People always want to be the hero. I could stand here in the name of insanity and fire away crazy predictions like, "The Titans will win the South."  No one except the folks in Nashville would believe it. Yet if I were to be correct with that one-in-a-thousand shot, everyone would be coming to me with questions next year.  Well, at least for that one year, until my next shot in the dark fails to happen and puts me on some gambler's hit list.

So I started thinking (which is always dangerous), and that caused me to light my kitchen on fire.  Regardless, what I was pondering was why I had been successful in my fantasy leagues in the past. I'm kind of lazy by nature.  I love watching football, but I didn't win by immediately leaping to the waiver wire to snag Aaron Stecker the minute Deuce McAllister goes down again.   Most times, my success was based on gleaning the idea that McAllister wasn't likely to stay healthy in the first place.  I learned that consistency is the key to football.  Forget about guessing how many touchdowns you think a guy will get.  Shaun MacDonald might get three in Week One.  Does that mean I'm going to draft him any higher?  No, because his opportunities are likely to be the same.  The likelihood he'll repeat last year in Detroit is probably 50-50.  And it is irrelevant whether more of fewer of his opportunities come near the end zone.  There are few exceptions to this rule.  Ask Mike Alstott owners how many leagues they won based on guessing he'd score all the TDs.  The only exceptions I've made to this rule were with T. J. Houshmandzadeh and Cris Carter.  All of their opportunities are/were related to the end zone.

Consistency and Opportunity: It's that simple.  That's right, C & O.  How many times does your running back get the ball?  How many times does your receiver get targeted?  So how is it that so many players are upgraded and downgraded on sheer hunches?  OK, most are educated hunches, but still.

That being said, watch me rail against those who are hedging too much on some of those hunches.  Here are my BIG FAT CLAIMS for 2008.

Denver Broncos: Assuming he gets on the field, coupled with the arrival of Darrell Jackson, a healthy Jay Cutler, and a lack of a proven running game, Brandon Marshall will be your league leader in receiving yards.

Cleveland Browns:  Sorry Derek Anderson, I do admire the Brownies and how they've rebuilt.  As a born and bred Steelers fan, I said that with my fingers and toes crossed and shoved down my throat, while throwing up. As our own Ben Ice so boldly made clear, second-year starting QBs don't cut it.  Ever. Anderson's second year as a starter (even though he has been in the league longer than two years) brings Brady Quinn back from the distant memory he was just a year ago.

Kansas City Chiefs: Herm Edwards will choke at some point this season, but Tony Gonzalez's Heimlich maneuver training won't save him. 

At 35 years old, Marvin Harrison will still be a starting WR in fantasy leagues. Photo Credit: johntrick2001

Indianapolis Colts: If Marvin Harrison has a knee that bends, he will be a top 20 receiver this year.  The formula for figuring this out is: Peyton Manning plus a veteran receiver who is a better route runner than 99 percent of WRs in the league, plus great hands and great body control, equals HUGE OUTPUT.  Of course, now it depends on whether Manning has a knee that bends, too.

Dallas Cowboys: Does it matter if you're in Wade Phillips' doghouse, when he's likely out the door?  Does it matter if Phillips likes you?  Jason Garrett is the one you need to worry about.  If Garrett hates you, are you done?  The Cowboys will implode from within, after starting the season 1-4.  Terrell Owens decides now is the time to call a press conference, so he can do his sit-ups while dangling from the flagpole atop roof.

Miami Dolphins: After barely sniffing .500 in the first half, Bill Parcells will be forced to start Chad Henne.

Philadelphia Eagles: Someone has to explain to me why some sites have such man-love for Kevin Curtis.  The guy finally posted a 70-plus reception season in his FIFTH year, yet he's been pimped like he has been the second coming for the last three years.  He's never going to be elite.  I see a decline this year, because typically, a player's first major injury hits at right around 30.  Oh man, look at that...Kevin is 30.

I GET MARRIED – Ha!  By far my biggest and fattest claim yet!

Atlanta Falcons:  They would have a 1,000 yard back on their hands, except behind this line and with his lack of extensive carries in the past, Michael Turner will be felled by injury.  Welcome to the starting job, Jerious Norwood.

New York Giants: Ahmad Bradshaw overtakes Derrick Ward as the RB2. When Brandon Jacobs sustains an injury, Bradshaw becomes Fast Willie Parker, part deux.  Instead of Jeremy Shockey's posse beating up some guy who sasses off to him, they smack Jeremy across the head for leaving a known contender to end up in Seattle.

New York Jets: Even the commissioner will dub this team the most boring to watch in the most boring division in 2008.

Green Bay Packers: Brett Favre can't get released, and won't garner any trades, so he stays, wins the job, gets hurt, and Aaron Rodgers takes the helm by mid-season anyway.  Oh, the irony.  If Favre quits, Rodgers gets injured, leaving Green Bay in the hands of....Brian Brohm and/or Matt Flynn.

Oakland Raiders: As if you couldn't see it happening before the mugging/beating/meet-the-guys-I-owe-a-lot-of-money-to-and-watch-them-take-it-out-on-my-butt travails of Javon Walker, he becomes the latest in a series of receivers to disappear into Oakland's pit of despair.

Seattle Seahawks: Moving from a trifecta to the football equivalent of the cycle by adding Jeremy Shockey, the Seahawks will fill all four scoring positions with guys likely to finish the season on the IR: RB Julius Jones, WR Nate Burleson, WR Deion Branch, and Shockey.  Hell, Matt Hasselbeck might take an injury just so he can fit in with these guys.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS:  That's right; I capitalized their name because I'm a homer.  Deal with it.  Willie Parker is being vastly underrated on draft boards. Take advantage, then watch him run for another 1,500 yards and seven TDs.

Houston Texans: Kubiak & Company (sounds like a sitcom name) continue to prove me right for saying that Mario Williams was the correct pick over Reggie Bush.  With their defense becoming scary good, the Texans will be in every game and will finish the year with a 9-7 record, for their first winning season ever.

I GET MARRIED? – I just had to see myself write that again. Whoa.

Contact Jon Phillips at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

Comments (0)

Subscribe to this comment's feed