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Antonio Brown Is Not Next Year’s Number One Pick

Brian S. Flood Staff Writer November 13, 2014 3:08PM EDT
First, Antonio Brown is not going to be the consensus No. 1 overall pick next season.

I recently asked Twitter followers who they would take with the first overall pick in 2015 Fantasy drafts if they had to decide right now. DeMarco Murray and Matt Forte were popular answers, but the name I saw the most was Antonio Brown. This shocked me.

Don’t get me wrong: Brown is a STUD. He’s currently the highest-scoring non-QB in many leagues and is arguably the Fantasy MVP through 10 weeks.

But, first overall next season? Really?

Let’s put things in perspective. Through 10 games, Brown has caught 79 balls for 1,070 yards with eight TDs. Calvin Johnson was typically the first receiver taken in Fantasy drafts entering this season. Through 10 games last year, Megatron had 59 receptions for 1,083 yards with 11 TDs. Brown, who is a PPR monster, has caught 20 more balls than Johnson did last year through the same number of games, but with fewer yards and three less TDs.

Antonio Brown is great, but he's no Megatron. Photo Credit: Alan Charness

Antonio Brown is great, but he’s no Megatron.      Photo Credit: Alan Charness

Basically, Brown isn’t as good this season as Johnson was last season. And Johnson very rarely went first overall on Draft Day. Also keep in mind that Johnson has been Fantasy’s best wide receiver since, roughly, 2010. Perhaps even since 2008. Brown wasn’t even considered a must-start option as recently as 2012.

Brown will enter next season as an elite option in all formats and should crack Round 1 in PPR leagues. He probably passed Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall and maybe Dez Bryant in ’15 rankings. But thinking Brown is a candidate to go first overall is a tad overzealous. In fact, I think Johnson and Demaryius Thomas will once again be selected ahead of Brown when owners begin to forecast the future.

Wide receiver is simply too deep for the majority of owners to agree that they should use the top overall pick on one of them. And the owners who implement the no-RB strategy will probably go with Johnson or Thomas. It’ll be interesting to watch this play out next summer, but Brown is obviously gaining clout in the Fantasy community.

So the question remains: Who would you take right now if you had the No. 1 overall pick for a 2015 Fantasy league?

And 10

  1. As I mentioned last week, Rashad Jennings appears on track to return to solid RB2 status against the 49ers in Week 11.
  2. Look for rookie WR Marqise Lee to emerge as a serviceable playmaker for the Jaguars down the stretch. He might not see enough targets to warrant Fantasy consideration, but he’s talented enough that all owners should monitor the situation. Lee will benefit from Allen Robinson’s season-ending injury and he’s more talented than Allen Hurns.
  3. Expect the Broncos’ RB situation to be a Fantasy nightmare going forward. Ronnie Hillman is the best fit, but he’s expected to miss a few weeks. Montee Ball is expected to share carries with C.J. Anderson for the immediate future but I don’t particularly trust either of them.
  4. With Calvin Johnson back in action, it’s time to update the “Most Annoying Players to Own Right Now” rankings. Remember that a player has to be extremely talented to make this list. To be considered for the “most annoying” list, players need to have enough upside that owners will wait out nagging injuries, legal drama or bizarre underperformance.

           1.Adrian Peterson
           2.A.J. Green
           3.Michael Crabtree
           4.Keenan Allen
           5.Arian Foster (anytime Foster is battling an injury, he has a chance for a late scratch)

  1. Doug Martin, Zac Stacy, Reggie Bush and Jordan Cameron are no longer eligible for the “most annoying” list, as they’re horrible and Fantasy owners shouldn’t count on them going forward.
  2. Is it time to consider Emmanuel Sanders an elite Fantasy receiver?
  3. If you’re a Jeremy Hill owner, rooting for Gio Bernard’s hip injury to linger for the remainder of the season does not make you a bad person.
  4. It’s starting to look like we’ll know the deal with Adrian Peterson by Friday, November 21.
  5. Cam Newton is still owned in 92 percent of CBS leagues, but he’s not a viable Fantasy option in standard leagues. He’s droppable.
  6. If for some reason Travis Kelce is still available in your league… grab him. He has the tools and skill set to explode, and apparently will be more prominently featured in the offense going forward. Week 11 could be his coming-out party if Anthony Fasano (knee) misses the game.

Questions? Hit me on Twitter @briansflood

 

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