TAMPA BAY RAYS

(23-17, through May 15th)

Tom: Zero winning seasons in their 10-year history. One completely awkward retired number – Boggs (#12). And a four man "Hit Show" – Jose Canseco, Greg Vaughn, Vinny Castilla, and Fred McGriff. The Rays have given fans nothing to write home about - that is until this year. Prior to the season the Rays dropped the "Devil" from their name. Why? Political Correctness! Yay! Owner Sternberg cites that the name Rays is pretty darn good enough because it represents "a beacon that radiates throughout Tampa Bay and across the entire state of Florida." It must have worked because the Rays are off and running. At 23-17 they are off to the best start in franchise history. Maybe it was the name change. Maybe it was the fact that they cut ties with loose cannon Elijah Dukes. One thing for sure is that they’ve built their team through the draft and have a lot of homegrown talent on their roster. But, is it good enough to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in the East for a span of 162 games? That’s what we’re going to discuss. Are these Rays fooling us all, or have they finally hit the mother lode in Tampa Bay?

Tom: The list of young talent on this team is astonishing – Evan Longoria, James Shields, Carl Crawford, BJ Upton, Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir, David Price, Jeff Niemann and Carlos Pena. And that list is only the Big League talent they have on their current 40-man roster. They also have one of the deepest farm systems in baseball! The Rays are a fun team to watch and make it well worth that MLB Extra Innings package you bought this year. But just because they are a fun team to watch doesn’t necessarily make them contenders, right? Well I think they are going to be in the thick of things this year. A first place team? Probably not. But a Wild Card? Most definitely! I liken this team to the 2006 Florida Marlins. That year they played inspired baseball under Manager of the Year Joe Girardi, and kept themselves in the Wild Card hunt for most of September. Much like the 2006 Marlins they are a very young team with an average age of 27.7 years among their 40-man roster. I’d argue that this Rays team has more talent than the 2006 Marlins. I’m not sure if this is a bold call, but I am going to slot the Tampa Bay Rays into the American League Wild Card this year. Mother Lode

Matt: Tom – the Rays do have a lot of young talent – and better yet – it seems like all of that young talent is gelling at once. Last year the Rays gave up one more run per game then they scored (4.83 RS/game vs. 5.83 RA/game). This year the Rays are actually scoring fewer runs per game (4.61) – but the big difference from last year is the pitching. This year the Rays are only allowing 4.03 runs/game. That’s almost a two runs/game improvement from 2007. Just for fun, let’s apply Bill James’ Pythagorean Expectation formula to see if the Rays record matches their expected win total based on this formula. The formula is basically RS2/(RS2+RA2). The Rays winning percentage through 40 games is .575. Based on the formula the Rays expected winning percentage should be .568, so based on what they’ve accomplished on the field, their record reflects that very accurately. If the Rays can maintain a .568 winning percentage, they will finish with a 92-72 final record. So the $64,000 question is: What will it take for the Rays to continue this pace? Obviously, they are going to need to maintain the excellent pitching, and improve their record in one-run games – in which they are currently 4-4. I don’t think they will get to 92 wins this year, but barring injuries 85-87 wins is a real possibility. That is a major accomplishment for this franchise. Mother Lode

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

(24-18, through May 15th)

Tom: As recently as 2006 the Cardinals won the World Series. That season, however, they won that title while winning only 83 regular season games. They then followed that up with a 78-win season in 2007 – a five game drop-off. So why would we assume that this hot start (24-18) should come as a surprise? Well, mostly because there is little "star power" on this team. The former MVP, Albert Pujols, continues to show why he is one of the best baseball players in the world. Aside from that – you have a makeshift outfield led by a former pitcher (Rick Ankiel), an "ace" with only 19 career wins (Adam Wainwright), and a closer with 3 career saves (Ryan Franklin). We all know what Pujols can do, but can the rest of the team continue to play at this pace? In the NL Central where the Cardinals are going to most likely have to hold off the Cubs and possibly those pesky Brewers - it will remain to be seen if they can keep up this pace with the roster they currently have in place. Are Ankiel, Troy Glaus, and Skip Schumaker enough protection for Pujols? Can the Cardinals contend with a wildly inconsistent Joel Piñeiro and an unproven Todd Wellemeyer at the back of their rotation? Will Izzy ever find his way back to closing out games in the 9th inning? So many questions and only one column with the answers!

Tom: It’s possible that I am still bitter over the Cardinals beating my Mets in the 2006 NLCS. Ok – it’s highly likely that I am. Plus, I cannot stand Mr. Braden Looper. My favorite memory of his time spent in New York was when The Post had the headline "Looper Scooper" on the front page after he had blown his second consecutive save. I’m not a fan! I’m not a fan either of the Cardinals’ rotation. Aside from Wainwright there are really are no viable healthy starters on this team. If you think you can rely on Kyle Lohse, Piñiero, and Looper than you are wrong. Add to that the fact that their closer – Jason Isringhausen – demoted himself and you are looking at a troubled team. Contrary to popular belief, Albert Pujols is only one man. The protection he has around him is solid – at best. I’ve noted here before that I am not a big Rick Ankiel fan and that lack of adoration extends to third baseman Troy Glaus. If I were a Cardinals fan I would enjoy the ride while it lasts, because come September we are going to be talking about "next year" for St. Louis. This year, at least they’ll have May. That counts for something, right? Fool’s Gold

Matt: The St. Louis Cardinals made wholesale changes to their team after their first losing season since 1999. The Cardinals started right at the top with the firing of General Manager Walt Jocketty – and continued by waving goodbye to 2006 World Series heroes Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen and David Eckstein. They replaced those three with Rick Ankiel, Troy Glaus, and (wait for it) Cesar Izturis. So what you have now is a team with no speed (13 SB in 42 games) and little power, especially after their "Big Three" of Albert Pujols (8 HR), Ryan Ludwick (8 HR), and Rick Ankiel (7 HR). Those three have combined to hit 23 of their team’s 33 HR in 2008. Their pitching is just awful – Tom covered that very well. Based on their current record, the Cardinals project to 93 wins on the year. Their Pythagorean Expected Win Total is 89. I don’t think the Cardinals will hit either number unless they get some major help. While OF Colby Rasmus is the "Future Star" for the Cardinals, with the emergence of Ryan Ludwick his debut has been delayed. Another minor leaguer getting some attention is RP Chris Perez (dynasty and keeper leagues – keep your eye on this guy). With Jason Isringhausen having his issues - and the present alternatives being the journeymen Ryan Franklin and Russ Springer - conventional wisdom suggests that Perez will get his chance sooner rather then later. But will this be enough help to propel the Cardinals to the playoffs? No – I think they will fall a bit short. Look for 84 wins and a 3rd place finish behind the Cubs and Brewers this season. Fool’s Gold

Oakland Athletics

Matt: In 2007, the Oakland A’s were 76-86. After the season Billy Beane decided it was in the team’s best interests to overhaul the roster, so Beane traded their best pitcher (Dan Haren) to the Arizona Diamondbacks and their top hitter (Nick Swisher) to the Chicago White Sox. At first glance those moves make sense. Bad season – let’s rebuild. However if you look closer at the A’s 2007 season they had 22 different players go on the DL, including Eric Chavez, Rich Harden, Huston Street, Milton Bradley, and Mike Piazza. Was it really necessary to blow things up? Consequently, entering this season the expectations for the A’s were fairly low. Most A’s fans would have been happy if Oakland had merely met last year’s win total. But now the A’s are in first place, and expectations have elevated. Is Billy Beane truly the genius he was made out to be in Moneyball – or is this team merely winning games with smoke and mirrors?

Matt: On Monday, the A’s were 23-16 and flying high. Then they went to Cleveland, and three days, 27 innings, and two total runs scored later the A’s were 23-19. Have the A’s booked their June swoon two weeks early, or is this just one of those bumps in the road every team encounters during a 162 game season and they’ll be back to their winning ways? I look at their offense and their best player is Emil Brown. That was a sentence I never thought I’d write. The team BA is .251 and they have hit only 22 home runs in 41 games. The only thing the A’s have going for them is their pitching. A 3.30 team ERA, and a team BAA of .238. But I don’t see them maintaining that production. The A’s are ready to put SP Joe Blanton and RP Huston Street on the trading block, which will put more pressure on the kids Dana Eveland and Greg Smith. The A’s current winning percentage is .548, their Expected Win Total is 98. That would mean they would need to go 75-46 the rest of the way. I’m going to politely disagree with that assessment, as the A’s pitching will not be able to maintain the numbers they have produced so far this year. I predict a maximum of 80 wins in 2008. Fool’s Gold

Tom: Long gone are the days of the Bash Brothers. Matt, those were the days... Now we are in the Oakland A’s Moneyball era. You know – the days of OPS and OBP. The times when GM Billy Beane makes comments like, "I can win with a team full of Scott Hattebergs." Would I like to watch nine Scott Hettebergs on the field at once? Yes – at least once. I think that Billy Beane has made some fantastic moves over the years. The move to break up the "Big Three" (Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, and Tim Hudson was brilliant. Even taking a flyer on veterans like Mike Piazza and Frank Thomas has paid off to a lesser extent. Don’t forget that he also traded Mulder for Dan Haren - then three years later traded Haren for several promising young players and two big leaguers in Greg Smith and Dave Eveland, who are both in the starting rotation. That is quite impressive – especially since Mulder has won only 6 games total the past two seasons. Beane has made some great moves – no doubt – but this team isn’t quite ready to make that next step. They’re a young team and they are taking steps in the right direction, but I look for them to hover around .500 this year and make much more of a splash come 2009. For now, I just see Fool’s Gold.

Florida Marlins

Matt: The Marlins’ record in 2007 was 71-91. Like the Oakland A’s, the Marlins traded away their (arguably) best pitcher (Dontrelle Willis) and their best hitter (Miguel Cabrera). This was new territory for the Marlins, as they normally only hold fire sales after a World Series Championship. Nevertheless, Willis and Cabrera were shipped to Detroit for OF Cameron Maybin, SP Andrew Miller and four other minor league players. While the Marlins have one superstar in SS Hanley Ramirez and several other players with decent abilities - Dan Uggla, Jeremy Hermida, Mike Jacobs among others – the roster is largely unproven at the major league level. A 90-loss season seemed inevitable. But somehow someway the Marlins have played winning baseball in 2008 through the first quarter of the season. Will the young Marlins continue to reel in victories, or will they flounder the rest of the season?

Matt: Over the past four seasons the team that has won the NL East has averaged about 93 wins. Over the same four seasons the Marlins have won 83, 83, 78, and 71 games. Folks, that’s moving in the wrong direction. While I like the young talent the Marlins currently have – including Mike Jacobs, Scott Olsen and Jeremy Hermida - they need to acquire more talent before I’m willing to even suggest that the Marlins will improve by 20+ games and be a contender again. While the Marlins are on pace to win 93 games, and Pythagorean has their Expected Win Total at 85, once again I have to disagree with that optimism. Like my golf game, they won’t break 80 (and it only takes me nine holes to do that!) this season. However those of you in keeper and dynasty leagues – if they are still available – look long and hard at the aforementioned Cameron Maybin and RHP Gaby Hernandez. These guys have future star written all over them. While hope springs eternal, this edition of the Marlins springs Fool’s Gold.

Tom: This is a young team in a tough division. There are legitimately three to four teams – depending on who you ask – who can win the NL East. Three of the teams (Mets, Phillies, and Braves) have what we in the industry like to call a "veteran presence". That means they have players who have been through a 162 game season and led their teams to the postseason. Currently the Marlins have only one positional player with postseason experience – Luis Gonzalez - and we all know that Gonzo’s better days are behind him. I have to say though, that I am one of those people who applauded the Cabrera and Willis trade. I happen to think that Maybin and Miller are going to turn into outstanding ballplayers. It will take some time, but it could pay off much like it did when the Marlins traded Josh Beckett for Hanley Ramirez. They have to eventually hold on to these young players, right? I think the Marlins will continue to play with grit and show up everyday and give it their all for Manager Fredi Gonzalez. I just think that it might not be enough to continue to fight for a playoff spot in the very talented NL East division. Maybe next year guys... Fool’s Gold