ANDRE JOHNSON’S SEASON IS MARRED BY INCONSISTENCY

Bob Lung, Staff Writer November 21, 2012

Andre Johnson’s huge Fantasy game this past weekend has many Fantasy owners excited about his 2012 season. However, Johnson’s season has been marred by inconsistency. While he’s ranked 10th in overall Fantasy points, he only has a 60 percent Quality Success Rate (QSR), which ties him for 27th place in consistency. This is not the consistency you want from your WR1. He’s only earned back-to-back Quality Games once all season.

Each week this season, the Quality Games Review will be here to assist you. It should help you see who is performing above average to help your team win, along with those who may be hurting your chances. As the year goes on, consistency trends will start to show the players that are becoming consistent performers and those who are one-week wonders.

The Quality Game Score is the awarding of a Quality Game to a player each week when they exceed the average points scored in your league for that position. The more Quality Games a player is awarded each year, the more consistent that player is, and the more beneficial they are to your Fantasy team. The scoring method used will be a standard PPR format, with four points for passing touchdowns and six for all others.

So, let’s begin the review…

 

Quarterbacks – (Quality Game Factor – 18.27)

Quality Game Earners – Week 11

Rank
Player
Team
Score
1 Matt Schaub HOU 44.35
2 Chad Henne JAX 34.40
3 Robert GriffinIII WAS 34.40
4 Tom Brady NE 28.55
5 Andy Dalton CIN 26.80
6 Josh Freeman TB 25.10
7 Peyton Manning DEN 24.50
8 Drew Brees NO 22.95
9 Andrew Luck IND 22.10
10 Carson Palmer OAK 21.80
11 Colin Kaepernick SF 21.35
12 Tony Romo DAL 20.65
13 Cam Newton CAR 20.60
14 Aaron Rodgers GB 19.10
15 Philip Rivers SD 18.90
16 Brandon Weeden CLE 18.50

THE EXPECTED

Matt Schaub has not been very consistent this season, apparent from his 40 percent QSR for the season. However, Schaub became only the 14th quarterback in NFL season to throw for 500+ yards in a game. Peyton Manning continued his masterful season so far, with his eighth straight Quality Game. Cam Newton and Tony Romo have both picked up their game from a consistency standpoint by earning their third and fourth straight Quality Games respectively.

THE UNEXPECTED

Josh Freeman continued his current hot streak with his sixth straight Quality Game. Andrew Luck continues to be red hot. He is ranked seventh in total points and tied for third in consistency. Chad Henne came back from the “dead” and rejuvenated the Jaguars pass offense. He should be a starter this week. However, since the bye weeks are over, there may not be much need for him. Colin Kaepernick responded well to his debut versus the Bears, but Alex Smith should keep the starting job.

Here is a group of those bad surprises; quarterbacks who didn’t earn a Quality Game this week.  Matt Ryan had an uncharacteristic horrible week. Matty Ice melted like Frosty in a green house.

Rank
Player
Team
Score
18 Matthew Stafford DET 16.50
22 Matt Ryan ATL 9.75
26 Joe Flacco BAL 8.10

Consistency Leaders – YTD – Quarterbacks

Player Name
Total Points
Rank
Total QG
Total GP
QSR
Tom Brady 242.90 4 10 10 100%
Drew Brees 261.10 1 9 10 90%
Peyton Manning 237.55 5 9 10 90%
Andrew Luck 225.55 7 8 10 80%
Carson Palmer 214.75 9 8 10 80%
Robert GriffinIII 251.75 2 7 10 70%
Aaron Rodgers 248.85 3 7 10 70%
Matt Ryan 235.80 6 7 10 70%
Andy Dalton 215.75 8 7 10 70%
Matthew Stafford 214.40 10 7 10 70%
Josh Freeman 210.05 11 7 10 70%
Cam Newton 206.15 12 6 10 60%
Tony Romo 191.00 13 6 10 60%
Ryan Fitzpatrick 176.95 17 6 10 60%
Ben Roethlisberger 177.50 16 5 9 56%
Michael Vick 176.25 18 5 9 56%
Eli Manning 168.85 20 5 10 50%
Christian Ponder 158.55 23 5 10 50%
Alex Smith 145.95 25 4 9 44%
Jay Cutler 138.20 26 4 9 44%
Matt Schaub 189.80 14 4 10 40%

Tom Brady remains as the sole perfect quarterback. Drew Brees continues to hold the top spot in overall points. Robert Griffin III had a great week and earned back the No. 2 spot in overall points but he stills hovers at the 70 percent QSR range with Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford and others

 

Running Backs – (Quality Game Factor – 10.35)

Quality Game Earners – Week 11

Rank
Player
Team
Score
1 Marcel Reece OAK 23.30
2 LaRod Stephens-Howling ARI 21.30
3 Trent Richardson CLE 20.40
4 Doug Martin TB 20.10
5 Bilal Powell NYJ 20.00
6 BenJarvus Green-Ellis CIN 17.80
7 LeSean McCoy PHI 17.20
8 C.J. Spiller BUF 16.00
9 Jamaal Charles KC 15.80
10 Mikel Leshoure DET 15.20
11 Jonathan Stewart CAR 14.30
12 Ray Rice BAL 14.30
13 Mark Ingram NO 13.80
14 Felix Jones DAL 13.50
15 Ryan Mathews SD 12.30
16 Arian Foster HOU 12.20
17 Shane Vereen NE 12.10
18 Jalen Parmele JAX 11.30
19 Jonathan Dwyer PIT 11.10
20 James Casey HOU 11.00
21 Steven Jackson STL 10.60
22 Michael Turner ATL 10.60

THE EXPECTED

It wasn’t the best week for the Holy Trinity of Arian Foster, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy, but all three earned Quality Games and stayed perfect for the year. Jamaal Charles earned back-to-back Quality Games for the first time since Week 5. C.J. Spiller had the whole backfield to himself with Fred Jackson injured, and while he did earn a Quality Game, I believe greater things were expected of him. Fantasy owners are so fickle! Doug Martin and Trent Richardson both have proven themselves worthy as rookies to be listed in the Expected section.

THE UNEXPECTED

Marcel Reece filled in nicely once again for Darren McFadden this past weekend, as he took the top spot overall. LaRod Stephens-Howling continues to perform well, even though he’s getting further away from Halloween. Keep expectations low. Bilal Powell earned most of his points from his two rushing touchdowns. As I mentioned before, the Saints backfield is a crapshoot; stay away from it until Darren Sproles comes back, and even then it may be inconsistent.

Below is a list of some of the top running backs in football that did not earn a Quality Game this week. Matt Forte had his second consecutive miss and Alfred Morris is tanking as expected.

Rank
Player
Team
Score
25 Matt Forte MIA 9.70
26 Alfred Morris ATL 9.30
30 Stevan Ridley ATL 8.80
32 Willis McGahee ATL 8.30
36 Frank Gore ATL 7.80
40 Shonn Greene ATL 6.40
41 Reggie Bush ATL 5.50
64 DeAngelo Williams ATL 1.80

Consistency Leaders – YTD – Running Backs

Rank
Player
Team
Score
1 Andre Johnson HOU 47.30
2 Justin Blackmon JAX 36.60
3 Dez Bryant DAL 32.50
4 Danario Alexander SD 28.60
5 TY Hilton IND 28.00
6 Calvin Johnson DET 25.30
7 Randall Cobb GB 24.30
8 Julian Edelman NE 21.50
9 Vincent Jackson TB 21.40
10 A.J. Green CIN 21.10
11 Roddy White ATL 20.30
12 Brandon LaFell CAR 20.30
13 Lance Moore NO 19.30
14 Cecil Shorts JAX 17.10
15 Davone Bess MIA 17.00
16 Anquan Boldin BAL 15.90
17 Brandon Gibson STL 15.90
18 Brandon Stokley DEN 15.50
19 Wes Welker NE 15.00
20 Chaz Schilens NYJ 14.80
21 Reggie Wayne IND 14.20
22 Steve Johnson BUF 13.90
23 Demaryius Thomas DEN 13.20
24 Santana Moss WAS 13.10
25 Michael Crabtree SF 12.10
26 Aldrick Robinson WAS 11.90
27 Miles Austin DAL 11.80
28 Kevin Walter HOU 11.40
29 Juron Criner OAK 11.30
30 Emmanuel Sanders PIT 11.20
31 Steve Smith CAR 11.10
32 Riley Cooper PHI 11.10
33 Danny Amendola STL 11.10
34 Marques Colston NO 10.90
35 Darrius Heyward-Bey OAK 10.90

There are still only four perfects. The Quality Quartet continues to dominate the consistency rankings, especially when you consider that other than Marshawn Lynch’s 90 percent QSR, no other running back has earned eight Quality Games. Doug Martin takes over the top spot in total points and has an 80 percent QSR. Rookie of the year? Maybe!

Jamaal Charles has been a little more consistent recently, but he’s certainly my poster boy forhigh pointtotals and horrible consistency. Reggie Bush continues to fade as the season goes on.

 

Wide Receiver – (Quality Game Factor – 10.85)

Quality Game Earners – Week 11

Rank
Player
Team
Score
1 Andre Johnson HOU 47.30
2 Justin Blackmon JAX 36.60
3 Dez Bryant DAL 32.50
4 Danario Alexander SD 28.60
5 TY Hilton IND 28.00
6 Calvin Johnson DET 25.30
7 Randall Cobb GB 24.30
8 Julian Edelman NE 21.50
9 Vincent Jackson TB 21.40
10 A.J. Green CIN 21.10
11 Roddy White ATL 20.30
12 Brandon LaFell CAR 20.30
13 Lance Moore NO 19.30
14 Cecil Shorts JAX 17.10
15 Davone Bess MIA 17.00
16 Anquan Boldin BAL 15.90
17 Brandon Gibson STL 15.90
18 Brandon Stokley DEN 15.50
19 Wes Welker NE 15.00
20 Chaz Schilens NYJ 14.80
21 Reggie Wayne IND 14.20
22 Steve Johnson BUF 13.90
23 Demaryius Thomas DEN 13.20
24 Santana Moss WAS 13.10
25 Michael Crabtree SF 12.10
26 Aldrick Robinson WAS 11.90
27 Miles Austin DAL 11.80
28 Kevin Walter HOU 11.40
29 Juron Criner OAK 11.30
30 Emmanuel Sanders PIT 11.20
31 Steve Smith CAR 11.10
32 Riley Cooper PHI 11.10
33 Danny Amendola STL 11.10
34 Marques Colston NO 10.90
35 Darrius Heyward-Bey OAK 10.90

THE EXPECTED

Do we expect Andre Johnson to be at the top of the Fantasy points? Absolutely! However, we also expect him to be on the weekly Quality Game earned list more than 60 percent of the time. He was a top five receiver pick in most leagues. And while he’s 10th for the season in total points, he needs to improve his consistency to earn his high draft pick. It’s good to see Calvin Johnson perform at a high level again; even though he’s playing through pain every week. A.J. Green is a guaranteed top three pick at wide receiver next season, maybe even No. 1.

THE UNEXPECTED

Danny Amendola continues his consistent ways after returning from injury. TY Hilton scored another big day as well this past week, as did Danario Alexander. If you’re looking for some consistent waiver wire potentials, these receivers have recently earned multiple Quality Games and could be waiting for you to pick them up: Brandon Stokley, Danario Alexander, Cecil Shorts and Golden Tate.

Here is the list of top wide receivers that didn’t earn a Quality Game this week. This list is huge again this week! Brandon Marshall had zero points at halftime, scored a touchdown and STILL didn’t earn a Quality Game!

Rank
 
Team
Score
38 Eric Decker DEN 10.30
40 Brandon Marshall CHI 10.10
42 Brian Hartline MIA 8.90
43 Brandon Lloyd NE 8.50
53 Mike Wallace PIT 6.60
57 Julio Jones ATL 6.30
58 Mike Williams TB 5.90
62 James Jones GB 5.30
81 DeSean Jackson PHI 2.50
94 Torrey Smith BAL 1.70
100 Denarius Moore OAK 1.40
107 Dwayne Bowe KC 0.00
111 Jeremy Maclin PHI 0.00

Consistency Leaders – YTD – Wide Receivers

Player Name
Total Points
Rank
Total QG
Total GP
QSR
Reggie Wayne 193.30 3 10 10 100%
A.J. Green 216.80 1 9 10 90%
Demaryius Thomas 178.10 6 9 10 90%
Danny Amendola 115.60 38 6 7 86%
Brandon Marshall 209.50 2 8 10 80%
Wes Welker 173.00 8 8 10 80%
Randall Cobb 164.90 11 8 10 80%
Miles Austin 144.70 17 8 10 80%
Percy Harvin 162.30 13 7 9 78%
Calvin Johnson 192.70 4 7 10 70%
Roddy White 180.60 5 7 10 70%
Victor Cruz 176.30 7 7 10 70%
Vincent Jackson 170.30 9 7 10 70%
Marques Colston 164.10 12 7 10 70%
Dez Bryant 153.50 15 7 10 70%
James Jones 139.50 18 7 10 70%
Mike Wallace 138.30 19 7 10 70%
Steve Johnson 129.10 26 7 10 70%
DeSean Jackson 124.20 31 7 10 70%
Steve Smith 121.20 34 7 10 70%
Lance Moore 129.80 25 6 9 67%
Denarius Moore 122.90 33 6 9 67%
Antonio Brown 99.50 48 5 8 63%
Golden Tate 96.40 53 5 8 63%
Andre Johnson 165.00 10 6 10 60%
Eric Decker 160.10 14 6 10 60%
Julio Jones 152.50 16 6 10 60%
Michael Crabtree 131.90 22 6 10 60%
Malcom Floyd 124.90 29 6 10 60%
Cecil Shorts 124.80 30 6 10 60%
Sidney Rice 117.80 35 6 10 60%
Brandon Lloyd 116.50 37 6 10 60%
Jordy Nelson 130.70 24 5 9 56%
Brandon LaFell 98.40 49 5 9 56%
Larry Fitzgerald 135.60 21 5 10 50%
Dwayne Bowe 128.20 27 5 10 50%

Reggie Wayne continues to remain as the only perfect. However, breathing down his neck at a 90 percent QSR is the duo of A.J. Green and Demaryius Thomas. Randall Cobb is this year’s Victor Cruz. He went practically undrafted, and yet he’s now ranked 11th in total points and tied for fifth in consistency with an 80 percent QSR.

Extreme disappointments include Larry Fitzgerald (21st in total points and 50 percent QSR) and Dwayne Bowe (27th in total points and 50 percent QSR).

 

Tight Ends – (Quality Game Factor – 9.40)

Quality Game Earners – Week 11

Rank
Player
Team
Score
1 Rob Gronkowski NE 32.70
2 Garrett Graham HOU 28.20
3 Ben Watson CLE 20.70
4 Vernon Davis SF 20.30
5 Marcedes Lewis JAX 19.00
6 Dallas Clark TB 18.80
7 Brandon Myers OAK 17.50
8 Jermichael Finley GB 15.60
9 Jimmy Graham NO 14.90
10 Jermaine Gresham CIN 12.90
11 Dwayne Allen IND 12.90
12 Jason Witten DAL 12.10
13 Owen Daniels HOU 11.70
14 Tony Moeaki KC 11.30

THE EXPECTED

Good news, Rob Gronkowski earned the top spot this past weekend. Bad news, he broke his fore arm and is out about six weeks. Vernon Davis is expected to be inconsistent, and he is. He had a great week this week, but he’s still at a 50 percent QSR for the season. Jason Witten earned his seventh straight Quality Game and is tied for first with eight Quality Games. Jimmy Graham and Owen Daniels just snuck in this week, but they still have the highest QSR at 89 percent for the year.

THE UNEXPECTED

In case, you don’t know who Garrett Graham is, he’s the second tight end inHouston. He’s also probably not on anyone’s Fantasy roster other. He probably will get picked up in most leagues, but I wouldn’t get too excited just yet. Marcedes Lewis was a fairly consistent tight end about three years ago, but this week he regained some luster and shined for the Jags,, and any Fantasy owner who had the guts to start him.

Here are the top tight ends that didn’t earn a Quality Game this week. Tony Gonzalez went from awesome to bust this week as did most of the Falcons pass offense.

Rank
Player
Team
Score
15 Jacob Tamme DEN 9.30
16 Brent Celek PHI 9.20
19 Joel Dreessen DEN 6.80
20 Tony Gonzalez ATL 6.30
21 Greg Olsen CAR 6.20
22 Brandon Pettigrew DET 6.20
25 Heath Miller PIT 4.20
28 Antonio Gates SD 3.70
29 Dustin Keller NYJ 3.60

Consistency Leaders – YTD – Tight Ends

Player Name
Total Points
Rank
Total QG
Total GP
QSR
Jimmy Graham 155.20 3 8 9 89%
Owen Daniels 126.50 5 8 9 89%
Rob Gronkowski 186.80 1 8 10 80%
Jason Witten 142.60 4 8 10 80%
Brandon Myers 123.40 7 8 10 80%
Jermaine Gresham 112.70 10 7 10 70%
Tony Gonzalez 165.00 2 6 10 60%
Heath Miller 126.30 6 6 10 60%
Brandon Pettigrew 100.70 11 6 10 60%
Kyle Rudolph 100.60 12 6 10 60%
Joel Dreessen 76.00 22 5 9 56%
Greg Olsen 116.90 8 5 10 50%
Vernon Davis 113.70 9 5 10 50%

There are five tight ends with eight Quality Games, and yet, four of the top 10 in total points aren’t even over a 60 percent QSR, including No. 2 overall, Tony Gonzalez. See, I told you that tight ends weren’t very consistent.

There’s your Week 11 list of Quality Games earned. Start watching these Quality rankings to find your next gem on the waiver wire and then let me know how they work out in your drive towards the championship!

 

Week Twelve – Quality Matchups

My Quality Game research has also shown that most Quality Games are earned during a Quality Matchup. This is a game where the player is either playing at home OR away versus a bottom ten defense. If you want more analysis to help with setting your lineup each week, check out the Xclusive Edge Package and you will see the Historical Consistency rankings each week.

 

So, let’s take a look at the schedule.

 

This week’s home teams are:

Detroit, Dallas, New York Jets, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Miami, Tampa Bay, Chicago, San Diego, Arizona, New Orleans, New York Giants and Philadelphia

 

Teams that are playing away versus a bottom ten defense include:

Pittsburgh@Cleveland

San Francisco@New Orleans

Atlanta@TampaBay

Tennessee@Jacksonville

 

As I mentioned above, the Fantasy players on the teams in these Quality Matchups have a much higher rate of performing above average in comparison to the other players at that position.

If you have any questions about the Quality Game Scores, you can email me at blung@rotoexperts.com. You can also follow me on Twitter.

Listen to me live on Sirius channel 210 and XM channel 87 every Friday mornings at 9:30 am ET

NBA legend Julius “Dr. J” Erving has joined the Anthem Media team. Find out more about the Doctor’s arrival here

 

 

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