Mice and men. That’s frequently used shorthand in my house, in reference to the 18th century poet Robert Burns’s line about how the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry. But we’ve all had it happen to us, probably often—some unforeseen event dashing our plans. Whether it's "mechanical malfunction", an 80 degree day in February, a sudden death/illness in the family, or your best bud and a lesbian falling in love (Yes, I just referenced a Kevin Smith movie. The fact that I referenced Robert Burns and Kevin Smith in the same paragraph says a lot about me), things do not always go as planned. And it can apply to fantasy leagues as well. As owners, we have all these hopes and plans, and then before you know it your second best player needs season-ending surgery, your first pick has underperformed, your ace pitcher is not getting any run support, and the hot rookie you drafted is playing games against Toledo and Syracuse instead of Cleveland and New York. If you're in a redraft league, you're up the proverbial creek. But behold, the beauty of the keeper league! You can be in 10th place and still play to win (albeit for next year of course). That's what this column is about--Keeper tips and strategies. As I thought about what advice I would give for this inaugural column, I kept smacking into the same issue. For every owner that thanks me for my recommendations, there will be another owner saying, "Thanks for nothing, Nostradamus. That guy's been gone in my dynasty league for three years already!" while another would be saying, "Even if that guy gets 500 ABs, I've got three guys better than him already!" It is because no two keeper leagues are the same. Some are draft based; some are auction based. In some you can keep a guy forever, in others just a year, and most fall somewhere in between the two. In some you can draft minor league players, in others you can't until they're called up. Considering in all the other league variables (monoleague vs. MLB, number of teams, categories used, etc.), I realized that making any suggestions for whom to watch in keeper league would satisfy just a small number of people. And when you consider the excellent coverage that Jason Revalia does here for minor league prospects, what can I possibly bring to the table? So I thought. And I thought some more. And then I checked the pantry for the greatest cookie of all time—Oreos. And then went to pay some bills. And that’s when it hit me -- you don’t have to know who John Keynes is to realize that sometimes, it is just simple economics. Knowing the stud minor leaguers helps you on the supply side, and to ignore that is to ignore half the equation. But the real key to helping your keeper team is familiarizing yourself with the demand side--where will the openings be? Ryan Braun had excellent minor league numbers and smacked the cover off the ball in Spring Training last season. However, knowing the fact that Braun was only blocked by the light-hitting and heavily traveled Craig Counsell, I recommended him to all who were floundering, and later they were quite grateful. So, let's look at some promising situations for keeper leagues... San Diego Padres Closer:
Trevor Hoffman could blow as many saves as Eric Gagne, and he's still not going to lose his job. He's the face of the franchise, and Kevin Towers is not going to cut in line ahead of a fan favorite. But, how many years do you think the 41 year old has left? His numbers have been on a consistent decline the past several years, and you can't really expect him to get any better. His K rate has dropped each of the last three years, down to a K/9 of less than seven, which is not exactly premier closer territory. The Padres are in rebuilding mode. Do you think Hoffman will stick around on a rebuilding team? No way. So, if you can, go stash Heath Bell. He has value as a middle reliever, as his 2.03 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and 100+ Ks in less than 94 innings in 2007 can attest to. But even if you don't like middle relievers, at least monitor this situation closely. New York Yankee Firstbaseman
Here are your current options: A) The 29 year old second year player who managed a whopping .256 last year, which of course dwarfs his current average of .160, or B) the gold lame thong-wearing 38-year-old with a respectable three year 28 HR average but .255 average? Without even considering anything in Senator Mitchell's scrapbook, I'm going with Option C--whomever else the Yankees sign or call up for a cup of coffee. This team is getting old fast. As the Yankees move into a new stadium next year, expect someone else to move into the 1b position as well. While we know past performance does not guarantee future results, the two previous regular Yankee first baseman--Tino Martinez and Don Mattingly--were pretty good. Seattle Mariners Outfield:
The Mariners best outfielder is not exactly a Ruthian fellow, but he's a base hitting and stealing stud. Still, let’s remember that Ichiro Suzuki is nearly 35 years old and won't be getting any faster. If Seattle can unload the Ancient Mariner that is Jamie Moyer, then Ichiro's days in Seattle may be numbered as well. But let’s assume he stays--who else will be playing alongside him? Raul Ibanez is one. Ibanez is probably one of the most reliable players to hit .280 and around 20 HRs. Not sexy, but reliable. Ibanez is no spring chicken either, as he just had his 36th birthday. Besides an unnamed outfielder who saw his hat size increase greatly, how many other 37 year old outfielders do you know that you can excited about? Meanwhile, Seattle traded their best outfield prospect in Adam Jones. The other two options right now are Wladmir Balentien and Jeremy Reed. Reed is an enigma who, despite strong minor league numbers (his worst OPS in the minors was .777, and most years he had an OPS much closer to .900), just has not been able to do it at the major league level. Balentien has shown amazing power potential, one that would not even be dulled by Safeco's expansive dimensions. However, he also has shown a proclivity towards striking out. Of course the DH slot is not exactly manned by a young stud in his prime either. The last time 34-year-old Jose Vidro hit more than 20 HRs, it was for the Expos, and Bill Clinton was president. I think it is safe to say that you don’t have to put your ear to the door to hear opportunity knocking in the Seattle outfield. San Francisco Shortstop:
15 HRs and a .239 average. That's what a 41-year old Cal Ripken did in his final year. Omar Vizquel, age 41, is not quite the Hall-of-Famer that the Ironman was, yet the Giants continue to trot him out there (notice I said trot and not run!). How much longer can a team that obviously needs to rebuild subject us to Vizquel and his .187 BA with zero homers? I know picking on the Giants is easy and will upset our own Matthew Greber, but with so many holes, it would be negligent to avoid talking about the Giants. The hole at SS might be the most obvious one. Is there a less valuable player in a keeper league than Omar Vizquel? At least Mike Piazza won’t hurt your average. So, what’s the story with Vizquel? Not much to talk about. If you play in a deep NL-only league and like cheap speed, take a long look at Emmanuel Burriss. He stole 68 bases in a little over 500 combined ABs in the minors last year. He has five SBs already this year in only 66 ABs. So, it would be reasonable to expect 25+ steals if he can get the ABs. Of course, you can't steal first base--he hit only .200 in April, but has raised his average to a modest .257. However, Burriss or someone else in the San Francisco farm system will only get the opportunity once Vizquel and his knees wobble off into the sunset. But the shadow of the Bay Bridge does seem to be getting longer… Next Week: 2008 MLB Draft Keeper Analysis Mark Strausberg will tell you that his favorite keeper of all time is Tony Meola. Whether you understand that or not, want keeper advice, or want to tell Mark to “keep” his thoughts himself, email him at
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