Which prospect, either called up or on their way, are you most excited about for fantasy baseball?

 

Not sure if I would categorize myself as excited, but I am interested to see what Matt LaPorta does the rest of the way in Cleveland.  The organization has really come under fire (and rightfully so) after this year’s deadline shenanigans, and they are desperate to show that they got something of value for CC Sabathia last year.  LaPorta performed well in Triple-A this season with 17 homers and 60 RBIs in 338 at-bats, and he was even called up to the majors back in May.  However, in typical Tribe fashion, they called up a highly touted youngster only to give him very sporadic at-bats.  Now, with all the trades and injuries, LaPorta should play just about every day in the outfield, which should give the team an idea of whether he’s the real deal or the next Andy Marte.  So far, so good for LaPorta.  He’s hit in each of his first seven games this time around with five doubles and a homer.  Pretty much every spot on the Indians is up for grabs going into next year, so a strong performance down the stretch will go a long way toward determining his 2010 fate.
Andy Bottoms

 

My young call-up is already here - Travis Snider.   He's going to play everyday and he's going to show everyone, even as a 21-year-old, that he's one of the best young bats in the game.  People seem to think he's only a power hitter, but he can hit for average just as well.  He's going to be a stud in this league, and we're going to get a taste of that over the final five weeks.
Paul Bourdett

 

The September callup I'm most interested in seeing got a promotion a bit early. The Rockies called up Eric Young Jr. this week after Dexter Fowler hit the DL with a bone bruise. Fowler is fast, but Young is faster. The 23-year-old had 58 steals for the Rockies Triple-A squad before his callup. Prior to that, he had seasons of 46, 73 and a ridiculous 87 steals in 2006. Of course, he was caught stealing 31 times in '06, but you get the idea. There is some serious speed here. Im really excited to see if this can translate to the major league level. If it does, we are looking at the top steals threat in all of fantasy baseball. He's hit in the .290s for all four years in the minors,  and actually has a little pop in his bat. He really reminds me of a faster version of Jacoby Ellsbury. 
Brad Rysz

 

I'm all over Austin Jackson -- I'm focused on guys I know can contribute, and AJ is one. He's got a composite of Johnny Damon and Brett Gardner somewhere inside him, and he's got a shot to make the postseason roster, so they'll let him lay it out there. If the Yanks give a guy like A-Jax a shot, the playoffs could become a breeze, based purely on mojo. Let's go! The OBP might lag behind Damon, it exceeds BG's offerings. And I've seen A-Jax hit balls well past where Johnny Rockets hits 'em. I'm on board. Go Yanks.
Antonio D'Arcangelis 

 

This is an easy question for me -- Eric Young Jr. I have been spouting off about EY Jr. all season. He was hitting .299 with 58 SBs at Triple-A when he was called up earlier this week. The speed demon can hit for average, has some pop and could be a run-scoring machine at the top of the Rockies' order.
Further, his positional flexibility (can play OF and 2B) will get him plenty of playing time down the stretch. Young has learned to take more walks the past two seasons (.71 BB/K this year). If refines his plate patience just a tad more, he could be a fantasy god given his wheels. Even if you aren't a September call-up fan, you gotta be stashing this kid on your roster in keeper leagues. Clint Barmes is not the long-term answer at 2B for the Rocks. Look for EY Jr and Desmond Jennings to make Andrew McCutchen-like rookie impacts in 2010.
Brandon Root

 

The player I am going to enjoy watching come into his own is Neftali Feliz. I am a sucker for young fireballing pitchers who can completely dominate a game. It can be a terrible addiction (see Prior, Mark), but I absolutely love the strikeout. Feliz has been nothing short of incredible thus far. In just over 16 innings he's allowed a measly five hits and one lone walk. Oh yeah, he's also sent 21 batters back to the dugout for the walk of shame. It's not always the best fantasy strategy to count on young pitchers, but from a pure fan standpoint Feliz is going to be a lot of fun to watch. It'll be interesting to see how the Rangers handle his career. He's been dominant as a reliever, but what if he can do that for seven innings every five days. I'm over the pains that Mark Prior left on my fantasy heart and ready to make a full commitment to Mr. Feliz.
Doug Anderson

Summary

Eric Young Jr and Austin Jackson make appearances in this weeks' The Deep End, but from the looks of the excitement, they maybe leaving your waiver wire shortly. They are a little one-dimensional in that they won't significantly contribute in fantasy's traditional power categories, but their speed could be just what the doctor ordered in many cases.

On the other hand, there's a bit of an interesting dichotomy between Travis Snider and Matt LaPorta going on.  Though LaPorta out-OPS'ed Snider in the minors (.941 to .916), LaPorta did so between the ages of 22 and 24 while Snider did his damage from age 18 to age 21. 

By the law of Look at the Ages, Dummy, Snider is the better prospect on that basis alone. He's also more atheletic and owns a little bit of speed. On the other hand, the older LaPorta might be readier, and his edges in slugging and strikeout rate might be real. In the next month, we may get to find out how different they are, and how much their ages might factor into their performances. I find the two of them to be the most interesting prospects this year, in a tie.

 

Who are your top five fantasy players for 2010 drafts?

 

In a traditional 5X5 here are my top picks.

Albert Pujols (1B, STL) – No brainer, may be the best hitter ever if he continues.
Joe Mauer (C, MIN)– Now that power has developed to join with his incredible batting patience and solid contact, he becomes as dangerous as any player in the league.  And he's at a position that is scarce to find great hitters.
Mark Reynolds (3B, ARI) – Scary the amount of power that has emerged from this guy – hitting one home run per  11 at-bats.  I almost think he's the Jack Cust the A's wish they got as he is a true outcome hitter mostly.   Except he has 38 home runs.  Cust won't come close to that number, nor will he the 21 SB that Reynolds has added.  He's become a nearly five tool guy.  His average will never approach .300 with his 72 percent contact rate which is scary, but it’s hard to deny he’s no fluke.
Carl Crawford (OF, TB) - Because speed is an elusive category, you have to put Crawford and his average of 50 steals, his plus .300 average and nearly 100 runs, and you have to speed what Pujols is to power.  He can almost single-handedly deliver you the SB category.
Troy Tulowitzki (SS, COL) – We've been waiting to see him emerge as the power shortstop some forecasted.  I’m going on a limb and saying wait no more.  He's the heir apparent to Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes with less speed.  Since his early season struggles, he's hit no lower than .293 for the last three months, powering 7 home runs in each of June and July.  He already has four in August.  Add 15 stolen bases, and the fact he's 24.  I expect next year will be a full six months of Tulo power, and he'll be in the middle of a promising and young Colorado lineup. 
Jon Phillips

 

Albert Pujols
This is the lock of all locks. Nine straight 30-homer, 100-RBI seasons will do that. His value won't necessarily increase if the Cardinals re-sign Matt Holliday, but it can't hurt.
Hanley Ramirez (SS, FLA)
He should be either No. 1 or 2 in every format. His move from leadoff hitter to the three-hole has brought down his steals, but he`ll still rip 30 bags per year through his mid-20s. His position makes him an justifiable No. 1 selection over Pujols.
David Wright (3B, NYN)
I'm a believer. He's still a great fantasy player, witnessed by a .324 batting average and 24 steals. He's young enough to make hitting adjustments and still tap the power that's in his bat.
Alex Rodriguez (3B, NYA)
He's a top five pick next year for single-year leagues. For keeper leagues, I might put him more at the 7-9 area. But there's no doubt a clean bill of health will propel him back to the top of the fantasy mountain.
Ryan Braun (OF, MIL)
I can't think of a glaring fantasy weakness. He's hitting for average now (.314 AVG), obviously hits for power and seems good for 15 steals per year. Grady Sizemore is also an option here, but his steals advantage over Braun is mitigated by a far inferior batting average.
Kyle Stack

 

1. Albert Pujols - He's the man until proven otherwise. Absolutely no flaws in his game. He's consistent, which makes him just as good in head-to-head leagues as in rotisserie. Ideal combination of power and average, with 15-steal potential.
2. Hanley Ramirez - Has the potential to overtake Pujols because of his speed, but seems to find himself injured rather often. Pujols durability makes him a safer pick than Ramirez.
3. Ryan Braun - Proved this year that he really is a .300 hitter. A mini version of Pujols with his average, power and moderate speed. Hitting behind Prince Fielder, he will score a ton of runs for years to come. I still don't think he's tapped his power potential yet.
4. Carl Crawford - Finally had a healthy year and it was a massive one at that. The top speed threat in the game, Crawford also showed flashes of some power this year. Not only will he steal 70 bases, but he'll do it hitting .300 with 15 homers, 70 RBIs and 100 runs.
5. Tim Lincecum - The strikeouts are ridiculous and he appears to be immune to injury. The perfect fantasy pitcher.
Brad Rysz

 

1. Albert Pujols – He’s not going to get you steals, but his OPS is currently at 1.117, he’s approaching 40 dongs, and he doesn’t go through prolonged slumps. It doesn’t matter what the matchup or where, Albert is a MA-Cheen! And a quick look at his .288 BABIP this season means he’ll likely improve his batting average next season (still a 5X5 staple the last time I checked) to go along with the ridiculous power numbers.
2. Hanley Ramirez – The former Red Sox prospect (never get tired of saying that) rebounded well from a slow start to establish himself once again as an all-category contributor. Granted, his BABIP is currently off eth charts at .407, but we all know that BABIP for hitters is a double-edged sword. The guy mashes. If some of the talent in the early Marlins order fills out, he could be primed for his best season to date in 2010.
3. Carl Crawford – Who pissed off Carl? My guess is he’s miffed at fantasy owners, who largely ignored him until rounds 2 and 3 of 2009 drafts because of an ADP around 40. Crawford has 54 steals, is a shoo-in for 200 hits, and is sporting the best OBP and OPS of his career. He’s at home in the two slot of the Rays lineup and with all the young talent that’s emerged in Tampa Bay, he’ll continue to improve his overall numbers.
4. Joe Mauer – I actually had Mauer penned for a regression in 2009. My stupidity has proven to be without bounds, as has the young Twins’ catcher’s talent. His 1.101 is completely unheard of from a catcher slot – at least aside from shampoo-pimping liabilities who boast rampant bacne (heck, even the best that guy ever did was 1.070 for the Dodgers in ’97) – and it seems he’s got some of that Crawford resentment going, too, since his ADP (52) was about 10 slots more offensive than King Carl’s.
5. Tim Lincecum (SP, SF) – Normally I wouldn’t think of including a pitcher in my Top Five, but Lincecum is not your normal pitcher. He’s already over 200Ks, his peripherals are silly, and the Giants’ marked improvement means he’ll be in line for more of the W, CG, SHO stuff that helps you dominate opponents in deep scoring head-to-head leagues. Who else should fill this lot? A-Rod? Ian Kinsler, Miguel Barera? Jose Reyes? Mark Teixeira? None will give you the balance of consistency and elite performance you want from a top pick. Next year, slot the San Francisco Treat in your Fav Five.

Antonio D’Arcangelis

 

I know this seems counterintuitive, but I’m going with Brett Favre at number one.  Here are the next five after him. 

1. Hanley Ramirez – He’ll be 26 on opening day next season and will give you solid production in every category at a shallow position.
2. Albert Pujols – I had a tough time not putting Pujols atop the list, but Ramirez gets the nod based on position.  Still, Albert will make another run at the triple crown and will post double-digit steals too.
3. Chase Utley (2B, PHI)– Position scarcity is the key here, and he’ll be another year removed from hip surgery.  Expect him to post what will be his sixth straight season of at least .290-20-100-10.  Ok, so he had just nine steals in 2007 but you get the idea.
4. Ryan Braun – Like Ramirez, he’ll be just 26 years old.  Braun is a virtual lock to hit .310 with 30-plus homers, 115 RBIs, and 15 steals.  The fact that he plays outfield is the only thing that puts him behind Utley.
5. Alex Rodriguez – The average this year has been rough, but imagine the power numbers he can post with a full season in the Yankee launching pad.

Andy Bottoms

 

1) Albert Pujols
2) Hanley Ramirez
3) Alex Rodriguez
4) Evan Longoria
5) Chase Utley

Chris Carbonell

 

I've thought about this maybe half a second. Evan Longoria (3B, TB) has got to be in there, but #1 sounds kind of high. I think Joe Mauer has got to be in there too (and if Pablo Sandoval (3B, SF) still qualifies at C for 2010 in your league, you have to also, but I know he doesn't in standard leagues...). I think Albert Pujols is probably the #1 because he's so good across so many categories. I would probably make Chase Utley #2 because despite the rise of guys like Aaron Hill (2B, TOR), 2b is still pretty thin.  Longoria third, Mauer fourth. The fifth? That's tough. I guess I'd go HRam...

Matt Strausberg

 

1.  Albert Pooholes:  Seriously, if I really need to justify this decision, you probably accidentally stumbled upon this site in a misguided attempt at finding a plumber -- I think you were looking for RotoRooters.com.

2.  Hanley Ramirez:  Didn't you just read what I said? 

3.  Mark Texiera (1B, NYA):  Alright, are the toilet-cloggers gone?  Good.  Now let's discuss.  Imagine if Ryan Howard lost 20 pounds from his waistline, gained 20 points on his batting average, and played with a right field porch built for Little Leaguers.  He'd be just like Mark Texiera.  With already remarkable consistency and durability -- Texiera's a lock for 30/100 every year  -- hitting in the always friendly confines of the Yankees three-hole assures there's no question the big Texan is a Top 5 player heading into '10.

4.  Joe Mauer:  Let me count the ways...he'll be a physically primed 27 years old, his career-average is a Viagra-activating .323 (and rising), and he's on pace to hit more homers this season than he has in the past three years combined.  He's not just head and shoulders above everyone at his position; Mauer's standing on stilts looking down at his competition with a booger-eating grin on his face.  With a healthy back and the possibility of a full-season,  fantasy owners could be in store for one of the greatest in-the-box seasons of All-Time.

5.  Matt Kemp (OF, LAD):  If the key to winning fantasy baseball is packing the most amount of  across-the-board production into the tiny constraints of our rosters, then it would only make sense to target those rare players who not only contribute positively in all  categories, but excel in them.  And that's exactly what Kemp does.  He's already bumped his numbers up from his outstanding '08 season -- hitting primarily from the eight-hole -- and as scary as it seems, we haven't seen him peak yet.  Maybe it's the High Life talking, or maybe I just  feel frisky tonight, but I firmly believe dropping the 5th pick on "The Bison" is not an outlandish proposition.   

Chris Ryan

 

Summary:

It looks like there's a consensus at the top of the board. Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez share the #1 and #1A spots, and depending on how much you care about positional scarcity, that should be the case going forward. After those two, though, there's a scrum for slots three through five.

I hear the Joe Mauer noise, but are the injuries really behind him? The power seems for real, but will he get as many at-bats as, say, a Pujols or a Mark Teixeira? Traditionally, catchers get more days off. He's not in my top 5.

If you really are going to go with positional scarcity, why not get a guy who's on the top of his game and plays a position that plays every day, like Chase Utley? Reading all the arguments, I don't see too much that sways me away from Utley. Yes, he's 30, but he looks like he's in good shape, and he doesn't play catcher or anything. 

 

Third base had an infusion of talent this year, and with David Wright's missing power and Alex Rodriguez' missing batting average, I see where the confusion lies. Where to next? The top shortstop used to be Jose Reyes, but if owners are shy about his hamstrings being an ongoing problem, I don't blame them. Reyes did cost me more than a couple leagues this year.

 

Here's a bet that David Wright finds his power and deserves his fourth-place preseason ranking many times over by the end of the year. Even if he goes .320/15/30 with a bunch of RBI, that's pretty good for third base. And the upside for a 30/30 guy at third base is worth a little sweat. 

 

So for the fifth and final spot, we have Troy Tulowitzki, Carl Crawford, Mark Teixeira, Matt Kemp, Tim Lincecum and Ryan Braun. I'll take Braun, the biggest bat of the bunch, even with the lack of positional bonus. Braun is brauny. I don't take pitchers, first base is deeper than it's ever been, and I avoid speed-only types as long as I can.

 

(But for #s 6 and 7, I'm debating between Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki and Matt Kemp, if you're asking. They can contribute in all five categories.) 

During fantasy baseball drafts this year, I made acquiring James Shields of Tampa Bay a priority.  Following a 2008 season that suggested he was just beginning to tap into his enormous talent (14-8 record with a 3.56 ERA and a 4:1 K:BB ratio), Shields seemed poised to emerge as an elite starter.  And in many cases, I felt guilty being able to scoop him up as late as the middle rounds.  In retrospect, however, I wasn't as shrewd a judge of talent as I had hoped.

I never would have thought it possible, but I have begun sacrificing Shields to the waiver alter.  Following another lackluster outing August 14, his season record was a pedestrian 7-9, including just one victory in his past 10 starts.   To his credit, he has assembled an impressive 118/40 K/BB ratio and his 3.88 ERA ranks well below the league average.  But this was someone on the verge of great things, not an inning eating sub-.500 pitcher.  So what went wrong?  First, you can't discount his cumulative heavy workload (215 IP in both 2007 and 2008) and the toll it has taken on his arm or his tendency to serve up big innings to the opposition.  Second, he is at best an average performer on the road.  This season, Shields is 3-4 with a 4.46 ERA away from home.  To become an elite fantasy option, he needs to become a more efficient travelling man.  Finally, injuries to Scott Kazmir and David Price's inconsistency contributed to a weakened Rays starting rotation.  However, that situation was tailor made for Shields to assert some leadership and be the man.  However, as his performance has demonstrated, he was unable to answer the call.   There have been numerous fantasy disappointments this season (Chris Davis, anyone?) and Shields unfortunately has earned a spot on the A list for 2009.    

Who is your favorite all-star player, from a fantasy perspective?

How could you not say Albert Pujols (1B, STL)?
He's been so exceptionally brilliant for so long that people forget that he is in his power prime right now. All the talk of steroids surround him as they should considering the state of baseball, but Albert has been mashing since he broke into the league in 2001.
In fact, his worst year in home runs was 2007 when he was bothered with the elbow and ONLY hit 32 HR and 103 RBI.  If he plays long enough he may go down as the greatest player of all time.
Ben Ice

That's a no brainer - who in their right mind wouldn't trade nearly anyone on their roster for King Albert (Pujols)? He is the closest thing to perfect the game has seen this year. If he stays healthy, this will be a season to remember.
Tommy Landry

Justin Upton (OF, ARI).
The hype appears justified. Upton looks as though he’ll be in that rarefied air with Alex Rodriguez (3B, NYA) and Ken Griffey Jr. (OF, SEA) -- players who ranked among the fantasy elite just as they were old enough to order a Bud.
I’ll concede that my man crush has been reserved for Justin`s older brother, B.J. Upton (OF, TB), whose fluid athleticism and easy-going demeanor make him my favorite player to watch. Yet Justin has reached top-shelf status a year earlier than expected, setting the stage for a decade of first round value.
Kyle Stack

Considering most of the players involved in the game are fantasy relevant, I'll go with my personal favorite, Evan Longoria (3B, TB). You can call it mancrush if you want, because there is no point in denying the truth. In slightly over a full-year of MLB ball, Longoria has made his presence known. He hits third in a stacked lineup, behind speedsters B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford (OF, TB), giving him ample RBI opportunities. He's been hampered by a lingering hamstring injury, which has undoubtedly played a role in his decreasing batting average, but he claims he is feeling much better. He's learning how to take a walk, work the count in his favor and play with fame. He will finish the year with 35 homers, 115 RBI and close to a .300 average. Have I mentioned that he's only 23-years-old? Longoria is a manbeast and a future Top Five fantasy star.
Brad Rysz

Joe Mauer (C, MIN) – I included Mauer on my list of projected busts heading into 2009, and I was terribly wrong. He's even exceeded the statistical expectations of his biggest fans with .373/.447/.622 and a ridiculous 1.069 OPS. Mauer should probably be the starting catcher for the next 10 AL All-Star teams, even if Matt Wieters (C, BAL) ends up staying at behind the dish a few years into his career. And from what I hear, he's even a fledgling rapper. Is there anything the guy can't do?
Antonio D'Arcangelis

I guess my favoite All-Star from a fantasy perspective is Edwin Jackson (P, DET). I think I've owned him every year at one point or another for the last five years and none of them has been because I kept him from one season to the next. So its nice to see him finally reach his potential. Plus, I acquired him in one of my keeper leagues in a very controversial deal (it involved Pujols going to the first place team in a six player deal and naturally the teams right behind that first place team were upset) and it kind of justifies my acquisition of him.
Matt Strausberg

Aaron Hill (2B, TOR) has been my favorite, by far.  I was high on this guy back in January, and it's nice to see him improve on the potential he showed us in 2007, before he missed most of last season with a head injury.   I can't understand why so many people weren't high on him.  I mean, he was one of only three second baseman in '07 to post a .290-15-85-75 season (Chase Utley (2B, PHI) & Dustin Pedroia (2B, BOS) were the others) .  Was it that hard to believe he could do it again or do it even better?  And no, I'm not that giddy over his first half to think he'll hit .300 or close to 40 HRs.  But I do think he'll hit .280-25-90-90 and that's one hell of a second-baseman.
Paul Bourdett

I get the benefit of summarizing this after the game was played, so  it's easy to point out that Albert Pujols had a poor game, and that Carl Crawford was the Ray that had the most effect on the actual game. But, other than to make a comment about Brad's introduction (most of the all-stars are fantasy-relevant? How about all. I think you can go that far), there will be no sniping here.

No I'll just say that I was surprised by how much I liked Adam Jones (OF, BAL). My response may be out of the Antonio mold - I like Adam Jones because I really didn't like him going into the season. Someone with his aversion to walking, his strikeout rate - I really thought there was a chance that he could be the next Corey Patterson (OF, WAS). The athletic tools were there, but was he going to cash in?

From the looks of his body language and his play in the All-Star game, and the concrete results of the first half, he looks like a Player with a capital P.
Eno Sarris

 

Suffice it to say, there's been no shortage of hype surrounding rookie arrivals this season (see Matt Wieters, Tommy Hanson, and David Price) and yet, Mat Latos, a 21-year-old arm in the San Diego Padres system who has excelled at stops in Single-A (25.1 IP, 27/3 K/BB, 0.36 ERA) and Double-A (47.0 IP, 1.91 ERA, 46/9 K/BB), has gone largely unnoticed in fantasy circles. 

However, after an eight-pitch, 1-2-3 inning in the Futures game on Sunday - where five of his eight pitches registered 96 mph or higher  - this cat is officially out of the bag.   The Padres certainly took notice and are expected to promote Latos to the big league squad for a start against the Rockies at PETCO Park on Sunday.   From all reports, this isn't a one-start tryout; he should be here to stay. 

His arsenal includes the aforementioned heater, a slider and change.  His secondary pitches may still need refinement, but he's clearly got enough of "it" to make an impression in the bigs.  Factor in his pitcher-friendly home address, and the 6-foot-6 righty could make an immediate impact in 12-team-mixers.  

Just one caveat:  Latos has already thrown more innings this season (72.1 IP) than he did last (56.0 IP), and with the Padres likely to shut him down after about 110 innings or so, his stay in the rotation will only last about 6-8 starts.  

The PUA's Prognosis:  2-2, 3.95 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 33 Ks in 42 IP. 

Who is your biggest non-injury bust bat for the first half of the season?

Russell Martin (C, LAD) -- Considering he's a catcher and torrents of fantasy hopefuls wasted early picks on him so he'd provide huge value out of a traditionally weak roster slot, Martin's my biggest bust. He's got just 1 HR, 7 steals and is OPSing .664. That's worse than David Eckstein. Actually, it's kind of a toss-up between Martin and Jimmy Rollins (SS, PHI), since Rollins is another guy who's usually taken in the top two or three rounds based on his SS designation, but I'm still holding out hope that "Shimmy" starts producing after the All-Star break. I've got Russell Martin in an FSWA insider's experts league, and he's killing my team (and I say that after Chien-Ming Wang (SP, NYA) had three starts for me). To quote a crew member from the Howie Kendrick (2B, LAA) roundtable: He's dead to me.
Antonio D’Arcangelis

That one's easy. Jimmy Rollins. Consensus late first round/early second round pick down the drain. He's actually been a negative contributor across the board. It'll be interesting to see how far he falls in drafts next year.
Paul Bourdett

I really never expected Magglio Ordonez (OF, DET) to turn into a singles hitter. A decline of some sort was no surprise, but I did not expect it to this degree. Geovany Soto (C, CHN) has also been a major bust, and it's really hard to decide between him and Magglio. But Soto is showing some signs of promise again lately, and I'd like to see what he can do in the second half. I'm glad I got rid of Magglio earlier in the year.
Scott Engel

Corey Hart (OF, MIL).  Killing me. Relegated to being leadoff. No RBI. Striking out a ton (67 already vs. 28 BBS)  Five SB.  It doesn't get much worse for a guy who we thought was on the upswing into his prime.
Jonathan Phillips

As tempted as I am to pick Chris Davis (1B, TEX), it has to be Jimmy Rollins.  He was a first round pick and recently found himself benched, which tells you all you need to know about how bad he’s been.  Just in case it doesn’t, check out these statistical nuggets.  His walk rate is still on the decline and the lowest of his career (except for his 14-game 2000 season).  His line drive percentage is down almost 10% from a year ago.  He’s swinging at more pitches both in and out of the zone but making less contact, and he’s on pace to steal fewer than 30 bags for the first time since 2003.  Other than that, he’s been terrific.  Admittedly, some of it is luck with a low BABIP, but that can’t account for all of J-Roll’s struggles.  He’s logged a ton of games over the past eight seasons, and maybe that’s finally taking its toll. His impatience at the plate isn’t helping either.
Andy Bottoms

My vote goes for Chris Davis, maybe only because I have faith that Jimmy Rollins will get through his problems and bat like the .297 post-all-star bat he's been.

But faith gets you into a bind sometimes, and Chris Davis really screwed me this year. His position was weak this year, and I thought: "Well, because of his strikeout rate, his average won't be good, but hey, he'll probably hit me 30 home runs from a shallow position." Well, yeah, both of those things ended up being true, but the average and strikeout blew right on past 'not good' to 'astronomically bad.'

He's on pace to break strikeout record, and I've spent time doing linear regression analysis for the relationship between strikeouts and batting average. That's how bad he's been.

Manny Ramirez is scheduled to rejoin the Dodger lineup on July 3, creating a logjam in the outfield.  With the expectation Manny will play as long as he can stand on two legs, the music must change.  Matt Kemp is a virtual lock in centerfield, given his defensive viruosity and the elite blend of speed and power he offers.  Andre Ethier is a streaky hitter but as his recent three home run outburst demostrated, one capable of carrying a team when hot.  It became apparent in the immediate aftermath of Ramirez' suspension (when Ethier entered a prolonged hitting funk) that he is a more fearsome bat with Manny around.  That leaves the often maligned Juan Pierre as apparent odd man out.  Recall that from opening day through May 6 (when Manny's suspension was handed down), Pierre tallied just 31 at-bats in 29 games.  That pattern will likely resume beginning July 3 barring an injury.  From a fantasy perspective, Pierre retains value as a three category contributor (runs, average and steals) but only in a reserve capacity.  Now is the time to move him if you can find an unsuspecting owner who is unaware  of the impending drop in his playing time. 

"That's in the past.  Whatever happened, that's in the past. I'm coming to play my game and move on. What happened, happened. I spoke to [owner] Frank McCourt, I apologized, I spoke to [manager] Joe Torre, my teammates and I'm ready to move on. I didn't kill nobody, I didn't rape nobody. That's it." - Manny Ramirez


Someone give this dog a bone, eh?  He's right you know.  He didn't kill anyone.  He didn't rape anyone.  He wants us to keep everything in perspective.

EXCEPT....

He's taken it so far out of perspective, that how the heck could anyone keep things on the level now?  I mean, the genius of the Manny Ramirez defense is that it can work for just about any petty crime, and in any situation. 

STORE CLERK: I found the gum in your pocket.  You stole this.
THIEF:  Yeah, but I didn't klll nobody.
STORE CLERK:  You're right.  Take it.  You're a good boy.

He's right.  Nanny is not on trial for rape or murder.  And in that context, he's an angel.  All he did was take a few drugs that caused him to play baseball at possibly a much higher level than he ever could have normally, and then he lied about it.  So what?  Why should we give a damn?

We should give a damn the same way we give a damn about our kids cheating on their tests, or stealing that pack of gum.  If you have no guidelines in what you do, who you are, how you behave, than what are you?  What's funny is that we'll act incredibly shocked later on in life wihen after Manny's career is over, he's either in jail, or is arrested.  We'll be like, man, how can someone with so much blow it so easily.  And we'll never ponder that the proverbial slap on the wrist that should have come way back when but didn't, is one of the reasons why.  We were stunned by O.J. Simpson, but really should we have been -- someone who had probably had the rules bent for him countless times on his rise to the top suddenly snaps, and we're shocked?  In all of these athletes' minds somewhere there has to be this belief the rules will just keep bending.

To make an absurdist defense about how he didn't kill anyone as your reasoning for why your indiscretion should just be forgotten is as stupid as the assumption that those who kill or rape are the only real criminals out there.   Hey Nanny, you fool, remember Ken Lay and Jeffrey Skilling of Enron?  Yeah, they didn't kill anyone either.  But considering the ruins they left some people in, there's an argument to be made they theoretically stabbed their consortium through the heart.

No, Manny didn't steal any money?  Well wait, didn't he?  Would he have received his eight year, $160 million dollar deal had he not used?  Or what about his two year, $45 million dollar extension with the Dodgers after his ridiculous August/September of last year.  You see, in theory, he has stolen something from all of us.

There's long been this argument that has been waged over just where athletes should figure in our kids lives.  Some ballplayers say hey, I'm just here to play ball.  I'm not a role model.  Others realize they are in the public eye, and therefore become role models whether they like it or not.  And for you Manny Ramirez, whose contract is paid for partly in the sale of your dreadlock hats and jerseys to teenagers and kids, I say give me a break.  Don't ask those kids that naturally idolize what they thought was your ability, to respect you and give you benefit of the doubt when you didn't respect yourself enough to play truthfully.  Don't ask them to give more when you've given so little, and your only defense is, well hey, you're not a real criminal.

Your address the other day to the press is exactly that - criminal.  Why?  Because you would compare your crime, which you have basically now admitted to, to others of such a sadistic nature in order to ameliorate the blow to your own ego, that's why.  It's an attempt to downplay what you knew and have known to be true all along.  That you were cheating.  That you were lying about it.  And you got caught.

You can try to forget about it.  You can say it's in the past.  But I won't forget.  To me, you're a liar and a cheat.  And the one saving grace is that the sportswriters won't forget either -- you know, the ones that determine your Hall of Fame ballot.  And just like Barry, Mark and Roger, the likelihood of your admission has decreased exponentially.

Oh, I know that bothers you Manny, but hey, don't hate us.  We didn't kill anybody.

 

Dear Frank Wren (and for that matter columnist Mark Bradley):

So you released Tommy Glavine.  No big deal, right.  Except I don't quite get why you waited until he pitched six scoreless innings at a rehab start to do it.  Then you claimed this was performance based, not that this was a business decision. 

Suddenly, all your executives are chiming in, falling in line, claiming that this was unanimous.  Except, that according the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, someone inside tipped Glavine off as to what was going on prior to your delivery of the ax.  Hey, call me stupid, but if everything's on the up-and-up, there's no 'tipping' necessary.  Clearly, unanimous, in your case, doesn't mean everybody.

Let's face some cold hard facts.  You blind-sided this guy, because he was going to make nearly $2.5 million at 43 years of age, an investment you shouldn't have made in the first place.  He was always a pitch-to-contact hurler, (career 5.3 K/9, season best 6.9) so one has to think that any velocity based comments are bogus.
And the only way to cover your ass was to let Glavine hopefully seal his own fate by pitching badly enough to get you off the hook.  Except that didn't happen.  Six scoreless, three hits, no walks... yet this was performance based?  Apparently, you think the Atlanta fans are as naïve as David Littlefield's Pirates fans.

You've had an ace up your sleeve this whole time (pun intended) in Tommy Hanson, and a suddenly crowded rotation when you promoted Kris Medlen and Kenshin Kawakami found the handle.  Certainly, Hanson was Major League ready.  And financially, you needed one to lure one Nate McLouth away from the Pirates because clearly the pressure you're feeling from a middling 26-26 record has limited your patience with rookie Jordan Schafer. 

Shame on columnist Mark Bradley for taking your side Mr. Wren, condemning the 305 game-winners' display of slight distaste at management's last-minute discard.  Bradley claims the Braves were great to give Glavine a million dollar opportunity at age 43.  And I say at 43, Mr. Wren, having been at one time the face of your franchise, a 'golden boy of sorts' for 15 years putting up 20-plus wins in five of them, it was either one of two things:  He either simply deserved that million for making you one hundred times that in ticket sales, playoff series and World Series appearances, or it was just a stupid decision to begin with.   

Either way, Mr. Glavine has done nothing wrong but try to get his body back to playing shape after shoulder and elbow injuries.  And for Bradley to condemn Glavine, a modern day marvel on the mound, as opposed to the management  that had to have known where this was headed, is disgraceful.

 Many people will say it's 'good business' that Glavine was released, and I don't disagree.  But doing good business doesn't forgive bad style and cowardice.  Used to be business was a model on how things were to be done, with order and  preciseness, with directness and clarity.  If business is our excuse these days for not wanting to deal with a bad situation directly, I seriously worry about what will happen when it's personal.  Because while this was a smart business decision, personally, it made you all look shady.

This week, I asked a simple question. What young infielder is going to turn it around?

What followed started out like most roundtables… and descended into chaos.

Wow.  Lots of candidates here.   Jimmy Rollins sand Adrian Beltre immediately come to mind, and if this were three weeks ago, I might've said Alexei Ramirez.  I'm not sure there's an infielder in the game, though, who's got more room for improvement than Garrett Atkins.  Typically a slow starter, he's taken it to the extreme with his Vanilla Ice cold start to 2009 (OK, that was corny).   But while his owners have taken it on the chin with his sub-.200 batting average and three homers, a closer look at his numbers encourages a spirit of optimism.  First and foremost, Rockies new skipper Jim Tracy fills out his lineup card with a Sharpie, meaning Atkins name should remain in the four-hole on a permanent basis.  You can't discount confidence level here.  Knowing he'll be out there every day and hitting in a good spot in the order can be awfully reassuring to someone, who just weeks ago, was on the brink of losing his everyday job.  Second, he hasn't done anything different in the batter's box.  Sure, he's hitting a few more ground balls and a few less line drives, but the differences are minimal considering the sample size.  The fact that his walk and strikeout rates mirror his career averages is more telling, because it signals a consistency in his approach.  Lastly, the real reason for his downfall – and I know this has become the excuse of the day – is pure, unadulterated misfortune.  Not only is his current .216 average on balls in play almost a hundred points lower than his career mark, but his averages on all types of batted balls (LD/GB/FB) are completely out of whack with his established norms.  Assuming he stays in Colorado (really, who wants him now?), I have no doubt the bad luck will run out and Atkins will become the hitter we've all come to know and love over the past few years.  And if he doesn't, it's simple – he’s been playing hurt. 
Paul Bourdett

In terms of being able to help your fantasy team this year, my choice here is Rangers 1B Chris Davis. I'm not usually too optimistic about guys who make it into the month of June batting under .200, but Davis is worth the patience. He's looked absolutely lost at the plate, but managed to yoke 12 HR in the process. This isn't a guy who will ever challenge for a batting title, but there's no reason to think he can't look more like the .285 hitter he was last year, and if that happens, his massive amount of power (in one of most hitter-friendly parks in baseball) is all yours. This is a guy who had a lot of expectations coming into the year, and it's worth remembering that he's just 23 years old. As the season wears on, I see no reason he can't right the ship and get his head where it needs to be. Once that happens, your league will curse you for being so patient with him.
Matthew Greber

Well, considering Edwin Encarnacion has been ripping the hell out of my rectum continuing to screw me good, I really hope he doesn't turn it around and hope I do the same thing to him! But I guess to answer the question, of those you mentioned, I like Atkins to turn it around a bit.
Mark Strausberg

From:        Mark Strausberg
Sent:     Wed 6/03/09 7:25 AM
To:     writers
What do you guys think of Howie Kendrick? I know he's kind of stinking on ice this year, but do you think his potential for next year is good or is he just never going to reach his potential?
In one of my keeper leagues I'm thinking about playing for next year and I have Dustin Pedroia, who will not be able to be kept next year. And I have an offer of Brett Myers and Kendrick, who can be kept next year (and Myers for another two) for "no cost" for Pedroia. The reason not to make the deal is opportunity loss--if I could get something better in return for Pedroia. And if Kendrick is the schmendrick he's been so far, its a bad deal for me. However, if he reaches his potential in 2010 that everyone has been saying he has, than it is a good deal.
What do you think of Kendrick?
-MDS

From:          Michael J. Cauda
Sent:     Wed 6/03/09 7:33 AM
To:     writers
I'm all for buying low on Kendrick and betting on his future...but I'd rather have a better arm in the deal than Myers.

From:          Eno Sarris
Sent:     Wed 6/03/09 7:40 AM
To:     writers
I don't like his type too much - he swings at over 30% of balls outside the zone, doesn't walk, and strikes out over 20% of the time currently - but he's better than this. the bad BABIP is obvious (.262), but he's also reaching at fewer and fewer balls outside the zone (down from 40% in 2007) and makes a ton of contact inside the zone (over 90%), so if he gets that strikeout percentage back under 20%, the BABIP comes up, and he continues to swing at fewer balls outside the zone, I see no reason he can't better that career BA from .290 up past .300. Not sure he'll ever have much power while hitting fewer than 30% of his balls in the air, but the speed is developing. Wouldn't hurt him to hit a line drive (12% this year).
The question really is, are you out of it this year? If so, starting with Kendrick, and yeah, getting a better pitcher, would work for me.

From:          Tommy Landry
Sent:     Wed 6/03/09 8:40 AM
To:     writers
Never liked him; never will. He's like Robinson Cano or Placido Polanco - all about health and contact rate. Too many of those guys straight out bust in the bigs. I'd be surprised to see him ever hit double digit HR, especially with all those GB he keeps dinking back to the IF.

From:          Matthew Greber
Sent:     Wed 6/03/09 8:41 AM
To:     writers
For someone like Pedroia, I'd expect a better hitter and a better pitcher (or two better guys of each).  Myers should be essentially free next year in most leagues, and Kendrick shouldn't be too expensive given his struggles either. If I'm trading for next year, I want guys who I can protect at below their market value - not sure either of these guys qualify.

From:          Paul Bourdett
Sent:     Wed 6/03/09 9:28 AM
To:     writers
Except Cano or Polanco have actually produced in the past, lol.  Kendrick has no track record to speak of on the major-league level.
Well...except his track record for being hurt.

From:          Eno Sarris
Sent:     Wed 6/03/09 10:08 AM
To:     writers
He hasn't done NOTHING - he's got 300 games worth of a .294 average. I mean, it's not great, but it is very Cano/Polanco like. If the pitcher were better, I'd consider it. If he's out of it, he'll lose Pedroia for nothing.

From:          Antonio D’Arcangelis
Sent:     Wed 6/03/09 12:45 PM
To:     writers
I'm starting to see that Kendrick really sucks, but I'm sick of the comparisons to Cano (he's OPSing .844 and will easily hit 20-25 HRs this year) Kendrick's OPS CEILING is about .800.

From:          Benjamin Ice
Sent:     Wed 6/03/09 3:10 PM
To:     writers
The thing that is so frustrating about Kendrick is that based on his minor league numbers, he should have been an OPS machine. He played seven years in the minors and that was his claim to fame.
Kendrick had a career .360 BA in the minors, mostly because he had a great eye and made contact with amazing regularity. This is supported by his 77 BB versus 200 SO and .401 OBP during his minor league career. He swung at everything, but he hit most of what he swung at.
Kendrick's biggest failing has been his inability to stay healthy. People tend to forget that he's played parts of four major league seasons and is only 25 years old.
As an owner who drafted him as a minor leaguer in 2003 and sat on him for years in a dynasty league, I feel Mark's pain. I also subscribe to Ron Shandler's philosophy that states "Once a player exhibits a skill, consistent over time, he owns it."
Kendrick owns those skills. The real question here is can he stay healthy.  He hasn't proven that to date, and so has little current or near future value. The caveat here is that he is a worthy late round or end of auction flyer simply because he does have those skills and if he stays healthy, could easily be one of those players who finally lives up to his potential.
If you are giving up Pedroia, even though he is a rental player this year, I would be inclined to shop him harder or counter the person who offered.  If Kendrick gets sent to the minors, a stark reality at this point for the hot hitting Sean Rodriguez, his value will be much less next year and you could pick him up for a song if so inclined.

From:          Tommy Landry
Sent:     Wed 6/03/09 3:23 PM
To:     writers
They're not the same person, because Cano is a real MLB player and Kendrick is proving he is not. That said, I still hate Cano for fantasy purposes, and he ain't keeping up his pace in the power dept. all season.
2/3 of Cano's jacks so far are on the road (6), meaning there's no data to support that the new home park is the cause of his increased power. What was a 2B for him last year is now carrying out of the field for HRs (HR/2B ratio is waaay down). Without a park to explain it, you have to dig deeper.
If you look at his career HR/FB, it's 6.6. So far this year, it's at 8.8. He's hit 102 FB so far and that projects out to 283 over 600 AB. At a 6.6 HR/FB, assuming he gets 600 AB, he'd hit 18.9 HR. Even if he duplicates his 7+ HR/FB rate of 2006/2007, I cannot see him hitting more than 21 HR this season (remind me I said this if I'm wrong). All this assumes full health through the year.
If I owned him in any league, I'd be selling. Aside from the above, he's shown himself to be one of those guys who mashes for half a year, and I haven't heard a compelling argument as to why he won't stink up the place down the stretch. At least his BABIP supports his lofty BA, so you have that.
Did I mention that he's doing all his damage against the O's? If you take out his 34 AB vs. Baltimore, he's hitting .280 with only 5 HR.

From:          Paul Bourdett
Sent:     Wed 6/03/09 3:37 PM
To:     writers
All I have to say is that sometimes performance can't be explained by prior or current statistics.  There's a reason why Ryan Ludwick was an MVP candidate last season and Gavin Floyd won a bunch of games with an ERA under 4.00. It's the same reason why Russell Branyan is hitting .320 in June.  Sometimes, things just don't make sense.
I agree with Ben that once a player shows a skill consistently, he owns it.  Thing is, Kendrick has never shown anything other than his ability to put the bat on the ball, and he hasn't even done that extremely well against superior competition (AAAA player???).  He's shown nothing in the power/speed department to suggest he could ever be elite at either, even for the position he plays.  So if he's not hitting at least .325, he's worthless.  If you wanted .290/10/10, you could've gotten that from Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez.  At least they've done it before.  Heck, you might even be able to get that from Adam Kennedy this year!
Kendrick is dead to me.

From:          Ben Ice
Sent:     Wed 6/03/09 3:48 PM
To:  writers
Kendrick is dead to me... Classic!

From:       Bill Root
Sent:     Wed 6/03/09 5:10 PM
To:     writers
Man, Pick-up Artist, you were offering your entire team to me 2 weeks ago for Kendrick in our in-house league.  I think the term you used was "enormous upside."  C'mon....don't deny it...!
This email thread today could be the roundtable...quality analysis

From:     Paul Bourdett
Sent:     Wed 6/03/09 5:18 PM
To:     writers
I beg to disagree on your version of events Root.  Yes, I did offer you a trade for Kendrick.  And yes, I was desperate for a second baseman at the time.  That said, I believe that it was one hell of a lowball offer.  And c'mon, everybody here knows how I get down.  If I'm going to ask for anybody in a deal, I'm going to talk them down, not up!

From:     Jonathan Phillips
Sent:     Wed 6/03/09 5:24 PM
To:     writers
I just feel so lost now that the truth's out that Bourdett is really a bull-sh!##er.

From:       Jonathan Phillips
Sent:     Wed 6/03/09 5:32 PM
To:     writers
I mean how can the pickup artist, who throws one liners like fastballs not be genuine ;)

From:          mjcauda
Sent:     Wed 6/03/09 6:50 PM
To:     writers
He's from Jersey.  What else did you expect?  We're raised to be that way...