Home arrow BASEBALL arrow Baseball Articles arrow Root's Rants arrow FANTASY BASEBALL: NEW KIDS ON THE DIAMOND, Freak of Nature
FANTASY BASEBALL: NEW KIDS ON THE DIAMOND, Freak of Nature Print
Written by Bill Root, RotoExperts.com Staff Writer   

Bill Root analyzes phenom Stephen Strasburg and other youngsters.

 

You know a kid has sick stuff when he is compared to a fictional pitcher who could allegedly throw 168 mph. Yes, agent Scott Boras and others have likened San Diego State University right-hander Stephen Strasburg to fictional Mets prospect Sidd Finch -- the subject of a well-known article and April Fool's Day hoax published by Sports Illustrated in 1985. Strasburg's head coach Tony Gwynn calls the phenom a “freak,” and I think he knows a little something about pitchers. The boy wonder will be the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming draft, and he’ll soon be a cornerstone of the Nationals' rotation -- assuming they sign him to the record contract Boras is seeking.

Is Strasburg the real deal? In 102 innings pitched this year, he has a 1.24 earned run average, 180 strikeouts, 19 walks, and .164 Batting Average Against. Ridiculous. Strasburg has been consistently clocked at triple digits on the radar gun, and also has a nasty slider and developing changeup in his arsenal. The flame-thrower's bread and butter pitches are his fastball and slider, and he has tremendous movement on both. Further, as evidenced by his walk total, he has pinpoint control. Many scouts say Strasburg is the best pitching prospect ever, and it’s evident the kid has the wicked stuff and competitive fire to be a superstar.

Fernando Martinez just isn't worth the fantasy prospect hype. Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Strasburg is going to be a special fantasy talent. Book it. I can't imagine how good he’ll be when he masters his change-up. The only thing that can hold him back is an injury (and he does have a violent delivery – he appears to throw his entire body at the plate). Honestly, commishes in keeper leagues better be on the lookout for owners tanking this year in order to get their grubby paws on this kid. Shoot, if I wasn’t so darn ethical, I might consider it myself just to plant this kid in my fantasy rotations for the next decade. Geez, I wish I wasn't raised with fantasy values.

Well, they all can't be Stephen Strasburg, but let's take our weekly look at some young bloods that could be  future pieces of your fantasy championship puzzle. By the way, Strasburg needs a sweet nickname, so let's hear some suggestions. Nicknames I have heard such as "The Anchorman" and "The Majority Whip" just aren't working for me.

NEWBIES

Sean West (SP, FLA)

The Ricky Nolasco demotion was a blessing in disguise to his willfully blind owners. Shoot, I’m such a Nolasco fan, I probably would have kept him in my fantasy rotations until July, even if he continued to get hammered. Thank you, Fredi Gonzalez. If you are a regular "New Kids" reader, you knew Sean West would join the Marlins' rotation this year. Last year in Single-A, West posted a 2.41 ERA and held opposing batters to a .224 BAA. However, West struggled a bit with his control (90:62 strikeout to walk ratio in 100.2 IP). The 6-8, 200-pound lefty was off to a shaky start at Double-A this year with a 4.85 ERA and 4.71 walks per nine innings rate. Granted, the BB/9 rate was an improvement over the 7.20 BB/9 at High-A last year, but this kid just wasn't quite ready for the majors. Undoubtedly, West's 10.29 strikeouts per nine innings rate hints at his unlimited upside. Nolasco will work out his issues with fastball command in the minors and I expect his luck to change (.402 Batting Average on Balls in Play) once he returns. At that point, West could still keep his spot in the rotation if he performs well because the Marlins have openings; but I have serious doubts given that his control is a work in progress. West is worth a risk in NL-only leagues if you have roster space, but you can ignore him in mixed leagues.  

Ross Detwiler (SP, WAS)

The Nationals' front office is simply ecstatic when Daniel Cabrera is not pitching.  So, it doesn't take much to impress if you are another Nats pitcher. After a rough year in High-A in 2008 (4.86 ERA), Detwiler was impressing at Double-A this year with a 2.96 ERA, 9.22 K/9 rate, and 3.29 BB/9 rate. The 2007 first-rounder was called up last Monday to merely make a spot start. However, based on two solid performances and the state of the Nats' staff (i.e. Cabrera to the bullpen and the injury to Scott Olsen), Detwiler has earned at least a temporary spot in the rotation. The kid has simply continued to build upon his minor league success this year, and he has an opportunity to shine in such a pathetic rotation. As a seasoned college pitcher, Detwiler has the stuff and maturity to stay, but I think he’ll experience significant growing pains and very inconsistent performances, because he still has some mechanical issues to iron out. Detwiler is a nice grab-and-stash prospect in NL-only leagues if you have room. In keeper leagues, jump all over this kid.

Jesus Guzman (1B, SFO)

Seriously, when you see a guy like Travis Ishikawa get a job as a starting first baseman in the majors, don't you think you could be a standout general manager? Guzman was called up last week when the Giants had their first interleague series. Giants' GM Brian Sabean has already announced that Ishikawa will start losing playing time to Guzman. Mr. Sabean, nice move, now find a way to get Nate Schierholtz some playing time since it’s well-deserved. Guzman is undervalued in fantasy circles because he plays horrific defense. But as long as he’s getting playing time, fantasy owners don't care if he bobbles sacrifice bunts by four-year olds. The relevant information is Guzman is a natural born hitter. He hit .349, with a 404 on-base percentage and 17 home runs in the minors last year.  Guzman was on a tear again at Triple-A this year with a .363 BA, 6 HRs and a .592 slugging percentage when he was promoted. Guzman has the stroke to run away with the first base job. Acquire Guzman in NL-only leagues; monitor him in mixed leagues.

Billy Buckner (SP, ARZ)

It’s "Arizona Idol" for the fifth spot in the Diamondbacks' rotation, and Buckner's shot to perform comes after Bryan Augenstein was sub-par in two starts. Buckner has shuffled between starting and relief roles -- and the major and minor leagues -- since last year. He’s suited for a starting role because he has so many pitches in his repertoire, even Alex Rodriguez couldn't tip them all. Buckner's signature pitch is a nasty curve, but his sinker is the key to his recent success. Buckner was promoted after posting a 3.81 ERA and 1.71 groundout/airout ratio at Triple-A. He had a solid debut start last week: 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Ks, 2 BBs against Oakland. But let's not kid ourselves -- it was Oakland. He’s a starter to monitor and use in NL-only leagues with the right match-ups.

Fernando Martinez (OF, NYM)

I admit it; I’ve always thought this kid was nothing more than a product of New York media hype, even though he was playing at advanced levels for his age. Well, with Ryan Church  on the disabled list, Martinez made his major league debut on Tuesday. His promotion won't change my mind. Martinez was hitting .294, with 7 HRs, and a .341 OBP at Triple-A. Not bad. But his walk-to-strikeout rate is 0.38 and has consistently been below 0.40 in his minor-league career. The young outfielder needs to learn how to take a walk or major league pitchers are going to abuse him. Further, Martinez doesn't steal bases and has inconsistent power at best. Finally, Martinez has never hit above .300 in a full minor-league season. He doesn't do anything that’ll help win you a fantasy championship. I see a kid being rushed to justify his contract and the hype.

ON THE VERGE

 

Eric Young Jr. (2B, COL) 

E-Y Jr. has ridiculous speed and started to show some plate discipline last year in both the minors (.391 OBP) and Arizona Fall League. The AFL was Young's coming-out party; he led the fall league in batting average (.430) and stolen bases (20). To top it off, he also hit five bombs. Young has gotten off to a pedestrian start at Triple-A this year. The speedster is hitting .281 and only has a .349 OBP. However, he has swiped 24 bases in 38 games. As a speed demon and a pesky hitter, Young will take full advantage of all of the open spaces in Coors Field. The Rockies need a spark on offense and Young will provide it in the near future. He will be a valuable utility player for by July and could lock himself in as the starting second baseman if he gets off to a hot start. This dude will be a nice source of steals for fantasy owners.

Will Inman (SP, SDG)

Inman is an under-the-radar prospect, and I’m training my Doppler on any solid pitching prospect who’s going to take the mound at Petco Park. Inman was fantastic at Double-A this year with a 3.05 ERA, 36:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .202 BAA. The 22-year-old right-hander was just promoted to Triple-A, and he was solid in his first start: 5.2 IP, 2 ERs, 9 Ks, and 2 BBs. Inman has consistently delivered a strikeout rate of over a batter per inning in his career. Sign me up -- despite the lack of publicity. This kid may take Jake Peavy's spot in the rotation when he’s finally traded.

David Hernandez (SP, BAL) 

This is another kid who’s not getting enough hype. I gave a regular reader a tip on this guy last week during an e-mail exchange. He’s already thanked me. You will later. Specifically, he stated: "It's a good thing you brought up David Hernandez. Talk about a great start. Where do I start? K/9 of 11.5, K/BB of 3.53 . . . while his ERA is 3.50 and his BABIP is .327. Whoa!! His stats have room to get even better." I couldn't have said it better myself. Hernandez improved upon those stats last week with an incredible performance: 7.1 IP, 3 Hs, 0 ER, 14 Ks, and 0 BBs. Wow. There is plenty of space for a talent like Hernandez in the Orioles' rotation. Just like Chris Tillman, Hernandez should be in the bigs now and going through his learning curve. I should look at the bright side -- at least Adam Eaton was released.

FUTURE FANTASY STUDS 

Mike Stanton (OF, FLA)

This kid is a beast. He hit .293 with 39 HRs and a .611 SLG in Low-A last year. The only negative last year were his strikeouts (153:58 K/BB rate). Stanton is putting up impressive numbers this year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League at High-A. The 6'5", 205 lb outfielder is hitting .290 with 8 HRs and a .538 SLG. In addition, he has shown better plate discipline with a 36:20 K/BB ratio. This kid could be Hanley Ramirez's personal protection in the next year or so.    

Jesus Montero (C, NYY)

As fantasy owners, we’re always looking for the next offensive weapon at catcher because it’s such a premium position. Again, while there are questions about Montero's defense, that doesn't win fantasy baseball championships. There are simply no questions regarding Montero's bat. As an 18-year-old, he hit .326 with 17 HRs in Low-A last year. He’s hitting even better this year at High-A with a .324 BA, 5 HRs, and a .527 SLG. The Yanks are determined to keep this kid at catcher if possible. This backstop is a fantasy keeper.  

All statistics as of May 24, 2009.

Follow RotoExperts on Twitter

Shoot Bill Root an e-mail at broot@rotoexperts.com if you want to discuss any fantasy prospects.   

Comments (0)add comment

Write comment
To leave a comment, you must be logged in. Please register if you do not have an account yet.

busy