Every week in the “Fantasy Football Scout,” Scott Engel takes an in-depth look at risky and controversial players, making those challenging draft day decisions easier.

Eli Manning, QB, Giants

He is the quarterback of the Super Bowl champs. He now has as many rings as his brother, Peyton Manning, who gets far more press and accolades. He throws some of the prettiest deep balls you'll ever see. He beat Tom Brady in the biggest game of his life so far. Yet fantasy owners, clinging fast to last year's erratic production during the regular season and up-and-down play in his first four NFL campaigns, refuse to give Eli the respect he deserves.

I participated in an experts draft on Mock Draft Central on June 29. Among established fantasy analysts, Eli is still considered a risky pick, more so than he is considered a Super Bowl champion. The Trent Dilfer rule states that even if a quarterback (or any player) wins it all, he doesn't automatically become a top fantasy pick the next season. Manning is no Dilfer, and I was a bit shocked to see him fall as far as the ninth round. Heck, if I didn't already have Peyton, who has the same bye week as Eli, I would have taken the new hero of New Jersey in the eighth round. I wanted Eli badly, but I just can't have quarterbacks with the same bye weeks. Not taking him had nothing to do with my view that, as a native New Yorker, I don't consider the Giants a real New York team.

As of June 30, Eli's average draft position on Mock Draft Central was 82.41, making him a ninth-rounder in 10-team leagues. At No. 80 overall on the MDC Draft Report, he is lower than the enigmatic Chris Chambers and a guy that no one is going to want to start at RB very soon, DeAngelo Williams. Man, talk about no respect! Cue up the Rodney Dangerfield sound clip.

I want Eli on my fantasy team, even though I wear a Matt Hasselbeck jersey on Sundays (Note: If you e-mail me and I think you're a good guy/gal, I'll tell you where I watch the games on Sundays in New York and we can hang out). The Dilfer rule does not apply here at all. At some point in his career, Eli was either going to turn it on, or he was forever destined to be a bust. The pivotal and defining run in Eli's career started in Week 17 of the regular season last year. Scratch just about everything you thought you knew about Eli until then. Don’t give me numbers from last year's regular season or a three-year average. This is not fantasy baseball. Don't hold hard and fast to numbers when they simply aren't applicable. I should have listed 76 tips for draft day instead of 75, with the 76th being that you should strive to project what will drive a player's numbers, rather than leaning heavily on his past statistics.

I saw Eli starting to become a new quarterback in the final week of the regular season last year, when his maturation process began for real. Every quarterback is different. Some "get it" right away, like Ben Roethlisberger. Others never do (can I have that in a large, Mr. Mirer? I'm sorry, was that J.P. Losman just filling out an application?), while some learn on the job until the light switch goes on mentally, and suddenly everything comes together for them. The confidence, lack of fear, ability to make crisp reads, guts under pressure, and ability to make good decisions all come together to support the natural ability. For Eli, the light went on in the regular-season finale against New England, and he screwed the bulb in tighter every week afterward...to the point where it's not going to fall out of the socket again. He's arrived, and the mythical bulb inside this good quarterback's head won't go off again, even if it flickers once in awhile. Alright, enough with the analogies; I'm starting to sound like Paul Stanley of Kiss. Simply put, Eli arrived during the most critical games of the Giants season last year, and he is not about to suddenly revert to his past form--often intimidated, not up to speed mentally, and shaky under pressure. Those days are gone.

Like someone facing their fears after going through good therapy, Eli did not back down to the Patriots in Week 17. In terms of his development, it was the most pivotal game to this point in his career. Eli threw four touchdown passes and only one interception, as he strived to match Brady shot for shot. He didn't back down against the vaunted New England defense and overlooked their history-making run to that point. All Eli saw was his receivers and the open windows in coverage, the type of vision that only an above-average quarterback can handle under duress and at the rapid level of speed of the National Football League.

Then Eli went on a memorable postseason run that was more about proving his mettle than stacking up great numbers. The first step was finally winning his first postseason game, one in which he led a game-clinching drive against Tampa Bay. Then he played a key role as the Giants upset Dallas. Eli truly arrived in the NFC Championship game at Green Bay, overcoming adverse conditions to repeatedly put his team in position to score, especially in critical situations. By then, it was clear that Eli was a new quarterback. He had won all three NFC playoff games on the road under the most pressure he may ever face. Not only was he in the killer postseason atmosphere, but the heavy pressure to win in the New Jersey area was also following him. Followers who really believe that the Giants are a New York team were adding tons of pressure, not to even mention the huge media specter.

What happened in the Super Bowl was an encore and further proof that few doubts should linger about Eli heading into the new season. Everyone seems to praise David Tyree for "The Catch", but it doesn't happen without Eli's newfound tenacity under fire. Heck, that catch is the single-most revered individual feat in New York since John Starks dunked on Michael Jordan. Eli delivered performances that can define a career late last season, and he delivered them in the most challenging of circumstances. He's not about to suddenly take a step backward in his development this year, not after reaching those levels of performance. Like Butthead, he has "seen the top of the mountain. And it is good."

Eli didn't throw more than two touchdown passes in any playoff game, yet it was more about his performance than the box scores in those games. With less pressure during the regular season, a quality running game, and a balanced receiving crew, Eli will be much more confident and effective in 2008. He'll often be good, and sometimes he will be spectacular. I simply don't see how he can suddenly morph back into his past self, after coming so far under the most challenging circumstances late last season. The numbers aren’t there yet to back up my claims, but I believe they will be very soon. That's why I rank Eli ninth among fantasy quarterbacks right now, and I sometimes wonder if that's too low. If you pass on him, I'll gladly take him.

Next week, I will tackle more than one player in this space. See you then!

Scott Engel doesn't root for the Jets, either. Not only do they play in another state, they don't even have their own stadium. Buffalo is not one of the five boroughs. New York doesn’t have a football team other than the AFL's Dragons, so he is free to choose any one he wants. Contact Scott at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it .

Comments (1)

Subscribe to this comment's feed