So many player moves to make, so little time. We all have circumstances that prevent us from managing our fantasy baseball team as much as we’d like, and that is why Tom and Matt pan for gold every week...so you don’t have to. Read on to see who are this week’s nuggets and pyrite.
Matt: It’s hard to believe that 2008 marks the 12th year of Interleague Play in Major League Baseball. The question still lingers: has Interleague Play been good for baseball or not? Has it created the rivalries that baseball intended when they first proposed Interleague play? Yankees vs. Mets, Cubs vs. White Sox, Braves vs. Blue Jays (Okay, maybe not Braves vs. Blue Jays), but are these contrived matchups more compelling then a Yankees-Red Sox matchup or a Dodgers-Giants matchup? I think 12 years ago, Interleague play mattered because it was “new”, but now it’s just another game. Before the advent of widespread free agency, players were either American Leaguers or National Leaguers. You didn’t see many players, especially big names, switch leagues--a situation which helps build and maintain rivalries. In your fantasy league, who is your biggest rival? Who generally has the better team between the two (or three) of you? Do you get more involved in your league if you and your rival are contending, compared to when it’s you up against another owner in your league? What would you do to beat your rival? I certainly am not advocating any ‘funny business’, but you need an edge, right? Here's an idea--bookmark RotoExperts.com and come back here every day. We'll give you that edge. Tom: I think we all have that special someone in our league who just always seems to get your goat. For me, it hits close to home, because that someone is my own flesh and blood – my older brother. Yes, it’s much more difficult when you are going head-to-head with someone you’ve known since the day you were born. It does get easier when you’re nearly 20 games ahead of him in the standings. And it’s a lot more fun to name your fantasy team after an ex-girlfriend of his. The winning, name-calling, trash talking – it’s what fantasy baseball is all about. Of course there has to be some sort of line drawn that neither of us would dare cross. Take for example the time my brother cried when Mike Piazza retired. We just don’t talk about those things. We don’t talk about the time he injured himself adjusting his child’s pillow. Oh, wait, that was Brandon Inge. I am not even going to try to figure that one out! But again, it’s always good to have someone in your league to whom you can talk a little harmless trash, too. After all, you can talk all the trash you want and leave all the message board comments in the world, so long as your team can back it up. And I suspect that to be the case for you, right Matt? JEFF BAKER, 2B, COL In another interesting development in Colorado, 27-year old Jeff Baker took over at second base for the injured Clint Barmes and has played much better than expected. In fact, in the month of June, he is hitting .388 with 19 hits and 14 runs in only 49 AB. He’s making it much more difficult for skipper Clint Hurdle to sit him on the bench. The good news for Baker is that he is second base eligible. If you are looking for second base help at this point of the season, this is great news! We also like that Baker is listed as the backup to oft-injured first baseman Todd Helton, and that he is the first in line to spell third baseman Garrett Atkins when he needs a day off or two. Jeff is a versatile player who is showing some pop in the bat and –- this is always important –- he plays his home games at Coors Field. With plenty of opportunities still available to Baker, we have to discuss whether he is the mother lode or merely fool’s gold. STATS (through June 26, 2008): AB: 128 H: 36 R: 24 HR: 5 RBI: 22 BB: 8 SB: 1 AVG: .281 Tom: I mentioned it last week when we discussed Alexei Ramirez, but the most intriguing letter and number combination that we can discuss in regards to Baker is that shiny little “2B” sandwiched between his name and his logo. At this point in the season, it seems like most teams are taking fliers on just about anyone who is second base eligible. Baker’s June numbers make him just the guy that fantasy players are looking to for filling that middle infield void. He has been red hot in June, but will this free ride end for Baker? Yes. Plain and simple. He has been pretty lucky due to injuries to Barmes and also the fact that he can play several infield positions. But, Barmes is back, and the one thing that Baker really does seem to lack is “baseball instinct.” I watched him play last weekend against the Mets, and there were several moments in that one series alone when he looked like he was still learning the game. Most notably he broke home after a passed ball, stopped halfway, and then started home again only to be out by a mile! Baker has a nice bat, but I am quite concerned about his low OBP (.319). He'll get a few extra at-bats at the DH slot with Interleague play underway, but I think Baker is heading back to being a utility player. He won’t get enough at-bats to factor into the waiver wire discussion. Fool’s Gold Matt: Baker was originally a third base prospect with the Rockies, but was firmly behind Garrett Atkins and Ian Stewart on the depth chart, so the move to second base was the best thing that could have happened for his career. Jeff showed decent power in the minors, posting 20 home runs and 108 RBI in 538 AB with Triple-A Colorado Springs in 2006. That experience seems to have translated to the majors, as he has hit 15 home runs in 367 career AB, which would give him about 24 home runs in a full 600 AB. I'll take that from a guy who is second base eligible! But, for the purposes of full disclosure, I will mention that he strikes out every 3.5 AB, and he has a career 4:1 strikeout-to-walk rate. Those numbers don't bode well for long-term effective production. So where does that leave Mr. Baker? Is he a player who will give you consistent power at a position (2B) that traditionally has few power options, or… not? Watch his playing time after this weekend. Interleague play ends Sunday, which means no more designated hitter opportunities, leaving at bats at a premium in this lineup. If it looks like Hurdle is committed to playing Baker every day, you should see decent numbers. Personally, if I am relying on a guy to play every day for my fantasy team, I would like to see him play every day in real life. I do not want to worry about my players getting their at bats. This Baker Boy is not Fabulous, he is Fool’s Gold.  | | Scott Baker lost his first two decisions after coming off the disabled list in June. Photo Credit Icon SMI |
SCOTT BAKER, SP, MIN Fun fact: Scott Baker became the first ever Twins pitchers to strike out four batters in the same inning on June 15, 2008. So let’s close the book on this one, right? Not so fast. Baker recently returned from a 15-day DL stint due to a groin injury. Since then he has been terrific. He’s posted a 1-2 record, a 2.63 ERA and a 20:5 strikeout to walk ratio in four starts. He seems to be back at full strength, averaging over 100 pitches per start since coming off the DL. Right now, he sits as the Twins number two starter, which doesn’t have the same meaning it’s had in years past. Without a healthy (mentally) Francisco Liriano, Baker joins Kevin Slowey as one of the most promising young pitchers for the Twins. With his injuries seemingly behind him, we debate on whether or not to proceed with caution when it comes to Scott Baker. STATS (through June 26, 2008): GS: 11 IP: 63.0 W: 3 K: 52 WHIP: 1.21 ERA: 3.57 Tom: I like the way Scott is throwing the ball lately. He is keeping the ball down and he is showing great command. Early on, he was giving up a lot of home runs and, as we all know, that translates into runs scored...and eventually losses. But Baker has come back strong and looks like he might have a bright future. Here’s my issue with calling Baker a “mother lode” –- he doesn’t strike out enough batters and is not going to get many wins along the way. The Twins are surprising a lot of people this year, as they’re only a half game out of first place in AL Central, but they are my pick for the team most likely to fade in the second half of the season. They’re still a young team with a promising future, but I’m just not sold on the 2008 Twins. What does that mean for Baker? Well, I think you’ll see a Zach Grienke situation here. A guy who may or may not get you seven to eight strikeouts, who will see his ERA hover around, and who'll win a handful of games along the way. Not enough to make a huge impact. You may want to take a flier on him and see if he can help your strikeout rates, but I wouldn’t count on him for the remainder of the season. He’s just a little too up and down for me. Fool’s Gold Matt: I usually prefer pitchers who are big strikeout guys, but Baker is still a project who will have a very good season and a very good career. Scott relies on a hard sinking fastball and also has a knuckle-curve, changeup, and a slider in his arsenal. Interestingly, for a guy who has a sinking fastball, you would expect a better groundout-to-flyout (GO/AO) ratio than Baker’s 0.75 (To put that in perspective, Brandon Webb sports the top GO/AO ratio among major league starters at 3.53). Additionally, Scott's career strikeout rate is a very pedestrian 6.5 K/9, but this season Scott has improved that number to a quite respectable 7.7 K/9. In fact all of his peripherals have improved in 2008 except one--and it’s a big one--he has given up nine home runs in 57 IP so far this season. To date, that hasn’t hurt him too badly. He has been able to keep runners off base, giving up 58 hits and only 10 walks in those 57 innings. Baker did miss time earlier this season due to a groin injury, and his value may not be where it should be. This would be a good time to call or e-mail the owner in your league that owns Baker to see if you can swing a deal. You won’t be disappointed, because Scott Baker is the Mother Lode. RICKY NOLASCO Ricky Nolasco was acquired (in exchange for Juan Pierre) by the Marlins in 2005, along with Sergio Mitre and Renyel Pinto, in a typical Marlins salary dump for prospects. The Marlins were hoping that the addition of Mitre and Nolasco to the rotation, which already featured Dontrelle Willis and Scott Olsen, would give them a good, solid, young staff, much like the Atlanta Braves had in the early 1990s. Now Florida management must be thinking “If it weren't for bad luck, we’d have no luck at all.” The Marlins have developed some young pitchers with fantastic upside to join Nolasco, only to see Nolasco (chronic elbow inflammation), Mitre, Josh Johnson, and Anibal Sanchez suffer major injuries that have stymied their development. In fact, out of these four young pitchers, Nolasco is the only one who is not presently on the DL. In 2008, Nolasco is pitching quite well for the Marlins, giving up three runs or less in eight of his last nine starts. Nolasco can throw three pitches for strikes (fastball, curve, changeup) and sports a decent 2:1 K/BB ratio. Assuming he stays healthy, what can Nolasco provide for your fantasy squad the rest of the season? I am sure Matt and Tom have a thought or two they would like to share. STATS (through June 26, 2008): GS: 14 IP: 87.2 W: 7 K: 58 WHIP: 1.35 ERA: 4.31 Matt: Every year, there are players about whom you wonder “What if?” More often then not, that question is “What if he had stayed healthy?” For some players, that question dogs them their entire career. Eric Davis played 17 seasons in the Majors, but he never appeared in more then 135 games. Davis had a very good career but lost over 800 games due to injuries, which translates to five full seasons. While Nolasco is nowhere near that bad and is only 25 years old, you hate to see injuries force players to lose playing time, especially when they are young and developing. Injuries aside, the one thing preventing Nolasco from being an even better pitcher is his inability to get left-handed hitters out. For his career, Ricky has allowed left-handers to hit .316, while holding right-handed hitters a more reasonable .244 batting average. In 2008, he has improved both of those numbers to a more reasonable .292 vs. left-handers and .224 vs. right-handers. I like what I have seen from Nolasco this season, and I'd expect him to pitch even better in the second half, as he continues to get stronger and learns to be a better pitcher. Don’t be shy, go after this Mother Lode. Tom: What if? What if Ricky Nolasco had not pitched well against Tampa Bay, allowing only seven base runners and two earned runs while striking out 12 batters? Would we even be talking about him? No. That’s the simple answer. I think one of the most flawed roster moves a fantasy owner can make is using a small sample size –- one game –- and going off that one performance, instead of looking at a player's history. I think it’s hard to equate the Ricky Nolasco story to the Eric Davis saga. Ricky Nolasco does not have the same potential that Davis did. Ricky was a fourth-round draft pick coming out of high school. I think he’s pitching as well as we would expect from him. I use the word “nice” here, because that’s the best way to describe him. I can’t get too excited about Nolasco. He is a middle of the rotation type of starter, and at this point, I am not ready to go out on a limb and vouch for him. I think you can find pitching help elsewhere because he is nothing more than a 4.50 ERA type of pitcher with a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s no Eric Davis. He’s probably not even Doug Davis! Fool’s Gold. MARCUS THAMES, OF, DET Marcus Thames started out in the New York Yankees system and spent six years in the minors before finally breaking through to the Majors in the 2002 season, appearing in a whopping seven games. He then played 30 games with the Texas Rangers in 2003, before settling in with the Tigers in 2004. For the past four years, Marcus has navigated I-75 between Triple-A Toledo and Detroit, as he has been up and down from the minors on numerous occasions. The book on Thames is pretty simple. He will hit for power without hitting for average, and he will strike out a lot. In 2006 for example, he hit 26 home runs in only 348 AB, and over his last 750 at-bats, Thames has hit 58 home runs. However during that same 750 at bats, he also struck out 192 times and walked only 64 times, while hitting a combined .252. This season, Thames is hitting a robust (for him) .263. He is 11-for-32 with seven home runs and 10 RBI in his past 10 games. With the return of Gary Sheffield, has Marcus done enough to keep an everyday gig with Detroit? Let’s ask our resident experts, Matt and Tom – Matt, why don’t you lead us off this week. STATS (through June 26, 2008): AB: 135 H: 35 R: 26 HR: 14 RBI: 31 BB: 14 SB: 0 AVG: .259 Matt: Thames is a career journeyman who is your classic hot-and-cold hitter. That would be fine, except he normally follows up a hot streak with a cold streak that lasts three times as long. Generally, he will crush pitchers who are below average and struggle against guys who can actually pitch. Since he is pretty good defensively and has a good arm, the Tigers should just play Thames every day and live with his .250 BA and his propensity to strike out. Heck, guys like Rob Deer and Dave Kingman made a nice living doing exactly that. However, that was a different day and age of baseball, and in this era, that type of player is not appreciated. As far as what to expect from Thames for the rest of this year, I believe that, with Sheffield back, Thames will find himself in a platoon situation in left field. What does that mean? Barring another injury, he will have minimal value for the rest of 2008. If you have Thames on your team, find that sucker in your league to whom you can peddle a guy like Marcus. Hopefully, no one offers you Thames, because not only is he Fool’s Gold, but it would mean that you are the sucker in your league. Tom: Wow, harsh words, Matt. I’m going to play sucker’s advocate for a moment and talk up Mr. Marcus Thames. Over his past 136 games, Thames has hit 35 HRs and has 85 RBI. He’s nothing more than a power source for a team, so those really are the only stats worth looking at. He’s not going to steal bases--he’ll get 75 runs over a full season and he’ll hit .250 this year. So, let’s not debate those statistics, because the ceiling for those categories are not that high. Let’s look at Thames as strictly a power source, and I’ll give you a good reason why he’s a legitimate fantasy option. He has hit nine HRs this month in just 59 ABs. As long as he stays healthy, he will get his ABs. Marcus is starting in left field and is also able to play a little first base as well as right field. If Thames gets 500 ABs this season, which is completely reasonable, I think he can top out at 35 to 40 HRs and 95 RBI. Not bad if you are a fantasy owner lacking in power numbers. The expectations for Thames should be the same as that of Jim Thome, Jason Giambi (fewer walks and runs), and Travis Hafner. I think there is a possibility that you will see Thames out-homer both Hafner and Thome and hang right in there with Jason Giambi in terms of power numbers. Call me a sucker, Matt, but I think Thames is a viable option for those who are looking for a boost in power. Mother Lode Matt and Tom can never remember if it was Vince Lombardi or Reese Bobby who once said “If you’re not first, you’re last.’ Regardless, that’s the attitude you heed to have if you want to overcome your biggest rival. For more inspirational words and/or random movie quotes, e-mail Tom @
This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
and Matt @
This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
|