|
Mark Strausberg reviews which players are in contract years and tells you how to handle them in Fantasy Football.
The “Contract Year” player theory is pretty simple: When a guy’s contract is expiring in a certain year, he’ll play extra hard. He has that extra motivation to prove he’s a valuable player, so he can a) extend his contract, b) get a new contract, or c) sign a big money deal. If works out, maybe all three. Should you assume that any player who is not in a contract year will be less motivated to play well? Doesn’t a player want to play well every year? Sure, sometimes the contract theory works out. Tony Romo and Randy Moss both had expiring contracts last year, and I think it is safe to say they had a pretty good year. Bryon Leftwich also had an expiring contract. So did Devery Henderson. Are you planning to draft either of those two players? Still, there is some validity to the theory, so let us look at the options. These following players are all hoping to pull a Rod Tidwell. And unlike Jerry Maguire, you have the luxury of sorting through these players. With quotes from the movie in mind, I’ll break down the possibilities, looking at them in ascending probable order of production: Jump in my nightmare, the water’s warm!
Rex Grossman/Kyle Orton -I wonder how many Bears fans go to sleep at night wearing their McMahon jersey, only to wake up the next day and realize that Grossman (4 TDs and 7 INTs in 2007) and Orton (if he can’t beat out Grossman, do you really even need his stats?) are still their starting options at QB. While neither has shown the ability to produce overwhelming stats, expect one of them to do something this year. They'll want to at least get a contract offer from some team, possibly the Bears. But that doesn’t mean you have to roster either of them. “How’s your head?” “Bubblicious.”
This is Ricky Williams’ own category. If Williams can show that his head is still in the game and that he can still produce, expect him to see a new contract. Of course, that bubble could pop at any moment. It has been five years since Williams even sniffed double digit TDs. The NFL’s favorite toker is now 31 years old, right at the age where RBs start to break down. It is probably going to take a Ronnie Brown injury for Williams to even have a chance at contributing in fantasy, and the Dolphins offense is not exactly a well-oiled machine. Stranger things have happened (especially in Ricky's life). If you’re in a deep league, he might be worth a late round flier. I’m finished. Twenty four hours ago, man, I was hot! Now...I'm a cautionary tale.
In the blink of an eye, an NFL player can go from the top of the world to the bottom of the free agent heap. It seems like just yesterday that Kevin Jones was coming off a 1,000-yard season and was going to be the back to replace Barry Sanders in Detroit. The same goes for Shaun Alexander, when he was the league MVP. They are lumped together, because as of this writing, both players are currently unemployed. I'd expect both to sign one year deals with somebody, and if they can convince a team to sign them, they might just get a multiyear deal. If you believe in the contract year theory, no one would be more motivated than these two to show that they still have the ability to contribute. Alexander had 27 rushing TDs and 1,880 rushing yards in 2005, but in the “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” league, the four rushing TDs and 3.5 YPC average in 2007 will be a tough sell. At least Alexander has been a stud before. Kevin Jones has never had double digit TDs, partly due to his recurring residence on the bench due to injury. Unlike Alexander, Jones is still 25 and does not have as much “mileage” on him. Monitor their situation closely. If either RB ends up in a promising situation, don’t be surprised to see the contract year theory hold true. You are hanging on by a very thin thread, and I dig that about you!
The following QBs are nearing their end of their respective careers, but they’re still hanging on and could see a new contract in 2009: Jeff Garcia (QB, TB)
Garcia is not going to pass for 32 TDs like he did in 2001. He’s not. End of story. Garcia was a “serviceable” QB last year, finishing with a 94.6 QB rating. Much of that rating was based on his better than 4:1 ratio of TDs to INTs (13-to-4). Garcia started 13 games and threw for 2,440 yards in 2007. You want a little more from your fantasy QB. Even more importantly, Tampa Bay’s support in him comes into question with the approximately 792 other QBs on the roster heading into preseason. How much demand is there for a 38-year-old QB? However, if even someone like Vinny Testaverde’s phone rang last year, you have to figure that someone like Garcia should be able to stay employed. Plus, Garcia has come back from the dead before, most recently when he was with Philadelphia. I wouldn’t count Garcia out, but I wouldn’t want to have to count on him either. Kurt Warner (QB, ARI)
Pop-quiz hotshot... How many TDs did Warner throw last year? 15? 20? 25? Keep going. He threw 27 TDs last year to go with his 3,417 yards. Most of the league would have liked to get those numbers from their starter, let alone their backup QB. But Warner has actually been in the league longer than Garcia has. Did the Cardinals really draft Matt Leinart so he could hold a clipboard? And oh yeah, then there’s that concussion thing. One more vicious hit and Brenda might not let her husband play anymore, regardless of the numbers he can still put up. Warner might win the starting job, or he might be one of the better QB handcuffs out there. But if you grab Warner, just realize that the ride might be very short. ‘What do you want from me? My soul?’ ‘Why not? I deserve that much’.
The talent is unquestionable, but are you willing to make a deal with The Devil (a.k.a. Drew Rosenhaus)? Terrell Owens definitely has the talent (15 TDs and 1,355 yards in 2007, 13 TDs and 1,180 in 2006). However, even though he hasn't done it in Dallas yet, Owens has a knack for wearing out his welcome. Just ask the Philadelphia Eagles. Still, even if he becomes petulant this year, T.O. has proven that he might be worth the gamble after two consecutive good years. I personally stay away from guys like this, but if he starts to slip in your draft, you have to take him. "You tell me to eat lima beans, I'll eat lima beans."
The following players could be extremely valuable, but none of them have yet had a monster season to throw at management. If they can do what is being asked of them, however, they should see the money. Lee Evans (WR, BUF)
In his rookie year, Evans gave Bills fans a reason for hope, when he caught 48 passes for 843 yards and 9 TDs. Unfortunately, Evans has not matched or exceeded that TD total in any subsequent year. Evans probably had his best all-around season in 2006, with 82 receptions, 1,292 yards, and 8 TDs. However, he regressed last year, catching only 55 balls for less than 900 yards and only 5 TDs. If Evans can prove that 2006 is what we should expect and not 2007, expect Buffalo to resign him. Brandon Jacobs (RB, NYG)
Stuck behind Tiki Barber his first two years in the league, the New York Giants expected big things from Jacobs when they handed him the starting role. His bruising running style last year helped him punish defensive players to the tune of 1,009 yards and a YPR of 5.0. But the defensive players were not the only ones getting bruised. Jacobs had not one, but two multi-game absences due to injury last year. If Jacobs expects a big contract, he’s going to have to prove he can stay on the field.
Amani Toomer (WR, NYG)
Toomer’s best season was 2002, when he caught 82 passes for 1,343 yards and eight TDs. However, his numbers have dropped every year since then, until his numbers rebounded slightly in 2007. But will this 34-year-old be able to rebound enough to hold off the surging “other” Steve Smith and David “THE CATCH” Tyree? My guess is no. Toomer will probably sign with another team, but for a lot less money. Desmond Clark (TE, CHI)
This ten year veteran is probably going to continue to lose playing time to Greg Olsen, but Clark has proven that he’s a reliable red zone target. He has had two seasons of 6 TDs, one of them as recently as 2006, and Clark has caught more than 40 passes three of the last five seasons. Clark might be playing his last season in a Chicago Bears uniform, but don’t be surprised to see him playing next season as well, possibly for less money. “You had me at hello”
I saved the best for last. These players could probably do squat (season-ending injury?) and would still probably see a nice big contract in 2009. Steven Jackson (RB, STL)
S-Jax is the crème de la crème of contract year players. An injury last year dampened his numbers, but if does what he did in 2006 (2,334 combined yards and 16 TDs), he’ll definitely earn a big contract after the season. He’ll be one of the first five RBs taken in your league... and rightfully so. Roy Williams (WR, DET)
Here are Williams’ three year averages: 63 catches, 7 TDs, and 944 yards. Those might not be elite numbers, but they are definitely stats worthy of being an NFL team’s #1 WR, and definitely worthy of being a great WR2 on your fantasy team. It's not the numbers which makes Williams impressive; it's the actual catches he makes. Every time I’ve seen Williams play, he’s either picking one up a fingernail’s length off the turf, reaching behind him and snagging the ball out of the cornerback’s arms, or making a one armed-leap. The man can catch a football. I’m banking on Williams being able to bank some serious greenbacks before next season. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR, CIN)
While his teammate Chad Johnson annoys Cincy management and grabs all the headlines (both positive and negative), all “Housh” has done is put up monster numbers. And the numbers have improved every year. His latest was a 112 catch, 1,143, and 12 TD season. Even if he regresses to his three year average of 93/1,060/9, those are still pretty nice numbers. And Housh might improve on last year’s numbers. If there’s anyone on this list whose contract I expect to see jump exponentially, it’s Housh. Mark Strausberg reminds you that it is not about the coin, it is about the quan. Well, that's if the quan is winning your fantasy league. Ask him to show you the money at
This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
.
 |
Football 
Subscribe to this comment's feed