The best laid plans of mice and men go awry. But if you’re in a keeper league, you have to keep playing, even if your pitchers often hit the bull. There were two cultural events in the last week that were of great interest to me: The 20th anniversary of Bull Durham and the death of George Carlin.  | |
I could write for pages and pages about the two of them. I found it interesting that those two events were so close together, because something that always burns me up in relation to Bull Durham are the two "dirty words" (one is another word for rooster and the other is another word for a cat) that are always censored out of Crash's "What I believe in" monologue. Despite not being one of Carlin's "7 Dirty Words," those two "unmentionables" are always omitted from Crash's monologue when they play it on the radio and show it on network TV. I've even see publicity posters with the "whole" monologue printed, minus the two unprintables. The fact that Crash uses those words in the way he does is reflective of his character. But why should we care about what some screenwriter wrote? I guess keeping that "vulgar coupling" included would make it less commercially viable, and heaven forbid we not censor them out. It pisses me off, and something tells me it would piss Mr. Carlin off, too. Okay, rant over. Then there’s the memorable line they do keep in when they play it on network TV: “Hit the bull.” I love that line. And every time I’m at a ball park and see a pitcher miss the plate laterally by a good two feet, I can’t help but scream that phrase. It’s stupid, I know. But seeing Daniel Cabrera pitch as often as I have, it is amazing how many times I’ve said that. Actually, Mr. Cabrera and his teammates make a good topic for keeper league discussions. The Orioles have exceeded expectations. But let's be honest—they’re not going to make a playoff push. Much like your keeper team, they have a good nucleus but will be looking to be sellers at the trade deadline, not buyers. Are the pitchers worth an investment in the long term? Let’s look at all of them, from ace to back end starter. Jeremy Guthrie:
Guthrie is probably having one of the best seasons of any Oriole starter, but he is also the staff’s biggest victim of lack of run support. Guthrie’s numbers (3.64 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP) are better than last year’s breakout numbers and far better than his numbers were with Cleveland. But is he worth the long term investment? Guthrie has pretty good control. His last year in the minors he had a respectable 1.23 WHIP. The problem is that, until the Orioles can give him more offensive support, Guthrie just doesn’t strike out enough hitters to own him in a mixed keeper league. Of course, Crash will tell you that strikeouts are boring and less democratic, but Crash doesn’t manage my fantasy teams. Guthrie typically has a K/9 of about 6.00. Six strikeouts in a nine inning game might sound pretty good, except that Guthrie has never pitched a full game his entire major league career. His June average of 4.4 strikeouts per game is typical. Guthrie is good, just not the kind of pitcher typically worth keeping. Daniel Cabrera:
Daniel Cabrera is the Bobby Witt of this decade. For those of you too young to recall, during his prime years, Witt was always amongst the major league leaders in strikeouts. But he could also be found near the top of the leaderboard for walks as well. On Sept 1, 1990, Witt pitched 7 innings and gave up just 4 hits striking out 10. He also walked 10. When Cabrera did almost the same thing in early 2006 (3 hits, 10 strikeouts and 9 walks), I thought I had stepped into Doc Brown’s DeLorean. Witt struck out 221 batters that year. But because Cabrera has so many issues with his control, he rarely pitches late into games. Therefore, he’ll be hard pressed to ever reach 200, or even 175 Ks. Now that he has supposedly learned some control, Daniel is on pace for only 133 Ks. And 133 Ks would be fine, if it weren't for the 4.45 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Maybe Cabrera needs to ask Nuke LaLoosh how to breathe through his eyelids. In the meantime, you should pass. Brian Burres:
Burres was called up for Baltimore in 2006 and the pitching line in his first start showed his potential: 8.0 IP, 6 K, a 2.25 ERA, and a 0.88 WHIP. But the three previous years in the minors show Burres flaw: He’s maddeningly inconsistent. His minor league numbers in 2006 included solid ratios to the tune of a 3.76 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. But the previous year, he had a 4.21 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. However, the year before that he had a sparkling 2.85 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. While these are season totals, his game totals follow a similar pattern. Consider Burres' back-to-back games against the Yankees in late May. The first game, he pitched 7.2 innings, giving up six hits and walking NOBODY, while striking out six Yankees. The following outing he struck out NOBODY and gave up 8 ERs in less than four innings. That inconsistency is what’s going to lead to guys like Adam Loewen (if he and Hayden Penn can ever stay healthy), Chris Tillman (7-2 with a 2.67 ERA and 73 Ks in 70 IP at AA), Jake Arietta (striking out more than a batter per inning in single A), and the newly drafted Brian Matusz, along with the rest of the rising arms in Baltimore’s farm system, to get their shot. Garrett Olson:
Anything that travels that far oughta have a stewardess on it, right? Olson’s story is similar to that of many pitchers: He’s pretty good…unless he gives up the long ball. The good news is that his fly-ball percentage (FB%) is lower than last year. His average for three months of work last year was 48%. This year that number is down to 42%. However, be aware that his FB% for June is up to 46%. If Olson can find a way to keep the pitches from going out of the ballpark, he could be well worth the gamble, as he sports a four pitch repertoire. He did strike out 120 in 128 innings at AAA-Norfolk last year, with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. But given his trouble with the long ball, I need to see significant improvement of his current ERA (5.01) and WHIP (1.43) before I’m ready to invest heavily in Olson. Radhames Liz:
This is the one guy who excites me. He is still available in many deeper mixed keeper leagues. In his cup of coffee last year, Liz struck out 24 batters in 24.2 IP. Even at AAA-Norfolk, where he posted an unspectacular (but not bad) 4.05 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, he still struck out nearly a batter per inning. But it’s the season before, when he was at AA-Bowie, that shows Liz’s potential. He was 11-4 with a 3.22 ERA that season. But that’s not the exciting part. The exciting part is how he struck out 161 batters in only 137 IP! That’s a K/9 of over 10.5! Of course Liz still needs to work on his control. But I recently saw Liz pitch in person, and nothing he did led me to say, “Hit the bull!” Next Week: Why I like my Johnson better than your Wang. Mark Strausberg will tell you that his favorite keeper of all time is Tony Meola. Whether you understand that or not, want keeper advice, or want to tell Mark to “keep” his thoughts himself, email him at
This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
 |
Baseball 
Subscribe to this comment's feed