Every now and then I run across a statistic that truly amazes me. The latest example happened as I was scanning the highest season K/BB rates in history (courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com).

Most of the names near the top were expected: Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, etc. But then my eye wondered down to No. 14 on the list and it is none other than the amazing(ly overpaid) Carlos Silva. That’s right, Carlos Silva has the 14th-highest single-season K/BB rate in history. All of history. I hardly believe it. Silva has a better K/BB season on the books than Randy Johnson. A better one than Roy Halladay. Heck, he has a better K/BB season than Cy Young!

Tampa Bay’s Scott Kazmir has been bad so far in 2009 but there are certain signs that point to a rebound. Photo Credit: Googie man

First, yes this is the same Silva we all know and love; there wasn’t some other good Carlos Silva in the 1800’s.

Second, I hope you don’t need to hear this, but here it goes anyway: This doesn’t mean Silva is good. He accomplished this feat by walking just nine batters in 188.1 innings. That is truly impressive. Of course, he only struck out 71 in those same 188.1 innings which is not so impressive.

So no matter how often baseball fans and experts clamor about his outrageous contract, just remember Silva always has that one magical K/BB season feather in his cap.

I think it’s safe to say that season has been the highlight for Silva, unless you’re really into high ERA’s. Career paths can change quickly. Things started well and got ugly for Silva, while many pitchers that look terrible right now will actually be quite useful over the remainder of the season.

Here are a few guys who look like they can get better this season.

• Scott Kazmir

We already know cashmere can cause problems - look no further than a certain discount white cashmere sweater with a particular red dot on Seinfeld - but who knew Kazmir could also cause issues? With a 7.59 ERA, a DL stint and a messy 5.72 BB/9, Scott Kazmir has certainly been the root of problems for owners who drafted him this season.
The reasons for Kazmir’s fall are simple: He’s been too easy for opposing batters to hit and he’s walked too many batters.
Hitters were teeing off on his fastball before he went on the DL largely because Kazmir didn’t have his velocity right. His fastballs averaged 91.7 mph last year and just 89.6 this year. He clearly knew his fastball wasn’t right and he began shying away from it. He tossed the pitch 75.3% of the time last year and just 64.3% of the time this year. His fastball must be right in order for him to avoid hits, let alone pile up the strikeouts.
His faltering control does raise a big red flag because it seems to be getting worse as he develops. His BB/9 currently stands at 5.72, the highest of his walk-challenged career. As it turns out, it’s hard to avoid walking batters when you’re throwing nearly two out of every five pitches as a ball. His ball percentage is 39.8 this season. It was 36.7% last year and while that may not seem like a huge jump, it’s about three balls per game which has an impact.
Regardless, I’m high on Kazmir because he has a proven ability to strike batters out, and his rehab start shows he may have tamed his control, at least for now.

• Francisco Liriano

Liriano doesn’t have the stuff he had before his surgery. Accept it and move on. This is not the same arm that posted a 12.55 K/9 and a 13.3 O-Contact% (percentage of pitches batters made contact with outside of the strike zone).
This is one of the two points that are driving Liriano’s value into the dumpster. The fact that fantasy owners continue to expect him to be the same pitcher he was in 2006. The other point is that he just hasn’t pitched very well in 2009.
The reason I like Liriano as an addition is I think he can get better as he puts more and more distance between the surgery and the present. Not only does he get healthier, he learns to accept that he is a different pitcher and approaches the game accordingly.
His velocity fell off the shelf when he returned from injury. His fastballs averaged 94.7 mph and his sliders averaged 87.7 mph in 2006. In 2008, they averaged 90.9 and 83.7 respectively. Recently there are signs of recovery. His slider is all of the way back up to 86.0 mph this season and his fastball has bumped up slightly, to 91.5 mph.
If you’re worried about his ERA (at 5.88 worries are certainly warranted), think about it this way: His HR/9 is 1.31 this year. That’s up from 0.83 last year. With similar fly ball rates, the difference in homers is likely just luck. If a few of those flys had fallen just short of the fence like last season his ERA would look much better.
His K/9 is still good at 8.06 and the only real concern for me is his walks (4.35 BB/9). His arm strength is starting to come back. I would get him now from an unsure owner.

• David Price

• A.J. Burnett

I really don’t understand why fantasy owners are disgruntled with Burnett’s performance so far. What did you think you were getting with this guy?
His ERA stands at 4.24 and his K/9 is 8.48. At this point last year his ERA was 5.07. Burnett pitched much better in the second half last season. He is what he is and for the last three years that means an ERA right around 4.00, plus a very good K/9 when the season is done.
Play up his ERA as disappointing and the fact that he pitches in the Yankee’s new offensive stadium (don’t actually worry, he is holding lefties to a .222 batting average this year, so he is minimizing the damage) and acquire him. I’d value him more highly in roto leagues since his occasional really bad starts can ruin a matchup in weekly leagues.

NOTES:

• Joel Pineiro continues to impress. He leads the majors in GB% at 61.3 and the secret to his success is as simple as that. Against the Mets on Tuesday, he got 22 groundouts. It’s tough to score runs on a guy when you can’t get the ball out of the infield. He still doesn’t provide strikeouts, but I’m starting to believe in his ability to be useful in fantasy leagues.
  
  
• So who is the Bizarro Pineiro? That would be Ted Lilly, who leads the league with his 54.1 FB%. Lilly has long been a fly ball guy, but this is the highest rate of his career by five percent. That said, his HR/9 is perfectly in line with his career rates and his ERA still stands at 3.04. I say he can keep it up, even though it’s unconventional. The biggest outlier for Lilly is his walks. His BB/9 of 1.96 is the best of his career. Is this a new and improved Lilly?
  
  
• Unsurprisingly, considering his high K totals, Javier Vazquez has the lowest CT% in the majors at 71.8. The gap between him and second place (Max Scherzer) is the same between Scherzer and the guy seventh on the list (Felix Hernandez), so it’s safe to safe Vazquez has been pretty impressive so far. I have a hard time believing he can maintain his pace, but fantasy owners should enjoy the ride while it lasts. The way he’s pitching is reminiscent of his Expo days.
  
  
• Felix Hernandez and Jarrod Washburn have both been good overall, but they’ve been much better with Rob Johnson behind the plate instead of Kenji Johjima. There’s no hope of Johjima and his bulky contract getting traded, but hopefully the Mariners will come to their senses and realize Johnson makes the pitching staff better. If they do, give Hernandez and Washburn a boost in value.
  
  
• Good news for Scott Baker believers: He might be in line to get better. He’s got the lowest LOB% in the majors at 62.0. His rate was 78.7% last year and it’s 71.6% in his career. He still gives up the long ball too often, but if he can strand a few more of those runners his ERA (5.22) should move closer to his FIP (4.31).

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Adam welcomes questions, input and, begrudgingly, the occasional hate e-mail at amcfadden@rotoexperts.com.

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