Who doesn't love the NBA Draft? Even sports fans who are lukewarm on the nation's professional ballers, and there are tons, turn into rubberneckers on the final Thursday of June. It truly is the strangest, most awkward yet thrilling sports night of the year.

For those of us who are inclined to rank all things NBA slightly ahead of breathing in importance, the draft is both a fitting conclusion to the season and a perfect beginning to the next. Within this demented group of true believers rests the Fantasy Basketball Owner, an odd sort of fellow with a knack for analysis and, most of the time, the vertical leap of a standard sheet of eight-and-half-by-11-inch copy paper.

Yes, we love the draft. We can't get enough of David Stern smirking at the podium. We savor the collision of worlds between college and pro. We can't wait to see how it all plays out.

But does the draft matter in the world of fantasy? Looking at recent trends, not much. An analysis of the last 10 NBA drafts reveals a surprisingly low number of players who made significant, year-long fantasy contributions. From 1999 to 2008, just 29 first-round picks would go on to average 30 or more minutes per game as a rookie:

NUMB ONE: Clippers president Andy Roeser gloats at the 2009 NBA Draft Lottery. Now that Blake Griffin is going to be a Clip, there's nobody in the upcoming draft guaranteed to have a good rookie season. Photo Credit Icon SMI

2008: Derrick Rose (37.0), O.J. Mayo (38.0), Russell Westbrook (32.5), Eric Gordon (34.3), Brook Lopez (30.5)

2007: Kevin Durant (34.6), Al Horford (31.4)

2006: Brandon Roy (35.4)

2005: Chris Paul (36.0), Ray Felton (30.1)

2004: Dwight Howard (32.6), Emeka Okafor (35.6), Andre Iguodala (32.8)

2003: LeBron James (39.5), Carmelo Anthony (36.5), Chris Bosh (33.5), Dwyane Wade (34.9), Kirk Hinrich (35.6)

2002: Amare Stoudemire (31.3), Caron Butler (36.6)
         
2001: Pau Gasol (36.7), Jason Richardson (32.9), Shane Battier (39.7), Jamaal Tinsley (30.5)

2000: Kenyon Martin (33.4)

1999: Elton Brand (37.0), Steve Francis (36.1), Lamar Odom (36.4), Ron Artest (31.1)

That's an average of less than three first-rounders per year, and many of the above players ended up playing due to desperation on the part of the teams that took them.

The 2008-09 season saw a number of rookies rise to fantasy relevance rather quickly, but how many of them earned a spot in a fantasy lineup every week? Rose and Mayo certainly did, and Westbrook, Lopez and Gordon eventually joined them as reliable options. The key word there was eventually, because unless the rookie is a special talent, so many things have to fall into place for them to shine right away. For Westbrook, it took a coaching change and full-on youth movement in Oklahoma City. For Lopez, it was a weak Nets frontcourt. For Gordon, it was a wave of injuries for the Clippers.

The season did turn out to be somewhat of a bounty for fantasy rookies. Mario Chalmers (who averaged 32.0 minutes after getting picked in the second round) and Kevin Love were sturdy performers for much of the season, and players such as D.J. Augustin, Courtney Lee, Anthony Randolph, Marreese Speights, Jason Thompson, JaVale McGee and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute were popular waiver claims and periodic fill-ins.

By no means would we suggest ignoring rookies, but Michael Beasley, the No. 2 pick behind Rose, was many a prognosticator's pick for the top fantasy rookie a year ago. Beasley proved not ready for consistent production and averaged just 13.9 points, 5.4 rebounds and 24.8 minutes per game.

The trend isn't hard to figure out: Life as an NBA rookie is damn hard. Even this year's "sure thing", Oklahoma's Blake Griffin, can't be counted on entirely because he'll be banished to the Clippers, the NBA's version of seeing a black cat. Good luck, Blake; go with the high-end insurance. After Griffin, it seems the situation will have to be nearly perfect for anyone to make a huge fantasy dent. Hasheem Thabeet is intriguing because rotogeeks are always pining for shot blockers, but the rest of the lottery looks to be littered with smallish point guard prospects whose heads will be spinning a la Linda Blair in The Exorcist by the midway point of their first practice.

Meanwhile, a plethora of second-year players emerged from the 2007 draft as fantasy options. Living, breathing examples of how a player needs at least a year to get his footing, '07 first-round selections Mike Conley, Jeff Green, Joakim Noah, Spencer Hawes, Thaddeus Young, Al Thornton, Rodney Stuckey, Wilson Chandler, and Aaron Brooks rebounded from middling rookie seasons and are suddenly making a once-weak 2007 class a fantasy bumper crop. Most will be taken in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts next year and be weekly contributors.

And so we're back to last year's rookies. Who is ready to take the next step? A guy like Anthony Randolph enters next year with the proverbial Sleeper tag pinned on him. Beasley is sure to take a step forward and could be dangerous if he learns to guard anyone. D.J. Augustin is going to be a good fantasy player in short time, and Jason Thompson will team with Hawes as part of a formidable frontcourt in Sacramento.

Playing time and free agent movement is the biggest factor in the futures of the surprising Mbah a Moute and Memphis forward Darrell Arthur. JaVale McGee is likely a big part of Washington's future plans, and Courtney Lee could really see a bump in value should the Magic lose Hedo Turkoglu. Speights' fortunes are likely tied to the health of Elton Brand, but he showed he could hang in the NBA. Also knocking on the door are '08 first-round picks Brandon Rush, Ryan Anderson and George Hill. Not a bad class, especially when you throw in highly-productive foreign rookies Marc Gasol and Rudy Fernandez.

Fantasy hoops junkies should sit back with a few cold ones and enjoy the draft on June 25 without too much worry. Instead, study the up-and-coming second and third year players to establish your sleepers. Don't fall in love with ESPN's Ricky Rubio highlight package, however tempting. Rookies who aren't sure bets are best left to owners smitten by the Next Big Thing.

Hopefully this year's draft will bring the requisite dramedy in the combination of shocking trades and tacky suits. The free agent sweepstakes will kick into gear in July, and by then we'll start really planning our fantasy draft prep. Because let's be honest: that's the one draft that matters. This one is just for fun, so by all means: Enjoy it.

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Jeff Andriesse can't wait for the 2009 NBA Draft to wash over him. If, like him, you can't look away, email him your thoughts on this year's rookies to jeff@rotoexperts.com.

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