With the MLB and minor league seasons in the rearview mirror, it’s time to reevaluate my preseason prospect rankings.
It’s always difficult to find a balance between upside and probability when grading prospects, so looking back on my methods and making adjustments heading forward is always a useful task. For readers, these will serve as a one-stop shop to catch up on how all of 2012’s prominent prospects performed and how their stock has been affected.
This is not a re-ranking of these prospects, nor is it a new prospect list. It’s simply a review of how I ranked the players before the season began, along with some analysis of what went right, what went wrong and everything in between.
In our eighth installment, let’s review my preseason starting pitcher rankings, with a special focus on young arms whose stock stayed static in 2012. We’ll also give you an early look at some new names who should be relevant in 2013 and beyond.
(PPR = Preseason Position Ranking, Pre/Mid = Preseason/Midseason Top 100 Ranking, NR = Not rated, G = Graduated to MLB. Starred* players are no longer prospect eligible.)
|1.||Matt Moore, TB*||I expect him to take a step forward next year, but he needs to get his BB rate down.||4/G|
|5.||Jacob Turner, MIA||Think he’ll eventually work his way to a No. 2 SP, but he’s more of a No. 4 right now.||9/56|
|7.||Trevor Bauer, ARI||Dominated minors but lost control in MLB; still has very high upside, ready soon.||17/2|
|12.||Jameson Taillon, PIT||He’s been good, not great. Might be more No. 2 than ace, but reports remain strong.||23/25|
|15.||Drew Pomeranz, COL*||Think he can be a John Danks-type pitcher, but numbers won’t look as good in Coors.||33/58|
|16.||Robbie Erlin, SD||Love his Fantasy upside in Petco, but 2012 was a lost season – could be 2013 factor.||34/73|
|21.||Casey Kelly, SD||Looks like a No. 3 SP who could play a tick above that thanks to his home park.||42/66|
|22.||Carlos Martinez, STL||Ks fell in Double-A; still love his upside, but ultimate home may be in bullpen.||45/62|
|23.||A.J. Cole, OAK||High-A didn’t go well, but he crushed Single-A. Still just 20, I’m a believer.||46/77|
|25.||Archie Bradley, ARI||Very high upside and still just 20, but needs to get those walks under control.||48/41|
|29.||Wily Peralta, MIL||A good bet to start 2013 in the MLB rotation, can be high WHIP No. 3 MLB SP.||56/93|
|31.||Nathan Eovaldi, MIA*||If the K rates are always going to be this low in the majors, he’s a Fantasy non-factor.||64/G|
|35.||Zach Lee, LAD||Not an ace in making; profiles as a good, durable mid-rotation guy. Not an insult.||68/44|
|37.||Nestor Molina, CHW||He’s not a stud, but I think the industry is too down on him – can be No. 4 SP soon.||72/NR|
|43.||Jeurys Familia, NYM||Control will dictate future, bad delivery. Another RP candidate, but ready now.||91/81|
|44.||Garrett Richards, LAA*||Rushed to MLB, but future as a mid-rotation SP is intact, should get 2013 starts.||92/NR|
|48.||John Lamb, KC||Recovered from TJ surgery. Don’t forget about him, could be MLB ready by August.||NR/NR|
|50.||Allen Webster, BOS||High floor as No. 3 MLB SP, but move to AL East hurts his Fantasy value, ready soon.||NR/NR|
|51.||Joe Ross, SD||Still very young, 3 seasons away, needs to stay healthy in 2013 to take a step forward.||NR/NR|
|52.||Tyrell Jenkins, STL||Was a bit more hittable in Single-A than I expected, but I still like his upside.||NR/NR|
|58.||Casey Crosby, DET||Might be time to bite the bullet and send him to bullpen; command isn’t SP caliber.||NR/NR|
|61.||Luis Heredia, PIT||Scouting reports remain strong, held his own as 18-year-old in Low-A.||NR/NR|
|66.||Liam Hendriks, MIN*||Should pitch at the back of the rotation for a long time – only relevant for AL-only.||NR/NR|
|77.||Sean Gilmartin, ATL||Low ceiling, high floor, No.4 MLB starter ready by August, trade candidate.||NR/NR|
New Names To Consider: J.O. Berrios (MIN), Clayton Blackburn (SF), Cody Buckel (TEX), Andrew Chafin (ARI), Tony Cingrani (CIN), Tyler Cloyd (PHI), Adam Conley (MIA), Kyle Crick (SF), Mike Foltynewicz (HOU), Max Fried (SD), Michael Fulmer (NYM), Kevin Gausman (BAL), Lucas Giolito (WAS), J.R. Graham (ATL), Garret Gould (LAD), Andrew Heaney (MIA), John Hellweg (MIL), Dillon Howard (CLE), Pierce Johnson (CHC), Dillon Maples (CHC), Nick Maronde (LAA), Lance McCullers (HOU), Brett Oberholtzer (HOU), Roberto Osuna (TOR), Henry Owens (BOS), Juan Paniagua (CHC), Chris Reed (LAD), Dan Straily (OAK), Robert Stephenson (CIN), Chris Stratton (SF), Domingo Tapia (NYM), Michael Wacha (STL), Brandon Workman (BOS), Yordano Ventura (KC), Kyle Zimmer (KC)