PROJECTED DEPTH CHART

Players listed in order of fantasy relevance. Recommended round to draft in standard 10 to 12-team leagues with 16 rounds in parentheses.

Quarterback: Matt Ryan, Chris Redman, Joey Harrington

Running Back: Michael Turner (4), Jerious Norwood (9)

Wide Receiver: Roddy White (7), Laurent Robinson (15), Michael Jenkins, Joe Horn

Tight End: Ben Hartsock

Kicker: Jason Elam

NOTABLE PLAYER MOVES

Additions: RB Michael Turner, TE Ben Hartsock, K Jason Elam,
Subtractions: QB Byron Leftwich, TE Alge Crumpler, K Morten Andersen, RB Warrick Dunn, CB DeAngelo Hall

2008 ROOKIES TO WATCH

Round One: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College

TOP POSITION BATTLE

Starting QB:  Matt Ryan vs. Chris Redman vs. Joey Harrington

The Ghosts of Michael Vick may soon be vanquished from this building. Photo Credit: AUtiger

2008 SCHEDULE

Top matchups in bold

Sept. 7: Detroit
Sept. 14: at Tampa Bay
Sept. 21: Kansas City
Sept. 28: at Carolina
Oct. 5:  at Green Bay
Oct. 12: Chicago
Oct. 19: BYE
Oct 26: at Philadelphia
Nov. 2: at Oakland
Nov. 9: New Orleans
Nov. 16: Denver
Nov. 23: Carolina
Dec. 1: at San Diego
FANTASY PLAYOFF MATCHUPS
Dec. 7: at New Orleans
Dec. 14: Tampa Bay
Dec. 21: at Minnesota
Dec 28: St. Louis

ENGEL EYE ON: THE ATLANTA FALCONS

Michael Turner will surely face a lot of defensive attention in his first season with the Falcons. He may start slowly, as defenses stack their fronts against the running game and Matt Ryan struggles during the first half of the season as a starter. Turner may have to work hard to post respectable yardage totals during the first half of the schedule. Yet when Ryan becomes a better game manager later in the season, Turner will have some of his best games of the season. Turner will be a good buy-low candidate after six or so games in '08.

2008 FANTASY POSITIONAL OUTLOOKS

Quarterback:
In 2007, the Falcons went with the dreaded quarterback-by-committee approach, with Byron Leftwich, Joey Harrington, and Chris Redman starting at various points of the season.  For 2008, Atlanta shuffled the deck, discarded Leftwich, and drafted Matt Ryan out of Boston College.  Ryan is signed and poised to be the number one quarterback.  His competition is Chris Redman and the oft-maligned Joey Harrington, and the only compelling reason not to have Ryan start this season is to avoid the fate that befell both Tim Couch and David Carr.  A poor team with a poor offensive line drafted a guy as its franchise quarterback, will start him in the rookie year, and will watch Ryan get the stuffing get beat out of him week after week.  This is akin to flushing money down the toilet.  The offensive line gave up 47 sacks last year, which was the seventh most in the league. While the Falcons drafted OT Sam Baker out of USC to address that issue heading into 2008, it won’t be enough to ensure that Ryan will remain upright.  Ryan has the ideal size for a quarterback, measuring 6-4 and weighing 218 pounds.  Ryan has excellent mechanics, is a smart quarterback, and ran a similar West Coast-style offense while at Boston College.  The negatives on Ryan are that his accuracy is spotty, especially on deep balls, and that he isn’t especially quick or fast. 

There is no need to draft any of these three quarterbacks in your fantasy draft.  But watch Matt Ryan.  If he is able to adjust to the pro game, he could have value late in the season.  The Falcons will probably be trailing more often than not, which suggests that the offense will be forced to throw more.

Michael Turner is finally ready to show fantasy players what he can do on a regular basis. Photo Credit: deathdealer_666

Running Back:
The Falcons went out and signed the best free-agent running back, Michael Turner, to a six-year contract.  He will be the opening day starter and should get most of the carries for Atlanta.  Turner is a small but powerful back, as he measures 5-10 and weighs 237 pounds.  Turner has good speed despite his size, and while he is not truly explosive, he can certainly kick it into another gear when he’s in the open field.  Turner is also a decent receiver out of the backfield and could see a lot of passes come his way, especially if Ryan is at the helm, as young quarterbacks tend to rely on their safety valve.  After spending his first four seasons backing up LaDainian Tomlinson, this will be Turner’s first chance to be the featured back, so expect him to make the most of it.  Start looking at Turner in the fourth round of your fantasy draft as a bottom-tier RB2.  Vying for carries in Atlanta will be third-year pro Jerious Norwood.  In his first two seasons, Norwood has accumulated 202 career rushing attempts, averaging an amazing 6.2 yards per carry.  Jerious has that explosiveness that Turner doesn’t have, and he is quite capable in the passing game as well.  The one knock on Norwood is that he isn’t a physical back and is likely to get pulled in short-yardage situations, especially near the end zone.  While Norwood will start the year as the backup, he should see a decent amount of carries each game. If Turner falters, Norwood could step in easily.  Look to target Norwood in the ninth round of your draft this year.  The third-string back in Atlanta is Jason Snelling.  Snelling will most likely be used in short-yardage situations and has no fantasy value.
 
Wide Receiver:
Totals of 83 receptions, 1,202 yards, six touchdowns...those are pretty good number for a wide receiver.  That's even better numbers for a player who didn’t know which quarterback would start on a weekly basis. While Roddy White is an athletic and speedy receiver, he doesn’t trust his own skills and athleticism, and he lacks decisiveness.  This has led to poor route-running and repeated drops of passes he should have no problem reeling in.  However, since he was able to overcome those flaws in 2007 (with three different quarterbacks throwing to him nonetheless), I wouldn’t be terribly concerned about his production in 2008.  Pencil White in for similar numbers this year, and start looking at him in the seventh round as a low-end WR2 for your fantasy squad.  Coming into training camp, Joe Horn is tentatively listed as the other starter opposite Roddy White, but at 36 years old, Horn’s best days are behind him. He doesn’t really have a place on an Atlanta team that is trying to rebuild.  Since Horn has no fantasy value, he simply shouldn’t be drafted.  The player most likely to step up and claim the starting gig opposite White is second-year man Laurent Robinson.  Robinson has excellent speed, but is still very raw.  Watch his progress during training camp, and if he looks good in winning that starting job, he would be worth a late flier in your draft.  Rounding out the receiving corps for the Falcons are veteran Michael Jenkins and rookie Harry Douglas.  Neither Jenkins nor Douglas should play any meaningful minutes this season, and both players should be avoided on draft day.

Tight End:
With the Alge Crumpler era behind them, the Falcons signed Ben Hartsock in the off-season to be their starting tight end.  While Crumpler was one of the main options in the passing game during his tenure, Hartsock will be asked to be an extra blocker on most plays.  He is an excellent blocker but not much of a receiving threat, as he has only caught 24 passes in four years.  Hartsock’s backup is Martrez Milner.  You definitely need to look elsewhere for tight end help, as the fantasy cupboard is bare in Atlanta.

Kicker:
Even the kicking game wasn’t immune from the Falcons’ revolving door this offseason.  Atlanta parted ways with soon-to-be 48-year old Morten Andersen and once again went with youth by signing 38-year old Jason Elam, the long-time Denver Bronco.  Elam had a very good year in 2007, connecting on 27-of-31 field goals. He did well from long distance as well, nailing one-of-two from 50 yards and beyond and 9-of-12 from 40-49 yards.  He also connected on all 33 of his extra point attempts.  Elam’s fantasy value really takes a hit by his moving from Denver to Atlanta.  The Falcons scored 61 fewer points than the Broncos in 2007, and there is no reason to expect that Atlanta will become an offensive juggernaut this year.  Don’t draft Elam, but keep your eye on him during the season in case the Falcons offense does begin to click.

Defense/Special Teams:
In 2007, the Falcons finished 29th in the league in team defense, giving up 355.5 yards per game.  They also finished 29th in points allowed with an average of 25.9 per game.  Atlanta was equally poor at stopping the run and the pass, finishing 26th against the run (127.1 yards per game) and 23rd against the pass (228.4 yards per game).  Interestingly, the Falcons actually created more turnovers than they lost, finishing the season at plus-four. 

The problem was that defensive line struggled to pressure opposing quarterbacks, and the team had only 25 sacks all season, finishing 30th in the league.  Longtime vet John Abraham battled injuries. Their 2007 number one pick, Jamaal Anderson, was unable to record a sack.  At linebacker, the strength is on the outside: Keith Brooking is one of the most solid LBs in the league, and Michael Boley is an emerging star.  The Falcons secondary is another story.  Atlanta lost arguably their best player in the off-season, when CB DeAngelo Hall went to the Raiders. They now find themselves facing the real possibility of starting two very young players at the corners.  Second year man Chris Houston has locked down one of the corner spots, and the Falcons will address the other starting corner slot with either David Irons, another second year player, or Von Hutchins, a five year veteran.  The safety spots are manned by longtime veterans Lawyer Milloy and Erik Coleman.  The Atlanta defense will struggle to prevent opposing teams from entering the end zone again this year and should remain undrafted for fantasy purposes.

Offensive Line:
The offensive line was equally inept last year, allowing 47 sacks in the passing game and only mustering 95.0 rushing yards per game.  That number is almost half as much as the team averaged in 2006, when they logged 183.7 yards per game.  In fact, from 2004-2006, the Falcons were the number rushing one team in the league.  Obviously, a lot of that had to do with Michael Vick’s running ability, but that is still a steep decline.  While most of the offensive line returns from last year, the Falcons still drafted OT Sam Baker out of USC with their second first-round selection and have penciled him in as the team’s new left tackle.  While the running game should improve, do not expect a return to past glory this season.  The protection in the passing game will be interesting to watch, especially if rookie Ryan gets the nod.  Young quarterbacks normally hold on to the ball too long and get sacked frequently.  Overall, don’t expect the Atlanta offense to put up much better numbers than they did in 2007.

Matt is amazed at Atlanta’s obsession with naming every other road in the city Peachtree or some variation of it.  That is either the most brilliant or the most bizarre decision ever for city planners.  When Matt isn’t puzzling over peach trees, he’s dropping some knowledge at “Mother Lode or Fool’s Gold” every Saturday here at RotoExperts.com.  Got a question or comment?  E-mail Matt at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

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