ETA 2009
Pedro Alvarez, 3B Pirates
I'll assume that the Pirates and Scott Boras can agree on terms. Alvarez's path is “blocked” by Jose Baustista and Neil Walker. You know Bautista and how Mike Schmidt-like he is. Walker was supposed to be a franchise player but is currently hitting .220 with a .682 OPS. Alvarez should be manning the “haut” (ever hear a Pittsburgher say the word hot?) corner in Pittsburgh very soon.

Brian Matusz, LHP Orioles
Most project him to be a #2 or #3 starter. But he's got good stuff, left-handers have an easier time moving up, and most of the talent in Baltimore's system is already on the big league team. I’d expect to see Jake Arrieta and Matusz headlining the Orioles pitching staff for years.

Buster Posey, C Giants
If Pablo Sandoval gets moved to first base, there's not a lot of talent at catcher anywhere in the San Francisco system. And unlike other top recently drafted college catchers (say, Jeff Clement), Posey is pretty good defensively. Of anyone drafted, I like Posey to have the greatest fantasy impact in 2009. Of course I really liked the last highly touted Giant catcher (who became a bust), Steve Decker. But that was before I became the wise sage that I am now of course.

Justin Smoack, 1B Rangers
At 11th overall, Smoak was the steal of the first round. Multiple third baseman as well as quality prospect Chris Davis have been moved over to first, presenting potential barriers to his debut. However, when you hit .389/.509/.758 (AVG, OBP, and SLG) in the tough SEC, it’s not a question of if your opportunity will arrive, but when.

Joshua Fields, RHP Mariners
He was drafted last year but went unsigned because he was "you-know-who’s" client. He had one of the best statistical seasons of any college reliever--2.27 ERA, 56 strikeouts, and 16 saves in 31.2 innings -- stats which were tops in the NCAA and also in the school's history. There's just not enough pitching talent in the Seattle system to keep him from reaching the majors as a reliever next year.

Daniel Schlereth, LHP Diamondbacks
I like everything I've read about Sclereth. He's the son of former NFL player Mark Schlereth. That alone would be a reason for me to speculate on him. But the D-backs have very little left-handed talent in their current bullpen. And we know the D-backs are not afraid to bring up talent. He's been clocked at 97 MPH and his slider is just dominant. I loved Max Scherzer, and I like Schlereth too.
 

ETA 2010
Yonder Alonso, 1B Reds
Sometimes its just easy math: (Incredible talent) minus (Joey Votto manning the position and not likely to lose it) equals (call-up in 2010).

Gordon Beckham, SS White Sox
Beckham, a Golden Spikes finalist, who was batting .397 going into super regional play, should be a good one. But the White Sox have too many other options up the middle to rush Beckham to the majors. When Orlando Cabrera retires, expect Beckham to get the call.

Aaron Crow, SP Nationals
Quick story: I had more than enough pre-schooler TV for one morning when I told my daughter it was time to turn off the TV and go clean her room. But she is quite the crafty one. She looked up at me with puppy dog eyes and said, "Watch baseball with you?" How could I refuse? Of course there were no major league games on at that moment, but they were showing a college game and Crow was pitching. I could easily see why Crow is considered one of the top right handed starters in the college game this year. He mowed down hitter after hitter after hitter. I wasn’t the least bit surprised to discover he struck out 127 batters in just over 107 innings this year. A spot in the rotation in 2009 would not shock me at all. But I always get too excited about college guys whom I've seen play, so I'm tempering my expectations.

Jemile Weeks, 2B Athletics
Jemile does not have the power potential of major league brother Rickie Weeks, but he is very fast and was probably one of the best athletes selected. Speed and defensive talent are not exactly hallmarks of the Billy Beane regime. I don't see Beane itching to get him on the major league roster soon.

Brett Wallace, 3B/1B Cardinals
He's a beefy 250 pounds, but he has back-to-back Pac-10 triple crowns.  However, college triple crowns won't unseat Phat Albert, and 3B Steven Freese is swinging a decent bat at AAA, too. It's most reasonable to expect a late season appearance in 2010.

David Cooper 1B, Blue Jays
Cooper can mash, but questionable defense skills (even at 1B) may limit him to DH and thus limit his chances...period.

Ike Davis 1B/OF, Mets
Ike's father Ron played for the Yankees, so he has an idea what it's like to play in the majors. He's got the power, but it might take some time to develop the necessary contact rate to succeed.

Reese Havens, SS Mets
Reasons to like him:
1) Above average middle infield power
2) Strong plate discipline
3) What the scouts refer to as "terrific sense for the game".
Even with all that, it took Jose Reyes three years to get to the majors. There's talk of Havens being converted to a 2B. Bottom line? 2009 is too early. 2011 is too late.

Christian Freidrich, RHP Rockies
The Rockies tend to push their pitchers along quickly (Hmm, I wonder why that is?). I expect to see Freidrich follow a similar path to Greg Reynolds.

Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B Indians
The big question mark for Chisenhall is maturity, as a burglary charge got him kicked off the Gamecocks team. But with 3B a little thin in the Indians' system, Cleveland was willing to take a chance on him. I would not be surprised to see Chisenhall manning 3B for the Tribe sometime in 2009. I'd also not be surprised to see it take more than three years. My ETA of 2010 is splitting the difference.

ETA 2011
Tim Beckham, SS Rays
The Rays have plenty of young players and plenty of talent, especially in the minor leagues.  It takes most high school picks a few years to get to the majors. He has the talent--his skill set most closely matches B. J. Upton. However, the problem I see is that Upton took four years to see the majors. It might not take Beckham that long, but I see the Rays keeping him in the minors for a little while.

Eric Hosmer, 1B Royals
Hosmer is another high school bat with amazing talent. He should be worth the wait.

Jason Castro, C Astros
Despite legitimate power, Castro was probably one of the bigger reaches in the first round. He should, however, rise quickly through the minors much like J. R. Towles did through the Astros' system. Of course, the fact that Towles is so young and already playing for the ‘Stros could be an issue.

Andrew Cashner, RHP Cubs
I waffled back and forth (probably my favorite redundant phrase) on whether to put Cashner in 2010 or 2011. A middle relief stint in 2010 or even earlier wouldn't surprise me, but there are too many young arms with potential throughout the Cubs system. I'll go conservative and say 2011.

Ryan Perry, RHP Tigers
Perry has been clocked at 100 MPH. Of course there's some concern with how straight it is, but velocity like that doesn't stick around in the minors very long. The problem is that Rick Porcello will probably get the call first.

Allan Dykstra, 1B Padres
I'm sure the Padres would love to see this local kid succeed. Unfortunately, his questionable defense and the number of young players blocking his path means it will be a few years before his chance to shine in the bigs.

Carlos Gutierrez, RHP Twins
If his slider improves, Gutierrez could claim a spot in the bullpen toward the end of the year in 2011. But if you're going to snag guys who are three years away, there's much better upside elsewhere.

ETA 2012 and beyond...

Kyle Shipworth, C Marlins
Lots of people like him to make it. I do too, but there are too many questions to project anything sooner than 2012.

Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP Twins
Hicks has high upside, but he’s very raw.

Ethan Martin, RHP Dodgers
Martin was a 3B before this spring. He has Ace potential, but he needs some polishing.

Brett Lawrie, C/3B Brewers
Dynasty players take note. If you’re looking for a guy to make an impact in the 20-teens (anyone have a better name for that decade?), Lawrie is the one. He’s shown what he can do at the aluminum bat level, but Brett has impressed with the splintered bat as well. He competed against, or should we say dominated, the Major League Baseball Dominican Summer league teams while on tour with the Team Canada junior team. He hit .486 (17-for-35) with 8 HR and 24 RBI, including 5 HR in one day. I won’t downgrade him for not being a college player, but he’s got a distant ETA because the Brewers have a ton of infielders locked up to long-term deals at the major league level, including Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder.  There's also still a ton of talent at the minor league level too, like Matt Gamel, Matt LaPorta, and stud catcher Angel Salome.  Gamel was recently featured by our Minor League stats guy, Jason Revelia.

Antony Hewitt, SS Phillies
Hewitt is very raw. He also will have to be bought out of a Vanderbilt commitment.

Gerritt Cole, RHP Yankees
Cole could have the best pure arm in the draft, reportedly hitting 100 MPH late this spring and consistently hitting 93-95 on the radar gun. Scott Boras is his agent, he already committed to UCLA, and he there are questions about his mound composure/makeup--which says there are too many warning signs to expect immediate returns.

Casey Kelly, SS/RHP Red Sox
He probably had some of the wildest disparity on draft boards--as high as 7th and as low as 30th. Kelly also has a QB spot waiting for him at the University of Tennessee. I'll wait at least until he chooses which sport to play to decide if I want him on my fantasy baseball team. 

So there’s your first round analysis. I’d offer more, but I need to go beat up my Steve Decker voodoo doll…

Next Week: Why the Padres are making me an angry Father

Mark Strausberg will tell you that his favorite keeper of all time is Tony Meola. Whether you understand that or not, want keeper advice, or want to tell Mark to “keep” his thoughts himself, email him at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

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