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Written by Jonathan Phillips, RotoExperts.com Staff Writer   
Thursday, 26 June 2008
2008 Team Preview by RotoExperts.com Staff Writer Jonathan Phillips.

 

Chicago Bears

OVERVIEW
How do you hate a man named Lovie?  Well, in Chicago, there may not be hatred for him, but there are definitely some ambiguous feelings.  Part of the confusion was the decline the Bears made from being a Super Bowl team in 2006 to a sub-.500 ballclub in 2007.  Another part of the confusion is how to explain a defense plunging from fourth-best in the league to 28th overall in 2007.  And the other part came on draft day, when every Bears fan was praying for a quarterback, but received the gift of an offensive lineman.

Lovie Smith enters his fifth campaign facing an uphill battle.  Since his arrival, the Bears have posted two seasons of 10-plus wins combined with two seasons of sub- .500 records.  His team leadership will fall into the hands of Rex Grossman or Kyle Orton, neither of whom is dear and beloved to the Chicago faithful.  Ron Turner will have to be creative in his offensive design in order to build the confidence of his quarterbacks and find space for his sub-par running game.  Ball control and clock management are likely to be key strategies for an offense that ranked toward the bottom tier of the NFL.  Second year Defensive Coordinator Bob Babich deserves a little slack in engineering last year's underwhelming defense, as key injuries amongst the linebackers and secondary derailed this train early in the season.  The Bears still hibernate in one of the more competitive, yet weaker divisions in football.  Their defense will have to rebound in order to keep the Bears viable to make a run at .500.  The first four games of the season could very well determine their fate.  If the Bears post anything less than a 2-2 showing, their season could be in jeopardy from the get-go. 

 

PROJECTED DEPTH CHART
Players listed in order of fantasy relevance. Recommended round to draft in standard 10 to 12-team leagues with 16 rounds in parentheses.

Quarterback: Rex Grossman (8), Kyle Orton (12)

Running Back: Matt Forte (6), Adrian Peterson (12), Garrett Wolfe

Wide Receiver: Marty Booker (11), Brandon Lloyd (13), Devin Hester (8), Mark Bradley

Tight End: Greg Olsen (7), Desmond Clark

Kicker: Robbie Gould (16)

NOTABLE PLAYER MOVES

Additions: WR Marty Booker, WR Brandon Lloyd
Subtractions: RB Cedric Benson, WR Bernard Berrian, WR Muhsin Muhammad

Soldier Field

Soldier Field: Will we see Cedric Benson in the parking lot?
Photo Credit: larry_hauge

2008 ROOKIES TO WATCH

Round Two: Matt Forte, RB, Tulane
Round Three: Earl Bennett, WR, Vanderbilt

TOP POSITION BATTLES

Quarterback: Rex Grossman vs. Kyle Orton
Running Back: Matt Forte vs. Adrian Peterson

2008 SCHEDULE

Top matchups in bold

Sept. 7: @ Indianapolis
Sept. 14: @ Carolina
Sept. 21: Tampa Bay
Sept. 28: Philadelphia
Oct. 5: @ Detroit
Oct. 12: @ Atlanta
Oct. 19: Minnesota
Oct 26: BYE
Nov. 2: Detroit
Nov. 9: Tennessee
Nov. 16: @ Green Bay
Nov. 23: @ St. Louis
Nov. 30: @Minnesota
FANTASY PLAYOFF MATCHUPS
Dec. 7: Jacksonville
Dec. 11: New Orleans
Dec. 22: Green Bay
Dec 28: @ Houston

 

 

 

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ENGEL EYE ON: THE CHICAGO BEARS

I would not be surprised to see Greg Olsen rocket into fantasy stardom this year. Let's face it, there's a dearth of dependable guys at wide receiver, and I am not expecting consistent contributions from Devin Hester. Olsen may be the Bear's best pure pass-catcher in 2008. He can get downfield and will really challenge defenses with his natural abilities. The Chicago quarterbacks will have to look to him often, and Olsen could very well end up being one of the best fantasy options at tight end. That kind of success would translate into a gem who sits just outside the top five at the position.

2008 FANTASY POSITIONAL OUTLOOKS

Quarterback:
In the big picture, Rex Grossman has never been as bad as portrayed nor as good as expected.  In early 2006 when the team started the season 7-0, Chicago was calling him the patron saint of Grizzly-hood.  They were naming their kids after him and did everything short of asking the Queen of England to have him knighted.  Of course, in the sixth win of that improbable start, he attained a QB rating of 10.2, and Bears fans began to wonder. Rex was fairly average the rest of that year and took a brunt of the blame (wrongfully so) for the Bears' loss in the Super Bowl. But he wasn't that bad, playing nearly three quarters of flawless football.  In 2007, Grossman was benched after a 1-2 start and didn't see action again until Week 10.  Brian Griese took the reins and was semi-effective, posting a 2-3 record, while producing the best numbers among Bears quarterbacks last year.  That can't inspire Chi-town to have any more faith in either of the remaining options.  Grossman is not very mobile, and when hassled, he has a tendency to throw off his back foot.  He also has a tendency to overvalue his own arm.  That being said, Rex has been a victim of inopportune offensive line penalties, bad play-calling, and runners who fumble the ball away at key junctures of the game (twice in the first half of Super Bowl XLI).  Grossman is a streaky quarterback, and though he's the best downfield passer the Bears have, his decision-making in pressure situations can best be described as inconsistent.  Kyle Orton, who has an improbable starting record of 10-5 despite a career passer rating of 62.2, was told by the coaching staff that he enters this season on even ground with Grossman.  Thus, this is one of several key battles that will determine the course of the Bears’ season.  Orton's a short-range passer who often will dump the ball to his second and third options rather than force a ball downfield.  Kyle sports a pitiful career average of 5.2 yards per pass play.  Neither of the two have the ability to take over a game, and with the decreasing amount of weapons in their cache, look for this to be a season of more scrutiny for these two.  The third string spot will come down to a battle between free agent pick-ups Caleb Hanie and Nick Hill.  However, a surprise showing by either could displace Grossman or Orton, who will both be on a tight leash. For fantasy purposes, I can't really advocate chasing any of these guys during your draft, regardless which one wins the job coming out of camp.

Matt Forte
Matt Forte has the opportunity to shine as a rookie in 2008. Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Running Back:
The Bears’ second round pick, Matt Forte, has suddenly been thrust into the spotlight.  With another DUI offense, Cedric Benson was released in early June, a sign that the Bears are trying to send a message to players like Lance Briggs that they won't descend into the depths occupied by the Cincinnati Bengals. While many expect Forte to get the starting job now, don't be surprised to see the Bears find another vehicle in a free agent like Shaun Alexander, Travis Henry, or Kevin Jones.  According to a recent report in the Chicago Tribune, Jones not only spoke to Tommie Harris personally, but his agent was in touch with Chicago almost immediately after Benson was released.  Adrian Peterson sits behind Forte on the depth chart.  The "other" AP is known more for his third down pass-blocking and pass-catching abilities than for his speed.  Let's face some facts here...Turner must have been incredibly optimistic about his new toy for the Bears to flat out release Benson, but the situation is messy.  While Forte averaged 5.89 yards per carry in his senior year at Tulane and totaled over 2,000 yards rushing, he accomplished those feats in Conference USA.  He's a fast 4.46 runner in the 40-yard-dash, but he's not necessarily fleet of foot.  Forte also had knee ligament problems in the past.  Add all that up with his rookie status, and you are looking for value with this pick if you make it at all.  The other problem here is the Bears haven't even signed Forte yet, and with him now shoved into the spotlight as the presumed starter, Lovie may end up extending the checkbook farther than they would have planned just to get a second round pick into camp.  Peterson recently had an appendectomy, and although he should be able to work out with the team when camp opens in two weeks, it may slow him down a bit.  The line in front of this group is aging (see below), and with a lack of quality receivers not helping, the Chicago running game might have gone from a vitamin deficiency to pure anemia.  Proceed with caution, unless a clear cut, experienced starter is signed in the next few weeks.


Wide Receiver:
What does it tell you when the number three receiver on the Cowboys is rated higher on draft boards than your top two receivers?  Does it incite panic, maybe?  The team lost Bernard Berrian, their top receiving threat, to the rival Vikings, so Devin Hester will get a more active role as a wide receiver.  He continues to garner more interest as a potential sleeper than both Marty Booker and Brandon Lloyd, the Bears top two receivers.  Booker returns to the team where he has most flourished, after three years of mediocrity in Miami.  He turns 32 this year, and though he still has size, he's not your prototypical number one receiver.  His best season was six years ago, when Jim Miller and Chris Chandler delivered him the ball to the tune of 97 catches for 1,189 yards and six scores.  In 2007, Booker saw action as a possession receiver in 15 games, averaging 11.1 yards per catch and scoring once.  He returns to Chi-town to find another shining moment under the sun ... uh, I mean, wind.  Joining him is the ever-disappointing Lloyd, who has flashed incredible skills coupled with a shoddy work ethic.  Lloyd is entering the prime of his career at age 27 but has yet to show he can be even a solid fantasy option, much less a top-flight receiver.  The Washington faithful got two seasons of combined stats totaling 25 receptions, 379 yards, one broken collarbone, and zero touchdown celebrations, so Brandon finds himself on his third team in the last four years.  Mark Bradley has good size but no reliability from the health perspective, as last year was the first time he played 15 games in his four year career.  Special teams king Devin Hester will likely be a third or fourth receiver in the slot.  He has incredible speed and could play a bigger role in the offense, perhaps akin to Wes Welker of the Patriots.  While the Bears did grab wideout Earl Bennett in the third round, he likely won’t make a major impact on the offense this year.  Again, there is no bonafide fantasy star here, especially with the uncertainties at QB, RB, and (as covered below) the O-line.

Tight End:
Perhaps the biggest Bears victory of 2007 was riding the coattails of this underrated tandem.  In Green Bay in Week Five, Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen both caught touchdown passes, combining for seven receptions and 119 yards in a 27-20 win.  This is probably where the Bears actually pose their deepest and strongest threat.  Both Clark and Olsen are strong, are fast, and have soft hands.  Last year they combined for 74 catches, 936 yards, and six touchdowns.  Clark has been consistent for the last two years, amassing no less the 44 receptions and averaging five scores.  Olsen started his rookie season on the sidelines, missing the last pre-season game and the first few weeks of the season with a sprained knee.  He's expected to take on a bigger role this year, but he has a history of health issues.  Expect even greater things from Olsen if short-range gunner Orton wins the battle of the arms.  Should Grossman win out, Clark will benefit as one of his favorite targets downfield.  Regardless, both are probably the most consistent pass threats in the revamped receiving corps, and both are worth rostering in standard 12-team leagues as backup TEs with upside.

Kicker:
All kickers are a mixed bag, but Robbie Gould has been solid since taking over for Paul Edinger two years ago.  Last year, he ranked third in field goals made and sixth overall.  In 2006, Gould was the top kicker in the NFL.  As with most kickers, the best years go to the guys on teams who can't seem to regularly punch the ball into the end zone, assuming those same kickers are consistently accurate (insert Sebastian Janikowski joke here).  Well, Chicago was ranked 27th offensively in yards per game and 29th in third down efficiency during 2007.  Those numbers will work in Gould's favor, and he is a good late-in-the-game pick to fill out your kicking slot.

 

Defense/Special Teams:
Injuries strike indiscriminately and randomly, much like earthquakes.  Well for comparison, Bob Babich's rookie showing as defensive coordinator was hit by a 7.0 quake on the Richter Scale.  Considered the cornerstone of Bears football for the last few years, the defense was rocked last year by the losses of Lance Briggs, Nathan Vasher, Mike Brown, Dusty Dvoracek, and Charles Tillman, all for substantial amounts of time. Defensive tackle Tommie Harris, considered one of the most disruptive line players in the NFL, toughed it out through the season with a sprained knee, but struggled as the year wore on.  After posting seven sacks in the first half, he tallied only one more the rest of the way.  Adewale Ogunleye has registered double-digit sacks in two of his seven pro seasons (9+ sacks four times), and has a total of 55.5 sacks for his career.  Mark Anderson had a tremendous rookie campaign, but his sack total was more than halved last year.  There are rumblings that Anderson could lose out to Alex Brown, who led all Bears linemen with 41 tackles in 2007.  Anthony Adams is a bit undersized and needs to improve his block-shedding skills to compete at nose tackle with the perennially-injured Dvoracek.  Brian Urlacher will continue to anchor the middle of the defensive unit, as he once again led the team in tackles with 123 last season.  Urlacher also added five interceptions, five sacks, and a touchdown.  Since entering the league in 2000, Urlacher has tallied over 100 tackles annually, aside from his injury-shortened 2004.  Team leadership starts nowhere else than with him. Since his rookie season, Lance Briggs has been nearly as effective as Urlacher, racking up 100 tackles or more in all but his rookie season.  Briggs was franchised this year, and with good reason.  He's not only a tremendous run stopper and pass rusher, but he also sports tremendous range in coverage.  Hunter Hillenmeyer rounds out the linebacker group, offering long arms and good pursuit skills.  The secondary is fairly deep, having two of the best coverage corners in Tillman and Vasher, backed up by six-year veteran Ricky Manning, Jr. and Trumaine McBride.  Mike Brown is a solid free safety who is almost never healthy, having been on the I.R. to close out each of the past three years.  Perhaps the biggest question mark on the team is the strong safety spot, currently manned by Brandon McGowan.  McGowan played in 14 games last year, posting 68 tackles and two interceptions.  He'll be challenged for the spot by fourth-round selection out of LSU, Craig Steltz.

Chicago has fielded the best special teams unit in football for two years running, mostly because of Hester, a superstar return manHester posted consecutive record years for kick return TDs, finishing with six last season, surpassing his mark of five the previous year.  Hester is likely to be promoted to wide receiver, and that means this unit will not be as productive in the return game.  Rashied Davis and Danieal Manning are expected to vie for roles.

Offensive Line:
Age is a fickle thing, particularly in football.  Quarterbacks can play until they're nearly 40 and still be coveted.  Occasionally, you'll get a receiver who'll do that as well.  Rarely do the guys in the trenches get to play past 35 or 36.  Though the team has started to tweak this unit with the drafting of Vanderbilt stud Chris Williams, the average age of the rest of this line is just over 30 years old.  The group is experienced, but not stellar. John Tait goes back to right tackle, which is a position for which he is best suited.  Olin Kreutz is a former All-Pro, but if you witnessed the way Anthony McFarland manhandled him in the Super Bowl, you know why worries abound as to whether he's lost a step.  Rumor has it that 2007 fourth-round pick Josh Beekman is working as a possible backup center and could contend at left guard.  Williams is the front-runner to take Fred Miller's place, and he is rumored to be a better at pass blocking than run blocking.  The line gave up 18 more sacks last year than in '06, but keep in mind that Benson was no Thomas Jones in pass protection.  Also, this sub-par group had trouble producing for an offense that was 29th in third down efficiency and penalized the fifth-most in the NFL.

If love were a football, then Jonathan Phillips would be married with children.  Thus, he's lonely and would like nothing more than to discuss football with you when he's not writing Small Market Mania.  Feel free to email him at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it !

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