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Scott Engel polls the RotoExperts to analyze how Peyton Manning's recent knee surgery will affect his fantasy value.
Each week, we gather the RotoExperts team of analysts together to ask many of them a very important fantasy football question. We welcome your comments and responses also. Send them to roundtable moderator Scott Engel at
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This week's question: How does Peyton Manning's surgery affect his fantasy draft value?
Last week, Peyton Manning, who has never missed a game in his career, underwent a procedure to remove an infected bursa sac from his left knee. He should be out another three-to-five weeks, which would cause him to miss the bulk of training camp and possibly most of Indianapolis' preseason games. The timetable doesn't put Manning at risk to miss the regular season opener on September 7, but will the surgery affect his fantasy outlook when he is ready to play? The RotoExperts team weighs in with their opinions and analysis. Christopher Bangs
The injury should not affect his draft value at all, as it will cause Manning to miss only training camp and some (worst-case all) of the pre-season games. There is little question that Manning will be ready and able to go for the regular season opener. Even if the effects of the injury somehow linger to the beginning of the regular season, considering that his first three games are against teams with weak pass defenses (Bears, Vikings, and Jaguars) followed by the bye in Week Four, Manning's numbers should remain strong, and he should be healthy for the majority of the season. The injury, however, may scare some owners into passing over him, allowing him to slip into the late first or (gasp) early second round. If Manning slips in your draft, be ready to pounce. Jonathan Phillips
While Manning's knee surgery was a simple arthroscopy procedure, any time there is an operation on a weight-bearing joint, you increase the risk for problems. This is also Manning's left leg, or plant leg, for when he throws. Certainly, the advent of new procedures and rehabilitation methods has improved recovery times immensely. However, each person responds differently to surgery, anesthesia, and trauma on the body. Remember that Ben Roethlisberger had facial surgery and an appendectomy a couple of years ago, and his next season was a disaster. Yet none of those surgeries had to do with his arms or legs. Some would argue that Roethlisberger had to get back his mental toughness, and post-appendectomy, he undoubtedly was a moment slower than everyone else. Carson Palmer's numbers in the 2006 season may have represented a return to normalcy after knee ligament replacement, but his sack percentage doubled to 6.5 percent (he was sacked 36 times) -- the highest of his career. Clearly his mobility was limited, particularly early in the year. Manning is likely to miss all of training camp. Yes, this will save his body some wear and tear, but it will also likely cause some timing issues for him. Also, he's already fairly immobile, and this will just add to that problem. I expect his first few weeks to be a little shaky. If you're willing to have an early round pick that may be unsteady the first two weeks of the season, then go for it. However, I say he's now second round material. After those first few games, I expect him to return the same old Peyton that has torched defenses for the past 10 years.  |
Kyle Stack
What’s so great about sports coverage in 2008 is that one can become more knowledgeable about any player or team in any sport just by trolling internet web sites and blogs or cruising through TV channels. Unfortunately, the never-ending stream of news and opinions often leads to over-analysis. In the case of Peyton Manning and the infected bursa sac in his left knee, which led to surgery and a six-week rehabilitation, there will be extreme fantasy over-analysis. If Manning were young, then I would worry about his ability to play sharp football at the beginning of the regular season without accruing any reps in training camp or the preseason. However, the 10-year vet is a finely tuned machine. He’s still young enough, at age 32, to recuperate quickly from an injury, and I expect that the Colts’ Week Four bye should give him enough rest after the first three games to let him sport his usually fantastic numbers for the remainder of the season. Manning is in his prime, so value him as favorably as you have the past few seasons. Mark Strausberg
The impact is exactly the same as the number of drafts in which I'll be picking Jim Sorgi—Zero, Zed, Zilch. Need any more "Z"s representing nothing? All reports say he should be absolutely fine to start the season. Even if he's still a little scared to cut or move, it is not like I was drafting Manning for his mobility and running ability. Now if the procedure was on his elbow, I'd be a little more concerned. If anything, this helps, because you might be able to scare your league mates away from him…but only if they're paranoid. Tommy Landry
This is the first year in a long time when I'll consider not taking a RB in the first round, because I got burned the past two years in my most important league by not one, but TWO top-two-round busts in each year. Expecting to continue my trend of late picks in round one, I was figuring Manning or Randy Moss would be my guy. This surgery changes that stance. For my own money, I won't touch Manning in the first round just in case this injury hampers his performance well into the regular season. Maybe it was that Gilbert Arenas pick in Fantasy NBA last season that did it to me, but I won't take damaged goods that early, even elite-level guys. Now, if he's sitting there at the 15th or 16th pick, and I'm on the clock with Reggie Wayne and all the decent RBs gone, I'll be looking at a QB with stud potential. What kind of RB will be there? It will be guys with little more upside than what I'll see in the next round. Do I want Terrell Owens? Talk about risk/reward--I'll take my chances on Peyton. Matt Wirkiowski
His surgery doesn't affect his draft value at all. Even if he misses most of training camp, I don't think it's that big of a deal. He has the same weapons (Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez, Joseph Addai) as last year - and that offense runs on automatic pilot - so it shouldn't take long to get the timing down. The bottom line is that he is still the No. 2 QB on the board and a surefire first-rounder who should be chosen no later than sixth overall. Mike Gilbert
Relative to other potential first round picks, the injury slightly affects Manning's status. I would downgrade him from a mid-first-rounder to a borderline first rounder. That would bump up guys like Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai, Randy Moss, and possibly even Marshawn Lynch ahead of Manning. Of course, I've never been particularly high on drafting QBs in the first round anyway. Relative to other QBs though, his status doesn't change at all. Manning and Tom Brady are still the cream of the crop, and there's enough of a gulf between them and the next tier of QBs, including guys like Tony Romo and Drew Brees, to justify the slight risk that Manning and his disgusting-sounding bursa sac pose. He'll likely do everything in his power to be ready for the season opener against the Bears. And if he were to miss a game, he'd probably decide to go on a tear and throw 51 TD passes to re-take the single season mark, just to spite his arch nemesis, Brady. Bradley Rysz
Hearing the word "surgery" associated with a fantasy owner's player normally results in an expletive-laced tirade that involves alcohol, Advil, and a trip to the free agent list. When the word "surgery" is used in reference to Peyton Manning, panic hits unprecedented levels. Manning is as consistent as it gets (16 games played for 10 consecutive seasons) and has a great offensive line to protect him. All reports indicate that he will be ready to go by Week One. News of the injury has seen Manning's stock drop in fantasy drafts in all formats. If you are looking for a QB and Manning is still on the board late in the second round, jump on that opportunity. I'd still rank him the No. 2 quarterback. Matthew Greber
It doesn't affect his draft value at all, unless you somehow ranked Manning above Tom Brady. I have Brady first before Manning, as many others do, and this news doesn't change my rankings, mainly because the distance between these two guys and the next tier of quarterbacks is really, really large. No one is so close at No. 3 to move past Manning in the rankings. If you had placed Manning first - which isn't a totally crazy move - then I think you'd now have to flip back to Brady being the first QB off the board. What this may change is how early Peyton gets taken - he'll still be the second QB to go, but it could easily be a few picks later, even a round later depending on how important QBs are to your league. The scary thing here is that you won't learn anything during the preseason. You weren't going to get to see him play much when you thought he was healthy, but it would be nice if he could test things out in a game that didn't matter. But, that's unlikely to happen. So, if you want Manning, you're going to have to suck it up and take him largely where you had planned to before hearing news of the surgery. Ben Ice
Peyton Manning might still be the No. 2 ranked Fantasy QB, but he is likely to disappoint early in the season, similar to his output last year when he was a huge letdown for fantasy owners. No matter how you slice it, surgery affects any player both physically and mentally. Confidence and swagger are critical components of any player’s makeup, and as they get older and see their peers retiring due to age and injury, thoughts of their own eventual decline become more pronounced. My philosophy on injuries of this nature is pretty simple. When a guy’s wheel breaks, he doesn’t ever come back right away thinking that it is good as new. There will be lingering doubts and concerns. The player will want to make sure not to do anything to re-injure that body part, and only time will provide the level of confidence necessary to return to his former production level. In the end, Manning slips a notch or two in my rankings, with this caveat: if he progresses well, expect his season to get stronger as his confidence grows. If he starts out poorly, but isn’t hurting physically, I’d target him as an early-to-mid season acquisition to help me in the stretch run. SUMMARY
Many different viewpoints here that made me think from various angles (no pun intended, but it obviously works), but in the end, I go with those who aren’t really worried about Manning. From all reports, this procedure is not expected to adversely affect Manning in a major way, and with all due respect to Mr. Phillips, I don't think you can put it on the same scale as the Roethlisberger and Palmer examples. Manning is too experienced and too effective to have it throw off his timing in a major way, so I am board with those who believe he can simply slide right back in and be comfortable with his great supporting cast. I would still take Manning in the top five overall. He'll have some time before the season begins to get warmed up and back into form, and it's not like would have seen much of him during the preseason, anyway. Email Scott Engel with questions for the Fantasy Roundtable at
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