Diamond in the Rough
 7/29/2008

SP David Hernandez, 23 (RHP), Bowie Baysox (Baltimore Orioles)

The word of the day is "opportunity". The Major League Baseball trade deadline is coming up fast and with it comes opportunity. These trades always open up spots for minor leaguers to get their chance. Already we have seen Steven Pearce finally get his full-time gig with the Pirates after the Xavier Nady deal. There will also be opportunities for prospects who may be blocked in their own system to get a better opportunity with another organization. We have witnessed that as well in the Joe Blanton to Philadelphia trade. Second baseman Adrian Cardenas, a very good fantasy prospect, was completely blocked by Chase Utley in the Phillies System. Now, in Oakland (here's that word again), opportunity is his for the making.

There is also a lot of opportunity for you "dynasty" and "keeper" league (DKL) fantasy managers this time of year. Tons of fantasy GMs are throwing in the towel already and are looking to make a deal for some prospects. Prospects are huge in DKL, because you can build from the ground up, but don't overvalue them either. Don't get caught up in the hype of a player if you can get good value for them now. Take a look at Jake McGee blowing out his elbow this year. Hello "Tommy John". There just isn't any guarantee 'til they're in the bigs producing. Besides, there is a ton of talent in the minors, so if you have the opportunity to make a deal that could win your league, take it. At the very least, give it some long hard thought. If you're stuck, check out our RotoExperts forum and "Ask the Expert".

David Hernandez (not the stripper from American Idol) is one of the guys I am talking about, when I mention depth in the minor leagues. Hernandez is a 16th round selection of the Orioles in 2005. He has some of the numbers I look for in fantasy pitching prospects and given the opportunity he may just surprise people. 

Hernandez's 10.6 K/9 rate this year is something that gets me excited. At 23 years old, he's not young for double-A, but it's not exactly old either; especially not for a pitcher. He is a flyball pitcher. A 0.64 GO/AO ratio scares me a bit and his 4.53 BB/9 is a problem. I feel he makes up for that with .213 BAA equally enforced against all hitters (.211 BAA righties, .214 BAA lefties). His K/9 rate was about the same last year and his walks are down which gives me hope his control will be better down the road.

Hernandez's fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and he also has a nasty slider that gives him that nice K/9 rate. I can see him getting his opportunity at the end of this year . Making him Roto-useful (I just made up that word and trademarked it. That's called multi-tasking.) during a two start week down the stretch for some Ks.

Take this opportunity to e-mail Jason Revelia about minor league fantasy prospects at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

2007 A+ (22)
7 W 11 L 4.95 ERA 28 G 27 GS 145.1 INN 139 H 86 R 80 ER 16 HR 47 BB 168 SO 0.66 GO/AO .249 BAA

2008 AA (23)
5 W 4 L 2.63 ERA 21 G 21 GS 109.1 INN 84 H 43 R 32 ER 10 HR 55 BB 129 SO 0.66 GO/AO .213 BAA

 Diamond in the Rough

7/24/2008

C  J.P. Arencibia 22, (R), New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Toronto Blue Jays)

There is nothing better in fantasy baseball than having catcher on your team that is a fantasy stud, not a fantasy dud. You know what I'm talking about; having a catcher that actually helps your team. One you can pencil in your lineup week after week, without the need to check waivers each week to see who is hot. I believe this is going to be one of those guys you can set and forget.

J.P. Arencibia is the 2007 21st overall draft pick of the Toronto Blue Jays. "How can he be a 'Diamond it the Rough' when he was drafted so high?" you ask. The answer is pretty simple. I call a guy a "Diamond in the Rough" when I see he has a chance to be a special fantasy player and I don't hear or read much about him. I also play in some very deep keeper leagues with minor league slots, so I take into account whether or not he is on a roster. Almost all of the guys I write about are not rostered at that time. Now, that we have that settled, back to the fantasy prospect.

J.P. Arencibia played three years at the University of Tennessee, I must be growing as a person I'm not even holding that against him. In 2005 he won the SEC Freshman of the Year Award. He made the SEC All-Conference team as a sophomore and second-team All-SEC as a junior. He finished his college career with a .333 BA, .413 OBP, and a .552 SLG.

Arencibia was on the USA college national team twice and in his first year tied Matt LaPorta and Shane Robinson for the RBI lead with 12. In his second stint he led the team with 9 HR and was second with 37 RBI.

There is no doubt that this kid can hit for power and he has done just that in his first full season. He is hitting for a nice .310 BA with 27 2B, 21 HR, and 83 RBI in between advance-A and double-A. Those are very nice numbers for a catcher. One thing that is a little worrisome for his future is the lack of walks; 11 BB in 365 single-A ABs and zero in 117 double-A ABs. With the power he has I am willing to look past that flaw for now. If it starts to hurt his average as he goes up then I will get concerned.

Arencibia has a good shot to get called up this year. Toronto's catching situation is not getting any younger; Greg Zaun and Rod Barajas, enough said? If not this year. I can say without a doubt, with a good spring, 2009 should be his year.

2007 NYP (21)
.254 BA 228 AB 31 R 58 H 17 2B 1 3B 3 HR 25 RBI 14 BB 56 SO 0 SB 0 CS .309 OBP.377 SLG .686 OPS

2008 A+ and AA (22)

Diamond in the Rough
 7/8/2008

RP Jeff Stevens, 24 (RHP), Buffalo Bisons (Cleveland Indians)

The All-Star Break is just around the corner. We have what looks to be our first team waiving the white flag and looking toward the not so bright future. The Indians have begun the "rebuilding" process by designating Joe "Gas Can" Borowski for assignment. It now looks to be a full overhaul. I just read where C.C. Sabathia was going to the Brewers pending physicals. (Side note: If Matt LaPorta goes to the Indians, he will probably see some playing time this year.) Even if that trade doesn't go down. I still wanted to see who, if anyone, the Indians would turn to for saves in their own organization.

At the Major League level we all know about Rafael Betancourt, Masahide Kobayashi, and Rafael Perez. The Indians also know all about them and what they can do. With a full purging of their roster already started, the Indians may take a look at some of their minor league talent. Their bullpen prospects have been a source of hope, followed shortly by despair. It started with can't miss prospect Fernando Cabrera whose K rate had everyone excited; but throwing strikes tends to be a big part of pitching in relief. He is now with the Baltimore Orioles and is still young enough to develop a feeling for the strike zone, but I'm not betting on it. Next was Tony Sipp, a good pitcher, who isn't finished yet, although arm troubles have led to Tommy John surgery. Betancourt was the answer, only he didn't perform well in that role when Borowski was on the DL. Who's left? Meet Mr. Jeff Stevens.

Jeff Stevens is the "player to be named later," from the now infamous Brandon Phillips trade to Cincinnati.

Stevens was drafted in the 6th round of the 2005 draft. He was expected to be a starter early in his career, but like a lot of pitching prospects was converted into a reliever. Like most starters who get the reins thrown off them with the move to the bullpen, his fastball velocity has increased.  It's now consistently in the 92-93 MPH range, hits 95 MPH at times, and seems to get on hitters faster than that. His four-seam fastball is by no means a straight line and his changeup has a ton of movement.

Stevens K/9IP rate this year between Double-A and Triple-A of 12.2 is outstanding. Add that with his .189 BAA and it tells me guys don't get a lot of contact off him. His BB/9IP rate of 3.8 tells me his control is good enough to stick in the majors.

The Indians are pretty high on him, so don't bet against him getting a shot at the closers role. Stevens isn't going to be a Fantasy League savior this year, but if you're behind in saves in a Roto league, he very well may be able to help you out in the second half.  Deep roster Keeper and Dynasty league players will certainly want to keep tabs on him, so check back to our Triple-A stats to follow his stats. 

2007 A+ and AA (23)
6 W 3 L 2.81 ERA 49 G 0 GS 2 SV 83.1 INN 58 H 30 R 26 ER 6 HR 25 BB 102 SO 0.87 GO/AO .194 BAA

2008 AA and AAA (24)
5 W 2 L 3.40 ERA 29 G 0 GS 6 SV 45 INN 30 H 18 R 17 ER 5 HR 19 BB 61 SO 0.97 GO/AO .189 BAA