Matt: Tom, I’m pretty sure Homer Bailey’s mom thought it was pretty important. But you are right about Bailey, his performance Thursday night was nothing to get too excited about if you are a fantasy owner or a Reds fan. You are also right about drafts - they are exciting to watch. So many questions will be answered. Who will “your team” pick? Will he turn into an all-star, or will he be a career minor leaguer? Drafts are even more exciting when there is intrigue. Unfortunately teams are not allowed to trade draft picks like in the NFL & NBA – so the intrigue has to come from those players who fall down the draft charts. Last year the Tampa Bay Rays surprised no one by taking LHP David Price out of Vanderbilt. However, the biggest dropper in the 2007 draft was RHP Rick Porcello. Widely considered to be the top high school pitcher in the draft, and the second best player in the draft – Porcello slid all the way to the 27th pick, and the Detroit Tigers grabbed him. Why did he slide in the draft? Sign-ability. Porcello’s agent is Scott Boras – and Boras has a reputation for driving a hard bargain. This year the Rays had the first pick again and took Tim Beckham a high school shortstop out of Griffin, GA. Beckham was rated by Rivals.com as the number one high school player in the country. Hey Tom – how about former Met Mike Piazza? He was a 62nd round pick of the Los Angeles Dodgers back in 1988. Maybe Joe Torre’s godson is available…

CAROLS GONZALEZ, OF, OAK

All of this talk about the Draft and the first player to be profiled wasn’t even drafted! No, he was signed as a free agent out of Venezuela at the age of 16. The Arizona Diamondbacks signed him and hoped that he’d turn into a five-tool All-Star outfielder for their squad. He didn’t do that – but what he did turn into was Dan Haren. Whoa! How did he do that? Well, he was the prime prospect in the Diamondbacks sending Gonzalez, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, and others to the Oakland A’s for Dan Haren. He has some pretty good company there in Oakland now. In 2007 Gonzalez was named the 18th highest rated prospect by the fine fellas over at Baseball America. This season – at 22 years of age – Gonzalez debuted against the Texas Rangers going 2 for 3 with 2 doubles and an RBI. Since then he’s slowed down quit a bit hovering just over the Mendoza Line and going hitless in his last 8 AB. But, as we all know, he is still very young and he still has to get accustomed to being in the Big Leagues. The question is, should you pick him up and stash him now or wait until he starts showing signs that he’s ready to play with the big boys?

That’s why you are reading Mother Lode or Fools Gold, right?

STATS: G: 6 AB: 23 R: 3 H: 5 HR: 0 RBI: 5 BB: 0 SB: 0 AVG: .217
Through June 5th, 2008

Tom: Here’s what we know about Gonzalez – he’s a big, athletic guy who has shown some pop in the Minor Leagues. We also know he bats left-handed and throws left-handed. So after collecting his first five big league hits – all doubles – all we can do now is project. The good news is that Gonzalez has the talent to succeed. Also, he’s playing on a team that has four full-time spots to give out (three outfield positions and one DH) and only four viable candidates – Gonzalez, Emil Brown, Jack Cust, and Travis Buck. So at the moment - as long as Gonzalez does not look overmatched at the plate - he has a position ready and waiting for him. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he is only 22 years old and the Oakland A’s are still very much in the thick of things in both the Divisional race and the Wild Card. It is very possible that Billy Beane will be looking for a veteran bat to put in the lineup come July – especially if Gonzalez is still struggling. It’s possible, but not likely. I think Gonzalez is going to have a few bad stretches – as most rookies do – but I also think he’s going to be the most popular waiver pickup of the coming weeks. I picked him up in one league where he was available and I intend on stashing him until he starts catching his stride. I suggest you do the same thing if you have the room. This guy is going to be a big fantasy player sooner than later. Mother Lode

Matt: Gonzalez is a talented player, with an absolutely fantastic arm. However that talent hasn’t translated into big numbers in the minors. Through the 2007 season Gonzalez had 1800 AB in the minors he only had 58 home runs. Assuming 600 AB per season, that works out to about 20 HR per season. While his career average in the minors is about .300, he also struck out 311 times while walking only 123 times. Those numbers could signal big problems at the plate for Gonzalez in the major leagues as he tries to adjust to big league pitching. While he could have some competition in the outfield if Billy Beane were to acquire another outfield bat, remember that Cust is notoriously streaky and Buck hasn’t exactly impressed anyone this season. My opinion is that Gonzalez should remain a starter barring a complete collapse. With about 120 games left in the regular season, look for Gonzalez to give you 12 HR, 60 RBI and hit .260. While those numbers are decent, they aren’t overwhelming. If you are in a deep league, he’s worth a roster spot, but I wouldn’t want to have to rely on starting him regularly. Unless you are in a dynasty-league, in 2008 Gonzalez is Fool’s Gold.

JAY BRUCE, OF, CIN

Bruce was the Reds’ first-round pick of the 2005 draft and 12th overall pick. Widely considered to be a five-tool player, Bruce has displayed a great throwing arm, a quick bat, and the ability to hit for power. The only knocks on his game coming into this season were average range in center field and strike-zone recognition. With Triple-A Louisville Bruce struck out 45 times in 184 AB – while walking only 12 times – so he still needs some work there. As for his range, look for Bruce to end up in right field once the Reds rid themselves of Adam Dunn or Ken Griffey Jr. At Triple-A Louisville this season, Bruce hit .364 with 10 home runs, 37 RBI and eight stolen bases in 184 AB. Those lofty numbers earned him a promotion to the Big Leagues, where he debuted as a Cincinnati Red on May 27th, going 3 for 3. So what is the long-term outlook for Bruce? Will he fulfill the promise that goes with a first-round selection, or will he be a flash-in-the-pan who piques our interest for a month before fading into obscurity? Let’s check in with our resident experts Matt and Tom to get their take.

STATS: G: 10 AB: 37 R: 12 H: 16 HR: 3 RBI: 7 BB: 7 SB: 2 AVG: .432
Through June 5th, 2008

Matt: The Reds took their time, but they finally did call up Bruce from Triple-A Louisville and Bruce responded in a big way – going 3 for 3 with two RBI in his debut. Bruce will be a fixture in the Reds outfield for years to come, and there are plenty of good reasons why. Strong arm, hits for power, hits for average, and speed. In 2007, Bruce played at three different levels in the minors, hitting .319 while accumulating 80 extra base hits. Make no mistake about it, this guy is the complete package. Will he continue to hit .400? Obviously that would be quite a feat. But what you can expect is a player who should hit 30 home runs a year, with that number creeping closer to 40 in a few years as he becomes a better hitter. Remember, this guy was considered to be the best hitter in the 2005 draft, outclassing Justin Upton and Cameron Maybin. For the rest of the season look for 18 HR, a .290 average, 60 RBI and 12 SB. If you have him, pat yourself on the back. If you are trying to trade for him, expect to give up an arm, a leg and your firstborn. Bruce is the Mother Lode.

Tom: Here is a guy who has become one of the biggest stories of the first two months of the season. Jay Bruce is here, people. He is here to stay. But, is he really here? His early numbers have been phenomenal. There’s no doubt about that. But, where the doubt lies in my mind is why people are calling this 21-year old one of the ten best players in the game at the moment. I read an article on Yahoo that listed the most recent one-for-one trades involving Jay Bruce and the names may or may not surprise you – Hanley Ramirez, Jonathan Papelbon, and Cole Hamels. I would not give up any of those players for Bruce. I don’t care if he is going to be this year’s Ryan Braun. I think his rookie ceiling is projected too high for his worth. If you have him – great! If you don’t have him, don’t bother trading for him since you are most likely going to have to pay a King’s Ransom for him. I see him as a star in this league and project him to probably win the Rookie of the Year in the NL, but I think we all just need to take a breath and pat yourself on the back if you drafted or picked up Bruce; and don’t break the bank if you weren’t lucky enough to grab him. As a player he’s the Mother Lode, but if you’re looking to swing a trade for Bruce you’re likely to end up with Fool’s Gold.

GARRETT OLSON, P, BAL

Olson is a lefthander who features a sinking fastball that tops out in the low 90’s, an excellent power curveball, and is working on perfecting his changeup. With Olson’s call-up to the majors, it looks like he has officially passed Hayden Penn as the Orioles top pitching prospect. Olson split time between Triple-A Norfolk and Baltimore in 2007, finishing the season with Baltimore. As an Oriole - Olson appeared (and started) in seven games – going 1-3 with a 7.79 ERA giving up 28 runs, 28 walks in 32.1 innings while striking out 28. Clearly not being ready for major league hitting, the Orioles had him start 2008 at Triple-A Norfolk. In five starts, Olson had a 1.85 ERA and 25 K in 24.1 innings – which earned him a call-up to Baltimore. Since making his 2008 debut on April 29th, Olson has made seven starts, going 5-1 with a 4.03 ERA with 31 K and 15 walks in 38 innings. With the Orioles fading quickly in the AL East, it’s looking like they are gravitating towards a youth movement which should mean that barring injury, Olson is in the rotation to stay. But what will he do in 2008? Will he continue to have good control and avoid walking batters like he did in 2007 – or will he improve and have a breakout season for the Orioles? Let’s check back in with Matt and Tom and see what the future holds for Mr. Olson.

STATS: G: 8 IP: 44.1 W: 5 K: 32 BB: 16 WHIP: 1.28 ERA: 3.86
Through June 5th, 2008

Matt: Olson is a successful pitcher when he attacks hitters. In his young major league career he has pitched well when he has attacked hitters and gotten early strikes. However, when he has gotten cute and tried to ‘paint the black’ he has struggled. While he has decent command of his pitches - Olson throws three pitches (fastball, fast curveball, slow curveball) – he doesn’t throw any of those pitches well enough to make one his ‘out pitch’. One thing to consider is that lefties do tend to develop later then righties, and Olson is only 24, so there is definitely time and room for improvement. I would expect to see his strikeout rate go down as he starts to pitch more and I would also look for a mediocre career for Olson. In 2008, look for Olson to max out at around 10 wins total, with a final ERA around 4.50 and a WHIP around 1.50. Olson should remain in the Orioles’ rotation in 2008, but if he doesn’t improve, I could see him ending up as the Orioles’ lefty out of the bullpen. Olson is not quite ready for prime time and he’s not quite ready for your fantasy team. Keep Olson on the waiver wire as he’s Fool’s Gold

Tom: I think Olson is an interesting guy. He seemed to have had a good – but not great – Minor League career and never had that buzz that a guy like Hayden Penn had. But Olson pitched well enough in the Minors to crack the Orioles’ top ten in Baseball America’s team prospect list and now has found himself in the rotation for the struggling O’s. He pitches a little like Mike Mussina, but I don’t think he has a ceiling as high as Mussina. He could eventually slot as a middle of the rotation kind of guy. One thing to remember is that barring injury it looks like you can slot Olson in every five days for the remainder of the season. That’s good news! To me, though, he is nothing more than a number three or four starter – which doesn’t bode well in fantasy, especially when we’re talking about a number three or four starter for a struggling team. Outside of Jeremy Guthrie, George Sherrill and, maybe, Daniel Cabrera, I wouldn’t touch any other pitcher on the O’s staff. And I’m being generous with the first three guys. I just don’t think Olson offers you enough in the any one category to warrant a waiver pickup. His WHIP, ERA, K’s, W’s – are all average. I wouldn’t consider him much of an option. Fool’s Gold

CLAYTON KERSHAW, SP, LA DODGERS

Clayton Kershaw is an example of a guy with a lot of talent who slipped a little in the draft due to “sign-ability.” Many baseball folks are not too pleased with the “rich getting richer” approach of the MLB Draft – where wealthier teams are able to sign players above the suggested “slotting” price, causing many of the top prospects to fall to those teams willing to meet their asking price – although the Dodgers won’t complain. They were able to draft the 2006 High School Pitcher of the Year with the 7th pick of the 2007 Draft. Kershaw breezed through the Minor Leagues and entered the 2008 Season as the Dodgers top prospect (Baseball America). Many people projected that Kershaw would eventually make is to the Majors this season, but they weren’t quite sure just how soon. Then – on May 25th, 2008 – Kershaw made his Major League debut against the St. Louis Cardinals. He showed a lot of ability – striking out 7 batters in 6 innings. However, he followed that up with a “dud” against the New York Mets. Which Clayton Kershaw are we going to see the rest of the year? Let’s have Tom and Matt discuss...

2008 Stats: G: 3 IP: 14.2 W: 0 K: 14 BB: 9 WHIP: 1.64 ERA: 4.91
Through June 5th, 2008

Tom: There was a huge “buzz” around this guy coming into the season. And when someone in my league didn’t use their number one waiver priority on Kershaw once he was made available, all hell broke loose! How could you not pick up Kershaw off of waivers? Well, as he’s showing it takes quite some time for certain pitchers to develop into the Major League talent that they will eventually become. Just look at the Yankees as an example. Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy have been awful this year. Joba Chamberlain – “the second coming” – even struggled in his first Big League start. So these kinds of numbers are to be expected from Kershaw. The question is – how long before he catches his stride and is comfortable in the Major Leagues? Here’s an answer you might not like – Next Year! You can even look on Kershaw's own team for a perfect example of this. Look at Chad Billingsley. Billingsley started in 16 games in 2006 and had only one more strike out than batter’s walked (59 to 58). That season he also had 92 hits and 58 walks in only 90 innings pitched. Not quite the numbers you’d expect from this highly touted prospect. But, as we saw in 2007, Billingsley turned things around. I really think that Kershaw can be a dominant pitcher in this league. I just wouldn’t get too excited about his 2008 campaign. He’ll have some really good outings this year, but I think the growing pains will get the best of him this season. Fool’s Gold

Matt: Tom, that buzz you are hearing is the sound of Kershaw’s 94 mph fastball buzzing you high and tight. How could you drop a Fool’s Gold tag on Kershaw? Kershaw is the youngest pitcher to debut in the majors since Felix Hernandez in 2005. This kid is still learning how to pitch. Just wait until his command on his fastball improves and his curveball tightens. What will Sean Casey do then? In one of my leagues, I had the number one waiver priority, and passed on Chris Perez (although I desperately needed saves) and Bartolo Colon to wait for Kershaw. While I will freely admit that he has been underwhelming in his first three starts, based on his minor league stats – 195.2 IP, 2.63 ERA, 145 H, 257 K, 83 BB – all of the peripherals are there to project future success for Kershaw. Like most rookies, Kershaw will have his ups and downs, but this kid has the ability to throw a no-hitter. No – he probably won’t throw one this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he flirts with one at some point this season. Look for Kershaw to finish with an ERA around 3.75 while averaging close to a strikeout an inning. If you’re looking for the Mother Lode, you’ll find him pitching in Chavez Ravine this year.

Don’t make any rookie mistakes. If you have a question about your fantasy baseball team, ask your good friends Matt and Tom for advice. They are here to help. E-mail Matt at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it or Tom at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

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