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MOVING UP, MOVING DOWN: A tale of two halves (Part One) PDF Print E-mail
Written by Jon Williams, RotoExperts.com Staff Writer   
Tuesday, 08 July 2008

Jon Williams reviews players who are gaining or losing fantasy value at the moment.

 

She didn’t bother knocking. She also didn’t enter the room like a normal person; instead, she turned the knob and gave my office door a small shove. Only when the door was completely open did she deign to enter. And what an entrance it was. She had it all, everything a growing boy needs in a woman. She wore a blood red dress, strapless and sleeveless, that covered her from breastbone to ankles, yet it still left little to the imagination. She walked toward me, one agonizingly beautiful step at a time. As I absently wiped the drool from my chin with my sleeve, she bent over my desk and gave me the onceover.

“Are you him,” she said with a shoulder shrug towards the name on my door. “I hope so, because I really need your help.”

I leaned back in my chair and swung a foot onto my desk, as I considered all the things I might be able to do to help this damsel in distress. The truth is... I had just decided to take a last look at my Google Reader before calling it a night. But she wasn’t exactly waiting for me to make a decision.

“I must have listened to some bad advice, because now my entire organization is a mess. I need someone like you to help me get a handle on it. I heard that you were the best and that you also, you know, work cheap.”

I gave her a brief nod and put both feet on the floor as she slid a neatly-typed sheet of names at me. As I scanned the list I started to feel for the girl. This was one of the worst fantasy baseball teams I’d ever laid eyes upon; every name was a first-half disaster. I had to help her, so I quickly identified the worst performers, figuring we could dump these losers and take an immediate step forward. She wasn’t having it; she wanted to know the “why” of every move. So, I slid over to my ancient desktop, tilted the monitor in her direction and pulled up some stats so I could break it down for this poor babe in red.

  1. Travis Hafner
    Pronk, pictured above in early spring, has seen his numbers decline steadily in the past 2 years. Photo Credit imagesbyferg
    Joe Borowski, RP, Cleveland Indians – Hey, Doll face, he’s been designated for assignment already! He’s been a terrible pitcher for years now. His only value to a fantasy owner has been his role as a closer. In 16 lousy innings, he has as many walks as strikeouts to go with a 7.56 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP – I don’t care who picks him up, he isn’t worth a roster spot.
  2. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees – Cano has been warming up lately, but he’s fooled us before. To be perfectly honest, I’ve never really believed in Cano’s talent. He has no idea of how to take a walk. His only redeeming quality is that he makes great contact and rarely strikes out. I know he had a big comeback last season, but counting on that to happen again is a fool’s gambit. The Yankees great lineup inflated his statistics, and that group is clearly in decline now. Trade Cano while you still can.
  3. Travis Hafner, DH, Cleveland Indians – The signs were there for you last season. In 545 at-bats, he had about half the production that we’ve come to expect from him. Did you really think it was going to get better? He is batting .217/.326/.350 in 157 at-bats this year. He’s a big, slow DH -- exactly the type of player that is prone to suddenly falling off the planet in terms of production. Cut him now; it just isn’t worth waiting any longer.
  4. Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox - He’s on the disabled list with an oblique strain but is scheduled to be activated this week. Konerko is a very streaky player; the problem is sometimes those streaks last for an entire season. He was in an ever-so-slight upswing when he was placed on the DL, but I won’t allow that fact to sway my judgment. It’s time to bail on Konerko. He’s batting .215/.322/.368 so far this season. You might collect a few extra homers by holding on to him, but the lousy batting average isn’t going to help resolve your situation.
  5. J.J. Putz, RP, Seattle Mariners – Hey you weren’t the only fantasy player who was misled by this guy. He was one of the best closers in the American League the last couple of years. But listen, he’s been placed on the disabled list twice this season. The present DL stint is due to a freakin’ elbow injury. He’s had numbness in his fingers and shooting pain in his forearm and elbow – these are signs of serious health problems, usually Tommy John Surgery-type health problems. You don’t need this kind of aggravation.

 

She looked stunned. She fell back into one of the plush chairs in front of my desk, and frankly, I was relieved. I’m great at what I do, but trying to think with this doll hovering just inches away puts a lot of pressure on a dude. I should have given this American League Diva more credit; she regained her composure in a flash and started machine gunning questions at me:

“What about Justin Verlander, is he worth hanging onto?”
“Why didn’t you tell me to dump Rafael Betancourt?”
“Isn’t Derek Jeter having a bad year too?”
“Who am I going to use to replace all these guys you’re suggesting I cut?”

I put a hand up to halt her barrage of questions. I motioned her around to my side of the desk, so she could get at my old Dell. Then I had her log into her fantasy league’s site for me to look at what was on her waiver wire. 

It was actually a surprise when she asked me about Verlander. He’s been pretty solid since his horrible month of April. I think she might be one of those owners who covers his/her eyes to avoid seeing bad news. Verlander was mediocre in May (.264 BAA, 3.92 ERA), but he was his usual dominating self in June (.197 BAA, 2.73 ERA). His first start in July (6 IP, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3K) wasn’t great, but it sure didn’t worry me too much. I’m expecting Verlander and the Detroit Tigers to make a ton of noise in the second half.

As she struggled to remember her password, I filled her in on Rafael Betancourt. I understood her concern of course. Betancourt had been on a ton of pre-season sleeper lists as the guy to take Borowski’s closer job when the Indians inevitably dump him. Unfortunately, Betancourt was atrocious when he was temporarily given the job, while Borowski was on the disabled list. I cupped her cute little chin in my hand for emphasis and let her know that Betancourt’s April/May numbers were just a small blip that should be forgotten. Betancourt’s strikeout rate has been solid all season. In 38.2 IP, Betancourt has recorded 39 strikeouts. And yes, he has allowed 12 walks, but as of Thursday, his last 10 outings had been pretty redeeming – a .237 BAA and a 10:3 K/BB ratio. He was one of the best pitchers in the game last season, and I expect him to have a stellar second half.  If nothing else, Betancourt is a safer bet than Masa Kobayashi.

Truthfully, I got a little angry when she brought up Jeter. Jeter is the guy in baseball that does the most to make me feel old. We’re pretty close in age, and I’ve always figured that, as long as he is at the top of his game, I will be too. He’s one of my favorites, but unfortunately, age is starting to catch up with him. His speed on the bases isn’t even close to what it once was, and neither is that of his bat. Still, he isn’t hurting fantasy teams except in situations where GMs bought him thinking it was 1998. For the season, Jeter is batting .282/.345/.387 with four home runs and five stolen bases, which is perfectly fine for a shortstop in the American League. Wait, this frail lady has Cano and Jeter on her fantasy baseball team? Could she be a Yankee fan as well as a fantasy geek? What an idea!

After several attempts, she finally managed to log onto the site that monitored her league. As suspected, it was an AL-only league, and she’d done very little maintenance on her squad of players. Fortunately, her leaguemates weren’t much more diligent, and there were several players on her waiver wire that could help:

  1. Jeff Clement, C, Seattle Mariners – Clement is one of the better power-hitting catchers you’ll find. He’s been doing time in the minors, because the Mariners former management officials made the horrible mistake of signing catcher Kenji Johjima to a contract extension. This mistake is now being corrected. Clement is in the majors to stay, and he’ll be getting the majority of his at-bats as the regular starter at catcher.
  2. Chris Davis, 1B, Texas Rangers – Davis is the power-hitting first baseman for whom the Texas Rangers have been searching all season. He has looked outstanding this season at two levels of the Rangers’ minor league system, hitting a combined .333/.386/.643 with 23 homers and seven stolen bases in just 297 AB.
  3. Brett Gardner, OF, New York Yankees – Gardner is a contact hitter with good on-base ability and amazing speed on the bases. He is a virtual clone of Jacoby Ellsbury of the Boston Red Sox. Once he adjusts to the major leagues, he should be an annual 40-steal player. Before his recent call-up, Gardner was hitting .287/.412/.429 with three home runs and 34 stolen bases in 282 Triple-A AB.
  4. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Oakland Athletics – He hasn’t put up any mind-blowing stats yet, but Gonzalez is a future stud. He should hit for average and power, and he'll also throw in a few steals when he has the right manager. Gonzalez should only improve heading in the second half of the season.
  5. Max Ramirez, C, Texas Rangers – Do you remember last year when Geovany Soto came up from the minors and instantly convinced everyone that he would be the 2008 Rookie-of-the-Year? Well Ramirez is the American League version. He’s been destroying the minor leagues by batting .363/.457/.662 with 17 homers and two stolen bases in a mere 237 at-bats in double-A. He isn’t playing everyday at this point but the trio of Ramirez, Chris Davis and Jarrod Saltalamacchia should finish the season as the Rangers’ catcher, first baseman and designated hitter.

She placed a single finger on her lips while she considered my advice, and then she rose in one elegant motion and started towards the door. I grabbed my jacket and keys and beat her to it. As she glided through the doorway, she brushed her plump lips across my cheek and hooked my arm. I grabbed the knob of the door and pulled it shut. I locked the door, and as I did, I read my name and title on the door: Jon Williams – Fantasy Baseball Expert.

NEXT WEEK: We take a look at the National League’s first half disappointments and second half hopefuls.

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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 08 July 2008 )
 
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