Casey Janssen May Miss Opening Day
Blue Jays closer Casey Janssen is still slated to open the season as the stopper, but there has been talk of a minor delay-slash-setback that could threaten that status. We are starting to hear phrases like “assuming he is ready” or “if he’s healthy,” so the situation is worth watching.
Toronto General Manager Alex Anthopoulos appeared on a Toronto radio show today and said this about Janssen, who is recovering from November shoulder surgery: “We’re optimistic he’ll start the season,” Anthopoulos said. “(He) could be delayed a week. Assuming health, Casey is the closer to start the year. You can never have too many arms in the pen. If he has to be delayed a week or so, we’ll have to adjust.”
Casey Janssen may not be ready to close for the Jays on Opening Day. Watch closely. Photo credit: Keith Allison
Janssen replaced Sergio Santos, whom the Jays acquired from the White Sox before the 2012 season to close games. Santos developed an injury early in the year and it leveled almost his entire season. He stands at the ready to back up Janssen to open the season.
Santos, in either a closer or set-up role, could bring value to your Fantasy team. In 2011, he notched 30 saves for the Sox while owning a 13 K/9 profile. He’s prone to some wildness and he may have some rust on his arm after pitching in only six games for the Jays last year.
In his first spring outing on Sunday, Santos registered 95 mph on the radar gun, so arm strength does not seem to be an issue so far this spring.
Janssen seized the role last season with a good profile: 9.5 K/9 with a great a 1.55 BB/9 rate. His 0.86 WHIP and 2.54 ERA accompanied 22 saves. If he starts the season healthy it’s his job to lose, but if he misses even a week and Santos proves dominating, Toronto could have a closer controversy.
At age 31, his healing may not progress as quickly as he needs, though Santos full recovery at age 29 is not in the bag either. Monitor this situation closely throughout the spring. You might get a bargain in either Janssen or Santos in your draft.
Parnell to Open as Mets’ Closer
The New York Mets have shut down closer Frank Francisco due to elbow inflammation and hard-throwing set-up man Bobby Parnell will open the
Bobby Parnell will open the season as the Mets closer. Photo credit: paulzinn1979
season as the team’s closer, according to Manager Terry Collins.
Collins named Parnell the closer during an interview on WFAN radio in New York.
The 33-year-old Francisco struggled much of last season and experienced elbow tenderness. He had a bone spur removed from his elbow in a December surgery. Shortly after arriving in spring training, he revealed inflammation in the elbow. There is no immediate word on when Francisco might begin throwing again.
His K/9 rate dropped to 8.0 from 9.7 in 2011, but he also improved his control and dropped in velocity. Most observers say those changes were made in order to focus on pitching rather than throwing. His spike to a 61.5 ground ball percentage should help him hold onto the role.
Parnell’s Fantasy stock should soar as he has exceptional skills and might hold the job even if the oft-injured Francisco fully recovers. The Mets signing of Brandon Lyon last week allows them to have an able-bodied set-up man behind Parnell.
Bourn Again Indians
The Michael Bourn signing with the Cleveland Indians certainly shook up the Fantasy world, if not the Mets’ fantasy of carrying a classic lead-off hitter to energize their lineup.
Looking at the fantasy implications of Bourn’s four-year deal, we’ll start with the Mets. Manager Terry Collins told reporters on Tuesday that he could envision Mike Baxter and Collin Cowgill occupying the leadoff spot. He said the Mets played well for a stretch last season when Baxter lead off games. Ruben Tejada would hit 2nd under that scenario.
Baxter managed .263 with 3 HR, 17 RBI and five steals in 179 AB before sustaining a collarbone injury and a catch to save Johan Santana’s no-hitter. Cowgill’s line looked similar: .269, 1 HR/9 RBI/3 SB in 104 AB in Oakland’s crowded outfield. Together, the duo might manage a few steals, but little else atop the Mets’ lineup.
Now hitting leadoff for the Mets…. Mike Baxter? Photo credit: Robert Kowal
The free-spending Indians also added several other players this off-season, including outfielder Nick Swisher, first baseman Mark Reynolds, and starting pitcher Brett Myers. Outfielder Drew Stubbs an pitchers Trevor Bauer, Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw were also acquired by Cleveland.
Bourn, at least for 2013, should make Swisher and the rest of the lineup a bit more valuable, providing a duck for the pond out of the leadoff hole. As RotoExperts examined last week in our Deep Dive column, Bourn’s stolen base statistics have rolled back in recent years, while his power ticked up a bit last year.
He hit .274 with a .348 on-base percentage and a .391 slugging percentage with Atlanta last year. He swiped 42 stolen bases, a year removed from tying a career-high 61 SB in 2010. He added nine HR and 57 RBIs.
Between Bourn, Stubbs and second baseman Jason Kipnis, the Tribe should prove to be a team on the run. Between them, they stole 103 bases in 2012.
Michael Brantley, another centerfielder by trade, is included in the mix as well, meaning we may see Swisher slide to first base and Reynolds to DH, at least part of the time. Stubbs may be the odd man out in that case. Keep an eye out on the Cleveland spring box scores and news from new manager Terry Francona leading up to your draft.
Frieri Likely to Open as Angels Closer
Ernesto Frieri is almost certain to at least open the year as the Angels closer. Photo credit:angelswindotcom
Angels closer Ryan Madson, who wasn’t a sure thing to open the season after April 2011 Tommy John surgery, reported what he called a setback, according to the LA Times’ Mike DiGiovanna.
Madson said he was “very doubtful” that he’d be ready to open the season. He was expected to be ready between Opening Day and mid-April,
Madson experienced pain in his surgically-repaired shoulder during a bullpen session on Feb. 1, he said. While he chalked up the discomfort to the normal recovery from surgery, he reported being “very disappointed.”
Prior to missing 2012 entirely, Madson nailed down 32 saves in 34 chances for the Philadelphia Phillies, sporting a 2.37 ERA and a 4-2 record. His setback almost assures that Ernesto Frieri, who recorded 23 saves for the Angels, will open the season at the back of the bullpen. Frieri was lethal at times in 2012, posting a 13.3 K/9 rate, a 0.98 WHIP and holding hitters to a paltry .151 AVG. Frieri might be somebody to target in your draft, for even if he doesn’t keep the closer job, he will add Ks to your pitching staff totals all season.
Lowrie Trade Causes Fantasy Shuffle
The Oakland A’s and Houston Astros completed an intra-division trade which sent SS Jed Lowrie and RP Fernando Rodriguez to the A’s in exchange for first baseman Chris Carter, righthander Brad Peacock and minor league catcher Max Stassi.
The trade will cause quite a position shuffle – for both teams and for Fantasy owners.
A’s management praised Lowrie’s power for a middle infielder, although they have already signed Japanese free agent Hiroyuki Nakajima to play SS. Look for Lowrie to play throughout the infield during the season, but he has some experience at 2B, where he is expected to push Scott Sizemore and Jemile Weeks for playing time (or perhaps one of them could shift elsewhere). But because Oakland GM Billy Beane spoke about him as a good power source in the middle of the infield, look for Lowrie up the middle most days. Lowrie managed a .244 average, plus 16 HRs and 42 RBI in 97 games for the Astros. His power production is likely to suffer in Oakland’s cavernous stadium and he has never even played 100 games in a season due to injuries. But he remains a nice sleeper pick at the shallow MI position.
Chris Carter provides the Astros some much-needed power. Photo Credit: Dinur
The loss of Carter leaves Brandon Moss as the favorite to patrol first base for the A’s. Moss has averaged about .250 throughout pro career, though he hit .291 in an up-and-down season for the A’s. He added 21 HR and 52 RBI in 296 plate appearances last year. Expect his average to drop unless he can develop better plate discipline – he strikes out about 30 percent of the time.
For the Astros, they continue to sell off veterans for prospects, but Carter enters an already crowded 1B situation. Carter, who hit 16 HRs and 39 RBI in 67 games last season, provides much-needed right-handed power for Houston. With Carlos Pena, Brett Wallace and Rule 5 selection 1B/DH Nate Freiman on the roster, Wallace is likely headed to the minors. As a Rule 5 player, Freiman must remain on the 25-man roster for be returned to his former team, so his roster spot seems safe.
The Astros – now an American League team – will enjoy the flexibility of the DH and Carter has played some left field, so if he hits, he should find room in the lineup. Peacock gives them a 25-year-old live arm. Throughout his minor league career, Peacock has been good for more than 9 K/9 IP but has shown some wildness. He should compete for a rotation spot in spring training.
At shortstop, Lowrie’s exit elevates Marwin Gonzalez and Tyler Greene up the depth chart in Houston. Gonzalez is a slick-fielding, light hitting option while Greene provides power without great defense. Neither provides much Fantasy appeal until they win a full time job and perform for awhile.
METS EYEING VALVERDE
Valverde could push Frank Francisco aside and seize the closers job in spring training. Photo Credit: Keith Allison
According to an ESPN report, the New York Mets are interested in former Detroit Tigers closer Jose Valverde for the back of their bullpen. It is presumed that Valverde, if signed, would compete with (or outright displace) Frank Francisco to be the Mets closer. Last season, Francisco posted career worsts in several metrics, including a 5.53 ERA, 4.46 BB/9 and a 1.61 WHIP. He also underwent minor elbow surgery during the off season. Though he’s expected to be ready for spring training, the Mets are looking to add depth to the bullpen.
The animated Valverde, for his part, earned 35 saves for Detroit in 2012, but he saw his ERA climb to 3.78 from his 49-save 2011, when it was just 2.24. His strikeout percentage fell for the sixth straight season, to just 16.3 percent or 6.26 K/9. The move might give the Mets a slight upgrade at closer in the short-term, but Valverde would not be a lock to survive the season in the 9th inning role. Bobby Parnell owns the best skill set of the Mets bullpen crew and acted as the team’s closer in the late-season absence of Francisco last year.
Parnell featured a career-low 2.49 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. His strikeout rate fell from 9.71 to 8.00 K/9 but he cut his walk rate almost in half, from 4.10 BB/9 to 2.42 BB/9 (a 3:1 K:BB ratio). But most striking, his ground ball percentage soared to 61.5 percent from about 50 percent in 2011. Parnell has taken a bit off of his velocity – though his fastball still averages 96 mph – but it seems to be in favor of becoming a better overall pitcher. Even if the Mets offer a contract to Valverde, Parnell’s skills should continue to push manager Terry Collins to consider him at the end of games.
Our prediction? The Mets move away from Valverde – especially if they have to surrender a high draft pick for the signing – and “settle” on free agent Brandon Lyon, who had a good season, especially his stint with Toronto after escaping Minute Maid Park in Houston. Lyon improved his strikeout percentage, had slightly better control, and would provide a solid 7th/8th inning arm in the pitcher-friendly Citi Field.
THE BRAVES RE-UPTON
Martin Prado has a higher OPS than Justin Upton over the last two seasons. Photo Credit: Keith Allison
The Arizona Diamondbacks solved their outfield logjam by moving Justin Upton to the Braves along with 3B Chris Johnson for 3B Martin Prado, SP Randall Delgado and a trio of prospects. Upton, long thought of as an underachiever, joins his underachieving brother B.J., whom the Braves signed as a free agent earlier this winter. Obviously, the Braves are betting on the brothers Upton being happier and more productive as members of the same team. I’m not sure I buy into the theory myself, and prefer to stick with the numbers to make my Fantasy assessments of these two for the coming season. Justin Upton has actually hit pretty well at Turner Field during his career, turning in a .293/.388./.483 effort in 67 plate appearances. If he can hold that triple slash in his new home at the very least, his Fantasy value should stay level despite leaving the hitter-friendly Chase Field in Arizona.
Chris Johnson will likely platoon with Juan Francisco, who might have been relegated to the bench, had Prado not gone to Arizona in this trade. Neither Johnson nor Francisco had much appeal to Fantasy owners before this trade and their value certainly won’t improve in a platoon situation. At the very best they might have minimal value in the deepest of NL-only leagues, but mixed league players should avoid both of them like the plague.
D’Backs wear Prado
The trio of prospects- RHP Zeke Spruill, SS Nick Ahmed, and 3B Brandon Drury are all several seasons from MLB consideration, so they will provide depth for the Diamondbacks for the time being and won’t have Fantasy relevance. Martin Prado will take over the third base duties for Arizona and he should enjoy hitting in Chase Field. He’s hit well there in the past (.319/.370/.447) and is a career .295 hitter overall. He gets on base at a good clip but doesn’t have more than 15 HRs or 17 stolen bases in any season. If his age 29 year is his best ever, I suppose a 20/20 season is possible, but I’d expect his ceiling to be a bit lower – perhaps 15/15. Randall Delgado will likely join the Diamondbacks starting rotation this season and I expect he’ll thrive there if he continues to generate groundballs at the 50 percent mark as he did in 2012. He’ll have to improve on his 4.08 BB/9 rate to enjoy true success, though, so he’s likely no better than a fifth starter at this point. In Fantasy, he’s a pitcher to keep an eye on for a breakout at some point, but it’s not all that likely to happen in 2013.
M’s, A’s & NATS THREE WAY DEAL
The A’s, M’s and Nats Make a Three Way Deal
While this trade doesn’t pass the litmus test for a blockbuster it certainly has implications for quite a number of players and Fantasy managers. The three way deal involved the movement of six players all together: C John Jaso goes from Seattle to Oakland, OF/1B Mike Morse moves from Washington to Seattle, while the Nationals acquire two pitching prospects (righthanders A.J. Cole and Blake Treinen) and a player to be named from Oakland. In addition, C George Kotteras was designated for assignment by the A’s.
From what I’ve read about the trade in some of the local media outlets of the teams involved, there are quite a few folks scratching their heads about this deal. However, when you think about it in the context of some of the other moves these teams have made, at least two of the three parties involved have done exactly what has made them successful in the past. The third team, well, not so much. Let’s look at each team’s haul and try to understand the motivation. Then we’ll examine the winners and losers from a Fantasy standpoint.
Billy Beane Playing Moneyball Again
John Jaso is a prototype “Moneyball” player. Photo Credit: Keith Allison
Arguably, the A’s gave up two potentially very good pitchers in Cole and Treinen. However, Oakland GM Billy Beane has shown time and again that he has a very good eye for evaluating pitching talent and moving pitchers in trade for effective bats for his lineup. So, while Cole and Treinen could become big time stars, they could also just as easily flop. In the meantime, Beane has acquired in John Jaso, the exact sort of patient-at-the-plate, high-OBP type of hitter he’s targeted ever since he adopted his Moneyball tactics. Jaso has a career OBP of .359 and notched a .394 mark in 361 PA with the Mariners last season. He crushes right-hand pitching but struggles with lefties, and Jaso has shown some developing power over the last season. Prior to 2012, his Isolated Power (ISO) peaked at .130, but he mashed 10 homers last season and notched enough extra base hits to raise his ISO to .180. Given a full season of at bats, Jaso could approach 20 home runs while maintaining a batting average within shooting distance of .275. The losers in this deal are George Kotteras, who may or may not be signed by another team, Derek Norris, who goes from starter to a backup role behind Jaso, and the Mariners, who will now be looking to defensively-challenged Jesus Montero to handle the majority of the backstop duties.
Washington Keeps Stockpiling Talent
I’ve already made it clear that A.J Cole and Blake Treinen could easily flop. That’s the way it is with all prospects, but the risk factor is multiplied several times over when it comes to pitching prospects. However, the Nationals are clearly the biggest beneficiaries of this deal. Michael Morse is only under contract for one more season before he can test the free agent market. So the Nationals only gave up one year of a player for whom they had no starting position and received two power arms in return. Even if only one of the two pitchers in question becomes a viable arm out of the bullpen, they will have gotten him for practically nothing in return. They were in need of a left-handed reliever and wanted to get one in return for Morse. However, the signing of Rafael Soriano, a versatile pitcher they can use in multiple roles out of their bullpen, reduced the need to acquire a lefty specialist. Soriano silences right-handed bats to the tune of a .170 Batting Average Against (BAA) and a K:BB ratio of 4.7. However, against left-handed batters he has a healthy .233 BAA and a 2.2 K:BB ratio. While he isn’t exactly dominating against lefties, he is effective enough that the Nationals can throw him out there in virtually any situation against hitters from both sides of the plate and not worry about the game getting out of hand. Plus, with closer Drew Storen a little more than six months removed from an injury, Soriano gives them a backup closer with tons of experience. Fantasy players in “Holds” leagues will want to draft Soriano, as he’ll get plenty of opportunities to produce in that category. But more importantly, should Storen need time on the disabled list, Soriano would likely get an opportunity to close out games during his absence. So the Nationals could afford to let Morse go for a couple of prospects and this trade gives them pitching depth that could help sustain their already dominant position on the mound.
Seattle Cornering the Corner Market
Herein lay the head-scratching component of this three way trade. Prior to this deal the Mariners were already overstocked with corner outfield-first base-designated hitter type players. Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, Casper Wells, Raul Ibanez, Jason Bay, Casper Wells, and lurking on the depth chart somewhere, Mike Jacobs, are all candidates to play at either first base or one of the corner outfield spots. It was believed that Jesus Montero was the DH for this team, but now he’ll have to be the primary catcher with Jaso gone to Oakland. Morse has made it perfectly clear that he doesn’t want to be a DH, and who can blame him? He’s too young to give up playing in the field, and his first shot at free agency looms at the end of the 2013 season. The Mariners have too many bodies to fill a limited number of roster spots. And let’s not forget that with Montero behind the dish and Morse in right field, the Mariners offense may have taken a step forward but their defense will be taking two steps backward. So the biggest losers here could very well be Seattle’s pitching staff. The bottom line here is that someone among the group of Smoak, Morales, Wells, Ibanez and Bay is going to lose at bats because there are only two spots in the lineup for those five players. As for Morse, the Mariners moved the fences in to make their stadium a bit more hitter-friendly, so he could be the beneficiary of a power spike in his new home. His Fantasy value, however, will remain unchanged. He’s still no more than a fourth or fifth outfielder in deep mixed league play and perhaps a third outfielder or corner infielder in AL-only leagues. Of course, the Mariners could have another move up their sleeve. They could flip one of their surplus players to another team for a catcher. The Red Sox could use a right-handed bat and have catchers to trade. But we’ll have to wait and see, perhaps into the start of spring training to find out if Seattle is just stockpiling for another move. Otherwise, it’s a true head scratcher.
Sources:
Fangraphs.com
Baseball_Reference.com
Twitter
Tim McCullough is the Assistant Editor for RotoExperts.com. Questions, comments and requests are welcome. Contact Tim at tim.m@rotoexperts.com
Follow me on Twitter @ TimM_RotoExpert
ADAM LAROCHE GOING NOWHERE
You won’t be seeing Michael Morse and Adam LaRoche high-fiving each other next season. Photo Credit: Keith Allison
After discovering that there weren’t any teams in MLB willing to offer him a three-year deal, Adam LaRoche ended up signing a two-year, $24M deal (with a mutual third year option) to remain with the Washington Nationals. Unfortunately, teams were loath to give up a draft pick to sign him and the Nationals had Michael Morse as insurance if he decided to leave. LaRoche had a very good 2012 season, batting .271 with 33 HRs, 100 RBI and 76 R. However, you have to go all the way back to 2006 before you find a comparable season on his stat sheet. He is more of a 25 HR, 80 RBI guy, benchmarks he’s reached nearly every season of his career. LaRoche is also 33 years old. So while he’s been pretty consistent over his career there is a very good chance that his decline phase will begin sometime in the next two years. Now that LaRoche is signed, Morse becomes trade bait for the Nats, who are in need of a left-handed reliever in the bullpen. As many as 10 teams are reportedly interested in Morse, but keep an eye on the Red Sox. With the Mike Napoli injury clause talks moving slowly (if at all), the Red Sox may decide to bring in a little insurance of their own. They have depth in their farm system and could make a move to bring Morse to Fenway, where the Green Monster would make an attractive target for the right-handed masher. If Morse ends up in Boston he could be a candidate for a breakout season; don’t expect a breakout from LaRoche, though, last year was his ceiling and he won’t repeat it this year.
Sources:
Fangraphs.com
Baseball_Reference.com
Tim McCullough is the Assistant Editor for RotoExperts.com. Questions, comments and requests are welcome. Contact Tim at tim.m@rotoexperts.com
Follow me on Twitter @ TimM_RotoExpert
BERKMAN, SWISHER OUTLOOKS FOR 2013
Offseason Musings returns from a Holiday break in blog format. What that means to you, reader, is that the posts will come as often as there is Hot Stove news that will have an impact on the Fantasy landscape. Things have been pretty quiet since the Holidays, but there have been a few significant signings to consider and there may be some big news brewing in Seattle.
Lance Berkman Signs with Texas
The Rangers were shut out of their original targeted signings and trades, but the signing of Lance Berkman to a one-year deal for $11M replaces at least some of the offense they lost when Josh Hamilton fled to the City of Angels. Berkman couldn’t have found a softer landing place for what could be his final season of baseball. The Ballpark at Arlington provides him with a hitter-friendly atmosphere that will play to his strengths. From a Fantasy perspective, Berkman will be a decent enough investment; his eligibility at first base and presence in the heart of the Rangers lineup should make for solid production and Fantasy value. He won’t be among the Top 10 first basemen in mixed leagues, but AL-only league players should target him as a value pick.
Nick Swisher Signs with Cleveland
Nick Swisher should thrive with the Indians. Photo Credit: Keith Allison
Some Fantasy analysts don’t favor this signing, citing Progressive Field as being unfriendly to hitters of Swisher’s ilk. However, Swisher has enjoyed a .304/.381/.504 line in Cleveland with five homers in 156 career PA. He’ll undoubtedly end up batting cleanup in the Indians lineup, so there should be plenty of RBI opportunities for the veteran, entering his tenth season in the Majors. He’s been a very consistent Fantasy producer over the past three seasons and I see no reason to believe he’ll do otherwise with the Indians. At the very least, Swisher should be a solid third outfielder on any Fantasy squad in all formats.
Another Move for Seattle?
The Mariners are apparently not done trying to rebuild their offense. Rumor has them linked to one further move to add an impact bat to the lineup. Michael Bourn is one possibility, though they may have competition from the Braves, who have made it clear that they have not ruled out bringing him back. If not Bourn, then who? One possibility is a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks for Justin Upton. The D’backs have a surplus in the outfield now that they’ve signed Cody Ross. Upton would certainly bring more of a return in trade than Jason Kubel or Gerardo Parra, and the Mariners have plenty of young pitching to offer in a deal. Don’t be surprised to see the Mariners put something together for Upton in the coming days. Bourn makes more sense for the Braves anyway. They’re set in center with B.J. Upton and could install Bourn in left field. That would allow them to use Martin Prado at third base instead of Juan Francisco, improving both their offense and defense – not to mention making choices easier for Fantasy managers.
Sources:
Fangraphs.com
Baseball_Reference.com
Tim McCullough is the Assistant Editor for RotoExperts.com. Questions, comments and requests are welcome. Contact Tim at tim.m@rotoexperts.com
Follow me on Twitter @ TimM_RotoExpert
