JON WILLIAMS SPIN ON THE JEREMY SHOCKEY TRADE:

On July 21, 2008, the Saints traded two draft picks to the New York Giants for TE Jeremy Shockey. You can expect Shockey’s fantasy value to go through the roof. Head coach Sean Payton has been pressuring GM Mickey Loomis to acquire the dynamic TE for months now, and he wants Shockey to be a key part of the offense. If he stays healthy, Jeremy should set a new career high in receptions, as he’ll be targeted more then ever before. Shockey now looks to be a top five TE. He’ll also draw some defensive attention away from WR Marques Colston. A very good Saints offense just took another step in the right direction.

PROJECTED DEPTH CHART

Players listed in order of fantasy relevance. Recommended round to draft in standard 10 to 12-team leagues with 16 rounds in parentheses.

Quarterback: Drew Brees (3), Mark Brunell, Tyler Palko

Running Back: Reggie Bush (3), Deuce McAllister (9), Aaron Stecker, Pierre Thomas

Wide Receiver: Marques Colston (2), David Patten, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson

Tight End: Eric Johnson, Mark Campbell

Kicker: Taylor Mehlhaff (16), Martin Gramatica
 
NOTABLE PLAYER MOVES

Additions: QB Mark Brunell, CB Randall Gay, CB Aaron Glenn, OG Matt Lehr, DE Bobby McCray, LB Jonathan Vilma

Subtractions: C Jeff Faine, K Olindo Mare, LB Brian Simmons, CB Fred Thomas, DE Renaldo Wynn

The home of offensive fireworks! Photo Credit: JaseMan

2008 ROOKIES TO WATCH

Round One: DT Sedrick Ellis
Round Two: CB Tracy Porter
Round Three: DT DeMario Pressley

TOP POSITION BATTLES

Wide Receiver (WR2): David Patten vs. Robert Meachem vs. Devery Henderson
Place Kicker: Taylor Mehlhaff vs. Martin Gramatica

2008 SCHEDULE

Top fantasy matchups in bold

Sept. 7: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sept. 14: @ Washington Redskins
Sept. 21: @ Denver Broncos
Sept. 28: San Francisco 49ers
Oct. 6: Minnesota Vikings
Oct. 12: Oakland Raiders
Oct. 19: @ Carolina Panthers
Oct 26: San Diego Chargers
Nov. 2: BYE
Nov. 9: @ Atlanta Falcons
Nov. 16: @Kansas City Chiefs
Nov. 24: Green Bay Packers
Nov. 30: @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
         
FANTASY PLAYOFF MATCHUPS

Dec. 7: Atlanta Falcons
Dec. 11: @ Chicago Bears
Dec. 21: @ Detroit Lions
Dec 28: Carolina Panthers

ENGEL EYE ON: THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

There could be a lot of shifting in responsibilities at the running back position if things don't go as hoped. If New Orleans cannot keep Deuce McAllister on the field, you can't expect Reggie Bush to assume a full-time role, of course. He may get more short-yardage touches, though, and that could boost his value a bit. Pierre Thomas or Aaron Stecker would also have to step forward to assume a larger part in the offense if McAllister misses any time. Thomas would certainly be a fine free-agent pickup if asked to play more, but he is a boom or bust proposition, so don't forget about Stecker, either. He's tough and shifty and is a great emergency option for the Saints.

2008 FANTASY POSITIONAL OUTLOOKS

Drew Brees is the master director of a potent attack. Photo Credit: Guanako512

Quarterback:
Drew Brees is a top five quarterback, because he makes more passing attempts than any other QB in the league. In fact, Brees attempted 652 passes during the 2007 season, totaling more than any other quarterback in NFL history. This virtually guarantees that he will have solid fantasy value even if his yards per attempt falls significantly below his 7.03 career average. In a down year for the Saints, Brees still passed for 4,423 yards and 28 touchdowns. Imagine what the Saints’ quarterback might accomplish if the running backs were healthy and productive and the Saints managed to successfully develop a legitimate number two wide receiver.

The Saints spent many of their resources improving the defense (detailed below), which could result in a slightly more balanced offense, because they will not be trailing as often if their plan works. Nevertheless, owners can rest assured that Sean Payton’s offensive scheme will still lean heavily towards the pass; just project 600 or so attempts rather than 650.

Running Back:
The big question for the Saints is whether Deuce McAllister will be healthy this season. McAllister is attempting his second comeback from ACL surgery, which is something you do not want to hear about anyone on your roster, but especially not your running backs. That would be the bad news; the even worse news is that Deuce also had microfracture surgery on the other knee. The good news is that everything seems to be going well. McAllister may be limited when training camp begins, but he is on pace to start on opening day. McAllister is going undrafted in many leagues, primarily due to uncertainty about his health. The Saints, however, are counting on his strong return. If McAllister is healthy, he will be the starting running back. He was not a great runner before the injury in 2007. McAllister was averaging just 3.7 yards per carry and the offensive line underwent a significant change when center Jeff Faine departed via free agency. McAllister is a risky pick in fantasy leagues. Draft him only in a case of extreme desperation, because he looks much better as a late round flier.

Reggie Bush will be a large part of the offense, whether he is the primary runner or a change-of-pace back who also lines up in the slot. Bush declared early in the off-season that he was rededicating himself to football and would no longer succumb to the distractions that come with his fame. However, this vow did not include showing up and participating in off-season training activities. Bush is coming off a PCL tear in his knee, but the injury did not require surgery and should not be hampering him when training camp begins.  Last year, Bush was the primary runner after McAllister’s Week Three ACL injury. He was an extreme disappointment to the Saints and fantasy leaguers. The Saints had to pass more often than ever, as Bush averaged just 3.7 yards per carry, totaled an unimpressive 581 rushing yards, and scored only four touchdowns. Even his receiving stats were down; in 12 games, he caught 73 passes for a measly 417 receiving yards. The Saints need Bush to step it up and be a reliable lead runner when McAllister is out of the lineup, and they think he will. In most leagues, Bush is no better than a RB2, but in points per reception leagues, Bush has the potential to move into the first round.

Wide Receiver:
Marques Colston has been a stud wide receiver in the first two seasons of his NFL career. Things are lining up for this season his best yet. He could improve his numbers dramatically if the Saints can develop a receiving threat to play on the opposite side of the field. A quality complement would prevent defenses from keying on him and give him the space to make more big plays. In 2007, Colston collected a whopping 98 catches for 1,202 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. Even though this is a contract year for him, Colston does not seem to need the motivation to post quality numbers.

Robert Meachem is a former first-round pick who has been a disappointment thus far. In this spring’s mini-camp, Meachem suddenly started to look like the player the Saints thought they had drafted from Tennessee two years ago. Meachem has everything you need in a premier receiver, and it looks like he is about to break out. The Saints sure hope so, because the team sorely needs him to turn the corner. Meachem is a low cost, low risk, but high potential sleeper -- grab him at the end of your draft and reap the benefits.

David Patten and Devery Henderson each made their share of big plays for the Saints last year, but both have lacked the consistency needed to be the permanent starter next to Colston. Patten has benefited the most by the attention paid to Colston. He had a 14.7 YPC on 54 receptions last season. If Meachem flops, Patten is the most likely to start. Henderson has been a deep threat for the Saints but does not see enough action to have much fantasy value. Patten and Henderson are borderline picks at best as receiving depth.

Tight End:
Saints general manager Mickey Loomis offered the Giants a second round pick and safety Roman Harper for tight end Jeremy Shockey, but the Giants were apparently asking for much more. This indicates that the Saints are planning to throw more passes to the tight end to make up for their lack of depth at wide receiver. Eric Johnson is a strong receiver who once caught 82 passes for 825 receiving yards while with the San Francisco 49ers. His first season with the Saints was not nearly as productive, and he finished with just 48 catches and 378 receiving yards. Johnson is a good late round tight end pick.

Mark Campbell missed the entire 2007 season with a back injury. He is an excellent blocker, but he will not catch more than 20 passes this season unless Johnson is injured. Campbell is a better documentary film maker than he is a fantasy tight end.  

Kicker:
Martin Gramatica was a mid-season replacement for Olindo Mare, who converted just 10-of-17 kicks in the first four games of the 2007 season. The Saints were satisfied with Gramatica’s accuracy, but they think rookie Taylor Mehlhaff can be just as accurate and reach greater distances on kickoffs.

Defense/Special Teams:
The Saints went all out to improve on their pathetic 2007 defense. If linebacker Jonathan Vilma’s recovery from knee surgery goes well, he should be the defensive playmaker that the Saints really need. Vilma was a stud for the Jets before Eric Mangini arrived and changed from the 4-3 to the 3-4 defense. In the 4-3, Vilma should return to his more productive performance level of the pre-Mangini years. Free agent defensive end Bobby McCray and first round draft pick Sedrick Ellis should do great things for the pass rush. The improved pass rush should help to hide some of the mediocrity in the defensive backfield. The Saints also added former Patriot cornerback Randall Gay. While Gay is not great, he and fellow signee Aaron Glenn should significantly improve the cornerback positions. The Saints were the 11th-ranked defense in 2006, and it is not unreasonable to predict a rebound to a similar level.

Offensive Line:
Losing center Jeff Faine hurts, as he was a key cog in this offensive line. The team is hoping that Jonathan Goodwin, who replaced Faine in Weeks Eight and Nine last year, can duplicate the nice fill-in work he delivered, but on a full time basis, as the offense rushed for 200 yards and only allowed one lone sack in those two games combined.  Overall in 2007, this solid line did a great job of protecting Brees but struggled to open holes for the running backs, though poor performances by Bush and McAllister are certainly a big part of the problem. The Saints will use Mark Campbell as a blocker more often in running plays, which should help. There's hope for the line, but a couple of changes will need to line up well for everything to come off without a hitch this year.

Do you have any questions, comments, or insults to toss Jon’s way?  Email him at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it !

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