ANDRE JOHNSON'S SEASON IS MARRED BY INCONSISTENCY - RotoExperts

ANDRE JOHNSON’S SEASON IS MARRED BY INCONSISTENCY

Bob Lung, Staff Writer November 21, 2012

Andre Johnson’s huge Fantasy game this past weekend has many Fantasy owners excited about his 2012 season. However, Johnson’s season has been marred by inconsistency. While he’s ranked 10th in overall Fantasy points, he only has a 60 percent Quality Success Rate (QSR), which ties him for 27th place in consistency. This is not the consistency you want from your WR1. He’s only earned back-to-back Quality Games once all season.

Each week this season, the Quality Games Review will be here to assist you. It should help you see who is performing above average to help your team win, along with those who may be hurting your chances. As the year goes on, consistency trends will start to show the players that are becoming consistent performers and those who are one-week wonders.

The Quality Game Score is the awarding of a Quality Game to a player each week when they exceed the average points scored in your league for that position. The more Quality Games a player is awarded each year, the more consistent that player is, and the more beneficial they are to your Fantasy team. The scoring method used will be a standard PPR format, with four points for passing touchdowns and six for all others.

So, let’s begin the review…

 

Quarterbacks – (Quality Game Factor – 18.27)

Quality Game Earners – Week 11

RankPlayerTeamScore
1Matt SchaubHOU44.35
2Chad HenneJAX34.40
3Robert GriffinIIIWAS34.40
4Tom BradyNE28.55
5Andy DaltonCIN26.80
6Josh FreemanTB25.10
7Peyton ManningDEN24.50
8Drew BreesNO22.95
9Andrew LuckIND22.10
10Carson PalmerOAK21.80
11Colin KaepernickSF21.35
12Tony RomoDAL20.65
13Cam NewtonCAR20.60
14Aaron RodgersGB19.10
15Philip RiversSD18.90
16Brandon WeedenCLE18.50

THE EXPECTED

Matt Schaub has not been very consistent this season, apparent from his 40 percent QSR for the season. However, Schaub became only the 14th quarterback in NFL season to throw for 500+ yards in a game. Peyton Manning continued his masterful season so far, with his eighth straight Quality Game. Cam Newton and Tony Romo have both picked up their game from a consistency standpoint by earning their third and fourth straight Quality Games respectively.

THE UNEXPECTED

Josh Freeman continued his current hot streak with his sixth straight Quality Game. Andrew Luck continues to be red hot. He is ranked seventh in total points and tied for third in consistency. Chad Henne came back from the “dead” and rejuvenated the Jaguars pass offense. He should be a starter this week. However, since the bye weeks are over, there may not be much need for him. Colin Kaepernick responded well to his debut versus the Bears, but Alex Smith should keep the starting job.

Here is a group of those bad surprises; quarterbacks who didn’t earn a Quality Game this week.  Matt Ryan had an uncharacteristic horrible week. Matty Ice melted like Frosty in a green house.

RankPlayerTeamScore
18Matthew StaffordDET16.50
22Matt RyanATL9.75
26Joe FlaccoBAL8.10

Consistency Leaders – YTD – Quarterbacks

Player NameTotal PointsRankTotal QGTotal GPQSR
Tom Brady242.9041010100%
Drew Brees261.10191090%
Peyton Manning237.55591090%
Andrew Luck225.55781080%
Carson Palmer214.75981080%
Robert GriffinIII251.75271070%
Aaron Rodgers248.85371070%
Matt Ryan235.80671070%
Andy Dalton215.75871070%
Matthew Stafford214.401071070%
Josh Freeman210.051171070%
Cam Newton206.151261060%
Tony Romo191.001361060%
Ryan Fitzpatrick176.951761060%
Ben Roethlisberger177.50165956%
Michael Vick176.25185956%
Eli Manning168.852051050%
Christian Ponder158.552351050%
Alex Smith145.95254944%
Jay Cutler138.20264944%
Matt Schaub189.801441040%

Tom Brady remains as the sole perfect quarterback. Drew Brees continues to hold the top spot in overall points. Robert Griffin III had a great week and earned back the No. 2 spot in overall points but he stills hovers at the 70 percent QSR range with Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford and others

 

Running Backs – (Quality Game Factor – 10.35)

Quality Game Earners – Week 11

RankPlayerTeamScore
1Marcel ReeceOAK23.30
2LaRod Stephens-HowlingARI21.30
3Trent RichardsonCLE20.40
4Doug MartinTB20.10
5Bilal PowellNYJ20.00
6BenJarvus Green-EllisCIN17.80
7LeSean McCoyPHI17.20
8C.J. SpillerBUF16.00
9Jamaal CharlesKC15.80
10Mikel LeshoureDET15.20
11Jonathan StewartCAR14.30
12Ray RiceBAL14.30
13Mark IngramNO13.80
14Felix JonesDAL13.50
15Ryan MathewsSD12.30
16Arian FosterHOU12.20
17Shane VereenNE12.10
18Jalen ParmeleJAX11.30
19Jonathan DwyerPIT11.10
20James CaseyHOU11.00
21Steven JacksonSTL10.60
22Michael TurnerATL10.60

THE EXPECTED

It wasn’t the best week for the Holy Trinity of Arian Foster, Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy, but all three earned Quality Games and stayed perfect for the year. Jamaal Charles earned back-to-back Quality Games for the first time since Week 5. C.J. Spiller had the whole backfield to himself with Fred Jackson injured, and while he did earn a Quality Game, I believe greater things were expected of him. Fantasy owners are so fickle! Doug Martin and Trent Richardson both have proven themselves worthy as rookies to be listed in the Expected section.

THE UNEXPECTED

Marcel Reece filled in nicely once again for Darren McFadden this past weekend, as he took the top spot overall. LaRod Stephens-Howling continues to perform well, even though he’s getting further away from Halloween. Keep expectations low. Bilal Powell earned most of his points from his two rushing touchdowns. As I mentioned before, the Saints backfield is a crapshoot; stay away from it until Darren Sproles comes back, and even then it may be inconsistent.

Below is a list of some of the top running backs in football that did not earn a Quality Game this week. Matt Forte had his second consecutive miss and Alfred Morris is tanking as expected.

RankPlayerTeamScore
25Matt ForteMIA9.70
26Alfred MorrisATL9.30
30Stevan RidleyATL8.80
32Willis McGaheeATL8.30
36Frank GoreATL7.80
40Shonn GreeneATL6.40
41Reggie BushATL5.50
64DeAngelo WilliamsATL1.80

Consistency Leaders – YTD – Running Backs

RankPlayerTeamScore
1Andre JohnsonHOU47.30
2Justin BlackmonJAX36.60
3Dez BryantDAL32.50
4Danario AlexanderSD28.60
5TY HiltonIND28.00
6Calvin JohnsonDET25.30
7Randall CobbGB24.30
8Julian EdelmanNE21.50
9Vincent JacksonTB21.40
10A.J. GreenCIN21.10
11Roddy WhiteATL20.30
12Brandon LaFellCAR20.30
13Lance MooreNO19.30
14Cecil ShortsJAX17.10
15Davone BessMIA17.00
16Anquan BoldinBAL15.90
17Brandon GibsonSTL15.90
18Brandon StokleyDEN15.50
19Wes WelkerNE15.00
20Chaz SchilensNYJ14.80
21Reggie WayneIND14.20
22Steve JohnsonBUF13.90
23Demaryius ThomasDEN13.20
24Santana MossWAS13.10
25Michael CrabtreeSF12.10
26Aldrick RobinsonWAS11.90
27Miles AustinDAL11.80
28Kevin WalterHOU11.40
29Juron CrinerOAK11.30
30Emmanuel SandersPIT11.20
31Steve SmithCAR11.10
32Riley CooperPHI11.10
33Danny AmendolaSTL11.10
34Marques ColstonNO10.90
35Darrius Heyward-BeyOAK10.90

There are still only four perfects. The Quality Quartet continues to dominate the consistency rankings, especially when you consider that other than Marshawn Lynch’s 90 percent QSR, no other running back has earned eight Quality Games. Doug Martin takes over the top spot in total points and has an 80 percent QSR. Rookie of the year? Maybe!

Jamaal Charles has been a little more consistent recently, but he’s certainly my poster boy forhigh pointtotals and horrible consistency. Reggie Bush continues to fade as the season goes on.

 

Wide Receiver – (Quality Game Factor – 10.85)

Quality Game Earners – Week 11

RankPlayerTeamScore
1Andre JohnsonHOU47.30
2Justin BlackmonJAX36.60
3Dez BryantDAL32.50
4Danario AlexanderSD28.60
5TY HiltonIND28.00
6Calvin JohnsonDET25.30
7Randall CobbGB24.30
8Julian EdelmanNE21.50
9Vincent JacksonTB21.40
10A.J. GreenCIN21.10
11Roddy WhiteATL20.30
12Brandon LaFellCAR20.30
13Lance MooreNO19.30
14Cecil ShortsJAX17.10
15Davone BessMIA17.00
16Anquan BoldinBAL15.90
17Brandon GibsonSTL15.90
18Brandon StokleyDEN15.50
19Wes WelkerNE15.00
20Chaz SchilensNYJ14.80
21Reggie WayneIND14.20
22Steve JohnsonBUF13.90
23Demaryius ThomasDEN13.20
24Santana MossWAS13.10
25Michael CrabtreeSF12.10
26Aldrick RobinsonWAS11.90
27Miles AustinDAL11.80
28Kevin WalterHOU11.40
29Juron CrinerOAK11.30
30Emmanuel SandersPIT11.20
31Steve SmithCAR11.10
32Riley CooperPHI11.10
33Danny AmendolaSTL11.10
34Marques ColstonNO10.90
35Darrius Heyward-BeyOAK10.90

THE EXPECTED

Do we expect Andre Johnson to be at the top of the Fantasy points? Absolutely! However, we also expect him to be on the weekly Quality Game earned list more than 60 percent of the time. He was a top five receiver pick in most leagues. And while he’s 10th for the season in total points, he needs to improve his consistency to earn his high draft pick. It’s good to see Calvin Johnson perform at a high level again; even though he’s playing through pain every week. A.J. Green is a guaranteed top three pick at wide receiver next season, maybe even No. 1.

THE UNEXPECTED

Danny Amendola continues his consistent ways after returning from injury. TY Hilton scored another big day as well this past week, as did Danario Alexander. If you’re looking for some consistent waiver wire potentials, these receivers have recently earned multiple Quality Games and could be waiting for you to pick them up: Brandon Stokley, Danario Alexander, Cecil Shorts and Golden Tate.

Here is the list of top wide receivers that didn’t earn a Quality Game this week. This list is huge again this week! Brandon Marshall had zero points at halftime, scored a touchdown and STILL didn’t earn a Quality Game!

Rank TeamScore
38Eric DeckerDEN10.30
40Brandon MarshallCHI10.10
42Brian HartlineMIA8.90
43Brandon LloydNE8.50
53Mike WallacePIT6.60
57Julio JonesATL6.30
58Mike WilliamsTB5.90
62James JonesGB5.30
81DeSean JacksonPHI2.50
94Torrey SmithBAL1.70
100Denarius MooreOAK1.40
107Dwayne BoweKC0.00
111Jeremy MaclinPHI0.00

Consistency Leaders – YTD – Wide Receivers

Player NameTotal PointsRankTotal QGTotal GPQSR
Reggie Wayne193.3031010100%
A.J. Green216.80191090%
Demaryius Thomas178.10691090%
Danny Amendola115.60386786%
Brandon Marshall209.50281080%
Wes Welker173.00881080%
Randall Cobb164.901181080%
Miles Austin144.701781080%
Percy Harvin162.30137978%
Calvin Johnson192.70471070%
Roddy White180.60571070%
Victor Cruz176.30771070%
Vincent Jackson170.30971070%
Marques Colston164.101271070%
Dez Bryant153.501571070%
James Jones139.501871070%
Mike Wallace138.301971070%
Steve Johnson129.102671070%
DeSean Jackson124.203171070%
Steve Smith121.203471070%
Lance Moore129.80256967%
Denarius Moore122.90336967%
Antonio Brown99.50485863%
Golden Tate96.40535863%
Andre Johnson165.001061060%
Eric Decker160.101461060%
Julio Jones152.501661060%
Michael Crabtree131.902261060%
Malcom Floyd124.902961060%
Cecil Shorts124.803061060%
Sidney Rice117.803561060%
Brandon Lloyd116.503761060%
Jordy Nelson130.70245956%
Brandon LaFell98.40495956%
Larry Fitzgerald135.602151050%
Dwayne Bowe128.202751050%

Reggie Wayne continues to remain as the only perfect. However, breathing down his neck at a 90 percent QSR is the duo of A.J. Green and Demaryius Thomas. Randall Cobb is this year’s Victor Cruz. He went practically undrafted, and yet he’s now ranked 11th in total points and tied for fifth in consistency with an 80 percent QSR.

Extreme disappointments include Larry Fitzgerald (21st in total points and 50 percent QSR) and Dwayne Bowe (27th in total points and 50 percent QSR).

 

Tight Ends – (Quality Game Factor – 9.40)

Quality Game Earners – Week 11

RankPlayerTeamScore
1Rob GronkowskiNE32.70
2Garrett GrahamHOU28.20
3Ben WatsonCLE20.70
4Vernon DavisSF20.30
5Marcedes LewisJAX19.00
6Dallas ClarkTB18.80
7Brandon MyersOAK17.50
8Jermichael FinleyGB15.60
9Jimmy GrahamNO14.90
10Jermaine GreshamCIN12.90
11Dwayne AllenIND12.90
12Jason WittenDAL12.10
13Owen DanielsHOU11.70
14Tony MoeakiKC11.30

THE EXPECTED

Good news, Rob Gronkowski earned the top spot this past weekend. Bad news, he broke his fore arm and is out about six weeks. Vernon Davis is expected to be inconsistent, and he is. He had a great week this week, but he’s still at a 50 percent QSR for the season. Jason Witten earned his seventh straight Quality Game and is tied for first with eight Quality Games. Jimmy Graham and Owen Daniels just snuck in this week, but they still have the highest QSR at 89 percent for the year.

THE UNEXPECTED

In case, you don’t know who Garrett Graham is, he’s the second tight end inHouston. He’s also probably not on anyone’s Fantasy roster other. He probably will get picked up in most leagues, but I wouldn’t get too excited just yet. Marcedes Lewis was a fairly consistent tight end about three years ago, but this week he regained some luster and shined for the Jags,, and any Fantasy owner who had the guts to start him.

Here are the top tight ends that didn’t earn a Quality Game this week. Tony Gonzalez went from awesome to bust this week as did most of the Falcons pass offense.

RankPlayerTeamScore
15Jacob TammeDEN9.30
16Brent CelekPHI9.20
19Joel DreessenDEN6.80
20Tony GonzalezATL6.30
21Greg OlsenCAR6.20
22Brandon PettigrewDET6.20
25Heath MillerPIT4.20
28Antonio GatesSD3.70
29Dustin KellerNYJ3.60

Consistency Leaders – YTD – Tight Ends

Player NameTotal PointsRankTotal QGTotal GPQSR
Jimmy Graham155.2038989%
Owen Daniels126.5058989%
Rob Gronkowski186.80181080%
Jason Witten142.60481080%
Brandon Myers123.40781080%
Jermaine Gresham112.701071070%
Tony Gonzalez165.00261060%
Heath Miller126.30661060%
Brandon Pettigrew100.701161060%
Kyle Rudolph100.601261060%
Joel Dreessen76.00225956%
Greg Olsen116.90851050%
Vernon Davis113.70951050%

There are five tight ends with eight Quality Games, and yet, four of the top 10 in total points aren’t even over a 60 percent QSR, including No. 2 overall, Tony Gonzalez. See, I told you that tight ends weren’t very consistent.

There’s your Week 11 list of Quality Games earned. Start watching these Quality rankings to find your next gem on the waiver wire and then let me know how they work out in your drive towards the championship!

 

Week Twelve – Quality Matchups

My Quality Game research has also shown that most Quality Games are earned during a Quality Matchup. This is a game where the player is either playing at home OR away versus a bottom ten defense. If you want more analysis to help with setting your lineup each week, check out the Xclusive Edge Package and you will see the Historical Consistency rankings each week.

 

So, let’s take a look at the schedule.

 

This week’s home teams are:

Detroit, Dallas, New York Jets, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Miami, Tampa Bay, Chicago, San Diego, Arizona, New Orleans, New York Giants and Philadelphia

 

Teams that are playing away versus a bottom ten defense include:

Pittsburgh@Cleveland

San Francisco@New Orleans

Atlanta@TampaBay

Tennessee@Jacksonville

 

As I mentioned above, the Fantasy players on the teams in these Quality Matchups have a much higher rate of performing above average in comparison to the other players at that position.

If you have any questions about the Quality Game Scores, you can email me at blung@rotoexperts.com. You can also follow me on Twitter.

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Congratulations to Jake Ciely for being the No.1 Fantasy Baseball Ranker for the last two consecutive years!