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Fantasy Impact of Jordy Nelson’s Torn ACL

Jake Ciely Senior Writer August 23, 2015 4:35PM EDT
Can we get through one week of the preseason without ruining someone’s season? And no, I’m not talking Fantasy this time… just in general – player’s well-being, team’s situation, etc. Fresh off the Kelvin Benjamin tears ACL news, we (reportedly) have news that Jordy Nelson tore his ACL. Yep, “Jordy Nelson tears ACL” is all you will see on Twitter right now. It’s devastating news. You feel for him and the Packers, but as Fantasy Football owners you want/need to know what to do. Now, everyone wants to know, “What does this mean for Randall Cobb, Jeff Janis and Ty Montgomery?” “Who benefits the most from Jordy Nelson’s torn ACL?” etc. I hate the word “benefit” there, as it’s still a man’s career, but alas, people want to know.

Jordy Nelson's injury creates an opportunity for someone to break out this season. Photo Credit: Dave Kopp

Jordy Nelson’s injury creates an opportunity for someone to break out this season. Photo Credit: Dave Kopp

Aaron Rodgers – Nothing changes… it’s Aaron Rodgers! He and Andrew Luck are the only two in the argument for best in the game, Fantasy or reality. He can spread the ball around like few others and won’t miss a beat.

Running Game – Little change here. Maybe Eddie Lacy or James Starks see a spit more work, but it would be no more than a spit.

Davante Adams – Catching issues aside (he continues to struggle with drops), Adams sees his value skyrocket. I compared Adams to previous Packers wide receiver James Jones, in that he is good at most everything but not excellent in any one area. That doesn’t really hold you back if you’re the No. 2 receiver in Green Bay, though. Don’t forget, before there was Jordy Nelson wrecking shop, James Jones was putting up plenty of touchdowns. He had 21 between 2011-2012, and that was while never receiving more than 98 targets. In fact, Jones had 635 yards and seven touchdowns on just 55 targets (38 receptions) in 2011. This offense simply produces. I actually project Adams to finish in the 60-70 catch range but put up better yards per catch numbers than Jones did. Overall, I’d estimate 900-plus yards and seven touchdowns, which puts Adams firmly in WR2 territory and knocking on the Top 20 door.

Jeff Janis and Ty Montgomery – Janis is a measurable freak. He tests exceptionally well, but this is when testing and football don’t always mesh. His hands are a continuing issue, and he still needs route running improvement. There is a reason he was on the roster bubble just a few weeks ago. However, at 6’3”, 220 lbs., Janis will line up wide in three receiver sets with Cobb in the slot. That gives Janis plenty of his own upside, but don’t overlook Montgomery. I already loved Montgomery as a late-round flier since he can provide Devin Hester like value in the return game. In deep leagues, an occasional touchdown would have been nice, but now, Montgomery is an even better flier. The problem is that he “benefits” less than Janis does since he’s a slot option. Nevertheless, both have upside as WR6 picks now. I actually project their yardage to be similar with Janis having fewer receptions. I’ll put both of them in the 400-500 yard range with about four touchdowns each. Again, take a flier on one if you can because there is still potential for one of them to truly break out if either reached 70-plus targets.

 

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