Fantasy basketball expert Tom Lorenzo breaks down the week ahead in his final installment of Moving Without the Ball.

Finally! We have reached the last week and a half of the NBA regular season. Those of you still paying attention are either in the finals of your H2H leagues or you’re trying to pick up a few more points to close out your roto leagues. Then again, some of you may be gearing up for next season. And for that I will do my best to give you a few closing thoughts for those in keeper and franchise leagues. The final week is broken down between Monday, April 6, and Wednesday, April 15. We’re going to take a more conservative approach this week, since sometimes it’s best to “go with what go you here.” And with that, let’s maneuver our way through this wayward week.

Six-game teams: MEM, NOH, OKC, ORL, PHI, POR, SAC, SAS, TOR
Five-game teams: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MIA, MIN, NJN, NYK, PHO, UTA
Four-game teams: DEN, MIL, WAS

Monday
There are no games scheduled. That’s good news for those of you who are gearing up for the 2009 baseball season. It’s Opening Day, baby! 

Good Odds
What a terrible cold you seem to have come down with on Monday morning. You better call out sick from work. Wink, wink. 

Bad Goods
Oh, right, you called out two weeks ago so you could stay home and watch the NCAA Tournament.

Tuesday
We’ve got nine games on the schedule to kick-off the week. The major theme this week is going to be playoff positioning, as well as accumulating ping-pong balls for the NBA Draft lottery. Another key factor is contract extensions. Matt Buser of BuserSports.com made this point on our RotoRadio show last week about Shawn Marion (SF/PF, TOR) paying dividends down the stretch for his owners. I think the favorable schedule, plus the fact that he wants to cash-in this summer makes him a strong start to close out the season. On Tuesday the Raptors welcome the Hawks to Toronto. There’s a key matchup in Chicago with the Knicks in town. The Bulls are desperately trying to pass the Pistons and grab the seventh seed in the East, avoiding the dreaded first-round matchup with the Cavs. Over in Texas, the Orlando-Houston matchup should be a good one as long as Dwight Howard (C, ORL) and Yao Ming (C, HOU) are patrolling the paint. And finally, your fantasy fun matchup of the evening is in Sacramento with the Lakers in town. The last time those two teams met, they combined for 215 total points, and that was way back in December when the Kings actually cared about playing.    

Good Odds
It might be a ‘will he or won’t he’ situation the rest of the regular season for John Salmons (SG/SF, CHI). With that being said I think that Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG, CHI) should be at the top of your free agent list. Without Salmons in the lineup this past Tuesday night (March 31), Hinrich started at the small-forward position and posted 20 PTS, 7 REB, 7 AST, 2 3PT and 2 STL. Sure, his minutes took an uptick with Salmons sidelined, but even when he comes off the bench, Captain Kirk is averaging a notch over 25 minutes per game. Against the Knicks it’s sometimes a viable option to take those kind of minutes from a deadly three-point shooter… The Thunder already have shown they can hang with the Spurs, going 2-1 on the season series thus far. Last week (Mar. 31), the Thunder beat the Spurs with a nice 16 point and eight rebound performance from Nenad Krstic (PF/C, OKC). If you are in need of a center to fill in, Krstic can (at worst) be a reliable option to play 25 minutes and maybe repeat his 16 and 8 performance from last week.   

Bad Goods
I know it’s auditioning time for many teams, but to me some guys are just too risky to run out on the court. Take for example Chris Wilcox (PF/C, NYK) of the New York Knicks. He has seen two consecutive games of nearly 20 minutes of court-time. Still he posted only 6.5 PTS and 5.0 REB in those two games. Like I said, let’s not get too cute this week. Wilcox is owned in 22 percent of Y! leagues, but I have zero faith that he can make much happen against an athletic, shot-blocking defensive team like the Bulls.

Wednesday
We’re picking up steam heading into Wednesday night with 11 games on the schedule. The Knicks are in Detroit for what will be their fourth game in five nights. It’s Christmas all over again with the Wizards returning to Cleveland for the first time since December 25, after upsetting them in Washington this past Thursday (April 2). I wonder whether or not Gilbert Arenas (PG, WAS) wants any part of a road game in Cleveland after recently defeating the Cavs. New Orleans has a home game against the Phoenix Suns, which is good news for Chris Paul (PG, NOH) owners. By then, we might be talking about Goran Dragic (PG/SG, PHO) lining up against CP3 on defense. Though, it would be awesome to see Leandro Barbosa (PG/SG, PHO) chasing Paul around the court. Also, we’ve got two important playoff matchups between Portland-San Antonio and Utah-Dallas on Wednesday. Dallas would love to make up those 1.5 games on the Jazz to avoid a first-round matchup with the Lakers, while the Blazers just slid into the sixth seed and a matchup against the Spurs. Though I suppose any way you slice it, there are no favorable matchups in the Western Conference playoffs. 

Good Odds
It seems safe enough to take a flier on Anderson Varejao (PF/C, CLE) on Wednesday night. Not only was he ranked No. 30 overall last week in Yahoo!’s average stats rankings, but the matchup against the Wizards at home makes this decision that much easier. Over his last five Varejao is averaging 32 MIN, 12.6 PTS, 8.6 REB, 0.8 STL, 1.2 BLK and a 66.7 FG%. Finally he’s playing at the level we expected him to play, and finally he looks like a safe bet to produce consistently… Kevin Love (PF/C, MIN) is a virtual lock to play 30-plus minutes a night the rest of the way. He has averaged 15.6 points and 9.6 rebounds for the month of March. He still has limited availability (19 percent), and should be universally owned by active teams, especially with a Golden State matchup on Wednesday. 

Bad Goods
With the return of Manu Ginobili (SG, SAS), Roger Mason (PG/SG, SAS) has returned to his seemingly more natural role of coming off the bench. Over his last three Mason has only managed 26 MIN, 6.0 PTS, 4.7 REB, 3.0 AST, 0.7 STL and only 0.7 3PT on 14.3 percent shooting from beyond the arc. He is owned in 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues, yet I’m not sure that in an evening with 11 games on the schedule he should be starting on any team this deep into the playoffs.  

Thursday
There are three games lined up for Thursday night. The first, Philadelphia-Chicago, has some playoff implications. Once again, the Bulls are trying to fight their way out of a first round meeting with the Cavs. Philadelphia, on the other hand, would probably like to stand pat because I think they would rather take their chances against the bruised and battered Celtics and a rusty Kevin Garnett (PF, BOS) in the playoffs. The second game has Houston in Sacramento taking on the Kings. Any chance Blake Griffin can suit up for Sac-town in this one? Finally, the top two seeds out West, Denver-L.A. Lakers, top-off the evening.  

Good Odds
What a week Andres Nocioni (SF/PF, SAC) just had. I normally would be skeptical of slotting in Nocioni since he is such a streaky player, but it’s also hard not to notice that he is going all-out on a team whose season has long been over. His last three games returned 31 MIN, 18.7 PTS, 5.0 REB, 1.3 BLK, 60.6 FG% and a whopping 3.3 3PT. Look to cautiously role the dice on Nocioni with only six teams active. 

Bad Goods
Reggie Evans (PF, PHI) has found himself in the starting lineup with Thaddeus Young (SF/PF, PHI) out for the remainder of the regular season. I wouldn’t get too excited about Evans, especially with Marreese Speights (PF/C, PHI) right behind him as the perfect candidate to play some hefty minutes down the stretch. 

Mike Conley is a great add down the stretch and a must-add in keeper leagues.   Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Friday
It must be our lucky day! Thirteen games scheduled for Friday and good news for fantasy owners – all seven of the NBA’s worst defensive teams are in action. There should be plenty of points to go around on Friday. The Orlando Magic, one of the league’s most efficient three-point shooting teams, should enjoy bombing long-range treys at home against the Knicks. Phoenix is in Memphis in what may be the only time the Grizzlies cross the century-mark at home in their final three contests. Basketball is undoubtedly not quite back in Memphis. Houston gets a road game in Golden State. Given the questions surrounding the return of Andris Biedrins (C, GSW) and the lack of any true size in the paint for the Warriors, this should turn into a rebound fest for the Houston bigs. Sacramento heads to Los Angeles to take on the Clippers. The NBA is showing that it does in fact care. Thanks for the impending Calvin Booth (C, SAC) vs. DeAndre Jordan (C, LAC) matchup. The hot-ticket games on Friday include Miami-Boston, Utah-San Antonio, New Orleans-Dallas, and L.A. Lakers-Portland.

Good Odds
Chances are that as one of the two top teams in your league you aren’t looking to add anyone on Friday with 26 teams in action. So I will offer up two players to keep an eye on if you are in need of some production. First, look at Courtney Lee (SG/SF, ORL) who is widely available in Yahoo! leagues. He scored in double-figures in seven of his last eight games, has four games with at least two treys in his last five, and seven of his last eight with at least one steal. Lee could be a late-round option in deeper leagues next season, but let’s see if he can put it together on Friday against the Knicks. I have a feeling he might be able to help any desperate teams out there… Mike Conley (PG/SG, MEM) is already on my short list of sleeper picks for next season. He’s been great over the past two months and averaged 13.9 PTS, 5.1 AST, 1.1 STL, 91.9 FT% and even 1.4 3PT in March. I think he’s going to be undervalued next year, and I like him to have a big game on Friday against the Phoenix Suns.  

Bad Goods
Here’s a thought: with Houston playing on back-to-back nights and likely able to handle the Warriors with ease, is it possible that they’ll decide to give Yao Ming (C, HOU) or Ron Artest (SF/PF, HOU) some rest? This is purely speculation, but you have to keep your eyes and ears open next week. There are several opportunities for teams to rest key players in this the final week of the regular season.

Saturday and Sunday
Well this is a shame. No team plays on both Saturday and Sunday. In fact, four teams don’t play at all (ATL, HOU, DEN, WAS). However, that really isn’t much of a big deal considering that the week actually ends on Wednesday, April 15. The weekend splits with seven games on Saturday and six games on Sunday. Saturday once again boasts little excitement. The most note-worthy game is the one in Chicago between the Bobcats and the Bulls. As it stands, the Cats are only one game behind the Bulls in the race for the final playoff spot in the East. Utah and Portland, who are fighting for playoff positioning out West have relatively easy matchups on Saturday. The Jazz get the Warriors at home while the Blazers head to L.A. to take on the Clippers. On Sunday it’s a little bit of a different story. The early game has the Mavericks in New Orleans to take on the Hornets who are a little vulnerable at the moment having to rely on two young bigs in the low-post. Following that matchup is a key Eastern Conference contest between the Celtics and the Cavs. Cleveland still only has one home loss all season, but the C’s are hoping to change that with a key win on Sunday. This too could act as a playoff momentum builder. Should the Celts and Cavs meet in the Eastern Conference Finals, Boston can feel confident knowing that they were able to pickup at least one road victory in Cleveland while winning the season series three games to one.     

Good Odds
Kyle Korver (SG/SF, UTA) is still a good bet to knock down at least two treys per game. I would take the ‘over’ on those two three-pointers in Saturday’s game against the Warriors… Mario Chalmers (PG/SG, MIA) offers up 2.4 steals over his last five. He is still available in 38 percent of Yahoo! leagues and should offer a big pay-off against the Knicks… Rodney Carney (SG/SF, MIN) is going to get significant minutes the rest of the way for the Wolves. He’s playing 30.6 minutes over his last five averaging 14.4 points and an impressive 3.0 three-pointers. You should have no reservations about taking a flier on Carney on Saturday against the Suns. 

Bad Goods
Kevin Garnett (PF, BOS) is targeting this Sunday game for his return, so those of you who own him should be happy to see him suit up at least one more time for your squad. Well, not so fast. If he does return I think this will be a ‘shake the rust off’ game for KG. He’ll get some burn, but I don’t know how much he’ll actually contribute, especially on the road against Cleveland, the toughest defense in the league.   

Monday (April 13)
Heading down the home-stretch we pick up 12 more games on Monday. With plenty of close races in the West likely to come down to the final week of the season, it’s Houston and New Orleans who have the biggest beef with the schedule gods. Houston is in New Orleans to take on the Hornets in a key matchup, while the rest of the West is blessed with a few cakewalks. Denver has Sacramento at home, Dallas has Minnesota, Utah welcomes the Clippers to town, plus Portland is home to Oklahoma City and San Antonio has Golden State on the road. It looks like only either Houston or New Orleans will come out with an ‘L’ on Monday. In the East it’s likely the Chicago-Detroit and Charlotte-New Jersey games are the ones we’ll be keeping an eye on. I don’t think Charlotte is going down quietly.  

Good Odds
Again, I would stress that this deep into the playoffs you do two things –- go with what got you here and make sure you find out who is and isn’t going to play. With that being said, if you are looking for a young point guard to help you on Monday look at Mike Conley in a road game against the Suns… You also might want to watch Brendan Haywood (C, WAS) this week. He had 12 points and 10 rebounds last Thursday (April 2) against the Cavs in 35 minutes. If the Wizards have plans to give him minutes the rest of the way he might be a quick fix for teams in need of rebounds and blocked shots. The Monday matchup against the Raptors, who are 22nd in the league in rebounding, could yield nice numbers for the 7-footer. 

Bad Goods
Just one thing worth noting here is that I’m not sure I would trust a young big like Julian Wright (SF/PF, NOH) against Houston, the league’s fourth best rebounding team. In his last start against the Rockets (March 16), he shot 3-for-10 from the floor and scored only six points with three rebounds and zero blocks. He’s had a nice run over the past week, but he’s far from being a consistent big.

Tuesday (April 14)
The Tuesday schedule gives us only three games: Miami-Atlanta, Boston-Philadelphia, and Utah-L.A. Lakers. This one marks the final regular season game for both the Jazz and the Lakers. Keep an eye on playoff positioning because you may see some of your studs get a nice rest on Tuesday night if there is little left worth playing for.

Good Odds
Last time Mareesse Speights played a significant role against the Celtics (Dec. 23) he scored 16 points on 7-of-11 shooting with six rebounds and three blocks. Most of the teams active on Tuesday are pretty cut-and-dry, so this was the one nugget I could muster almost ten days in advance. 

Bad Goods
This is the perfect situation for Phil Jackson to sit his star players. That’s unfortunate for fantasy owners. With this being the final regular season game for the Lakers I would be concerned about Kobe Bryant (SG, LAL), Pau Gasol (PF/C, LAL), and Derek Fisher (PG, LAL). Check the morning papers before you bench any of these guys, but there is really no reason for the Zen Master to push them when the Lakers already have home-court advantaged wrapped up in the West.

Wednesday (April 15)
The final night of the regular season and we go out with a bang. With 14 games, every team aside from the aforementioned Jazz and Lakers are on the schedule. Again, it’s imperative to see who will and won’t play. That’s not necessarily something we can forecast nearly two weeks in advance. The season ends with a Phoenix-Golden State matchup. It’s just a little something for us to remember the 2008-09 season by. Other games of note are New Jersey-New York, Houston-Dallas, Charlotte-Orlando, Toronto-Chicago, New Orleans-San Antonio, and Denver-Portland.

Good Odds
As I said, it’s too soon to prognosticate the final night of the season, so I urge you to follow the wires and see who sits and who starts.

Bad Goods
You’re going to be disappointed come Wednesday because if your starters aren’t benched outright they’ll probably see some limited minutes. Again, if you are in play on the final day of the season, you’ve done your homework this year. So, I trust that you’ll make the right educated choices.
 

Add(s) of the Week: I would urge you to see if Mike Conley is still available. I think he’ll have a great stretch-run with two games against the Suns and six total during Championship Week. I also think Anderson Verajao and Kirk Hinrich will play pivotal roles for their respective teams.

Alright everyone, good luck this week. Thanks to everyone who has followed along and thanks for all the emails. We’ll do this again next season. Until then, be sure to see Brad Rysz and I debate the fantasy realness of players throughout the baseball season over at RotoExperts.com.

If you have any lineup questions, send Tom an email at Lorenzo@rotoexperts.com. Or follow along on Twitter @RotoLorenzo for more updates and daily advice, and post your line-up questions for immediate fantasy help.

Listen to Tom weekly on “RotoRadio: Hoops Edition,” the RotoExperts Fantasy Basketball show on BlogTalkRadio, live on Mondays at 8:00 PM ET.

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