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Scott Engel looks at who should be moving up or down your draft board.
Last week, I looked at players who were rising and falling in perceived value. This time, here are the players I personally believe to be worthy of moving up or down your draft boards. RISING Shaun Hill, QB, 49ers: The Sacramento Bee recently reported that Hill will split first-team reps with Alex Smith in training camp. I believe Hill is more poised and ready to take over Mike Martz's offense, even though Smith has better physical tools. Hill can at least be a solid fantasy backup, yet if both fail, don't be surprised to see J.T. O'Sullivan thrown into the mix. He has worked under Martz before. Trent Edwards, QB, Bills: The addition of rookie James Hardy and a committment to getting the ball more often to Marshawn Lynch as a pass-catcher will add more balance to the offense and allow Lee Evans to get open more often. Roscoe Parrish will also naturally fit in more comfortably as a third receiver, as defenses must respect Hardy, even if his production isn't great right away. Edwards will be more free to spread the ball around and throw downfield more, so he will at least be a quality fantasy backup. Matt Forte, RB, Bears: I view the Kevin Jones signing as further proof Chicago is committed to Forte. You'll often see teams bring in veterans as "insurance" for unproven running backs, and if the best the Bears can do is Jones, I am even more confident that Forte is set to shine as the No. 1 guy. I would take Forte as early as the third round in many drafts. The move also drops my estimation of Adrian Peterson as the natural handcuff, though. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers: Pittsburgh recently cut Najeh Davenport loose, another signal, I believe, that the team is quite high on the rookie. Not only do I think Mendenhall will get most of the goal-line carries this year, he'll also cut heavily into Willie Parker's regular workload quite a bit. Mendenhall will be an excellent flex player and third running back to draft. Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets: I believe Kellen Clemens will unseat Chad Pennington as the Jets starting QB. When he does, he'll develop a relationship with Cotchery as his favorite receiver, while Pennington favorite Laveranues Coles starts to decline in statistical production. Expect much-improved touchdown production from Cotchery in 2008. Devard Darling, WR, Chiefs: Opposing defenses are going to focus mostly on Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe in the passing game when they face the Chiefs. That will open up opportunities for Darling to step forward and prove himself, after showing some brief flashes of promise in Baltimore. He's a fine late-round sleeper. Steve Smith, WR, Giants: Eli Manning will prove his playoff success was no fluke. He'll look often to Smith in key situations, and the young wideout will make more plays than expected, as Amani Toomer starts to get open less often. Another fine late rounder. Robert Meachem, WR, Saints: His rookie year was forgettable, but if he has a good camp, watch out. Drew Brees is the type of quarterback that makes his receivers look even better than they are, and he fully takes advantage of their strengths. David Patten is a stopgap as the No. 2 receiver, and Devery Henderson doesn't know how to run in any direction other than straight ahead. The opportunity is there for the taking. FALLING Jason Campbell, QB, Redskins: No matter what positive spin you hear coming out of camp, it's going to take significant time for Campbell to adjust to Jim Zorn's version of the West Coast offense. Campbell could be cut from a lot of fantasy rosters early in the season. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers: Expectations may be too high for him in the new San Francisco offense. Gore doesn't have enough help on offense to produce those Marshall Faulk-type numbers that are being discussed. Hill will keep the offense somewhat respectable, but Gore could get overworked. Too much defensive attention could also lead to some very disappointing weeks, so I am not viewing him as an RB1. Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants: This is more of a warning to make sure you don't overrate him. His stock should drop from where currently is now. I see him going as early as the second round of some drafts. He is a regular injury risk because of his all-out running style and will likely share touches, so move him down on your cheat sheets if he is in your top 20 running backs. Nate Burleson, WR, Seahawks: Yes, the TD numbers were nice last season, and recent reports indicate Burleson is expected to be less of a presence in the return game. Yet Burleson often gets thrown off his game by physical defenders and is better suited to be a third receiver, rather than a starter. He's going to be a disappointment. Greg Jennings, WR, Packers: This downgrade applies only if Brett Favre doesn't return to Green Bay. Jennings was a product of the Favre downfield gun, and the two quickly developed a great on-field relationship. There will be significantly fewer big plays as Aaron Rodgers learns on the job. Bernard Berrian, WR, Vikings: Maybe he should have signed in Jacksonville. Berrian made a big mistake in going to a team that will run the ball a lot and has a very shaky quarterback situation. He will get double-teamed and bracketed often. If the rumors of Brett Favre coming to Minnesota become a reality, though, you will see Berrian move up to the first half of this article very soon. Owen Daniels, TE, Texans: Unless you play in a point-per-reception league, this guy was overrated to begin with. As Matt Schaub starts to spread the ball around and utilize other targets, Daniels will become less of a factor in the Houston passing game. Scott Engel joined RotoExperts.com in June of 2008 after four years at ESPN.com and eight years at CBS Sportsline. He can be reached at
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