Every year, I try my best to shock the world with some tidbit of fantasy advice that goes against the grain of common thinking.  How much does it really matter if you rank Adrian Peterson at #1 or #2? Most likely if you get one of those picks, you’ll be happy with your choice at the end of the draft.  Impress me with your selection of Ryan Grant or Earnest Graham before they became hot commodities, and you’ve got my full attention.

The problem is, the draft isn’t the end of the season, and there are so many unforeseeable variables. 

For instance, last year I wasn’t high on Ronnie Brown. My reasoning was his injury history. I was way wrong for eight weeks, but he put a hurt on a lot of people’s championship hopes when he went down. On the other hand, I was in serious man love with Kellen Winslow, and even now people malign the guy as someone who can’t play in pain.

Did anyone pay attention to what he did for the Browns last year? Da Solja is definitely high on my list again this year.

My concern this year is LaDainian Tomlinson. His track record says he is the defacto #1 pick.  I won’t argue with that. But my concern is and has been the massive number of touches he has had in eight years of playing football in the NFL.  He scares me. 

If I had the first pick in the draft, I’d select him. But I would be looking to rape some owner in exchange for several studs by mid-season.  As a bargaining chip, and especially if he is performing in true LT fashion, he would definitely command a premium. And at the end of the day, the objective isn’t to own the best running back in the league; the objective is to win your fantasy league.

I am equally leery of Peterson, but I'm also as enthralled as the next guy. My concern for him is the same as it was for Brown last year.   In his rookie season, he had to be replaced or substituted for too often for my taste.  He was an injury waiting to happen in college, as well. That doesn’t bode well for a guy you are selecting at the top of the first round. The reality is that whoever you select has to be MONEY.  You can’t afford, with as many players that will fly off the board before your next pick comes around, for that person not to be a major contributor to your team.

This year, I’m not a Frank Gore fan either because…yeah, that injury thing again. This is where things get problematic. Running backs in the NFL have a very short life span.  Once they get hurt, it’s very hard to return to form.  No matter how good they are, the more often they get hurt, the sooner the end comes. Gore has been hurt a lot, and again it has to do with his running style. This year, his offensive line could be one of the bottom five in the league.  Mike Martz can scheme until game time, but he can’t fake the lack of talent on the offensive line once the whistle blows.

Hopefully Graham's new 4 year $10.5 million dollar extension will put a smile on his face. Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Big Fat Claim #1 - Earnest Graham will be a top 5 RB, if he stays healthy. Graham started 10 games for the NFC South champion Buccaneers last year and amassed over 1,200 combined yards to go with 11 TDs. With one of the most improved offensive lines in the NFL, a new center in Jeff Faine, and a full year as the starter, 1,700 total yards and 14 TDs would be viable targets.  Graham will go in the second or third round in your draft, unless of course you do a live draft with a bunch of Tampa homers.

Big Fat Claim #2 - Eli Manning has arrived.  While Eli was in college, even Peyton was saying that he was a better QB. If you know anything about Peyton’s ego, you know that had to be a difficult pill to swallow. Of course, Manning the Younger hasn’t come close to duplicating big brother’s feats…well, except the part about winning a Super Bowl.

It’s easy to disagree with me on this one, but that doesn’t bother me.  The emergence of Ahmad Bradshaw as a viable alternative to Brandon Jacobs, the return to health of third year WR Steve Smith, and another solid performance from Plaxico Burress will provide him with plenty of targets.  I also expect the defense to lose a step this year, which means the Giants offense will have to pick up the slack.  Scott Engel has him ranked as the 9th QB overall, but I’m going to slot him above Matt Hasselbeck at #8.

Big Fat Claim #3 – Braylon Edwards will be the #1 WR this year. Yeah, I stepped in it now, didn’t I? Last year Randy Moss played for a championship ring, and he got it. While it’s pretty difficult to go against a player who had nine 100-yard games and eight games with at least 2 TD, Moss is another one of those guys who is getting older and comes with injury concerns.  Edwards and Terrell Owens were in that same tier last year and probably are again this year, and Owens was the only top 20 WR to finish with a better YPC (16.7) than Edwards last year.  Derek Anderson gets another year better, the Browns continue with a high powered offense and one of the best offensive lines in the game, and Edwards rises to the top.

Big Fat Claim #4 – Tom Brady will not be the fantasy super power he was last year, and those who select him in the first round are going to be disappointed. In his seventh year as a starter, Brady set career bests in passing yards (4,806), touchdowns (50), interceptions (8), completion percentage (68.9%), and yards per attempt (8.31).  Frankly, he’s due for a big letdown.  Knock him down to 4,000 yards and 35 TD passes, and then tell me if you still think he should go in the first round. While it’s certainly plausible that he will still have stellar numbers, history is against him. Take a trip in my time machine to see what I mean.

In his seventh year as a starter, Peyton Manning set career totals for passing yards (4,557), touchdowns (49), completion percentage (67.6), and yards per attempt (9.17).  The following year, he threw for 3,747/28/10. Certainly solid numbers, but not worthy of the first round pick that was bestowed upon him in most expert cheat sheets.

In 1999, Kurt Warner burst on the scene with a 4,383/41/13 line. In 2000, his numbers dropped to 3,429/21/18. In 2001 he was at it again, 4,830/36/22 and was again touted as a sure-fire early first round pick. Injuries took him out that year, but the point is the same. He didn’t produce after a huge previous year.

Still not convinced?

In 1984 Dan Marino threw for 5,084 yards, 48 TDs, and 17 INTs. I drafted him in the first round the following year, and while he was a solid performer with 4,137 yards, his TDs dropped to 30, and his INTs climbed to 21. Again, that's not first round material. I could have had one of the QBs in the table below for a lot less and lost little in the scoring department. Instead I got caught with not enough talent at RB and didn’t repeat as league champ. For the record, in 1984, I picked up Neil Lomax off waivers, and he threw for 4,600 yards. The following year? 3,200. Lomax, Eric Dickerson, and Marcus Allen carried me to the promised land and my first league title.

(Source: Pro Football Reference)

You can’t win your fantasy league by looking to the past, unless it’s to learn the lessons of those who have failed before you.  It’s okay to mock me now, just remember to take a look back at the end of the year to see if I was right or not.

That’s the purpose of the Big Fat Claim.  Put your reputation on the line, and be held accountable for it. 

Ben Ice has been playing fantasy football for longer than he’d care to remember, and is used to having people look at him cross-eyed when he steps way out on the ledge with his Big Fat Claims. Feel free to give him a shove, whether you agree or not, at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

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