Tom:  Brad, has it been 50 games already?  It seems like just yesterday that Manny Ramirez was caught taking women’s fertility drugs, one similar to what Barry Bonds and Jason Giambi used a few years back.  I assume Ramirez was just trying to expand the size of his already hefty dome.  While Manny was kicking back in L.A., the Dodgers decided to replace him and his 533 career homers with Juan Pierre, whose head could fit in Manny’s breast pocket and who has hit a modest 13 career HRs over a ten year span.  I have to admit that I do have a soft side and I feel a bit sorry for Juan Pierre who has exceeded all expectations since Manny was told to sit on his fanny.  Pierre is hitting .337 with 24 RBI, 35 R, and 17 SB.  Oh, and he plays defense!  Yet now that Manny is making his minor league tour, and essentially enacting a 50 game suspension to Juan Pierre for showing up and playing the game the only way he knows how to play – naturally.  Manny will get the same treatment that Alex Rodriguez got when he made his return to the Yankees lineup.  At home, he’ll be cheered (as long as he continues to be Manny), while on the road he’ll be jeered and mocked.  It’s hard to argue against shouting obscenities at Manny, and I suppose you, Brad, have a few gems up your sleeve.  How do you think Manny would be received in a place like Wrigley Field after this debacle, Brad?    

Tom and Brad both think that Scott Rolen is a safe bet this year.  Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Brad: Tom, I am a top-notch heckler. I don't think that surprises anybody. Many a day have I sat first row in the bleachers and heckled the opposing left-fielder. If that were Manny, I'd surely have a few zingers to throw his way. Speaking of Juan Pierre's defense, is it his noodle arm that impresses you the most. I'm sure Mrs. Lorenzo could throw it to third harder and more accurate than Pierre. I was going to use you as an example, but I'm not in a very generous mood today. Right now I'm more concerned with my boy David Price and whether or not he will be in the Rays rotation much longer. He's been dreadful lately and although he's striking people out, the guy can't get out of the fifth inning. He clearly needs to understand that his stuff is good enough to get major leaguers out on a consistent basis. Once he comprehends this, and stops trying to strike everybody out, we will have a much better pitcher on our hands. Tom, I'm in a debating mood. I hear you have a thing for aging veterans. Care to give us one example?

SCOTT ROLEN, 3B, TOR
.330 AVG, 77 H, 40 R, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 3 SB

Not since the 2006 season have we seen Scott Rolen put up reasonable, fantasy-worthy statistics.  In his second season with the Blue Jays, Rolen might have finally found his stroke, posting a 13 game hitting streak dating back to June 5.  Can Scottie keep on rollin’, or is there is DL stint in the near future with his name on it?

Tom:  I’ll admit, Brad, that I’ve always disliked (hate is a strong word) Scott Rolen.  A lot of it has to do with the fact that as a Mets fan I watched Rolen put up All-Star-like numbers as a Phillie in the late 90’s, and then watched him celebrate as part of the Cardinal team that broke my heart in the ’06 NLCS.  That being said, it is my job to analyze each player objectively.  Scott Rolen as a fantasy option at third base?  You betcha!  We know that Rolen has the pedigree, and when healthy he’s been good for 40 doubles, 25 homers, and 100 runs-batted-in.  This season, he’s on pace to hit 20 homers, knock in 100 runs, and rack up an astonishing 60 doubles.  Just look at Rolen’s last 12 games: .490 AVG, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 12 R, 24 H, 1 SB, and just 4 K.  You’re not seeing big power numbers out of Rolen, but he does have two home runs in his last six and I think a power surge is long overdue.  If you’re looking for a corner-infielder, Rolen is available in 65 percent of Yahoo! leagues and without a doubt a Mother Lode in my book.  Brad, tell me there’s a better third base option out on the wires.         

Brad: Hold on, Tom. Let me check the waiver wire. Here are the third baseman owned in 35 percent of leagues I'd rather have than Rolen: none. I'd love to argue against a .332 hitter with 39 runs and 25 RBI, but I can't. I'd like a few more ribbies and more than five homers, but that average is ridiculous. It's sure to change considering his BABIP is an unsustainable .360, almost 50 points higher than his career average of .314. He's striking out much less this season (11.8 K%) compared to normal, and he's hitting line drives more than he ever has. Apparently he's healthy, which is always concern numero uno with Rolen, but predicting injuries is pretty tough to do. It's ridiculous that he's still available in 35 percent of leagues, considering third base is an extremely thin position this season. He's 13th amongst third baseman in runs scored, 10th in hits and third in average. The Jays offense is pretty consistent so I can't see any way around calling Rolen a Mother Lode. That is, until he gets hurt. 

ANDREW MCCUTCHEN, OF, PIT
.322 AVG, 28 H, 13 R, 1 HR, 16 RBI, 3 SB

McCutchen’s name has been tossed around as one of baseball’s brightest young stars for what seems like years now. Many thought he would contribute at the start of the year, but Nyjer Morgan’s emergence stalled that plan. It wasn’t until Nate McLouth got shipped off to Hotlanta that the Bucs finally called up their beloved prospect and he hasn’t disappointed since. Can he maintain this streak of production? 

Brad: I’ll be honest with you, Tom, I have a thing for speed. I love all the Fast and Furious movies. I order Jimmy John’s subs. I prefer girls who don’t like to take things ‘slow’ (Tom probably doesn’t understand this reference). What really gets me going though, is a prospect who can steal a base. McCutchen, with eight triples and 10 steals in 49 Triple-A games prior to his call-up, fits the bill. In 17 games since joining the Pirates, McCutchen has only two steals, but there’s no questioning his presence on the basepaths. His minor league numbers don’t support his .333 average, considering the highest he hit was .313 during a short Triple-A stint in 2007. A .397 BABIP suggests he’s been getting a bit lucky, but players with his type of speed tend to have a higher BABIP than most. We should see more steals once McCutchen gets comfortable at the big league level, where he’s walking an unusually low 4.8 percent of his at-bats. This number has been closer to 8-10 percent throughout his career. So, his average should finish around .280 and he will steal close to 20 bags. Is that worth a gamble? Absolutely. At the very least, McCutchen will provide Mother Lode steal numbers, with a potential for solid runs and average numbers. 

Tom: I’ve always heard of guys thinking about baseball when they are trying to keep themselves from getting “overly excited” in an intimate setting, but thinking about a prospect who can steal a base in order to get yourself going, Brad? To each his own. I like steals as much as the next guy, but I’m reluctant to rely on McCutchen for them, especially if he’s only on pace to snag 20 this season. That would mean, first, that McCutchen would have to learn how to run the basepaths. I’m struck by the fact that in a full season in Triple-A, the Indianapolis Indians let him loose on the basepaths and he racked up 34 steals. He also got caught stealing 19 times. He essentially got caught once every three attempts. At that rate you’re better off with a guy like Denard Span who has a better OBP and runs potential than McCutchen, while also on pace for 20-plus steals from here on out. I’d be crazy to discount McCutchen’s potential, but it’s just that, as I don’t like to “pay” for saves, I also don’t like to use up a roster spot in the outfield on a guy who is only going to net me 15-18 steals the rest of the way. McCutchen is Fool’s Gold this year, but he has a ton of potential.

RANDY WOLF
96.1 IP, 3 W, 70 K, 3.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

Wolf has been passed around the majors like a bad STD these past few seasons, but he’s found a home in Los Angeles where he’s pitching for baseball’s best team (record-wise) and in one of baseball’s best pitcher’s parks. His 3.29 ERA is closing in on the best mark of his career and his 1.15 WHIP is his best since 2002. Taking all this into account, is there any reason not to like Wolf going forward? 

Brad: How is it that an aging veteran with his worst strikeout percentage since 2004 is having one of his best season’s as a pro? Wolf has a few key factors working in his favor. First, he’s walking fewer batters (2.71 BB/9) than he has in four years. Wolf’s career BB/9 is 3.32 and he’s been above that number for the last three seasons. Second, Wolf has an extremely fortunate BABIP of .260. The best way to analyze BABIP is to compare it to years past, and Wolf’s been over .300 since 2005. His career BABIP is .297, meaning many more balls are finding gloves than Wolf is typically accustomed to. The final factor, and one related to his BABIP is an opponent’s batting average of .231. So, in summary, Wolf is striking out less people, but relying on his defense to bail him out of a few jams. I do like Wolf this year, and I think he has an opportunity to strike out close to 160 batters and get 12-14 wins. If he keeps his ERA in the 3.00’s, which is possible, I can’t consider him anything other than the Mother Lode. 

Tom:  It’s hard to argue against Randy Wolf this year especially since if I told you in the beginning of the season Wolf would have three wins, an ERA in the mid-3.00’s, and a WHIP near 1.20 after his first 15 starts you probably wouldn’t argue against me.  At the same time, if I told you he would have three wins, a 4.50 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP you also would shrug our shoulders and say “sure, why not?”  Wolf is what he is.  A mediocre pitcher who keeps his teams in games and who can go out there and possibly toss a gem as a reward to fantasy owners who took the plunge.  He also can go out and, as he’s shown of late, contribute very little in terms of fantasy production.  Take the fact that he hasn’t won a game since May 28 (five starts) and hasn’t struck out more than four batters in that same timeframe.  Five straight starts, zero wins, and an average of 3.2 strikeouts – I’m not sure what you call that in Wisconsin, Brad, but out here on the east coast we call that Fool’s Gold.  I’ll admit that his 70 strikeouts in 96 innings is a fine fantasy statistic, but the way he’s trending right now I wouldn't want to count on him to produce every five days. 

KEVIN CORREIA, SP/RP, SD
80.1 IP, 4 W, 61 K, 27 BB, 4.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

In his seventh season in the big leagues, Correia has already tied his single-season best with four victories.  Correia’s picked up three of those victories in his last four starts posting just two walks in his last 28 innings and striking out 20 batters.  The weather in San Diego is hot, Megan Fox is hot, but are Tom and Brad hot for Correia? 

Tom:  I have to admit, I have a penchant for jumping on a pitcher and riding out his hot streak.  Though, as Brad will surely note, I tend to get excited about a pitcher just as he’s hurtling back to earth.  Looking at his numbers I’m drawn toward his WHIP, which can be attributed to his 3.0 BB/9 rate. That is just a notch above his career-best (2.8).  His 6.8 K/9 is about where he’s sat over his seven-year career.  So, you can expect him to keep striking out five batters per outing.  The wins, though, have not come cheap – OAK, LAD, and ARI.  I don’t suspect, however, that the Padres will buckle down and provide more than another five-to-six wins for Correia, and I can’t picture him out-pitching his opposition in the NL West.  I like a hot pitcher as much as the next guy, but I’m not sure I accept that Correia a worthy addition in mixed leagues.  In NL leagues?  Yeah, I can see owners riding him out as a spot-start until his true colors start showing once again.  I’ll pass on Kevin Correia.  He’s Fool’s Gold as far as I’m concerned.  Brad, Megan Fox is pretty hot, isn’t she?      

Brad: You think I've watched Transformers over 10 times because of Shia LeBeouf? The answer is yes, but I do want to do dirty things to Megan Fox. Alright, I need to get my mind out of the gutter. Kevin Correia. Alright. That 1.26 WHIP is pretty impressive, isn't it Tom? Here's why I think he can sustain that. His 3.02 BB/9 is almost a walk lower than what it was last year and his best since 2006. This year, Correia is throwing less fastballs and focusing on his slider and curve. The result is opponents batting only .246 against him and his BABIP is sitting at a maintainable .282. Another attribute to his success is pitching his home games in PETCO Park, one of baseball's best pitcher's parks. Correia's 4.26 ERA may scare people off, but it isn't so frightening if you look at his June numbers. In five starts he is 3-2 with a 2.90 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 25 Ks to only five walks. He's clearly coming into his own and I believe he's a Mother Lode acquisition in mixed leagues. Time to pop in Transformers, Tom. Talk to you next week. 

*All stats as of 06/24/09

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Brad and Tom are just two guys who like to yuck it up from time to time.  Send a hearty quip their way at BRysz@rotoexperts.com and Lorenzo@rotoexperts.com. 

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