Texans CHI 5.5
14 Atlanta Falcons NO 5.0 28 St Louis Rams SAF 5.1

ACES IN THE HOLE

Anthony Fasano is too much of a risk, even for needy owners, as he has five games with four or less FP, including a goose egg last week. However, the Giants face a Cincinnati team that is allowing 9.4 TE FPPG, and they have a solid tight end in Martellus Bennett. Bennett has slowed after his first three games, but he has still managed 12 catches over the past three games and can fill in for Week 10 where needed.

With the Pats facing Buffalo, Rob Gronkowski owners are excited, and they should be. But, it doesn’t end there. If Aaron Hernandez can return this week, he is in line for a nice game as well, and owners would be wise to plug him back in lineups.

TOUGH DEAL

The Rams don’t have many worthwhile options, and Lance Kendricks is no different – especially against the 49ers. Since you weren’t starting Kendricks anyway, let’s hit on Owen Daniels. He certainly looks as good as he did years ago, but Daniels’ success will likely hit a low point against Chicago. The Bears defense is a force and allows just 5.5 FPPG to TEs.

Moving past Dallas Clark, who has just one useful game and sees a terrible matchup, we touch on Dustin Keller. He’s come on strong after returning from injury with two straight seven-catch games. That number will drop this week as Seattle allows just 6.4 FP, 5.2 catches and 57.7 receiving yards on average to tight ends, total.

(Reminder: You’ll notice the rankings are not in exact order of points allowed. Other metrics are calculated in along with just straight points. It allows for better analysis so one off-week doesn’t skew the opponent difficulty too greatly.)

The Fantasy Sports Network has a new lineup of programming for the 2014 Fantasy Football season! More info is available right here

 

 

Print Friendly