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Daily Fantasy: UFC 184 picks

Daily Fantasy: UFC 184 picks

Daniel Dobish, Staff Writer February 28, 2015

UFC 184 is set for Saturday, Feb. 28 from Staples Center in Los Angeles, Calif., including the main event between Ronda Rousey and Cat Zingano. Neither of the women have lost in their career, so something’s gotta give.

(Kountermove.com salaries in parentheses) (all times ET) (odds courtesy of Sportsbook.ag)

HEAVY HITTERS

Jake Ellenberger ($5000 vs Josh Koscheck): It’s now or never for Ellenberger, who comes in on a three-bout losing streak. He was dropped by Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 180, and he lost to Robbie Lawler in his bout before that. While losing to those two is certainly nothing to be ashamed about, he needs to get on track in a hurry. He is favored to do just that, but don’t be surprised if this one goes the distance.

Holly Holm ($5300 vs Raquel Pennington): The Preacher’s Daughter is a huge favorite against Pennington, who has lost four of her nine career matches. Holm has rolled up seven wins in seven bouts, with six coming by way of TKO/KO. You won’t be disappointed taking the bantamweight as one of your five Daily Fantasy fighters.

Alan Jouban ($5200 vs Richard Walsh): Jouban looks to pick himself up off the mat after a loss last time out to Warlley Alves in UFC Fight Night 56. He gets a crack at the big time, and he is a heavy favorite against Walsh.

BARGAIN and MID-LEVEL PLAYS

Josh Koscheck ($4600 vs Jake Ellenberger): Koscheck is a good value against a fighter who has dropped three consecutive bouts. Koscheck has also dropped three straight, including a pair of KO/TKO’s to Tyron Woodley, Robbie Lawler in his past two bouts, and a loss to Johny Hendricks in UFC on FOX 3. However, Koscheck has had a much tougher road than Ellenberger and there is some Daily Fantasy value here.

Gleison Tibau ($4400 vs Tony Ferguson): The veteran Tibau is a big underdog, but we’ve seen that before. He was a dog last time out against Norman Parke Jan. 18 and he won a split decision. In fact, he has seven career split decisions with five going in his favor. Four of his past five fights have gone the distance, and 13 of the past 18 have gone all the way. He has a tendency to hang around, and that’s bad news for Tony Ferguson.

LAST WEEK’S PICKS (at Kountermove.com)

Iuri Alcantara ($5200) over Frankie Saenz — LOSS
Cezar Ferrerira ($5100) over Sam Alvey — LOSS
Rustam Khabilov ($5000) over Adriano Martins — LOSS
William Macario ($5400) over Matt Dwyer — LOSS
Santiago Ponzinibbio ($4100) over Sean Strickland — WIN

THIS WEEK’S PICKS (at Kountermove.com) (based on $25,000 salary – five fighters)

Holly Holm ($5300) over Raquel Pennington
Josh Koscheck ($4600) over Jake Ellenberger
Derrick Lewis ($4900) over Ruan Potts
Ronda Rousey ($5700) over Cat Zingano
Gleison Tibau ($4400) over Tony Ferguson

 

Daily Fantasy: Thursday’s NHL picks

Daily Fantasy: Thursday’s NHL picks

Daniel Dobish, Staff Writer February 26, 2015

There are nine evening games in the National Hockey League Thursday, Feb. 26, including the nationally televised game between the Minnesota Wild and Nashville Predators (8:30 p.m., NBC Sports Network).

(FanWars.com salaries in parentheses) (all times ET).

GOALTENDERS

Cam Talbot or Mackenzie Skapski, N.Y. Rangers ($20000/20950 vs ARI): The Rangers have not confirmed their starting goaltender for Thursday night, but whomever is in between the pipes has a good chance to be a winner. The Coyotes are playing their third game in four days, and they’re 3-9 in their past 12 3-in-4 situations. In addition, they’re playing their fourth games in six days, and they’re 2-10 in their past 12 4-in-6 situations. The Rangers have won five of the past six meetings against the Coyotes, and they’re 5-0 in their past five at home against Arizona.

CENTERS

Derick Brassard, N.Y. Rangers ($10950 vs ARI): The Coyotes rank 28th in the NHL in goals allowed, so Brassard should be in good shape to keep up his hot streak. While he hasn’t been lighting the lamp, he has managed 11 assists over his past 10 games. Since Feb. 2 he has 2.5 or more Fantasy points in 10 of the past 12 outings.

Kyle Turris, Ottawa ($12350 at LA): Turris has managed a point in five of the past six games, posting four goals with nine points and a plus-5 rating during the span. He is not shy about taking shots, either, posting 10 in the past two games and 28 SOG over the past eight. He comes with a mid-level Daily Fantasy price tag, but he is giving elite-level production lately.

WINGS

Kevin Hayes, N.Y. Rangers ($8100 vs ARI): Hayes stepped up to the first line Tuesday against Calgary with Rick Nash (neck) ailing. He popped a goal in against the Flames, his second in as many games. Over the past 13 games dating back to Jan. 31, the rookie Hayes has posted six goals with 11 points and a plus-6 rating. Take advantage of his low price, as it might not last long.

Kris Versteeg, Chicago ($9450 at FLA): Versteeg is expected to see an expanded role with Patrick Kane (shoulder surgery) on Injured Reserve. Versteeg posted a goal last time out against the Panthers, now he’ll try to do it again in the second half of the home-and-home in Sunrise. He has four goals overt he past six games, and at least 2.0 Fantasy points in 11 of his past 15 games.

DEFENSEMEN

Andrei Markov, Montreal ($12050 at CLB): Markov has three assists over the past four games, and that includes an assist and 4.0 Fantasy points against the Blue Jackets in the last meeting Feb. 21. In fact Markov has 3.0 or more Fantasy points in 10 of the past 11 games to more than earn his Daily Fantasy salary.

Jakub Kindl, Detroit ($5800 at SJ): Kindl has stepped up the intensity on the offensive end lately, going for three or more shots on goal in four of the past six games. He has 2.0 or more Fantasy points in five of those six outings, more than earning his low, low DFS salary.

NHL INJURY REPORT

ANAHEIM

Fredrik Andersen, G (upper body – I-R – out until at least late February)
Matt Beleskey, W (upper body, day to day)
Sheldon Souray, D (wrist – I-R – out for the season)
Sami Vatanen, D (leg – I-R – out indefinitely)

ARIZONA

Mikkel Boedker, W (upper body – I-R – out indefinitely)
Martin Hanzal, C (upper body – day to day)
Zbynek Michalek, D (upper body – day to day)

BOSTON

Gregory Campbell, C (upper body, day to day)
David Krejci, C
(knee – I-R – out until at least late March)

BUFFALO

Tyler Ennis, C (lower body, day to day)
Zemgus Girgensons, C (foot, day to day)
Josh Gorges, D
(lower body, day to day)
Patrick Kaleta, W (l9wer body – I-R – out until at least mid-March)
Evander Kane, W (shoulder – I-R – out for the season)

CALGARY

Matt Stajan, C (personal, day to day)

CAROLINA

Tim Gleason, D (lower body, day to day)
Ryan Murphy, D (leg – I-R – out at least one more month)

CHICAGO

Patrick Kane, W (shoulder – I-R – out indefinitely)
Johnny Oduya, D
(upper body, day to day)

COLORADO

Jan Hejda, D (knee, day to day)
Erik Johnson, D
(lower body – I-R – out indefinitely)
Ryan Wilson, D (shoulder- I-R – out for the season)

COLUMBUS

Sergei Bobrovsky, G (groin – I-R, out indefinitely)
Nathan Horton, W (back – I-R – out indefinitely)
Boone Jenner, W (back – I-R – out at least another week)
Jeremy Morin, W (upper body – I-R – out indefinitely)
Dalton Prout, D (upper body, day to day)

DALLAS

Patrick Eaves, W (concussion – I-R, out indefinitely)
Valeri Nichuskin, W (hip – I-R, out at least six more weeks)
Rich Peverley, W (heart – I-R, out indefinitely)
Tyler Seguin, C (knee – I-R, out at least six more weeks)

DETROIT

Joakim Andersson, W (illness, day to day)
Johan Franzen, W
(concussion – I-R – day to day)
Kyle Quincey, D (ankle, day to day)
Henrik Zetterberg, W (head, day to day)

EDMONTON

Viktor Fasth, G (knee – I-R, day to day)
Taylor Hall, W
(leg – I-R – day to day)
Anton Lander, C (shoulder, day to day)
Nail Yakupov, W (groin, day to day)

FLORIDA

Dave Bolland, C (upper body, day to day)
Willie Mitchell, D (upper body – I-R – day to day)
Brandon Pirri, C (upper body – I-R – day to day)

LOS ANGELES

Alec Martinez, D (concussion – day to day)

MINNESOTA

Keith Ballard, D (concussion – I-R – out indefinitely)
Ryan Carter, C (shoulder – I-R – out at least four weeks)
Matt Cooke, W (lower body – I-R – out indefinitely)
Jared Spurgeon, D (upper body, day to day)
Jason Zucker, W (clavicle – I-R – out at least three months)

MONTREAL

Alexei Emelin, D (upper body – out at least four more weeks)
Sergei Gonchar, D
(upper body – I-R – day to day)
P.A. Parenteau, W (concussion – I-R – day to day)

NASHVILLE

Ryan Ellis, D (lower body – I-R – out indefinitely)
Anton Volchenkov, D (hip – I-R – out indefinitely)

NEW JERSEY

Ryane Clowe, W (concussion – I-R – out indefinitely)
Keith Kinkaid, G (lower body, day to day)

N.Y. ISLANDERS

Mikhail Grabovski, C (upper body, day to day)
Kyle Okposo, W (eye – I-R – out at least four more weeks)

N.Y. RANGERS

Henrik Lundqvist, G (neck, out indefinitely)
Rick Nash, W (neck, day to day)

OTTAWA

Craig Anderson, G (hand – I-R – day to day)
Jared Cowen, D (suspension – eligible to return March 3)
Robin Lehner, G (upper body, day to day)
Clarke MacArthur, W (concussion, day to day)
Chris Neil, W (thumb – I-R – out indefinitely)
Zack Smith, C (wrist – I-R – out indefinitely)

PHILADELPHIA

Ray Emery, G (knee – I-R – day to day)
Steve Mason, G (knee – day to day)
Kimmo Timonen, D (leg – I-R – out indefinitely)

PITTSBURGH

Pascal Dupuis, W (chest – I-R – out indefinitely)
Olli Maataa, D (shoulder – I-R – out for the season)

ST. LOUIS

Kevin Shattenkirk, D (abdomen – I-R – out until at least early April)

TAMPA BAY

Matt Carle, D (abdomen – I-R – out at least one more month)
Radko Gudas, D (knee – I-R – out until at least early May)
Mattias Ohlund, D (knee – I-R – out indefinitely)

TORONTO

Nazem Kadri, C (illness, day to day)
Dion Phaneuf, D (upper body – I-R – questionable for Thursday)

VANCOUVER

Kevin Bieksa, D (hand – I-R, out at least one more month)
Alex Burrows, W (lower body, day to day)
Alexander Edler, D (upper body, day to day)
Ryan Miller, G (leg – I-R – out at least a month
Christopher Tanev, D (undisclosed, day to day)

WINNIPEG

Mathieu Perreault, C (lower body – I-R – out until at least early April)
Blake Wheeler, W (lower body, day to day)

Daily Fantasy: Wednesday’s CBK picks

Daily Fantasy: Wednesday’s CBK picks

Daniel Dobish, Staff Writer February 25, 2015

It’s an exciting slate of college hoops games Wednesday, Feb. 25, and there are plenty of marquee teams on the hardwood. Also, try and take advantage of some of the leaky defenses for extra added Daily Fantasy value. We’ll help you find the values below.

(DraftKings.com salaries in parentheses) (all times ET).

GUARDS

Bryant McIntosh, Northwestern ($6500 vs IND): The Wildcats wouldn’t exactly be the first team, or probably 100th, Daily Fantasy owners think about when setting a lineup. However, he is averaging 13.3 point per game (PPG) with 6.0 assists per game (APG) over the past three outings. He’ll be working against a marginal Indiana team defense which ranks 297th in the nation. Look for McIntosh to carve up the Hoosiers for a strong stat line.

Mitchell Wilbekin, Wake Forest ($3600 vs UVA): Wilbekin has been struggling with his shot lately, but he has still managed to help out with a few points, a handful of assists and some decent rebounding totals. He has 10.0 or more Daily Fantasy points in each of the past 10 games. That’s not great, but including him will give you some points while saving your team a ton of Daily Fantasy salary to spread across other positions, especially in the frontcourt where there are a ton of talented options.

FORWARDS

Rico Gathers, Baylor ($8700 at IAST): Gathers leads the nation in rebounding with 12.1 RPG, but he is anything but a one-trick pony. He has 13 or more points in five of the past six games, and he is averaging 1.8 blocked shots per game over the past eight outings. He also has at least one steal in six straight games, averaging 1.5 SPG during the span. He is well worth the money because he contributes in so many different categories for Daily Fantasy owners.

Nikola Jovanovic, Southern California ($5600 vs WASHST): Washington State’s scoring defense checks in at No. 340 in the nation, with only five teams worse against the opposition. Jovanovic has slowed a bit after a big start to the season, but he is still a fair scorer and rebounder while also chipping in with an occasional blocked shot. He has five or more boards in four straight, and eight of the past 10, and blocked at least one shot in four straight, averaging 1.3 blocks per game (BPG) during the stretech.

David Kravish, California ($6500 vs OREGON): Kravish will face an Oregon scoring defense which ranks 279th in the nation, allowing 70.5 points per game. Last time out Kravish posted 23 points and 12 rebounds with a blocked shot in 37 minutes at Stanford, posting 39.5 Fantasy points. It was his first double-double since Jan. 24. He is a solid mid-level value who should be able to score at will against a shabby Oregon defense.

TV SCHEDULE

Kentucky at Mississippi State (SEC Network, 7:00 p.m.)
Connecticut at East Carolina (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m.)
Indiana at Northwestern (Big Ten, 7:00 p.m.)
Marquette at Butler (FS1, 8:00 p.m.)
Duke at Virginia Tech (ESPN2, 9:00 p.m.)
Baylor at Iowa State (ESPNU, 9:00 p.m.)
Illinois at Iowa (Big Ten, 9:00 p.m.)
Georgia at Mississippi (SEC Network, 9:00 p.m.)
Washington State at Southern California (Pac-12 Network, 10:00 p.m.)
Washington at UCLA (ESPN2, 11:00 p.m.)
Oregon at California (ESPNU, 11:00 p.m.)

Daily Fantasy: Tuesday’s NHL picks

Daily Fantasy: Tuesday’s NHL picks

Daniel Dobish, Staff Writer February 24, 2015

There are 11 evening games in the National Hockey League Tuesday, Feb. 24, including the nationally televised game between the Philadelphia Flyers and Carolina Hurricanes (7:00 p.m., NBC Sports Network).

(FanWars.com salaries in parentheses) (all times ET).

GOALTENDERS

Devan Dubnyk, Minnesota ($21250 vs EDM): Dubnyk has allowed three or fewer goals in 13 straight games, and he has won 11 of those games with four shutouts. He is 2-0 with a 0.50 goals-against average (GAA) in the past two outings against Edmonton, including a shutout last Friday in Edmonton. The Oilers allow the most goals in the NHL, so even if Dubnyk isn’t on top of his game the offense should provide plenty of support to give him a victory.

CENTERS

Patrice Bergeron, Boston ($13300 vs VAN): Since the All-Star break the Boston center has been on fire, posting six goals with 10 points in 11 games. That includes a goal with a plus-1 rating and five Fantasy points in Vancouver Feb. 13. He is performing at nearly a point-per-game clip, and he comes with a reasonable salary.

Derick Brassard, N.Y. Rangers ($11350 vs CGY): Brassard hasn’t lit the lamp since Feb. 4, a span of nine games. However, he has 10 assists with a plus-3 rating during the span while posting 2.5 or more Fantasy points in nine of the past 11 contests. He takes plenty of shots and he provides plenty of helpers. Expect another solid stat line Tuesday.

WINGS

Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado ($12500 at NSH): Landeskog has five goals with seven points during his current six-game point streak, and he has 4.0 or more Fantasy points in each of the outings. And in his past two games Jan. 27-30 against the Predators he posted a goal, assist and plus-2 rating with a total of 7.5 Fantasy points. Expect another solid performance from the Avalanche captain.

Nino Niederreiter, Minnesota ($8700 vs EDM): Niederreiter seems to light up when he sees the Oilers logo, scoring a goal in each of the first two meetings while posting a plus-3 rating and a total of 9.0 Daily Fantasy points. He has three goals with a plus-4 rating over his past four outings. Bank on his past history against the Oilers, a team which allows the most goals in the NHL.

DEFENSEMEN

Dougie Hamilton, Boston ($11100 vs VAN): Hamilton has picked up the pace lately, going for a goal with five points and a plus-3 rating over the past four games. He has at least 2.5 Fantasy points in seven of the past eight, and 13 of the past 15 outings. He is a tremendous mid-level Fantasy play.

Marco Scandella, Minnesota ($8500 vs EDM): Scandella has managed five assists over the past 10 games, but it is his blocked shot ability which really keeps his Daily Fantasy owners in the black. And he is no stranger to the penalty box, either. Look for another solid stat line from Scandella, as a positive plus/minus rating with a blocked shot or two and a penalty is likely.

NHL INJURY REPORT

ANAHEIM

Fredrik Andersen, G (upper body – I-R – out until at least late February)
Matt Beleskey, W (upper body, day to day)
Sheldon Souray, D (wrist – I-R – out for the season)
Sami Vatanen, D (leg – I-R – out indefinitely)

ARIZONA

Mikkel Boedker, W (upper body – I-R – out indefinitely)
Martin Hanzal, C (upper body – day to day)
Zbynek Michalek, D (upper body – day to day)

BOSTON

David Krejci, C (knee – I-R – out until at least late March)

BUFFALO

Josh Gorges, D (lower body, day to day)
Patrick Kaleta, W (l9wer body – I-R – out until at least mid-March)
Evander Kane, W (shoulder – I-R – out for the season)

CALGARY

Matt Stajan, C (personal, day to day)

CAROLINA

Tim Gleason, D (lower body, day to day)
Ryan Murphy, D (leg – I-R – out at least one more month)

CHICAGO

Johnny Oduya, D (upper body, day to day)

COLORADO

Erik Johnson, D (lower body – I-R – out indefinitely)
Ryan Wilson, D (shoulder- I-R – out for the season)

COLUMBUS

Sergei Bobrovsky, G (groin – I-R, out indefinitely)
Nathan Horton, W (back – I-R – out indefinitely)
Boone Jenner, W (back – I-R – out at least another week)
Jeremy Morin, W (upper body – I-R – out indefinitely)
Dalton Prout, D (upper body, day to day)

DALLAS

Patrick Eaves, W (concussion – I-R, out indefinitely)
Valeri Nichuskin, W (hip – I-R, out at least six more weeks)
Rich Peverley, W (heart – I-R, out indefinitely)
Tyler Seguin, C (knee – I-R, out at least six more weeks)

DETROIT

Johan Franzen, W (concussion – I-R – day to day)
Teemu Pulkkinen, W (leg, day to day)
Henrik Zetterberg, W (head, day to day)

EDMONTON

Viktor Fasth, G (knee – I-R, day to day)
Taylor Hall, W
(leg – I-R – day to day)
Anton Lander, C (shoulder, day to day)
Jeff Petry, D (shoulder, day to day)

FLORIDA

Dave Bolland, C (upper body, day to day)
Willie Mitchell, D (upper body – I-R – day to day)
Brandon Pirri, C (upper body – I-R – day to day)

LOS ANGELES

Alec Martinez, D (concussion – day to day)

MINNESOTA

Keith Ballard, D (concussion – I-R – out indefinitely)
Ryan Carter, C (shoulder – I-R – out at least four weeks)
Matt Cooke, W (lower body – I-R – out indefinitely)
Jared Spurgeon, D (upper body, day to day)
Jason Zucker, W (clavicle – I-R – out at least three months)

MONTREAL

Alexei Emelin, D (upper body – out at least four more weeks)
Alex Galchenyuk, W
(illness, day to day)
Sergei Gonchar, D
(upper body – I-R – day to day)
P.A. Parenteau, W (concussion – I-R – day to day)

NASHVILLE

Ryan Ellis, D (lower body – I-R – out indefinitely)
Anton Volchenkov, D (hip – I-R – out indefinitely)

NEW JERSEY

Ryane Clowe, W (concussion – I-R – out indefinitely)
Keith Kinkaid, G (lower body, day to day)

N.Y. ISLANDERS

Mikhail Grabovski, C (upper body, day to day)
Frans Nielsen, C (leg, day to day)
Kyle Okposo, W (eye – I-R – out at least four more weeks)

N.Y. RANGERS

Henrik Lundqvist, G (neck, out indefinitely)

OTTAWA

Craig Anderson, G (hand – I-R – day to day)
Jared Cowen, D (suspension – eligible to return March 3)
Robin Lehner, G (upper body, day to day)
Clarke MacArthur, W (concussion, day to day)
Chris Neil, W (thumb – I-R – out indefinitely)
Zack Smith, C (wrist – I-R – out indefinitely)

PHILADELPHIA

Ray Emery, G (knee – I-R – day to day)
Steve Mason, G (knee – day to day)
Kimmo Timonen, D (leg – I-R – out indefinitely)

PITTSBURGH

Pascal Dupuis, W (chest – I-R – out indefinitely)
Christian Ehrhoff, D (upper body, day to day)
Olli Maataa, D (shoulder – I-R – out for the season)

ST. LOUIS

Kevin Shattenkirk, D (abdomen – I-R – out until at least early April)

TAMPA BAY

Matt Carle, D (abdomen – I-R – out at least one more month)
Radko Gudas, D (knee – I-R – out until at least early May)
Mattias Ohlund, D (knee – I-R – out indefinitely)

TORONTO

Dion Phaneuf, D (upper body – I-R – out indefinitely)

VANCOUVER

Kevin Bieksa, D (hand – I-R, out at least one more month)
Nick Bonino, C (lower body – I-R – day to day)
Alex Burrows, W (lower body, day to day)
Alexander Edler, D (upper body, day to day)
Ryan Miller, G (leg, day to day)
Christopher Tanev, D (undisclosed, day to day)

WINNIPEG

Mathieu Perreault, C (lower body – I-R – out until at least early April)

Daily Fantasy: UFC Fight Night 61 Picks

Daily Fantasy: UFC Fight Night 61 Picks

Daniel Dobish, Staff Writer February 21, 2015

UFC Fight Night 61 is set for Sunday, Feb. 22, and there are 12 bouts on the card, including the main event featuring Frank Mir and Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva. The UFC Fight Pass preliminaries, featuring Ivan Jorge vs. Josh Shockley and Cody Gibson vs. Douglas Silva begin at 5pm ET from Brazil. The FOX Sports 1 prelims will begin roughly at 6pm ET, while the main card will start on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm ET and five bouts will be featured before the main event between the heavyweights.

In other news, one of the two UFC 187 title bouts will pit embattled Jon Jones against Anthony ‘Rumble Johnson. Jones failed a drug test and went to rehab for one day.

Speaking of drug tests, Anderson Silva has failed a second drug test. The second failure came at UFC 183 after his victory against Nick Diaz. He tested positive for drostanolone, banned substance he tested positive for Jan. 9. In addition, he tested positive for an anti-anxiety medication and another substance which is used to treat sleep deprivation. Originally he faced a nine-month penalty, but it is unclear if he will have a lengthier suspension following the second failed test. His future is super murky in the UFC at this time.

Lastly, welterweight champ Robbie Lawler will put his title on the line against Rory McDonald at UFC 189 July 11 in Vegas.

Getting back to UFC Fight Night 61, I am very excited about this card and the Daily Fantasy prospects. You can fit in the four biggest slam-dunk favorites on the board, which always means a good chance at victory, as well as a live dog gaining momentum. This should be a very profitable weekend for DFS players in MMA.

I am finding that Kountermove.com is a much better site for fitting more favorites under the wire, which might especially be good for those getting their feet wet in Daily Fantasy MMA. DraftKings.com is a lot more challenging and you cannot fit nearly as many favorites into your five-man lineup. Kountermove allows you more flexibility, and is quite fun. Everyone likes to have a handful of winners in their lineup. If you play at DK, you can still use some of the advice below. I’ll include an extra underdog and a lineup for both sites this week just to compare.

(Kountermove.com salaries in parentheses) (all times ET) (odds courtesy of Sportsbook.ag)

HEAVY HITTERS

Iuri Alcantara ($5200 vs Frankie Saenz): The Brazilian (-650) is the biggest favorite on the UFC Fight Night 61 big board, so Vegas expects this to be a bout that doesn’t end well for Saenz. ‘Marajo’ has won three straight bouts, last losing to Urijah Faber by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 26 back on Aug. 17, 2013. He disposed of Vaughan Lee by TKO/KO just 25 seconds into his bout at UFC Fight Night 41. The southpaw could end things quickly in a battle of 34-year-old fighters.

Cezar Ferreira ($5100 vs Sam Alvey): ‘Mutante’ is fighting in his backyard, and he looks to build upon the momentum of a unanimous decision win over Andrew Craig last time out in UFC Fight Night 44. He has won four of his past five bouts, but needs to avoid the quick knockout. It is a big concerning that two of his past six bouts have ended in less than a minute with Ferreira on the losing end. If you’re playing Draft Kings and need to leave out one of the big favorites (-320), Ferreira would be the choice to omit from your lineup. Still, he is expected to dominate if he can avoid the early knockout, and that makes him a good play at Kountermove, especially at a favorable salary.

Rustam Khabilov ($5000 vs Adriano Martins): Khabilov’s star is on the rise despite a fourth-round loss to Benson Henderson at UFC Fight Night 42. There is no shame in losing to Henderson, a solid fighter, and Khabilov had ripped off six straight wins before that, including three first-round TKO/KO’s. In fact, the Russian has won 17 of his 19 bouts and the 28-year-old is skillful and patient. He won’t get himself into silly spots where he can be dropped early.

William Macario ($5400 vs Matt Dwyer): ‘Patalino’ suffered a KO/TKO loss to Neil Magny in his last bout at UFC 179, but there is no shame in that. While some might be turned off by the fact he has lost two of his past three bouts, he is fighting at home in Brazil against the Canadian Dwyer, who was also dropped in his last match. In fact, Dwyer was overcome in 63 seconds by Albert Tumenov at UFC Fight Night 54, his first real test as a pro. Macario is expected to roll, as is evidenced by his (-340) status as a heavy favorite.

BARGAIN and MID-LEVEL PLAYS

Santiago Ponzinibbio ($4100 vs Sean Strickland): The Argentine fighter is 19-2, and has made quick work of opponents lately. In his bouts, 11 of his 19 wins have ended in the first round. He will come out swinging, and Strickland needs to be very aware that he isn’t in for a long battle. Last time out Ponzinibbio floored Wendell Oliveira by KO/TKO just 80 seconds into the bout at UFC Fight Night 51. He is a good value, and smart money in Vegas is on him. He is now just a short dog at +147 and closing fast.

LAST WEEK’S PICKS (at Kountermove.com)

Ray Borg ($5100) over Chris Kelades — WIN
Max Holloway ($5200) over Cole Miller — WIN
Neil Magny ($5300) over Kiichi Kunimoto — WIN
Michel Prazeres ($4600) over Kevin Lee — LOSS
Patrick Walsh ($4700) over Dan Kelly — LOSS

THIS WEEK’S PICKS (at Kountermove.com) (based on $25,000 salary – five fighters)

Iuri Alcantara ($5200) over Chris Kelades
Cezar Ferrerira ($5100) over Sam Alvey
Rustam Khabilov ($5000) over Adriano Martins
William Macario ($5400) over Matt Dwyer
Santiago Ponzinibbio ($4100) over Sean Strickland

THIS WEEK’S PICKS (at DraftKings.com) (based on $50,000 salary – five fighters)

Sam Alvey ($8200) over Cezas Ferreira
Rustam Khabilov ($11700) over Adriano Martins
Santiago Ponzinibbio ($8600) over Sean Strickland
Antonio Silva ($11900) over Frank Mir
TJ Waldburger ($9600) over Wendell Oliveira