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BRYCE BROWN MAY HURT LESEAN MCCOY’S FUTURE

Bob Lung Staff Writer December 5, 2012 5:17PM EST
Bryce Brown may know it, but he’s killing the future Fantasy value of LeSean McCoy. After two straight weeks of taking the top spot among Fantasy running backs, rumors are swirling about Brown and McCoy sharing carries in 2013. Yikes! Two weeks ago, McCoy was a perfect 10 for 10 in Quality Games and was carrying many Fantasy teams into the playoffs and beyond. Now he’s looking at becoming a part-timer next year?

Each week this season, the Quality Games Review will be here to assist you. It should help you see who is performing above average to help your team win, along with those who may be hurting your chances. As the year goes on, consistency trends will start to show the players that are becoming consistent performers and those who are one-week wonders.

The Quality Game Score is the awarding of a Quality Game to a player each week when they exceed the average points scored in your league for that position. The more Quality Games a player is awarded each year, the more consistent that player is, and the more beneficial they are to your Fantasy team. The scoring method used will be a standard PPR format, with four points for passing touchdowns and six for all others.

So, let’s begin the review…

 

Quarterbacks – (Quality Game Factor – 18.27)

Quality Game Earners – Week 13

RankPlayerTeamScore
1Andrew LuckIND35.85
2Cam NewtonCAR31.40
3Russell WilsonSEA29.75
4Tony RomoDAL28.55
5Carson PalmerOAK24.85
6Matthew StaffordDET22.65
7Peyton ManningDEN22.60
8Jay CutlerCHI22.35
9Brandon WeedenCLE21.30
10Ryan FitzpatrickBUF20.40
11Jake LockerTEN20.25
12Josh FreemanTB19.80
13Chad HenneJAX19.50
14Robert GriffinIIIWAS19.35
15Brady QuinnKC19.25
16Andy DaltonCIN19.05
17Aaron RodgersGB18.80
18Colin KaepernickSF18.80
19Eli ManningNYG18.50
20Matt SchaubHOU18.85

THE EXPECTED

Tony Romo continues on his consistency tear with his sixth straight Quality Game. Peyton Manning earned his tenth straight and is now tied for first place with a 92 percent Quality Success Rate (QSR) for the season. Cam Newton earned his fifth straight Quality Game and took second place this week in Fantasy points. Aaron Rodgers just made it again this week, and he only has a 67 percent QSR this season. Last year at this time, he was a perfect 12 for 12 in Quality Games.

THE UNEXPECTED

Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are BOTH probably going to break a 60 percent QSR for the season. No other rookie had done this until Cam Newton pulled it off last year. Russell Wilson has earned five straight Quality Games. Chad Henne has earned three straight Quality Games.

Here is a group of those bad surprises; quarterbacks who didn’t earn a Quality Game this week.  Tom Brady falls from the perfect list, while neither Drew Brees nor Matt Ryan earned a Quality Game in their head-to-head matchup. NO ONE would have predicted that!

RankPlayerTeamScore
24Philip RiversSD15.00
25Tom BradyNE14.80
28Drew BreesNO12.05
29Matt RyanATL12.05

Consistency Leaders – YTD – Quarterbacks

Player NameTotal PointsRankTotal QGTotal GPQSR
Tom Brady292.353111292%
Peyton Manning281.505111292%
Drew Brees296.302101283%
Robert GriffinIII304.55191275%
Andrew Luck278.40691275%
Matthew Stafford267.80991275%
Andy Dalton257.801091275%
Carson Palmer248.901291275%
Aaron Rodgers282.80481267%
Cam Newton278.05781267%
Matt Ryan268.80881267%
Tony Romo252.301181267%
Josh Freeman242.651381267%
Eli Manning213.001671258%
Ryan Fitzpatrick210.551871258%
Ben Roethlisberger177.50235956%
Michael Vick176.25245956%
Matt Schaub227.301461250%
Russell Wilson212.001761250%

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are now tied for first with a 92 percent QSR. Drew Brees is the only other quarterback over 80 percent, while there are five quarterbacks tied at 75 percent QSR. Only one of them is expected to be there, and that’s Matthew Stafford while the others are two rookies, a second year quarterbacks and old-timer, Carson Palmer.

 

Running Backs – (Quality Game Factor – 10.35)

Quality Game Earners – Week 13

RankPlayerTeamScore
1Bryce BrownPHI34.30
2Adrian PetersonMIN29.00
3DeMarco MurrayDAL20.20
4Matt ForteCHI18.60
5Trent RichardsonCLE18.50
6Jamaal CharlesKC17.80
7Marshawn LynchSEA17.80
8BenJarvus Green-EllisCIN17.20
9Steven JacksonSTL16.70
10Arian FosterHOU16.30
11James StarksGB16.20
12Michael TurnerATL16.00
13C.J. SpillerBUF15.40
14Ray RiceBAL15.30
15Mikel LeshoureDET15.30
16Vick BallardIND15.20
17Jonathan DwyerPIT14.70
18Fred JacksonBUF13.90
19Ahmad BradshawNYG13.60
20Joique BellDET13.20
21Stevan RidleyNE13.10
22Doug MartinTB12.80
23Alfred MorrisWAS12.40
24Knowshon MorenoDEN12.30
25Frank GoreSF11.80
26Chris JohnsonTEN11.10
27Marcel ReeceOAK10.60
28Shonn GreeneNYJ10.40

THE EXPECTED

Adrian Peterson is performing at a level that no one expected this year. DeMarco Murray finally returned to the Cowboys and his Fantasy owners couldn’t be happier! Jamaal Charles has been so frustrating this season. He’s eighth in total points, yet he has only a 58 percent QSR. Steven Jackson appears to be regaining his consistency again with his fourth straight Quality Game, as is Michael Turner with his third straight.

THE UNEXPECTED

No, I did not mistakenly leave last week’s Quality Game earners. Bryce Brown was the top running back for the second straight week. With all of the rookie quarterbacks exceeding expectations, not much is being said about rookie running back, Trent Richardson, who is quietly fifth in total points and has a 75 percent QSR. Do you we finally have a solid back in Green Bay in James Starks? Eh, probably not.

Below is a list of some of the top running backs in football that did not earn a Quality Game this week. Ryan Mathews has almost been as frustrating as Philip Rivers this season.

RankPlayerTeamScore
31Darren SprolesNO9.70
33Ryan MathewsSD8.10
36DeAngelo WilliamsCAR7.80
41Reggie BushMIA6.40

Consistency Leaders – YTD – Running Backs

Player NameTotal PointsRankTotal QGTotal GPQSR
Adrian Peterson246.1011212100%
Arian Foster241.6021212100%
Ray Rice225.1041212100%
LeSean McCoy165.50111010100%
DeMarco Murray88.003566100%
Doug Martin239.003101283%
C.J. Spiller191.606101283%
Marshawn Lynch180.707101283%
Trent Richardson208.60591275%
Mikel Leshoure142.101871070%
Ryan Mathews126.402471070%
Frank Gore174.70981267%
Chris Johnson168.201081267%
Stevan Ridley165.101281267%
Alfred Morris154.801381267%
Michael Turner139.102081267%
Darren Sproles130.20226967%
Maurice Jones-Drew76.00434667%
Ahmad Bradshaw151.201471164%
Matt Forte149.301571164%
Andre Brown107.10295863%
Darren McFadden106.50305863%
Willis McGahee141.201961060%
Jamaal Charles178.90871258%
BenJarvus Green-Ellis143.601671258%
Steven Jackson130.002371258%

There are really only three perfects. McCoy’s injury decreases his status and DeMarco Murray kept his streak going with his return this week. Some surprises over 75 percent include C.J. Spiller and Doug Martin. Spiller continues to earn Quality Games even with Fred Jackson also earning them each week.

 

Wide Receiver – (Quality Game Factor – 10.85)

Quality Game Earners – Week 13

RankPlayerTeamScore
1Calvin JohnsonDET36.10
2Demaryius ThomasDEN29.90
3Wes WelkerNE28.30
4Dez BryantDAL27.80
5Brandon MarshallCHI26.50
6Donnie AveryIND26.10
7Pierre GarconWAS24.60
8Josh GordonCLE23.60
9Steve SmithCAR23.00
10Sidney RiceSEA21.90
11Mike WilliamsTB21.30
12Cecil ShortsJAX20.70
13Golden TateSEA20.60
14Chris GivensSTL20.20
15Lance MooreNO19.30
16Anquan BoldinBAL19.10
17Rod StreaterOAK18.60
18A.J. GreenCIN17.50
19Michael CrabtreeSF17.10
20Danario AlexanderSD16.20
21T.Y. HiltonIND16.00
22Victor CruzNYG15.40
23Kendall WrightTEN13.80
24Brian HartlineMIA13.40
25Marques ColstonNO13.10
26Randall CobbGB12.70
27Nate WashingtonTEN12.60
28Miles AustinDAL12.60
29Lestar JeanHOU12.40
30James JonesGB12.00
31Kenny BrittTEN12.00
32Jason AvantPHI11.90
33Jon BaldwinKC11.70
34Antonio BrownPIT11.20
35LaVon BrazillIND11.20
36Riley CooperPHI11.10
37Emmanuel SandersPIT11.00

THE EXPECTED

Ok, so maybe the Madden 13 jinx is over? Calvin Johnson has exploded over the past few weeks. Demaryius Thomas is certainly benefitting from Peyton Manning this season, as he’s now tied for first with A.J. Green and Reggie Wayne for first place with a 92 percent QSR. Marques Colston has earned seven straight Quality Games. Brandon Marshall can honestly make any quarterback look good. Yes, even Jay Cutler.

THE UNEXPECTED

Donnie Avery is the man when Reggie Wayne gets shut down, which doesn’t happen too often. Pierre Garcon really adds a spark to the Redskins offense. He’s earned back-to-back Quality Games. His key is staying healthy. Cecil Shorts earned his fourth straight Quality Game and his sixth in the last seven games. Who is Lestar Jean and why did he earn a Quality Game for Houston while Andre Johnson didn’t? Email me the answer!

Here is the list of top wide receivers that didn’t earn a Quality Game this week. The list is huge again this week! Where do I start? Reggie Wayne missing his first Quality Game of the year is probably the biggest news.

RankPlayerTeamScore
38Andre JohnsonHOU10.60
39Dwayne BoweKC10.40
41Julio JonesATL9.80
42Stevie JohnsonBUF9.80
44Mike WallacePIT9.40
45Hakeem NicksNYG9.30
46Reggie WayneIND9.10
51Greg JenningsGB8.60
65Denarius MooreOAK5.10
75Eric DeckerDEN3.70
79Larry FitzgeraldARI3.30
82Roddy WhiteATL3.00
96Jordy NelsonGB2.00
98Brandon LloydNE2.00
114Robert MeachemSD0.00

Consistency Leaders – YTD – Wide Receivers

Player NameTotal PointsRankTotal QGTotal GPQSR
A.J. Green250.503111292%
Demaryius Thomas226.204111292%
Reggie Wayne220.606111292%
Brandon Marshall257.201101283%
Wes Welker221.405101283%
Percy Harvin162.30177978%
Calvin Johnson256.80291275%
Dez Bryant215.40791275%
Victor Cruz204.30891275%
Marques Colston190.801291275%
Randall Cobb186.701491275%
Miles Austin157.302091275%
James Jones151.502681173%
Vincent Jackson193.401181267%
Cecil Shorts166.001681267%
Steve Johnson155.502181267%
Steve Smith154.202381267%
Antonio Brown110.70536967%
Chris Givens108.40546967%
Lance Moore158.201971164%
DeSean Jackson126.304371164%
Golden Tate126.604261060%
Andre Johnson203.40971258%
Roddy White194.301071258%
Julio Jones189.001371258%
Michael Crabtree154.602271258%
Malcom Floyd151.502571258%
Mike Wallace149.602871258%
Sidney Rice147.902971258%

Reggie Wayne falls from his pedestal as the only perfect. Now he’s tied at a 92 percent QSR with A.J. Green and Demaryius Thomas. Brandon Marshall and Wes Welker are one game back. There are six receivers tied with a 75 percent QSR.

Extreme disappointments include Larry Fitzgerald (33rd in total points and 42 percent QSR) and Dwayne Bowe (32nd in total points and 42 percent QSR).

 

Tight Ends – (Quality Game Factor – 9.40)

Quality Game Earners – Week 13

RankPlayerTeamScore
1Brandon MyersOAK33.00
2Heath MillerPIT20.70
3Martellus BennettNYG19.20
4Jacob TammeDEN17.90
5Aaron HernandezNE17.70
6Kyle RudolphMIN17.10
7Jason WittenDAL16.80
8Tony GonzalezATL15.80
9Tony MoeakiKC15.40
10Brent CelekPHI14.30
11Ben WatsonCLE14.00
12Jermaine GreshamCIN13.50
13Brandon PettigrewDET13.30
14Jermichael FinleyGB12.00
15Greg OlsenCAR11.70
16Dallas ClarkTB11.10
17Antonio GatesSD10.90
18Marcedes LewisJAX10.80
19Jeff CumberlandNYJ10.50
20Jimmy GrahamNO9.90
21Coby FleenerIND9.60

THE EXPECTED

Brandon Myers had a huge week for a wide receiver; but as a tight end it was monstrous! Only Calvin Johnson outscored him at wide receiver this week. Heath Miller continues his incredibly consistent season with his eighth Quality Game of the year. In his best season ever he only earned seven Quality Games and he has four weeks left. Aaron Hernandez just took over where Rob Gronkowski left off. Jimmy Graham barely squeaked on to the good list; but he’s there just the same, and tied for second in QSR this year at 82 percent.

THE UNEXPECTED

Martellus Bennett has been inconsistent this season even though he’s 12th in total points. But that’s still better than most tight ends have ever performed for the Giants. Kyle Rudolph started the year red hot and then cooled off; but he’s still have a pretty solid season, as he’s ranked tenth in total points and has a 67 percent QSR.

Here are the top tight ends that didn’t earn a Quality Game this week. Owen Daniels had a rare miss this season, while Vernon Davis owners have to be cursing his name.

RankPlayerTeamScore
22Jared CookTEN9.10
25Owen DanielsHOU7.30
33Dustin KellerNYJ3.70
34Vernon DavisSF3.50
49Joel DreesenDEN0.00

Consistency Leaders – YTD – Tight Ends

Player NameTotal PointsRankTotal QGTotal GPQSR
Jason Witten175.803101283%
Jimmy Graham172.40491182%
Owen Daniels145.80791182%
Rob Gronkowski186.80281080%
Brandon Myers165.10591275%
Jermaine Gresham139.30891275%
Tony Gonzalez192.00181267%
Heath Miller159.30681267%
Kyle Rudolph134.201081267%
Brandon Pettigrew128.401181267%
Greg Olsen137.60961250%
Marcedes Lewis100.802051145%
Joel Dreessen78.302551145%
Martellus Bennett121.701251242%
Vernon Davis117.201351242%

There are only six tight ends over a 75 percent QSR and half of them weren’t drafted before the tenth round in most leagues.

There are your Week 13 lists of Quality Games earned. Start watching these Quality rankings to find your next gem on the Waiver Wire and then let me know how they work out in your drive towards the championship!

 

Week Fourteen – Quality Matchups

My Quality Game research has also shown that most Quality Games are earned during a Quality Matchup. This is a game where the player is either playing at home OR away versus a bottom ten defense. If you want more analysis to help with setting your lineup each week, check out the Xclusive Edge Package and you will see the Historical Consistency rankings each week.

So, let’s take a look at the schedule.

 

This week’s home teams are:

Seattle, Carolina, Washington, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Oakland, Green Bay, New England, Cleveland, San Francisco, New York Giants, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Indianapolis

 

Teams that are playing away versus a bottom ten defense include:

Kansas City @ Cleveland

St. Louis @ Buffalo

Houston @ New England

Denver @ Oakland

Baltimore @ Washington

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay

New York Jets @ Jacksonville

 

As I mentioned above, the Fantasy players on the teams in these Quality Matchups have a much higher rate of performing above average in comparison to the other players at that position.

If you have any questions about the Quality Game Scores, you can email me at blung@rotoexperts.com. You can also follow me on Twitter.

Listen to me live on Sirius channel 210 and XM channel 87 every Friday mornings at 9:30 am ET.

 

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