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Fantasy Football Week 7 Matchup Rankings: Tom Brady Elite Again

Jake Ciely Senior Writer October 16, 2014 3:35PM EST
Just in case you missed last week’s piece (how is that possible, though, when you know what an advantage these numbers are?), I’ve revamped things a bit. We now have a clearer picture for Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) allowed. Defense Adjusted Fantasy Points (DAFP) is the new calculated metric, and it creates a streamlined matchup ranking each week. As you struggle with your start or sit questions for Week 7, just consult the Week 7 matchup rankings and those tough calls will be much easier.

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Quarterback Points Allowed
Rank Team Opp DAFP Rank Team Opp DAFP
1 Tennessee Titans WSH 21.4 16 Miami Dolphins CHI 16.8
2 New England Patriots NYJ 20.6 17 Pittsburgh Steelers HOU 16.7
3 Cleveland Browns JAX 19.2 18 Chicago Bears MIA 16.6
4 Detroit Lions NO 18.6 19 San Diego Chargers KC 16.3
5 Oakland Raiders ARI 18.2 20 Kansas City Chiefs SAD 16.3
6 Green Bay Packers CAR 18.1 21 Atlanta Falcons BAL 16.2
7 Seattle Seahawks STL 18.0 22 Dallas Cowboys NYG 15.6
8 St. Louis Rams SEA 17.7 23 Carolina Panthers GB 15.6
9 San Francisco 49ers DEN 17.6 24 Cincinnati Bengals IND 15.3
10 Indianapolis Colts CIN 17.6 25 Buffalo Bills MIN 15.1
11 Jacksonville Jaguars CLE 17.5 26 New York Jets NE 14.9
12 Minnesota Vikings BUF 17.3 27 Houston Texans PIT 14.9
13 Washington Redskins TEN 17.2 28 New York Giants DAL 14.9
14 Baltimore Ravens ATL 17.1 29 Denver Broncos SAF 14.3
15 Arizona Cardinals OAK 17.0 30 New Orleans Saints DET 12.5

HOLD ‘EM OR FOLD ‘EM

Two weeks ago, there were few Fantasy owners who would have started Eli Manning over Tom Brady, yet it was the right call. Now? The right call has flipped. It’s not that trusting Manning is a joke that everyone loves to make, especially with Eli-face memes, pics, etc.

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It’s that Manning’s offensive line regressed in a big way last week; he lost Victor Cruz for the season; the Cowboys defense is a strength (a shock in itself), and Brady has bounced back and has a juicy Jets matchup on hand. The Jets have the second most favorable DAFP at 20.6, while the Cowboys have an impressive 14.9 DAFP, behind only the 49ers and Lions. Even if the Giants hadn’t collapsed, Cruz didn’t have season-ending surgery and Brady was still struggling, the matchups alone would have Brady higher in the Week 7 matchup rankings.

Other matchup-boosted QBs: Brian Hoyer, Matthew Stafford (not as effective without Calvin Johnson), Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson

Running Back Points Allowed
Rank Team Opp DAFP Rank Team Opp DAFP
1 Baltimore Ravens ATL 27.2 16 Houston Texans PIT 18.2
2 Green Bay Packers CAR 22.9 17 Indianapolis Colts CIN 17.7
3 Buffalo Bills MIN 22.8 18 Miami Dolphins CHI 17.2
4 Cleveland Browns JAX 22.3 19 New York Giants DAL 17.1
5 Arizona Cardinals OAK 21.9 20 Kansas City Chiefs SAD 16.8
6 Dallas Cowboys NYG 21.5 21 San Diego Chargers KC 16.2
7 Cincinnati Bengals IND 21.2 22 St. Louis Rams SEA 15.8
8 Jacksonville Jaguars CLE 21.2 23 New Orleans Saints DET 15.6
9 Detroit Lions NO 21.2 24 New England Patriots NYJ 15.1
10 Carolina Panthers GB 20.2 25 Seattle Seahawks STL 14.9
11 New York Jets NE 19.8 26 Atlanta Falcons BAL 14.3
12 Washington Redskins TEN 19.7 27 Oakland Raiders ARI 14.1
13 Pittsburgh Steelers HOU 19.2 28 Tennessee Titans WSH 13.9
14 San Francisco 49ers DEN 18.8 29 Denver Broncos SAF 13.9
15 Chicago Bears MIA 18.4 30 Minnesota Vikings BUF 13.1

HOLD ‘EM OR FOLD ‘EM

I don’t know if you’ve heard, but I have a serious man-crush on Isaiah Crowell.

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This goes back to February, and if you’ve read anything about running backs, rookies, etc. by me, then you know I’ve tried to get everyone on board since then. Well, looks like Fantasy owners and even the Browns are finally coming around, as Crowell’s ownership is increasing, and the Browns made Terrance West a healthy scratch last week. With a matchup against the Jaguars, a team with a 22.3 DAFP, Crowell is a solid flex option this week. In fact, I’d use him over either Vikings running back. Crowell’s 5.4 YPC average and five touchdowns in five games are representative of the talent he possesses. Not only is the Vikings backfield a muddy picture, but they’re facing a Bills team rated as the toughest matchup with a 13.1 DAFP. The Bills have allowed a true 10.5 FPPG to running backs with zero touchdowns and just 11 carries inside the red zone. That is brutal. Grab Crowell if he’s still available, and avoid the Vikings backs as much as possible.

Other matchup-boosted RBs: Justin Forsett, Eddie Lacy, Fred Jackson, Ben Tate, Andre Ellington, DeMarco Murray, Gio Bernard

Wide Receiver Points Allowed
Rank Team Opp DAFP Rank Team Opp DAFP
1 Seattle Seahawks STL 27.1 16 Buffalo Bills MIN 21.5
2 Oakland Raiders ARI 27.1 17 Chicago Bears MIA 21.4
3 Detroit Lions NO 26.1 18 St. Louis Rams SEA 21.2
4 Minnesota Vikings BUF 24.6 19 Denver Broncos SAF 21.2
5 Green Bay Packers CAR 24.6 20 Carolina Panthers GB 21.0
6 Atlanta Falcons BAL 24.6 21 Kansas City Chiefs SAD 20.7
7 New England Patriots NYJ 24.5 22 Arizona Cardinals OAK 20.3
8 Jacksonville Jaguars CLE 24.1 23 Dallas Cowboys NYG 20.1
9 Pittsburgh Steelers HOU 24.1 24 Houston Texans PIT 19.6
10 Tennessee Titans WSH 23.8 25 Indianapolis Colts CIN 19.0
11 Baltimore Ravens ATL 23.7 26 New York Jets NE 18.6
12 Cleveland Browns JAX 23.6 27 San Francisco 49ers DEN 18.0
13 Washington Redskins TEN 22.6 28 Cincinnati Bengals IND 17.6
14 Miami Dolphins CHI 22.2 29 New York Giants DAL 17.4
15 San Diego Chargers KC 22.2 30 New Orleans Saints DET 17.2

HOLD ‘EM OR FOLD ‘EM

Andre Holmes is one of the hottest pickups in Fantasy leagues, and for good reason. So is Odell Beckham, and for good reasons too, but for this week, Holmes is the better choice. Holmes made everyone take notice after 121 yards, two touchdowns and 24.1 Fantasy Points. This came one week after Beckham flashed onto the scene in his first-ever NFL game, in which he put up 10.4 FPs with 44 yards and a touchdown. OBJ obviously sees a boost in value with no Cruz, but as mentioned he faces a tough matchup. The Cowboys check in again with a low DAFP of 17.4 for receivers. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are tied with the Rams atop the Week 7 matchup rankings with a 27.1 DAFP. It’s not just one game for Holmes either, as Holmes leads the team in targets (20) and plays over the last two weeks for receivers. If you grabbed both – lucky you – start Holmes over OBJ this week.

Other matchup-boosted WRs: Percy Harvin/Doug Baldwin, James Jones, Calvin? Golden Tate, Packers!, Julio Jones/Roddy White, Julian Edelman/Brandon LaFell

Tight End Points Allowed
Rank Team Opp DAFP Rank Team Opp DAFP
1 Indianapolis Colts CIN 11.5 16 Dallas Cowboys NYG 8.0
2 Cleveland Browns JAX 11.4 17 Miami Dolphins CHI 8.0
3 New York Giants DAL 11.3 18 Minnesota Vikings BUF 7.9
4 St. Louis Rams SEA 11.2 19 Jacksonville Jaguars CLE 7.7
5 New England Patriots NYJ 10.9 20 Denver Broncos SAF 7.7
6 Houston Texans PIT 10.4 21 New York Jets NE 7.3
7 Oakland Raiders ARI 10.4 22 Pittsburgh Steelers HOU 7.1
8 Washington Redskins TEN 10.3 23 Atlanta Falcons BAL 6.7
9 Cincinnati Bengals IND 9.8 24 Buffalo Bills MIN 6.5
10 Tennessee Titans WSH 9.4 25 Green Bay Packers CAR 6.5
11 Arizona Cardinals OAK 9.1 26 Seattle Seahawks STL 6.4
12 San Francisco 49ers DEN 8.7 27 Carolina Panthers GB 6.1
13 Chicago Bears MIA 8.5 28 Kansas City Chiefs SAD 6.1
14 San Diego Chargers KC 8.3 29 Baltimore Ravens ATL 6.0
15 New Orleans Saints DET 8.1 30 Detroit Lions NO 5.8

HOLD ‘EM OR FOLD ‘EM

I’ve actually gone on record expressing the reasons I am not the biggest Dwayne Allen fan. Allen is simply too reliant on touchdowns for Fantasy production. However, this week is one that I’d roll Allen out there, and do so over a more reliable option in Owen Daniels. The Bengals took over the most favorable tight end matchup ranking with an 11.5 DAFP. They rank that high even with only three touchdowns allowed due to the 40 receptions for 473 yards in just five games. As for Daniels, he draws a Falcons team that is only doing well on defense in one area… versus tight ends. The Falcons have a 6.0 DAFP with only 248 yards and zero touchdowns given up to tight ends. As I said, most any other week I’d prefer Daniels, but I will relent and give Allen the edge in Week 7.

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Other matchup-boosted TEs: Jordan Cameron, Larry Donnell, Jared Cook (ugh, you know I hate using him), Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed

You can find a full site-by-site listing of FPPG allowed every week by clicking here.

 

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